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Forecasting Fed-Induced Price Swings in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP

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It’s the Fed day again, and traders are seeking cues on how much volatility this key event might spark. According to Volmex’s implied volatility indices, major tokens could see price swings, but nothing out of the ordinary is anticipated.

According to data source TradingView, Volmex’s annualized one-day bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) stood at 49% as of writing, which equates to an expected 24-hour price swing of 2.56%.

In other words, bitcoin could swing by $2,470 in either direction. As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $96,500.

The expected daily volatility in percentage terms is determined by dividing the annualized percentage by the square root of 365, as the digital assets market is open 24/7. In traditional markets, conversion from annualized to daily involves the square root of 252 days.

As of writing, ETH’s annualized one-day volatility was 66%, suggesting a 24-hour price swing of 3.45%. Similarly, Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index suggested a 24-hour move of 4.3% in Solana’s SOL token.

Volmex doesn’t publish volatility indices tied to payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP. That said, the expected move in the token could be gauged from the forward implied volatility (IV) derived from options listed on Deribit.

The forward IV for May 8 was 77.98% at press time, according to data source Amberdata. That equates to a one-day expected move of 4.08%.

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 18:00 UTC, which will be followed by chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 18:30 UTC.

The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged, but commentary on the economic outlook against the trade war backdrop and possibility of a rate cut in June could move markets.

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Bitcoin Challenges $105K on Positive Weekend Macro Headlines

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They crypto bull move continued into the weekend thanks to a trio of positive macro developments.

Likely most responsible for the move was a President Trump Truth Social post regarding trade talks being held in Switzerland between the U.S. and China.

«A very good meeting today,» said Trump. «Many things discussed, much agreed to,» he continued. «A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner. We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!»

Earlier Saturday, Trump also announced a «full and immediate» ceasefire in the brewing war between India and Pakistan.

Completing the trio of good news, Russian President Putin said he was «in the mood for serious talks with Ukraine,» and suggested talks «without preconditions» in Turkey next week.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to just a few dollars short of $105,000 before pulling back to the current $104,500, ahead 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has continued its recent outperformance, up 7.7% over the same time frame.

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Lido Proposes a Bold Governance Model to Give stETH Holders a Say in Protocol Decisions

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Lido Finance, Ethereum’s largest liquid staking platform by locked value, has introduced a proposal that grants staked ether (stETH) holders direct voting power alongside existing DAO tokenholders.

The upgrade, dubbed Lido Improvement Proposal (LIP) 28, outlines a dual governance system allowing stETH holders — those who stake ETH via Lido and receive a liquid token in return — to participate in a veto mechanism on key protocol decisions. Currently, only holders of LDO, Lido’s governance token, have a say in how the protocol evolves.

Under the new system, stETH holders could veto certain proposals approved by LDO tokenholders, though the veto would not enable them to push proposals through unilaterally.

The proposed system is framed as a mechanism to increase accountability and decentralization, especially as Lido continues to dominate Ethereum’s staking landscape. Over 25% of all ETH is staked on the network running through its infrastructure.

How it works

The Dual Governance system adds a special timelock contract between Lido DAO’s decisions and their execution, giving stETH holders a way to intervene if they strongly oppose a proposal.

The «dynamic» time lock is necessary because it is how on-chain governance technically works behind the scenes.

In the current system, decisions don’t take effect right away, as there is a set period before they’re executed. That gives users time to react if they don’t agree with certain changes.

However, Ethereum staking is different because one can’t quickly unstake or withdraw ETH, even with the current timelock. It takes time, liquidity is complex, and there is often a queue that could take several days to clear.

The new proposal wants to tackle that.

The proposed dynamic timelock assumes that, as enough users, who aren’t satisfied with a proposed change, deposit their stETH (or wrapped stETH and withdrawal of NFTs) into a designated escrow contract for withdrawal, the timelock duration begins to increase — this is called crossing the “first seal” (set at 1% of total Lido ETH staked).

If discontent continues and deposits cross the “second seal” threshold (10% of Lido’s ETH TVL), a «rage quit» is triggered: execution of the DAO’s decision is completely blocked until all protesting stakers have had the chance to withdraw their ETH.

This creates a sort of safety valve — allowing stakers to signal objection and exit — while still giving the DAO time to respond or cancel the contentious action.

The plan comes as Ethereum has surged more than 30% over the past week, riding momentum from its Pectra upgrade, which introduced execution-layer reforms to improve scalability and efficiency.

The rally has sparked renewed attention on Ethereum-native applications like Lido, which is critical in capital flow and validator participation across the chain — and directly impacts ETH market structure.

The LIP-28 proposal is still in its discussion phase, with a formal on-chain vote expected in the coming weeks.

If approved, the change could shift how governance is distributed across Ethereum’s staking ecosystem, setting a precedent for other DeFi protocols seeking to include users, not just tokenholders, in decision-making. Lido’s other competitors include Rocket Pool and Frax Ether.

LDO prices have risen 6.5% in the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 Index, a broader market gauge, climbed 2.5%.

Read more: Ethereum Activates ‘Pectra’ Upgrade, Raising Max Stake to 2,048 ETH

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State of Crypto: Mapping Out the Senate Stablecoin Bill’s Next Steps

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House Republicans unveiled a discussion draft of a market structure bill but all eyes this week were on the Senate, where a largely bipartisan effort to advance stablecoin legislation ran up against a wall.

PS: I’ll be in Toronto next week for Consensus. In town? Come say hi.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

Unstable movement

The narrative

Stablecoin and market structure bills are the two big things around crypto that Congress is expected to get to President Donald Trump’s desk this year. There was a press conference by crypto and AI czar David Sacks with the chairs of the House and Senate committees. Everyone had this rough deadline of «before the August recess.»

Why it matters

Of these two bills, the stablecoin legislation was supposed to be the easier lift. It’s focused on just a part of the crypto sector, while the market structure bill will define how a much broader part of the industry operates and is overseen by federal regulators. And up until just over a week ago, the stablecoin bill was largely sailing through with few issues. Now — while it’s still expected to become law — the timing of its passage is far less certain.

Breaking it down

First thing’s first: No one this reporter has spoken to this week thinks the Senate’s stablecoin bill — the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — is dead. According to multiple individuals familiar with the situation, lawmakers were already back to negotiating after Thursday’s failed vote, and lawmakers could vote again as soon as next week — potentially even Monday.

Thursday’s vote failed after Democrats raised an alarm last weekend that certain provisions around national security, the soundness of the financial system and accountability, though Republicans argued that ongoing stablecoin usage requires swift passage. U.S. President Donald Trump’s profiting off of stablecoins also raised alarm bells for lawmakers, senators introducing multiple bills that would prevent the President from issuing financial assets, including the «End Crypto Corruption Act,» which would block all members of Congress, the president, vice president, other executive branch officials and their families from «issuing, endorsing or sponsoring crypto assets

On Wednesday, one individual told CoinDesk that it appeared that a deal might be in place so that Democrats would get a vote on the End Crypto Corruption Act, either as an amendment to the GENIUS Act or as a standalone bill, ahead of the procedural vote on the GENIUS Act itself.

This ultimately did not happen, with lawmakers proceeding directly to the so-called cloture vote on Thursday; it fell 48-49.

The vote did not fail on party lines either: though no Democrats voted in favor of the bill, Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul joined 46 Democrats in voting against the motion (Majority Leader John Thune initially voted in favor of the bill, but flipped in a procedural move that will let him bring the bill back for a vote later).

Among other issues was the fact that there was no bill text available at the time the vote kicked off.

The cloture vote, which would open 30 hours of debate, is likely the main piece of leverage Democrats have to try and get their priorities into the bill because it needs 60 Senators to pass. After the debate, there will be another cloture vote before the final passage vote, but it would be difficult for a lawmaker who voted to open debate to walk that back afterward, one of the individuals told CoinDesk.

Having their priorities sorted before getting to the final set of votes would also just generally provide more comfort to lawmakers, the individual said.

None of the individuals who spoke to CoinDesk expect that an actual provision blocking the U.S. President from issuing or being tied to an issuer of a stablecoin will become part of the final bill.

One of the individuals said ongoing negotiations are more focused on how foreign issuers are treated and anti-money laundering provisions.

A broader concern was that a hefty delay in passing the stablecoin legislation may slow down the process for advancing the market structure bill, which will rewrite the law around how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission oversee digital assets, including how cryptocurrencies might be defined as securities. A discussion draft was introduced in the House this week.

If the Senate votes on the stablecoin bill in the next week or so, it should not hold up the other bill, two individuals told CoinDesk.

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 050625

Tuesday

  • 10:00 a.m. ET (14:00 UTC) The House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees were scheduled to hold a joint hearing on digital asset market structure, but FSC Ranking Member Maxine Waters objected and instead held her own hearing on Trump’s crypto tie-ups.

Thursday

Elsewhere:

  • (404 Media) It turns out former National Security Advisor Michael Waltz was not using Signal, but rather an unofficial version called TeleMessage, which was then hacked and later suspended services temporarily.
  • (The San Francisco Standard) Jeffy Yu appeared to fake his own death to pump a memecoin, or something. The once late Yu is alive and kicking at his parents’ home, the San Francisco Standard reported.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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