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Coinbase Earnings Pain Likely as Retail Activity Slumps, Wall Street Analysts Warn

Coinbase (COIN) is heading into its first-quarter earnings report on shaky ground, with four Wall Street analysts expecting a miss as the retail trading lull is likely to pressure the crypto exchange’s most profitable business lines.
The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Thursday post-market. The analysts are projecting earnings per share (EPS) falling to $1.93 from $2.26 in the fourth quarter and revenue dropping to $2.1 billion from $2.27 billion, according to FactSet data.
In the year-earlier first quarter, it reported EPS of $4.40 and revenue of $1.2 billion. Trading volume is expected to land around the $403.8 billion mark vs. $439 billion in the fourth quarter.
J.P. Morgan cut its EPS estimate to $1.59, citing a 10% drop in Coinbase’s trading volume and a 17% slide in total crypto market cap during the quarter. Adjusted for crypto asset losses, they see EPS at $2.39, supported in part by controlled expenses and steady subscription revenue.
Barclays and Compass Point see deeper trouble. Barclays slashed its revenue and EBITDA forecasts, saying the market has cooled sharply since January despite stablecoin growth. It pegs retail volumes at $69 billion, significantly below the Street’s mean estimate of $79.8 billion.
Compass Point, more bearish still, downgraded the stock to sell, projecting transaction revenue of $1.24 billion, 7% below the consensus. It argues that Coinbase is losing retail share to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and warns of further pain in the second quarter.
Popular trading platform Robinhood, last week, reported a 13% drop in transaction-based revenue from the fourth quarter as markets cooled in the first three months of the year.
Stablecoins to the rescue?
The one area of optimism: stablecoins.
Coinbase’s revenue from USDC surged as the stablecoin’s market cap climbed 42% during the quarter, helping bolster subscription revenue. Barclays estimates $304 million in first-quarter USDC-related revenue, and even the skeptics at Compass Point acknowledge this helped offset falling staking income due to the slide in ether’s price.
Oppenheimer cut its volume forecast to $380 billion from $440 billion, but noted that Coinbase gained U.S. spot trading market share. That’s a positive sign, but one that may not matter if retail traders keep sitting on their hands.
There’s also growing concern about longer-term competitive pressures. Analysts noted that decentralized exchanges — especially those operating on faster and cheaper blockchains like Solana and Coinbase’s own Base — are drawing in retail users looking to trade a wider array of tokens. While Coinbase’s U.S. market share is up, its dominance as a centralized, regulated exchange may not be enough to fend off this shift.
Looking ahead, analysts caution that a near-term rebound in trading may be slow to materialize, especially with retail traders often hesitant to re-enter the market until they recoup earlier losses.
Shares of Coinbase are down 23% year-to-date, trading at $198.06, while bitcoin is up 3.8% since the beginning of the year at $97,023.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Coinbase Buys Deribit for $2.9B

Coinbase has agreed to pay $2.9 billion to buy bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options platform Deribit, according to a press release, marking its official push into the highly profitable crypto derivatives market in the U.S.
The crypto exchange, alongside competitor Kraken, had been in talks to buy Deribit for months, with Bloomberg reporting that options giant could be valued at $4 billion to $5 billion.
Kraken, instead, purchased U.S. futures platform Ninja Trader for $1.5 billion, allowing the exchange to compete with Coinbase in offering futures and derivatives in the U.S.
Coinbase’s acquisition comes after what has been a busy year in crypto dealmaking as companies are positioning themselves in what U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to become the “crypto capital of the world.”
The deal with Deribit includes $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase Class A common stock, according to the companies, making it one of the largest deals in the industry.
“We’re excited to join forces with Coinbase to power a new era in global crypto derivatives,” Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said in a statement.
“As the leading crypto options platform, we’ve built a strong, profitable business, and this acquisition will accelerate the foundation we laid while providing traders with even more opportunities across spot, futures, perpetuals, and options – all under one trusted brand. Together with Coinbase, we’re set to shape the future of the global crypto derivatives market,» Strijers.
Founded in 2016, Deribit has quickly taken over market share for digital asset options trading. The exchange processed $1.2 trillion in volume in 2024, a 95% year-over-year increase, the company had reported in January.
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Much-Awaited Fed Rate Cut May Not Come Before Q4, ING Says

The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates any time soon, but when it does, the easing could be aggressive, according to Dutch investment bank ING.
On Wednesday, the Fed kept the benchmark rate on hold between 4.25% and 4.5%, with Chairman Jerome Powell raising the specter of stagflation during the press conference following the announcement.
Both crypto and traditional markets looked to Powell for cues on a potential rate cut in June. ING points to his comments that «uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased» and the «risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen» as evidence the wait-and-watch mode could last for a couple more meetings.
The comments suggest «little inclination to move until they are confident of the direction the data is heading, meaning rate cuts could be delayed, but risk being sharper when they come,» ING said in a note to clients.
The investment bank said the wait-and-see stance could «persist through to September.»
The bank the Fed’s reticence to act is probably due to concerns that trade war and supply disruptions at ports and logistics firms could amplify inflation.
Bitcoin has rallied from $96,000 to $99,5000 since Wednesday’s Fed decision, with President Donald Trump’s tease of a trade deal with a major economy helping restore the risk sentiment.
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Stripe Unveils Payments Products Powered by ‘Gale-Force Tailwind’ Stablecoins

Stripe is ramping up its stablecoin capabilities, expanding the provision for businesses to receive and hold payments on cryptocurrency rails.
Following on from Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge, the San Francsico-based payments giant has unveiled a new money management service powered by stablecoins.
Stablecoin Financial Accounts will enable businesses to hold a balance in stablecoins and distribute them anywhere in the world, Stripe announced on Thursday.
At its annual event Sessions, CEO Patrick Collison described stablecoins along with AI as «not one, but two, gale-force tailwinds, well off the Beaufort scale, dramatically reshaping the economic landscape around us.»
“We’re building programmable financial services to make money as easy to manipulate and manage with code as data is,” Will Gaybrick, Stripe’s president of product and business, added.
Stripe recently said it was preparing a new stablecoin payments pilot aimed at companies based outside the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Free from the volatility that remains inherent to cryptocurrencies like BTC, stablecoins have been flagged as a potential breakout use case for blockchain technology. Citi predicted that the sector could grow to a $3.7 trillion market cap by 2030, which would constitute a 15-fold growth from its current cap of around $242 billion.
Read More: Visa Doubles Down on Stablecoins With Investment in Blockchain Payments Firm BVNK
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