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Crypto Daybook Americas: Powell Will Set the Tone While Markets Eye Asia Battles, Trade

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5 дней ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It’s Federal Open Market Committee day in the U.S., and while there’s little expectation of a change in interest rates, the market’s attention will be focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the FOMC’s press conference.

The CME’s FedWatch tool is pointing to a 97.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged and Polymarket traders are weighing a 98.3% chance, so it’s the outlook that will take center stage.

Spanish bank Bankinter said in a note that a potential rally attempt for risk assets would for now be “naive,” pointing to indicators showing main U.S. ports are seeing a reduction in containers from China, while Powell is “likely to strike a chilly tone on both future cuts and the inflation cycle.”

“We are entering a phase of unclear direction, probably sideways but with a weakening bias that may last for several weeks,” Bankinter analysts wrote.

Adding to the cautionary tone is the military flare-up between India and Pakistan. India’s “Operation Sindoor’ kicked off during Asian hours with strikes in parts of Pakistan, which has vowed to retaliate.

Still, spot gold retreated more than 1.7% as traders took an optimistic stance on a U.S.-China trade deal and cryptocurrency prices are rising after New Hampshire became the first state to allow the investment of public funds into crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) has added 3% in the past 24 hours and the broader crypto market, as measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.57%. That’s in contrast with equity markets, which fell Tuesday.

It’s still too early to say whether markets will focus more on the need for safe havens as international belligerence ramps up, or on the desire to lock in a bit more volatility as trade tensions ease. One possible signal: The largest bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted greater net inflows than the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), since the start of the year.

Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade went live, the network’s biggest upgrade since 2022. The upgrade includes 11 major improvement proposals (EIPs), but whether it can reverse ETH’s decline against BTC remains to be seen.

Year-to-date, ether has lost around 47% of its value to the leading cryptocurrency, with the ETH/BTC ratio now sitting at 0.019. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
    • May 12, 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: A U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet» will be held at the SEC’s headquarters in Washington.
  • Macro
    • May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5%
    • May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
    • May 8, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 3.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 241K
    • May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11
    • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88
    • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10
    • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52
    • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $7.75 million.
    • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $47.82 million.
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.17 million.
    • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.13 billion.
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.74 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC and others.
    • May 8: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, KuCoin, Bitget and others.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN) and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • MOG Coin, an Ethereum and Base-based memecoin, is gaining traction on tech Twitter by fusing «mogging» (being better) with accelerationism (tech progress at all costs), birthing an internet-native ideology of mog/acc.
  • Technology entrepreneurs and investors such as Elon Musk and Garry Tan have joined the trend, switching their profile pics to Pit Viper sunglasses — a symbol of the mog/acc ideology — and Solana firms like Jupiter and Raydium have followed suit.
  • The mog/acc aesthetic is spreading fast thanks to viral tools like an auto-Pit Viper bot that converts profile pictures to the signature look of the movement.
  • Mog/acc differs from e/acc or d/acc by skipping intellectual or moral discourse and leaning into meme culture, performance and raw ambition as a form of techno-optimism.
  • Widespread adoption of mog/acc and the signature Pit Viper sunglasses could lead to increased mindshare for the MOG Coin token, which could boost demand and prices.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC and ETH annualized CME futures basis has retreated to 6% from 8%.
  • On offshore exchanges, BTC perpetual funding rates hold marginally positive while ETH’s funding rates have risen to near 10%, indicating renewed interest in taking bullish long bets.
  • On Deribit, BTC front-end skew flipped negative to suggest a bias for short-term puts. A block trade involved a large long position in the $90K put expiring on May 16.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.11% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $96.997.82 (24hrs: +2.88%)
  • ETH is up 3.31% at $1,844.39 (24hrs: +2.51%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.18% at 2,749.824 (24hrs: +3.35%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bp at 2.955%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0006% (-0.6406% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.31% at 99.54
  • Gold is down 1.2% at $3,374.49/oz
  • Silver is down 1.29% at $32.76/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.14% at 36,779.66
  • Hang Seng closed +0.13% at 22,691.88
  • FTSE is down 0.32% at 8,569.76
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.2% at 5,252.95
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.95% at 40,829.00
  • S&P 500 closed -0.77% at 5,606.91
  • Nasdaq closed -0.87% at 17,689.66
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 24,974.72
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.94% at 2,517.04
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.325%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.53% at 5,657.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 19,984.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.5% at 41,123.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.19 (-0.12%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0190 (+1.28%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 897 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $51.79
  • Total Fees: 5.23 BTC / $494,601
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 142,100 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

ETH's price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • ETH’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency has exited the prolonged downtrend.
  • However, the sideways move past the trendline doesn’t quality as a bullish breakout and the lower high of $2,104 created on March 24 is the new level to beat for the bulls.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $385.60 (-0.24%), up 2.7% at $396 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $196.89 (-1.26%), up 1.88% at $200.60
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$25.90 (-2.3%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.15 (+0.46%), up 2.74% at $13.51
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.86 (-0.51%), up 3.05% at $8.10
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.99 (+2.74%), up 2.22% at $9.19
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.09 (+0.0%), up 2.6% at $8.30
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.54 (+1.96%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.09 (-1.46%), up 4.2% at $34.48
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.48 (-4.36%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: -$85.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $40.54 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: -$17.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.50 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.46 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

BTC 1% market depth on Bybit. (Kaiko)

  • BTC’s 1% market depth on Bybit, the collection of buy and sell orders within 1% from the going price, has recovered to levels last seen before the exchange was hacked in February.
  • The recovery represents an improvement in the order book liquidity.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

The U.S. economy remains solid despite a negative GDP print in Q1. New Hampshire becomes the first U.S. state to pass a strategic $BTC reserve into law, authorizing the treasurer to purchase the world’s largest digital asset directly or through an ETP.Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has positioned 39.2% of the firm's top holdings into $MSTR. Probably nothing#China has decided to agree to engage with the #US side.Since April 16th, there has been $5.13B moved into collective BTC ETF's, pumping markets.

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Asia’s Biggest Corporate Bitcoin Holder Buys Another $126M in BTC

Published

46 минут ago

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12 мая, 2025

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Tokyo-listed investment firm Metaplanet has added another 1,241 bitcoin (BTC) to its treasury, spending 18.4 billion yen (or $126 million at currency exchange rates) in its latest purchase, per a Monday disclosure.

The acquisition brings Metaplanet’s total holdings to 6,796 BTC, worth over $706 million at current market prices. That has sent it above bitcoin-stacking nation El Salvador’s stash of 6,174 BTC, data from the country’s Bitcoin Office shows.

The purchase was made at an average price of just over $102,119 per bitcoin, marking the firm’s most aggressive buy yet since launching its Bitcoin Treasury Operations in April 2024.

The firm said its BTC Yield, a proprietary performance indicator measuring bitcoin accumulation per share outstanding, stood at 38% for Q2 to date, after reaching 95.6% in Q1 2025 and 309.8% in Q4 2024. This metric, along with BTC Gain and BTC yen Gain, is used to evaluate shareholder value creation through non-dilutive bitcoin growth.

Metaplanet aims to hit 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, with its treasury strategy increasingly mirroring the high-conviction accumulation playbook pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), which holds over 555,000 BTC globally.

Metaplanet remains the largest publicly traded bitcoin holder in Asia and ranks 11th globally, as of Monday.

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Ethereum Staking Giant Lido Loses Just 1.4 ETH in Hacking Attempt

Published

1 час ago

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12 мая, 2025

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Lido, Ethereum’s largest liquid staking protocol, avoided a major security incident after one of its nine oracle keys was compromised in what appears to be a low-impact but serious breach involving validator operator Chorus One.

Lido secures over 25% of all ETH staked on Ethereum, making it one of the most systemically important protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The compromised key was tied to a hot wallet used for oracle reporting, leading to the theft of just 1.46 ETH ($4,200) in gas fees. No user funds were affected, and no broader compromise was detected, per X posts from both Lido and Chorus One

Lido’s oracle system is a blockchain-based tool that supplies Ethereum consensus data to Lido’s smart contracts using a 5-of-9 quorum mechanism. This means that even if one or two keys are compromised, the system can function securely.

Contributors first detected the suspicious activity early Sunday after a low-balance alert triggered a closer look at the address. It revealed unauthorized access to an oracle private key used by Chorus One that was originally created in 2021 and not secured to the same standards as newer keys, the firm said in an X post.

In response, Lido has launched an emergency DAO vote to rotate the compromised oracle key across three contracts: the Accounting Oracle, the Validators Exit Bus Oracle, and the CS Fee Oracle. The new key has been generated using better security controls to avoid any repeat.

The hack occurred just as several other oracle operators were experiencing unrelated node issues, including a minor Prysm bug introduced by Ethereum’s recent Pectra upgrade, briefly delaying oracle reports on May 10.

The compromised address (0x140B) is being replaced by a new secure address (0x285f), with the on-chain vote already approved and in its 48-hour objection period as of Asian morning hours Monday.

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Bitcoin Eyes Record High Above $109K as U.S Reaches Trade Deal with China, Inflation Data Looms

Published

3 часа ago

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12 мая, 2025

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Bitcoin BTC could soon hit record price highs, triggering accelerated gains in the wider altcoin market, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions may see markets react positively to a potential slowdown in the April CPI due this week.

The United States has reached a trade agreement with China after two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday. Both countries are set to issue a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks later Monday.

The trade deal comes after weeks of a tit-for-tat trade war that saw both countries raise import tariffs above 100%, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. As such, the positive March U.S. consumer price inflation data released last month was largely dismissed by investors and analysts as a lagging metric that didn’t accurately reflect the escalating trade tensions.

The bears, however, cannot make that argument anymore, thanks to the trade deal.

So, a continued softening of CPI could raise Fed rate cut bets, providing a bullish catalyst for a BTC rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI could be dismissed as backwards-looking, reflecting the April tariffs and not accounting for the de-escalation in trade tensions.

The CPI due Tuesday is expected to show the cost of living eased to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March’s 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have stayed at 2.8% year-over-year in April, with continued moderation in rent inflation.

According to 10x Research, consensus is that the headline CPI likely held unchanged at 2.4% in April.

«If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs headline, this week’s week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst,» Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk.

«CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs,» Thielen added.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of hitting new highs above $109,350, CoinDesk data show.

BTC has had a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 since early April, with prices surging 10% last week due to continued inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating the data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell, however, offered dovish hints, saying «the underlying inflation picture is good,» while calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, the best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL surged 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20%, respectively.

According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, meaning the rally could continue.

«Implied volatility (IV) in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable,» HTX Research said.

«As long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger,» HTX added.

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