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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Bulls Underpin Price After Pro-BTC Candidate Loses in Canada

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10 часов ago

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck near the $95,000 mark, apparently unfazed by the Canadian election result, which saw the crypto-friendly candidate for prime minister lose his seat. Key macroeconomic data due later this week could serve as a catalyst for bitcoin’s next move, with the standout being Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

In the meantime, the largest cryptocurrency is reaching a series of higher lows and lower highs, forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. This setup following a strong uptrend typically implies a continuation. A decisive breakout above $95,500 could spark the next leg higher, while a drop below support would indicate a potential reversal.

On the technical front, bitcoin’s hashrate, which has surged over recent months and is now about 10% away from its record, is beginning to decelerate. A downward difficulty adjustment of more than 5% is anticipated in four days and will provide some much-needed relief to miners, who have been grappling with hashprice levels near five-year lows.

The week’s macroeconomic data include personal spending and GDP growth figures on Wednesday, though Friday’s jobs report takes center stage. Economists forecast a drop in new jobs to 135,000 during April, down from March’s 228,000 figure, which was the strongest in three months.

The unemployment rate is projected to have held steady at 4.2%, underscoring a persistently tight labor market. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 91% probability of the Fed funds rate being held at at 4.25%–4.50% at the May 7 FOMC meeting.

Also in the mix, earnings season is heating up, particularly among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) report after the market close on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Strategy (MSTR) on Thursday. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares will debut three ETFs that will provide leveraged and inverse exposure to XRP: ​​the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, the ProShares Short XRP ETF and the ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF.
    • April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
    • May 1: Coinbase Asset Management will introduce the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund (CBYF), which is aimed at non-U.S. investors.
    • May 1: Hippo Protocol starts up its own layer-1 blockchain mainnet built on Cosmos SDK and completes a migration from Ethereum’s ERC-20 HPO token to its native HP token, enabling staking and governance.
    • May 1, 9 a.m.: Constellation Network (DAG) activates the Tessellation v3 upgrade on its mainnet, introducing delegated staking, node collateral, token locking and new transaction types to enhance network security, scalability and functionality.
    • May 1, 11 a.m.: THORChain activates its v3.5 mainnet upgrade, adding the TCY token to convert $200 million in debt into equity. TCY holders earn 10% of network revenue, while native RUNE remains the protocol’s security and governance token. TCY activates May 5.
  • Macro
    • April 29, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.5M vs. Prev. 7.568M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.195M
    • April 29, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing titled “Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity.” Livestream link.
    • April 30, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases March unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.8%
    • April 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q1 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. -0.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 0.5%
    • April 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (advance) Q1 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 2.4%
    • April 30, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases March consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.3%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.5%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.8%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.4%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • April 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.16
    • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.33
    • May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.97
    • May 1: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.02
    • May 1: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.23

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $24.75 million.
    • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $267.86 million.
    • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $12.10 million.
    • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $13.44 million.
    • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $14.01 million.
    • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $12.35 million.
  • Token Launches
    • April 29: MilkyWay (MILK) to be listed on Bybit.
    • April 29: Virtual (VIRTUAL) to be listed on Binance.US.
    • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
    • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • BNB Chain’s Lorentz upgrade went live earlier Tuesday, boosting BNB token fundamentals by making the network faster and more efficient.
  • The upgrade improved the way validators exchange data, making the process quicker and smoother to reduce delays and speed up transaction processing.
  • It also added a method allowing validators to receive multiple blocks at once, instead of one by one.
  • The time it takes to create a new block is reduced to about 1.5 seconds and could fall to as low as 0.75 seconds. Faster block times mean transactions are confirmed more quickly, making the network feel snappier for users.
  • The update makes decentralized apps (dapps) like games or financial tools run faster and smoother. Developers can keep building apps the same way because the update doesn’t change how the network works with their code.
  • A faster, more efficient network attracts more users and developers, which can increase demand for BNB and make it more valuable over time.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Total open interest (OI) across perpetuals, options and futures now stands at $122 billion globally, according to data from Laevitas.
  • SUI has seen a sharp surge in derivatives activity, with its share of global perpetuals volume peaking at 5.06% ($7.12 billion) on April 25.
  • It has since sustained volume dominance above 3.5%, significantly higher than its historical average of under 2%, suggesting renewed speculative appetite driven by recent project announcements.
  • According to Coinalyze, the top OI gainers in the past 24 hours among tokens with market caps over $100 million are:
    • SAFE: +123%
    • RAY: +92%
    • MOCA: +68%

Market Movements:

  • BTC is up 0.43% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $95,009.93 (24hrs: +0.33%)
  • ETH is up 2.81% at $1,838.46 (24hrs: +1.9%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.85% at 2,792.69 (24hrs: -0.08%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 28 bps at 2.975%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.5749% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.27% at 99.28
  • Gold is down 1.11% at $3,306.08/oz
  • Silver is up 0.41% at $33.28/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +0.38% at 35,839.99
  • Hang Seng closed +0.16% at 22,008.11
  • FTSE is up 0.16% at 8,430.89
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,168.63
  • DJIA closed on Monday 0.28% at 40,227.59
  • S&P 500 closed +0.06% at 5,528.75
  • Nasdaq closed -0.1% at 17,336.13
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.36% at 24,798.59
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.74% at 2,549.44
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 6 bps at 4.21%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 5,561.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.15% at 190557.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.36% at 40,515.00

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 64.24 (-0.24%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01928 (1.80%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 842 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $48.7 PH/s
  • Total Fees: 6.98 BTC / $651,628
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 132, 750 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 28.6 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.10%

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis for April 29, 2025

  • Ether (ETH) is showing signs of recovery after reclaiming the value area (defined by the two blue dotted lines), suggesting a return to its high-volume price zone established since the October 2023 rally.
  • The Point of Control (PoC) remains near $2,200, serving as a major magnet for price action and a critical bullish target.
  • ETH is also approaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a potential inflection point that may spark volatility.
  • The level is particularly notable because many altcoins have beaten ether to reclaim their 50-day EMAs.
  • Importantly, price action has now broken above the descending trendline stemming from the December 2024 high, a key structural shift favoring bullish momentum.
  • Upside targets include:
    • $2,104 to confirm a higher high
    • $2,200 (PoC), volume-weighted focal point
    • $2,480 (200-day EMA), long-term resistance
  • To maintain its bullish bias, ETH must hold above the lower boundary of the value area (~$1,745), or risk a return to bearish sentiment.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed Monday at $369.25 (+0.15%), up 0.30% at $370.34 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $205.27 (-2.08%), up 0.58% at $206.47
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $21.21 (2.81%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.01 (-2.03%)
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.63 (-1.8%), up 0.39% at $7.66
  • Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $8.24 (-0.84%), up 1.21% at $8.34
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.57 (-4.88%), up 0.12% at $8.58
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.33 (-1.58%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.37 (-3.99%), up 1.78% at $36.00
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.18 (-7.30%), up 1.92% at $42.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $591.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $38.99 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.14 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $64.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.48 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.40 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Chart of the day for April 29, 2025

  • BTC dominates derivatives, with $32.97B in open interest (OI), over 40% of the total and more than double ETH’s $12.26B.
  • Memecoins like DOGE, TRUMP, PEPE and FARTCOIN each exceed $480M in OI, outperforming many large-cap assets, showing the strength of memecoins within derivatives positioning.
  • ETH + SOL combined ($16.11B) remain fall far short of BTC’s OI, underscoring bitcoin’s continued derivatives supremacy.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Bitcoin is rising but gold isn’t backing down.A big swing UP in Bitcoin Long-term holder supply over the last month. Hodlers are growing their stack.In the past 7 days, stablecoins(USDT&USDC) on #Tron increased by $2.17B, and stablecoins(USDT&USDC) on #Avalanche decreased by $66.22M.If you bought European Stocks in 2000, you finally broke even after 25 yearsIt's clear who bought all the gold.

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Bitcoin Edges Above $95K, U.S. Stocks Remain Strong as Analyst Warns of ‘Blind’ Market

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1 час ago

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29 апреля, 2025

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The crypto market experienced another relatively calm day on Tuesday despite widespread pessimism about the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on the economy.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1% in the last 24 hours, trading at almost $95,400 and within sight of topping $96,000 for the first time since the second half of February. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, exchange coins and memecoins — rose 1.1%, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) outshining the rest of the index by surging 6.3%.

Crypto stocks had fairly muted performances Tuesday, with Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) up 0.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Janover (JNVR), continued to benefit from its SOL accumulation strategy, rising another 16%.

The stock market also continued its recovery from the early April-tariff induced panic, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each adding 0.55%.

For some observers, the market’s performance has seemed unanchored from the wave of economic data coming in that suggests that U.S. economic activity is slowing down due to the tariff policies unleashed by the White House.

Consumer confidence came in at its lowest level since May 2020, according to a Conference Board survey, while the consumer outlook hit its lowest point since 2011. Meanwhile, the JOLTS survey indicated that job openings had fallen to 7.19 million in March versus an expected 7.5 million.

In fresh tariff news, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said today that a trade deal had been reached with an unspecified country, though the deal still needed to be ratified with that country’s leaders.

Some shade on the rally

“Hard to fathom how blind the market really is,” Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, posted on X.

“A Fed cut means nothing if U.S. creditworthiness is permanently impaired by the global community as resulted by dollar weaponization,” Park said, referring to recent speculation on whether the U.S. central bank will be forced to lower rates to counter the effect of Trump’s tariffs. “That’s the mispricing we are talking about here,» he continued. «The myopic focus on whether [we] are getting a fed cut in May/June is completely irrelevant if the notion of the risk-free as we know it is fundamentally challenged forever, which means cost of capital globally is going higher.”

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SoFi Plans Major Push Into Crypto Amid New Regulatory Environment

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2 часа ago

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29 апреля, 2025

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SoFi has plans to bring back crypto services for its clients after suspending those operations in 2023 so as not to impede its effort to become a regulated bank.

“We’re going to re-enter the crypto business, which we had to exit,» SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said in an interview with CNBC. «We’ll re-enter the business of allowing our members to invest in cryptocurrency. We want to actually make a bigger, more comprehensive push into cryptocurrency, to include really providing crypto or blockchain capabilities in each product area that we have.»

The tech company had offered clients access to more than 20 tokens back in 2023 but decided to halt its services as it was in the process of receiving a bank charter in the U.S. during a time when scrutiny over the digital asset industry was decidedly unfriendly under the Biden administration.

Noto said that thanks to new guidance from the Comptroller of the Currency, which was published in March and promised a reduced burden on banks engaged in the sector, the tech company could start offering crypto investing by the end of this year.

SoFi will also look to use blockchain technology in all of its major products over the next 24 months, he said, and the company could also offer crypto payments as well as lending against crypto assets.

“Our aspirations are as broad as they are for any other product that we have, and we believe we can leverage the technology across lending and savings and spending and investing and protecting,» Noto said.

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Tornado Cash Can’t Be Sanctioned Again, Texas Judge Rules

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3 часа ago

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29 апреля, 2025

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Tornado Cash is officially safe from U.S. sanctions, following a district court ruling on Monday.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) removed Tornado Cash from its sanctions list in March, several months after an appeals court ruled that the agency had “overstepped its Congressionally-defined authority” by sanctioning the crypto mixing service’s smart contracts back in 2022.

However, the way that OFAC de-listed Tornado Cash, and the subsequent notices and motions its lawyers filed with the court in March, left apparent wiggle room for the agency to put the mixing service back on its no-fly list in the future, a federal judge said. The Treasury attorneys argued that, because OFAC had revoked sanctions against Tornado Cash before the district court’s final judgment (but after the appeals court’s decisive ruling), the issue was moot.

But, to the six plaintiffs in Van Loon vs. Treasury — all users of Tornado Cash — the issue was not, in fact, moot. In an April 21 filing, their lawyers blasted OFAC’s response to the Fifth Circuit’s ruling, calling it “a study in chaos” and accusing them of “wav[ing] the mootness flag” in a last-ditch effort to “evade an adverse judgment.”

“Enough is enough,” lawyers for the plaintiff told the judge. “It is time for this Court to do what the Fifth Circuit ordered months ago … Defendants’ designation must be held unlawful and set aside.”

In his sternly-worded ruling yesterday, U.S. District Judge Robert Pitman of the Western District of Texas said that the case was not moot, and sided with the plaintiffs, ruling that OFAC’s designation of Tornado Cash was unlawful and the agency is therefore permanently enjoined from enforcing sanctions against it.

“[OFAC does] not suggest they will not sanction Tornado Cash again, and they may seek to ‘reenact precisely the same [designation] in the future’,” Pitman wrote. “Rather than acknowledge that the Fifth Circuit’s order required delisting Tornado Cash, Defendants state that they exercised their ‘discretion’ in deciding to do so based on more general policy and legal considerations.”

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is currently pursuing criminal charges against two Tornado Cash developers, Roman Storm and Roman Semenov, who were charged in 2023 with conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter, and conspiracy to violate U.S. sanctions. Semenov remains on OFAC’s sanctions list.

Earlier this month, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche sent DOJ staff a memo informing them of narrowing crypto-related enforcement priorities. Staff were instructed to no longer pursue cases against crypto exchanges, mixing services or offline wallets “for the acts of their end users or unwitting violations of regulations.” Blanche ordered any ongoing investigations that were not compliant with these new priorities to be dropped, and said that his office would work with the DOJ’s criminal division to decide how to proceed with any ongoing litigation that didn’t meet the new enforcement standards.

The memo has already made waves in ongoing crypto litigation. Prosecutors in the case against the two founders of crypto mixer Samourai Wallet filed a joint request with defense lawyers on Monday, asking the court for a 16-day extension in various deadlines as they decided whether or not to drop charges under the auspices of Blanche’s memo.

A host of prominent figures in the crypto industry also signed on to a letter from the DeFi Education Fund to White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks on Monday, urging U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene in the case to “discontinue the Biden-era Department of Justice’s lawless campaign to criminalize open-source software development” and the prosecution of Storm.

Read more: Samourai Wallet Prosecutors Are Considering Dropping Charges Under New DOJ Enforcement Priorities: Filing

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