The crypto bull run may have ended, with the market poised for a winter characterized by prolonged losses and stagnation, according to Coinbase’s institutional arm.

«The 200DMA model on bitcoin does suggest that the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March. But the same exercise performed on the COIN50 index (which includes the top 50 tokens by market capitalization) shows the asset class as a whole has been unequivocally trading in bear market territory since the end of February,» David Duong, global head of research at Coinbase Institutional, said in a note published Monday.

Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 9 and has since established a foothold below the same in a sign of a long-term bearish shift in momentum. The 200-day SMA is widely tracked to gauge long-term trends, with persistent moves above the same, representing a bull market and vice versa.

Duong noted this observation while addressing the challenges of identifying a crypto bear market, where 20% or more corrections are routine. In contrast, a 20% decline is typically used to define bear markets in stock markets.

The report argued that the arbitrary 20% often fails to account for a dent in investor sentiment and resulting portfolio adjustments spurred by smaller, more intense sell-offs.

«We’ve seen in the past that sentiment-driven declines can often trigger defensive portfolio adjustments, despite not meeting the arbitrary 20% threshold. In other words, we believe that bear markets fundamentally represent regime shifts in market structure – characterized by deteriorating fundamentals and shrinking liquidity – rather than just their percentage declines,» Duong noted.

In addition to the 200-day SMA, Duong highlighted bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations (z-score) relative to the average performance over the previous 365 days as another effective method for identifying crypto bear markets.

«Our [z-score] model indicates that the most recent bull cycle ended in late February. But it has since classified all subsequent activity as «neutral,» highlighting its potential lag in rapidly changing market dynamics,» Duong said, calling for a defensive stance on risk asses for the time being.

The impending winter may be more brutal for alternative cryptocurrencies considering the slowdown in the venture capital (VC) funding.

While BTC set new highs early this year, well above the 2021 top of $70K, the bullish trend failed to inspire more risk taking in the VC space, leaving the overall funding 50%-60% below 2021-22 levels.

Duong said that the crypto market «may find a floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 – setting up a better 3Q25.»

Global markets are again under pressure following an escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions, with investors fleeing to havens and tech stocks taking a beating.

Gold surged over 2% on Wednesday to top $3,300 per ounce and set a new record high. The dollar weakened further, and Nasdaq futures pointed to a rough day ahead for Wall Street.

On Tuesday, the White House announced tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese imports in response to China’s retaliatory measures and bans on exports of key strategic materials, including rare earth elements, gallium and germanium that are used the production of high-speed computer chips. The move follows an Executive Order launching an investigation into national security risks tied to U.S. dependence on foreign critical minerals.

Markets reacted swiftly. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell back below 100, signaling reduced investor confidence in the U.S. currency. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to $1.13 and the yen to 142 per dollar.

Equities struggled. Nasdaq futures dropped more than 2%, with tech stocks particularly hard hit. Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 7% pre-market after the company disclosed that new U.S. export controls on AI chips to China would cost it $5.5 billion in lost revenue. The announcement raised concerns of broader earnings hits across the semiconductor industry , which relies heavily on Chinese demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped slightly to $83,000 following the news, reflecting its stronger correlation with U.S. tech stocks rather than acting as a safe-haven asset like gold.

Disclaimer: This article, or parts of it, was generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) and major cryptocurrencies fell over 3% as profit-taking followed Tuesday’s rally.

Overall crypto market capitalization fell 3.3% in the past 24 hours, with BTC sliding to nearly $83,500 from a high above $84,200 a day earlier. Ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA fell as much as 5% to lead losses among majors.

The cryptocurrency market added 8% over 7 days, stabilising at the $2.7 trillion level since Saturday.

FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich says a move higher could bolster hopes for further gains, but these expectations will “only be confirmed after a solid consolidation above the 200-day moving average, which is now near $2.97 trillion.“

«Bitcoin continues its cautious rise, trading above its 50-day moving average and reaching $85,700. This is an important technical attempt to reverse the downtrend. Interestingly, the 200-day average is quite close, so a second confirmation of a trend change could come quite quickly,” Kuptsikevich said, adding that bitcoin had entered a resistance accumulation zone where the “strength of the initial rebound may fade.”

Solana’s SOL is showing strength in a downtrodden market, making it ripe for a move higher if overall conditions improve.

“Solana is recovering faster than many of the major altcoins, trading at its 50-day moving average near $130. A consolidation above this level will open the way to $145, the area of previous peaks. A sustained move above them will signal a break of the downtrend and could lead to a move towards $180,” Kuptsikevich noted.

On a more pessimistic approach, prominent market chartist Peter Brandt is not optimistic about bitcoin setting new highs in the current cycle.

“A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of trend BTC Sorry,” the trader noted said in an X post in response to sentiment for a bullish rebound.

Trendlines are a subjective price-action analyst method and less dependable than moving averages or key levels. A break, used in tandem with technical analysis, could hint at a change in movement.

Here’s what AI-driven market insights for some majors look like on Wednesday.

Dogecoin Price Analysis as Whales Accumulate 800M DOGE

Dogecoin whales have accumulated over 800 million DOGE in the last 48 hours, signaling potential confidence in the asset’s short-term prospects, data shows.

DOGE is currently trading at a critical juncture around $0.154-$0.155, with immediate resistance at $0.157 and crucial support at $0.153 that must hold to prevent further decline.

DOGE experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $0.169 before entering a pronounced downtrend with lower highs and lower lows since April 14th.

Support levels established around $0.155 have been repeatedly tested, with volume spikes coinciding with major price movements.

The 48-hour Fibonacci retracement shows price currently hovering near the 0.618 level, suggesting potential consolidation before the next directional move.

A sharp selloff occurred between 05:19-05:24, with price plummeting 1.1% in just five minutes on exceptionally high volume (15.3M in a single minute).

The subsequent bounce formed a potential double bottom at $0.153, with price currently consolidating around $0.154.

Volume analysis shows clear distribution before the drop and accumulation during the recovery attempt.

Solana Shows Consolidation

Recent price action shows SOL navigating volatility as geopolitical factors create market uncertainty.

Solana (SOL) experiences significant price volatility, consolidating between $125-$132 after a 13.7% surge from $119.59 to $136.01.

Solana leads decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, outpacing Ethereum for three consecutive days with $2.43 billion in trading activity.

Recent trading shows SOL consolidating between $125-$132, with key support established at $125.25.

Volume analysis reveals diminishing buying interest after the initial rally, suggesting market indecision.

The 50-hour moving average at $129.80 now serves as a critical pivot point.

Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential support at $127.40 (38.2%) if current levels fail to hold.

Cardano Sees 8% Bellyflop in Volatile Session

ADA experienced significant volatility, surging from $0.618 to a peak of $0.667 (8.0% range) before undergoing a substantial correction.

Recent trading shows ADA consolidating between $0.605-$0.615, with increased volume during downward movements suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Trading data reveals increasing volume during downward price movements, suggesting persistent selling pressure despite oversold conditions on 48-hour momentum indicators.

While some accumulation appears to be occurring at lower levels, potentially forming a base for recovery, ADA now faces significant overhead resistance from the 200-hour moving average.

The 200-hour moving average now acts as overhead resistance, reinforcing the bearish trend. 48-hour momentum indicators reveal oversold conditions, potentially offering short-term relief.

Volume increased significantly during downward movements, confirming selling pressure.