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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Threatened by Regulation Hiccup, Weakening Demand

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9 часов ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market await the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, an anomaly has emerged that could weigh heavily on market mood: renewed doubt over the passing of U.S. crypto regulation.

Early Tuesday, CoinDesk reported that Senate Democrats are hesitant to push forward landmark stablecoin legislation, citing concerns over President Donald Trump’s growing personal gains from his crypto ventures.

When Trump took office, many observers felt crypto regulation would proceed smoothly. Looking back, that optimism was probably misplaced. With the president actively involved in digital assets through family-linked projects like WLFI and memecoins, opposition has mounted, potentially slowing the regulatory progress.

That might lead investors to reprice regulatory uncertainty just as charts for BTC and XRP are signaling pullback risks. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant, there are signs of renewed weakness in bitcoin demand from U.S.-based investors.

«Over the past month, the premium recovered significantly but is now dropping again — aligning with the recent BTC price correction,» CryptoQuant contributor AbramChart said.

On the positive side, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marked three straight days of net inflows.

Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham told crypto journalist Eleanor Terret that the derivatives market regulator plans to observe a handful of tokenization pilot programs to evaluate the technology and see how well tokenized assets function in the real world .

Speaking of traditional markets and macro, Taiwan dollar forward contracts signal extreme pressure on the U.S. dollar, meaning the greenback could continue to weaken against the Asian currency and probably major currencies like the euro. The broad-based USD weakness may act as a tailwind for crypto. FX market volatility could drive investors to gold and perhaps bitcoin, too, unless it leads to a broad-based risk-off, in which case BTC may feel the heat.

The other bullish development is the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that U.S. rates now carry sovereign credit risk and not just long-term growth and inflation expectations. In other words, rates are artificially high because the U.S. government itself is now the risk premium, as pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro said. So, a shift away from U.S. assets and into alternative investments could continue. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 6, 7:15 a.m.: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption.
    • May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
    • May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
  • Macro
    • May 6, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 52.6
      • Services PMI Prev. 52.5
    • May 6, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee joint hearing titled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: A Blueprint for the 21st Century.” Livestream link.
    • May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5%
    • May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
      • Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.08
    • May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11
    • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88
    • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10
    • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52
    • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.55% of its circulating supply worth $13.24 million.
    • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.97 million.
    • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $55.93 million.
    • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.97 million.
    • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.12 billion.
    • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.34 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC,and others.
    • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Tokens of some DeFi powerhouses are catching a bid as attention turns to fundamentals in a flat market.
  • Hyperliquid’s HYPE token surged 72% over the past week, outpacing most of the top 100 tokens. The platform’s gas-free, order book-based, decentralized exchange model is attracting traders seeking efficient and transparent trading environments.
  • AAVE has seen increased activity with the integration of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin into its V3 Ethereum Core Market. The move aims to bridge traditional finance with DeFi, enhancing AAVE’s appeal to institutional investors.
  • Despite a recent security breach on Curve Finance’s X account, CRV managed to post a 40% gain in the past week, demonstrating investor confidence in the underlying protocol.
  • Kay Lu, CEO of HashKey Eco Labs, said in a note to CoinDesk that traders are turning to projects with stronger fundamentals and token economics as memecoins fall out of favor.

Derivatives Positioning

  • XMR, TAO, ADA lead majors in 24-hour growth of perpetual futures open interest. XRP, meanwhile, has the most negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta, hinting at an influx of selling pressure.
  • BTC’s funding rate is barely positive, while ETH has flipped marginally negative, both pointing to weakening of bull momentum.
  • CME futures basis climbed to between 5% and 10%, reviving interest in cash-and-carry arbitrage trades, according to Binance Research.
  • Flows in the Deribit-listed options market have been mixed with May BTC calls and puts lifted.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $94,160 (24hrs: -0.18%)
  • ETH is down 1.09% at $1,795.10 (24hrs: -0.66%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.05% at 2,675.34 (24hrs: -0.96%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.964%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0046% (5.1147% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.14% at 99.69
  • Gold is up 1.99% at $3,379.76/oz
  • Silver is up 2.13% at $32.99/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +1.04% at 36,830.69
  • Hang Seng closed +0.7% at 22,662.71
  • FTSE is down 0.18% at 8,580.67
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.14% at 4,719.66
  • DJIA closed on Monday -0.24% at 41,218.83
  • S&P 500 closed -0.64% at 5,650.38
  • Nasdaq closed -0.74% at 17,844.24
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.31% at 24,953.52
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.15% at 2,493.86
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.36%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.74% at 5,629.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.05% at 19,845.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.61% at 41,067.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.91 (0.13%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01910 (-0.52%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 908 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $50.13
  • Total Fees: 5.10 BTC / $480,379.20
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 143,680 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 28.1 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 7.97%

Technical Analysis

VIRTUAL's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • VIRTUAL, the native token of the Base-native Virtuals Protocol for creating and owning AI agents, has established a base above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April sell-off.
  • The breakout means potential for a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $2.22.
  • VIRTUAL is the best-performing coin of the past 30 days.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $386.53 (-1.99%), down 1.25% at $381.68 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $199.40 (-2.7%), down 0.63% at $198.15
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.51 (-1.23%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.09 (-9.6%), down 1.22% at $12.93
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.90 (-5.84%), down 1.27% at $7.80
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.75 (+0.11%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.09 (-8.17%), down 0.62% at $8.04
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.26 (-4.74%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.58 (-7.13%), down 0.24% at $33.50
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.28 (-7.84%), up 0.51% at $41.49

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $425.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $40.63 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $0 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.53 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Volmex's BVIV or Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index. (TradingView)

  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has dropped to the lowest since July last year.
  • In other words, volatility is cheap, which is when seasoned traders typically prefer to buy options.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Our April 2025 stablecoin report is here. This month we feature non-USD stablecoinsMSTR movesBanger tweet*15* straight days of inflows into iShares Bitcoin ETF…Gold extends rally for second straight day, rising another +1.5%, and approaches $3,400/oz.

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CFTC Drops Appeal in Kalshi Election Betting Case

Published

2 часа ago

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6 мая, 2025

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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has dropped its appeal in its case against Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market, according to a Monday court filing, finally clearing the way for the platform to offer political event contracts.

Under the conditions of the motion for voluntary dismissal, which is still subject to court approval, both parties will pay their own legal costs and Kalshi waives any right to sue the CFTC for the litigation.

«Today is historic. We have always believed that doing things the right way, no matter how hard, no matter how painful, pays off. This result is proof of that,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement. “Kalshi’s approach has officially and definitively secured the future of prediction markets in America.»

Kalshi’s fight with the CFTC began in 2023, when the regulator denied Kalshi’s plan to let users bet on which party would control the chambers of Congress. At the time of the denial, the CFTC — then under the leadership of former Chair Rostin Behnam — claimed that such contracts involved unlawful gaming and were “contrary to the public interest.”

That November, Kalshi sued the CFTC in Washington, D.C., claiming that the CFTC had overstepped its authority in attempting to block the contracts, and asking a judge to vacate the decision. The court sided with Kalshi in September 2024, clearing the way for the platform to list the political contracts.

Immediately after losing the case, the CFTC scrambled to undo the district judge’s decision. It applied for a 14-day stay of the order — basically, a two-week delay on Kalshi’s ability to list the contracts while the CFTC prepared for an appeal — and was denied. Then, it filed an appeal, reiterating many of the same arguments it had used in its original defense.

However, shortly after oral arguments in early January, U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office. His eldest son, Don Jr., joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor on January 13. Rob Schwartz, the CFTC’s general counsel at the time the appeal was filed, left the agency in April after withdrawing from the case in March.

Under the leadership of acting Chair Caroline Pham, the agency has changed its approach to crypto, cutting several pieces of crypto-related guidance and narrowing down its once-wide variety of enforcement task forces down to just two, in an effort to simplify its regulation and enforcement of the crypto industry.

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New Hampshire Becomes First State to Approve Crypto Reserve Law

Published

3 часа ago

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6 мая, 2025

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New Hampshire has become the first state to allow the investment of its public funds into crypto assets with its governor signing the new law on Tuesday.

The state beat a number of others to the punch this year as what had started as a surge in state lawmaker momentum had run into roadblocks over recent weeks. As the first to authorize its treasurer to set up such a reserve, New Hampshire could very well beat the U.S. government in forming a stockpile, too.

«New Hampshire is once again first in the Nation,» New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who’s in her first year in office, posted on social media site X.

The New Hampshire bill allows the investment of up to 5% of public funds in a digital asset that has at least $500 billion in market capitalization, currently leaving bitcoin (BTC) as the only qualifying asset.

State House Republicans there also posted on X Tuesday, boasting that their state is «OFFICIALLY the first state to lay the groundwork for a strategic bitcoin reserve.»

«The Live Free or Die state is leading the way in forging the future of commerce and digital assets,» they wrote.

Though Arizona had been the first state to get a similar measure to its governor’s desk, that legislation was vetoed. Florida has also withdrawn its own effort, joining a number of other states where the reserve push has fizzled.

President Donald Trump had called for his administration to set up its own bitcoin reserve and a separate crypto stockpile, though the Treasury Department is still examining what the federal government has on hand that can be redirected into those eventual funds.

Read More: Trump’s Crypto Sherpa Bo Hines Says Crypto Legislation on Target for Quick Completion

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Stabledollars: The Third Act of Dollar Reinvention

Published

3 часа ago

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6 мая, 2025

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Eight decades of dollar history can be read as a three-act play.

Act I was the Eurodollar—off-shore bank deposits that sprang up in 1950s London so the Soviet bloc, European exporters, and eventually every multinational could hold dollars outside U.S. regulation, spawning a multi-trillion-dollar shadow banking base.

Act II was the Petrodollar. After 1974, OPEC’s decision to price crude in dollars hard-wired global energy demand to U.S. currency and gave Washington an automatic bid for its Treasury bills.

John deVadoss will appear in the “IEEE x Consensus Research Symposium: What’s next in Agentic AI?” at Consensus 2025 on May 16 at 11:00am-12:30pm.

Act III is unfolding now. USD-backed Stabledollars (a.k.a. stablecoins)—on-chain tokens fully collateralized by T-bills and cash—have leapt past $230 billion in circulating supply and, on many days, settle more value than PayPal and Western Union combined. The dollar has reinvented itself again—this time as a monetary API: a permissionless, programmable unit that clears in seconds for a fraction of a cent.

Follow the incentives and the shape of the future appears. A Lagos merchant can accept USDC on her phone, skip 20% naira slippage, and restock inventory the same afternoon. A Singapore hedge fund parks cash in tokenized T-bill vaults yielding 4.9%, then routes those dollars into a swap at 8 a.m. New-York time without a correspondent bank. A Colombian gig worker converts weekend wages to digital dollars, bypasses capital controls, and withdraws pesos at a neighborhood ATM—no Friday-to-Monday lag, no 7% remit fee.

Stablecoins haven’t replaced the banking system; they have tunneled around its slowest, most expensive choke points.

Scale begets legitimacy. The GENIUS Act moving through the U.S. Senate would charter stable-coin issuers nationally and, for the first time, open a path to Fed master accounts. Treasury staff already model a $2 trillion stable-coin float by 2028—enough to rival the entire Eurodollar stock of the early 1990s.

That projection is plausible: Tether and Circle command over 90% share with reserves lodged almost entirely in short-dated U.S. debt, meaning foreigners are effectively holding digitized T-bills that settle in 30 seconds. The dollar’s network-effect is migrating from SWIFT messages to smart-contract calls, extending hegemony without printing a single new note.

Yet, the Stabledollar epoch is no risk-free triumph. Private tokens that wrap sovereign money raise hard questions. Who conducts monetary policy when a third of the offshore float lives in smart contracts? What recourse does a Venezuelan family have if an issuer black-lists its wallet? Will Europe—or the BRICS—tolerate a rails-level dependence on a U.S.-regulated asset? These are governance puzzles, but they are solvable if policymakers treat stablecoins as critical dollar infrastructure, not as speculative irritants.

The playbook is straightforward:

  1. Impose Basel-style capital and liquidity rules on issuers.
  2. Post real-time reserve attestations on-chain so collateral is transparent by default.
  3. Mandate inter-operability across blockchains to prevent winner-take-all custodianship.
  4. Extend FDIC-like insurance to tokenized deposits so end-users enjoy the same safety net as with bank accounts.

Do that, and the United States creates a digital-dollar moat wider than any rival’s CBDC, including China’s. Shrug, and issuance will migrate offshore, leaving Washington to police a shadow system it no longer controls.

Dollar hegemony has always advanced by hitching itself to the dominant trade flow of the age: Eurodollars financed post-war reconstruction; petrodollars lubricated the fossil-fuel century; Stabledollars are wiring the high-velocity, software-eaten economy. Ten years from now, you won’t see them; they will simply be the water we swim in. Your local café will quote prices in pesos or pounds but settle in tokenized dollars under the hood. Brokerages will sell “notes” that are really bearer instruments programmable for collateral calls. Payroll will arrive in a wallet that auto-routes savings, investments, and charitable gifts the instant it clears.

The only open question is whether the United States will steward the upgrade it accidentally birthed. Stablecoins are already the fastest-growing quasi-sovereign asset class. Harness them with serious rules and the dollar’s third great reinvention writes itself. Ignore them, and that future still arrives—just without the U.S. in the driver’s seat.

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