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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Breakout Lifts AI, Memecoins, Underscores Hedge Value

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin’s censorship-resistant, decentralized setup empowers individuals by facilitating peer-to-peer transactions without government interference or corporate control.

You’ve probably heard that from a Bitcoin maxi many times.

It’s an idea that resonates even more strongly today in light of reports that President Donald Trump is exploring ways to remove Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, which is the world’s most powerful central bank.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett talked about Trump’s intentions Friday and markets responded early Monday by selling the dollar and the U.S. stock futures. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s exchange rate against major fiat currencies, slipped to a three-year low of 98.00 while gold touched new highs above $3,400 per ounce.

Bitcoin rose past $87,000, confirming a bullish breakout from its recent sideways trading between $83,000 and $86,000 to suggest more gains ahead. The uptick saw gaming, AI and memecoins outshine other sectors of the crypto market, with smaller tokens like ENJ and MAGIC chalking out gains in excess of 50% in 24 hours. MANTRA still tanked 15%.

«A weaker dollar could draw renewed attention from American investors, highlighting bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against declining dollar value,» said Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform.

On-chain data warned of heightened volatility as prices potentially near the $90,000 mark. «Cost‑basis clusters show little overhead supply below that range, implying the market could advance quickly before a larger tranche of holders reaches break‑even and begins taking profit,» analytics firm IntoTheBlock said in a Telegram post.

In other news, Charles Shwab CEO Rick Wurster said the financial services firm is “hopeful and likely to be able” to support spot crypto trading within the next year. Wurster said that more and more clients are seeking information about crypto.

Slovenia’s Finance Ministry proposed a 25% tax on capital gains on profits from selling cryptocurrencies for fiat or spending tokens for goods and services. The tax is proposed to go into effect from 2026.

Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder of the Ethereum blockchain, proposed replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with RISC-V, an open-source instruction set architecture used to develop custom processors for a variety of applications. Buterin said the proposal address one of Ethereum’s key scaling bottlenecks by dramatically improving the efficiency and simplicity of smart contract execution.

Speaking of Ethereum, it briefly fell behind its chief rival, Solana network in terms of the total staked value of their respective native tokens, ETH and SOL. Uniswap founder Hayden Adam warned that Ethereum could fall behind Solana if it goes back to relying on the layer 1 bockchain instead of the layer-2 scaling products.

In macro news, China said it will retaliate against countries that work with U.S. to isolate Beijing in the trade war started by Trump. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • April 21: Coinbase Derivatives will list XRP futures pending approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
    • April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Key Considerations for Crypto Custody«.
    • April 29, 1:05 a.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — BSC mainnet hardfork.
    • April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares expects its XRP ETF, offering exposure through futures and swap agreements, to begin trading on NYSE Arca.
    • April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
  • Macro
    • April 21-26: World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings take place in Washington.
    • April 22, 8:30 p.m.: Statistics Canada releases March producer price inflation data.
      • PPI MoM Prev. 0.4%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 4.9%
    • April 22, 6 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled «Transmission of Monetary Policy.»
    • April 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.
      • Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.6%
      • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 2.7%
    • April 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 53.5
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 50.2
      • Services PMI Est. 52.9 vs. Prev. 54.4
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
    • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market
    • May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • April 22: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $127.9 million.
    • April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.78 million.
    • May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $167.97 million.
    • May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.57 million.
    • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $12.12 million.
  • Token Launches
    • April 21: Balance (EPT) to be listed on Bitget Bybit, KuCoin, Gate.io, LBank, MEXC, BingX.
    • April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
    • April 22: BNB to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences:

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Bitget, a centralized crypto exchange, will reverse trades and compensate users due to «abnormal trading» in its perpetual futures market for VOXEL, a token linked to the Polygon-based RPG game Voxie Tactics.
  • Early Sunday, VOXEL’s trading volume surged past bitcoin’s 24-hour volume — with the token’s value surging over 300% in a week — despite being only the 723rd-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
  • An X user claimed six-figure profits from a sub-$100 investment, attributing the surge to a potential bug in Bitget’s market-making robot,. The trade rollback will likely erase these gains.
  • Bitget’s investigation revealed possible market manipulation by certain accounts, prompting the exchange to activate its risk-control system and plan a trade rollback within 24 hours.
  • Affected users who incurred losses will receive compensation, and Bitget is continuing its investigation.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The market-wide futures open interest has climbed to $37.22 billion, the highest since March 24, according to Velo Data. The figure represents open interest in all coins listed on Binance, Bybit, OKX, Deribit and Hyperliquid.
  • ETH is the best performing major token in terms of futures open interest growth, followed by BTC and LINK.
  • Speaking of OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, ETH also leads the pack with the highest positive reading, implying an influx of buying pressure in the market.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH risk reversals for short- and near-dated expiries have flattened out, recovering from the recent persistent negative prints that represented bias for protective put options.

Market Movements:

  • BTC is up 3.19% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $87,270.44 (24hrs: +3.63%)
  • ETH is up 2.54% at $1,631.90 (24hrs: +3.17%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.8% at 2,268.01 (24hrs: +3.77%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 47 bps at 2.47%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0044% (4.776% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 1.11% at 98.26
  • Gold is up 2.04% at $3,395.65/oz
  • Silver is up 1.12% at $32.89/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -1.3% at 34,279.92
  • Hang Seng closed +1.61% at 21,395.14
  • FTSE is closed at 8,275.66
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is closed at 4,935.34
  • DJIA closed on Thursday -1.33% at 39,142.23
  • S&P 500 closed +0.13% at 5,282.70
  • Nasdaq closed -0.13% at 16,286.45
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.36% at 24,192.81
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.64% at 2,383.75
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.33%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 5,275.00
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.16% at 18,168.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.92% at 38,969

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 64% (0.23%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1873 (0.54%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 858 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $45.22
  • Total Fees: 5.48 BTC / $479,045
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 141,280 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 25.7 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 7.2%

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD's daily price chart with trading volume and seven-day volume MA. (Coinglass)

  • Bitcoin’s breakout has set the stage for a continued move higher to $90,000.
  • However, trading volume has dipped, suggesting low participation in the price recovery.
  • A low-volume rally often ends up being short-lived.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $317.20 (1.78%), up 3.13% at $327.12 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175.03 (1.64%) up 1.4% at $177.49
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.36 (-1.41%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.66 (2.76%), up 2.69% at $13.00
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.46 (1.57%), up 2.63% at $6.63
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.63 (0.61%), down 0.45% at $6.60
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.51 (3.16%), up 1.86% at $7.65
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.04 (1.09%), up 2.41% at $12.33
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.49 (4.79%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.58 (-1.64%), up 2.1% at $37.35

ETF Flows

U.S. equity markets were closed on Friday.

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

XRP options risk reversals. (Deribit/Amberdata)

  • XRP’s short- and near-dated risk reversals continue to be priced negative, a sign of persistent demand for put options, which offer downside protection.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Price range for Bitcoin in the 4th halving cycle:Schwab CEO expects to launch direct spot crypto trading w/in next 12mos…Bitcoin has no counterparty risk.Capital inflows into the crypto market have plunged 70% over the past two weeks, falling from $8.20 billion to just $2.38 billion!This brings total China’s gold reserves to a record 2,292 tonnes.

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Vitalik Buterin Proposes Replacing Ethereum’s EVM With RISC-V

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared a new proposal over the weekend that would radically overhaul the system that powers its smart contracts.

Buterin’s suggestion, which he posted on Ethereum’s primary developer forum, involves replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine, the software engine that powers programs on the network, with RISC-V, a popular open-source framework that offers built-in encryption and other benefits. .

The EVM is a key piece of Ethereum’s underlying design and has been seen as one of the main elements that helped the network succeed in a crowded field of other blockchains. Many non-Ethereum networks have used the EVM to build their own chains, as has a growing ecosystem of layer-2 networks built atop Ethereum, including Coinbase’s Base chain.

The EVM has long played an essential role in Ethereum’s development. Other chains that use it can seamlessly connect with apps on Ethereum, and developers on EVM-based networks can transition more smoothly to building applications directly within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Buterin argued that transitioning Ethereum to a RISC-V architecture will “greatly improve the efficiency of the Ethereum execution layer, resolving one of the primary scaling bottlenecks, and can also greatly improve the execution layer’s simplicity.” (The execution layer is the part of the network that reads smart contracts.)

The RISC-V architecture, which has seen limited adoption in other blockchain ecosystems, like Polkadot, could offer «efficiency gains over 100x» for certain kinds of applications, according to Buterin. These improvements could reduce the network’s costs — long seen as a major barrier to adoption.

Among the primary benefits of RISC-V is its native support for certain kinds of encryption. Transitioning to the new architecture could, in Buterin’s view, be a simpler alternative to the community’s current plan, which involves rebuilding the EVM around zero-knowledge cryptography.

Buterin’s proposal is something developers would tackle over the long term, comparable to projects like the Beam Chain, which is looking to revamp Ethereum’s consensus layer.

The RISC-V comes at a time of broader soul-searching for the Ethereum community. Recently, transaction volumes have declined, and Ethereum’s token has lagged behind the broader market.

Earlier this year, the Ethereum Foundation, the primary non-profit that supports the development of the broader Ethereum ecosystem, underwent a leadership transition in an attempt to remedy the impression among community members that the ecosystem lacked a clear roadmap and was losing its lead compared to competitors.

Read more: Top Ethereum Researcher’s Dramatic Proposal Draws Standing-Room-Only Crowd in Bangkok

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The GPT Gold Rush Is Failing Crypto Traders

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The AI revolution in trading should be a game-changer, but instead, it’s become a quick money grab. Everywhere you turn, yet another ChatGPT wrapper is being marketed as the next big thing for crypto traders. The promises? “AI-powered insights,” “next-gen trading signals,” “perfect agentic trading.” The reality? Overhyped, overpriced, and underperforming vaporware that doesn’t scratch the surface of what’s truly needed.


Saad Naja is a speaker at the AI Summit during Consensus 2025, Toronto, May 14-16.

AI should be designed to augment the trader experience, not sideline it. Companies like Spectral Labs and Creator.Bid are innovating with AI agents but risk heading toward vaporware status if they fail to deliver real utility beyond surface-level GPT wrappers. They have an overreliance on Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT without offering any unique utility, prioritizing AI buzzwords over substance and AI architecture transparency.

AI Agents Should Augment Trading

Combining AI and trading is a transformative leap, for humans to make trading gains more effectively with powerful foresight, investing less time, but not to replace humans from the trading equation entirely. Traders don’t need another emotionless agent with unfettered agency. They need tools that help them trade better, faster, and more confidently in environments that simulate real market volatility before going trading in the real markets.

Too many GPT wrappers rush to market with fluffy, half-baked agents that prey on fear, confusion, and FOMO. With barely-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) and little transparency, some of these AI trading “solutions” reinforce set and forget bad habits.

Trading isn’t just about hyper speed or automation, it’s about thoughtful decision-making. It’s about balancing science with intuition, data with emotion. In this first wave of agent design, what’s missing is the art of the trader’s journey: their skill progression, unique strategy development, and fast evolution through interactive mentorship and simulations.

Just Fancy Calculators

The real innovation lies in developing a meta-model that blends predictive trading LLMs, real-time APIs, sentiment analysis, and on-chain data, while filtering through the chaos of Crypto Twitter.

Emotion and sentiment do move markets. If your AI Trader agent can’t detect when a community flips bullish or bearish, or front-run that signal, it’s a non-starter.

GPT Wrappers rejecting emotion-driven market moves offer lower-risk, lower-reward gains within portfolio optimization. A better agent reads nuance, tone, and psycholinguistics, just as skilled traders do.

And while 20 years of high-quality trading data spanning multiple cycles, markets and instruments is a great start, true mastery comes through engagement and progression loops that stick. The best agents learn from data, people and thrive with coaching.

Better to Lose Pretend Money

Financial systems intimidate most people. Many never start, or blow up fast. Simulated environments help fix that. The thrill of winning, the pain of losing, and the joy of bouncing back are what build resilience and shift gears from sterile chat and voice interfaces.

AI Trader agents should teach this, back-test and simulate trading comeback strategies in virtual trading environments, not just of successful trades but comebacks from the unforeseen events. Think of it like learning to drive: real growth comes from time on the road and close calls, not just reading your state’s handbook.

Simulations can show traders how to spot candlestick patterns, manage risk, adapt to volatility, or respond to new tariff headlines, without losing their heads in the process. By learning through agents, traders can refine strategies and own their positions, win or lose.

Before My Bags, Win My Trust

AI Agents’ life-like responses are fast improving to being indistinguishable from human responses through conversational and contextual depth (closing the “Uncanny Valley” gap). But for traders to accept and trust these agents, they need to feel real, be interactive, intelligent, and relatable.

Agents with personality, ones that vibe like real traders, whether cautious portfolio managers or cautious portfolio optimizers can become trusted copilots. The key to this trust is control. Traders must have the right to refuse or approve the AI Agent’s calls.

On-demand chat access is another lever, alongside visibility of trading gains and comebacks built on the sweat and tears of real traders. The best agents won’t just execute trades, they’ll explain why. They’ll evolve with the trader. They’ll earn access to manage funds only after proving themselves, like interns earning a seat on the trading desk.

Fun, slick AAA aesthetics and progression will keep traders coming back in shared experiences opposed to solo missions. Through tokenization and co-learning models, AI agents could become not just tools, but co-owned assets — solving crypto’s trader liquidity problem along the way.

First-to-market players must be viewed with healthy skepticism. If Trader AI Agents are going to make a real impact, they must move beyond sterile chat interfaces and become dynamic, educational, and emotionally intelligent.

Until then, GPT wrappers remain what they are slick distractions dressed up as innovation, extracting more value from users than they deliver, as the AI token market correction indicated.

The convergence of AI and crypto should empower traders. With the right incentives and a trader-first mindset, AI Agents could unlock unprecedented learnings and earnings. Not by replacing the trader but by evolving them.

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Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Spree Has Minimal Impact on Prices, TD Cowen Says

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Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.

The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.

A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market

Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.

According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.

“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn’t appear plausible that Strategy’s purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.

Correlation? Not Much.

The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.

Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.

What About Outpacing Miners?

Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.

Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.

“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.

Building Value, Not Hype

While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.

Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.

With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.

“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy’s Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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