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Crypto Daybook Americas: Robinhood’s Crypto Growth Presages Riot, Strategy Even as Tariffs Hit GDP

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5 месяцев ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The impact of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is starting to be felt. The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years last quarter and stock prices have seen their worst first 100-day performance of a presidential administration since 1974.

Results from trading platform Robinhood also showed markets cooled in the first three months of the year, even as it beat analyst forecasts for both revenue and earnings per share.

It wasn’t alone, major tech companies including Microsoft and Meta beat estimates and, crucially, Robinhood’s revenue from crypto doubled from the year-earlier quarter. That may foreshadow what to look for later today, when Block, Riot Platforms, Strategy and Reddit post results after the closing bell.

“The recent wave of weak macroeconomic data has pointed to both recessionary risks and rising inflation,” James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, told CoinDesk. “Despite this, bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, outperforming the Nasdaq by 11% since ‘Liberation Day’” on April 2.

Indeed, while first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3% and major stock indexes post posted losses in last month, bitcoin (BTC) held strong. The largest cryptocurrency rose nearly 15% against the dollar in April as investors started using it as a safe haven, along with gold and the Swiss franc.

To Butterfill, risk assets are now seemingly benefiting from expectations of an earlier-than-expected interest-rate cut.

“Equities and bitcoin appear to have recoupled, both rebounding today on renewed hopes of an imminent interest-rate cut,» he said. «A disappointing payroll figure on Friday — which we see as likely — could be the final nail in the coffin for Powell, paving the way for more dovish policy from the Fed.»

Yet in the cryptocurrency space, there’s more to keep an eye on. Ethereum’s long-awaited Pectra upgrade, which includes improvements to make the network more user-friendly and efficient, is going live on mainnet on May 7.

The upgrade is significant for Ethereum, which has been losing ground to more efficient blockchains including Solana, Base and BNB chain. DeFiLlama data shows total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum’s smart contracts grew just 4% in April, compared with 21% on Solana, and 9.9% on BNB Chain. Base saw a minor contraction.

In the past year, Artemis data shows Ethereum net outflows totaled $3.3 billion, while Base and Solana saw $3.3 billion and $3.2 billion in net inflows, respectively. Still, Ethereum recorded $880 million in net inflows in April, suggesting the trend is reversing ahead of Pectra’s activation.

The trend has, however, taken its toll. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to little over 0.19, the lowest level in five years. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • May 1: Coinbase Asset Management will introduce the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF), which is aimed at non-U.S. investors.
    • May 1: Hippo Protocol starts up its own layer-1 blockchain mainnet built on Cosmos SDK and completes a migration from Ethereum’s ERC-20 HPO token to its native HP token, enabling staking and governance.
    • May 1, 9 a.m.: Constellation Network (DAG) activates the Tessellation v3 upgrade on its mainnet, introducing delegated staking, node collateral, token locking and new transaction types to enhance network security, scalability and functionality.
    • May 1, 11 a.m.: THORChain activates its v3.5 mainnet upgrade, adding the TCY token to convert $200 million in debt into equity. TCY holders earn 10% of network revenue, while native RUNE remains the protocol’s security and governance token. TCY activates May 5.
    • May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts. Rebased moves IOTA to a new network, boosting capacity to as many as 50,000 transactions per second, offering staking rewards of 10%-15% a year and adding support for MoveVM smart contracts.
    • May 5, 11 a.m.: The Crescendo network upgrade goes live on the Kaspa (KAS) mainnet. This upgrade boosts the network’s performance by increasing the block production rate to 10 blocks per second from 1 block per second.
    • May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
  • Macro
    • May 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 26.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 222K
    • May 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases Canada April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
    • May 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 50.7 vs. Prev. 50.2
    • May 1, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases U.S. April economic activity data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 48 vs. Prev. 49
    • May 2, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April employment data.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 228K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • May 2, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 51.8
    • May 2, 11:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases Mexico April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.5
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
    • May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
    • May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23
    • May 1: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, $-0.11
    • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.08
    • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market
    • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $261.2 million.
    • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $12.31 million.
    • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $13.39 million.
    • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.96 million.
    • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $12.61 million.
  • Token Launches
    • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
    • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Over 3.7 million tokens — or 53% — listed on GeckoTerminal since 2021 have failed, meaning they are no longer actively traded, per a CoinGecko report on Wednesday.
  • This year alone, 1.8 million have collapsed.
  • That’s nearly half of all dead tokens in the past five years, driven by market turbulence post-Trump inauguration.
  • The explosion in token creation, from 428,000 in 2021 to nearly 7 million by 2025, is mainly due to tools like Pump.fun that enable rapid memecoin launches.
  • Most failures occurred in 2024 and 2025, as memecoin saturation and speculative hype led to short-lived, low-effort crypto projects flooding the market.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Open interest across centralized exchanges has continued its steady climb, reaching $125 billion across all assets in a clear signal of growing speculative activity and market engagement.
  • On Binance, the BTC-USDT perpetual order book heatmap reveals the next significant supply zone is at $96.2K, with ask orders totaling 321 BTC. Additionally, liquidation heatmaps show clusters around $96K, suggesting a potential magnet for price action, with liquidation pockets of $58M, $42.7M and $56.1M.
  • Notably, the largest liquidation cluster sits at the $93K support, where $76.3M in liquidations are stacked making it a key level to watch for downside volatility.
  • Among assets with over $100 million in open interest, the largest week-on-week increases were seen in Virtuals Protocol, MemeFi, Curve, Fartcoin, and Hyperliquid.
  • On the funding rate front, MemeFi, Virtuals Protocol and Alchemist AI posted the sharpest increases, signaling elevated long positioning and potential overheating in sentiment.

Market Movements:

  • BTC is up 1.76% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $96,305.26 (24hrs: +1.49%)
  • ETH is up 2.37% at $1,838.40 (24hrs: +2.03%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.64% at 2,787.00 (24hrs: +1.22%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 29 bps at 2.67%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0078% (1.0416% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.31% at 99.81
  • Gold is down 2.01% at $3,221.46/oz
  • Silver is down 1.32% at $32.14/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +1.13% at 36,452.30
  • Hang Seng closed +0.51% at 22,119.41
  • FTSE is unchanged at 8,494.81
  • Euro Stoxx 50 closed unchanged at 5,160.22
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday +0.35% at 40,669.36
  • S&P 500 closed +0.15% at 5,569.06
  • Nasdaq closed unchanged at 17,446.34
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.13% at 24,841.68
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.73% at 2,529.66
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 4 bps at 4.17%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.23% at 5,655.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.73% at 20,002.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.83% at 41,109.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 64.57 (0.10%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01914 (0.47%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 850 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $49.24
  • Total Fees: 6.59 BTC / $630,313.73
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 133,905 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 29.6 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.40%

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis for May 1, 2025

  • After last week’s explosive rally, bitcoin is consolidating in a low-timeframe range between $93,000 and $95,600.
  • While yesterday’s U.S. GDP release briefly triggered downside pressure, the price quickly recovered, and BTC is holding above the yearly open, signaling underlying strength.
  • On the longer time frame, bitcoin remains within a supply zone, yet with a recent hourly candle closing decisively above local resistance, there’s a suggestion of a potential continuation of the upward grind.
  • If momentum persists, the next key area of interest lies between $96,000 and $98,000.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $380.11 (-0.35%), up 3.1% at $391.85 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $202.89 (-1.57%), up 2.89% at $208.75
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $21.92 (+3.94%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.37 (-5.98%), up 3.52% at $13.87
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.24 (-2.43%), up 3.87% at $7.52
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.10 (-2.29%), up 5.80% at $8.57
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.17 (-3.2%), up 4.90% at $8.57
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.68 (-3.59%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.33 (-4.83%), up 3.93% at $33.60
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.04 (-4.71%), up 1.82% at $39.75

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: -$56.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $39.11 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.15 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: -$2.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.50 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day for May 1, 2025

  • Over the past 12 months, the supply of stablecoins has been rapidly increasing on Tron and Ethereum, data from The Tie show.
  • Optimism and Avalanche, both Ethereum layer-2 networks, have seen a decline in favor of those layer 1s.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Here’s our latest odds of approval for all the dif spot ETFsEvery single major asset class is down together. The third-party doctrine says that any time you voluntarily share info with a third party you have no reasonable expectation of privacy whatsoever.How much electricity is required to mine 1 #Bitcoin?Chinese Investors have jumped into Gold ETFs this month at the fastest pace in history, more than double the previous record

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

2 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

3 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

Published

3 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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