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Crypto Rebound Likely as Trump Tariffs May Bring Down Inflation

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is likely to bring down inflation in the U.S. economy, key sections of the financial market indicate, offering bullish cues to risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).
In his inaugural address on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump promised to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,» and then fired the first shot against China, Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Since then, the trade tensions have escalated to such an extent that as of writing, the U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other in excess of 100%.
Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which are then passed on to the consumer and could lead to higher general price level in a consumption-driven economy like the U.S.
Consequently since the trade war broke out, markets have been worried about a tariffs-led resurgence in the U.S. inflation, with the Fed adding to those concerns through its stagflationary economic projections last month. Stagflation, representing a combination of low growth, high inflation and joblessness, is seen as the worst outcome for riskier assets.
Bitcoin, therefore, has dropped nearly 20% since early February, alongside broad-based risk aversion on Wall Street that has seen investors concurrently dump stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar.
Breakevens suggest disinflation
However, market-based measures of inflation, such as the breakevens, suggest tariffs could be disinflationary over the long run. In other words, the Fed might be wrong in fearing stagflation and will soon have a leeway to cut rates.
Inflation breakevens the yields on traditional Treasury bonds with the yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The five-year breakeven inflation rate peaked above 2.6% in early February and has since dropped to 2.32%, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The 10-year breakeven rate has dropped from 2.5% to 2.19%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s expected two-year inflation has held at around 2.6%.
One time cost
According to observers, the impact of tariffs, viewed as a one-time cost adjustment, relies on the reactions of other macroeconomic variables and tends to be disinflationary in the long run.
When producers pass the tariff increase onto consumers, inflation levels rise. However, if there is no corresponding increase in income, consumers are compelled to reduce their consumption. This reduction can lead to inventory build-up and ultimately contribute to a decline in the prices of goods and services.
«Since the days of Smoot-Hawley, Tariffs have never been inflationary. Rather they are Deflationary and «stimulative themselves». Moreover, the disinflation shown in these charts will help encourage the Fed to soon ease as well. The Calvary is coming!,» Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter and a Wall Street veteran with four decades of experience, said on X.
A paper published by American economist Ravi Batra in 2001 made a similar observation, saying, «Tariffs in the US were never associated with rising prices, and trade liberalization with declining prices. High tariffs were always followed by sharp drops in the cost of living. tariffs produce inflation only in nonmarket or ualistic developing economies, but not inadvanced economies.»
All things considered, the recent financial market turbulence likely resulted from growth fears rather than inflation. The bull could soon reemerge in anticipation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
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Canary Capital Files for Tron ETF With Staking Capabilities

Canary Capital is looking to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the price of Tron’s native token, TRX, according to a filing.
The hedge fund submitted a Form S-1 for the Canary Staked TRX ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday. As the name suggests, the fund — if approved — would stake portions of its holdings.
This would be done through third-party providers, with BitGo acting as custodian for the assets. The fund would track TRX’s spot price using CoinDesk Indices calculations.
A proposed ticker as well as the management fee for the product have not been shared yet.
Issuers had initially filed applications for spot ethereum (ETH) ETFs with the staking feature included but removed them in an amended filing later in order to receive approval from the SEC on their proposals.
While the SEC under former Chair Gary Gensler was strictly against staking, issuers have grown more hopeful that they will be able to add the feature to their spot ether funds, among others, with the appointment of crypto-friendly Chair Paul Atkins.
A decision on a February request from Grayscale to allow staking in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH) was postponed by the regulator just a few days ago.
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Feds Mistakenly Order Estonian HashFlare Fraudsters to Self-Deport Ahead of Sentencing

Just four months ahead of their criminal sentencing for operating a $577 million cryptocurrency mining Ponzi scheme, the two Estonian founders of HashFlare were seemingly mistakenly ordered to self-deport by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) — an instruction that directly contradicted a court order for the men to remain in Washington state until they are sentenced in August.
In a joint letter to the court last week, lawyers for Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin told District Judge Robert Lasnik of the Western District of Washington that both men had received “disturbing communications” from DHS ordering them to leave the country immediately.
“It is time for you to leave the United States,” an email to Potapenko and Turogin dated April 11 read. “DHS is terminating your parole. Do not attempt to remain in the United States — the federal government will find you. Please depart the United States immediately.”
The email, included with the letter filed last week, threatened both men with “criminal prosecution, civil fines, and penalties and any other lawful options available to the federal government” if they stayed in the country. It resembles emails that undocumented immigrants and U.S. citizens alike have received over the past few days.
Ironically, Potapenko and Turogin are not in the U.S. of their own volition — they were extradited from their native Estonia at the request of the U.S. Department of Justice in 2022 on an 18-count indictment tied to their HashFlare scheme. Though they initially pleaded not guilty to all charges, in February they both pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, and agreed to forfeit over $400 million in assets. They have both been in the Seattle area on bond since last July.
“Although there is nothing Ivan and Sergei would want more than to immediately go home, they understood that they are also under Court order to remain in King County,” wrote Mark Bini, a partner at Reed Smith LLP and lead counsel for Potenko, wrote in the pair’s joint letter to the court. Bini did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
In his letter, Bini said DHS’s emails had caused both Potapenko and Turogin «significant anxiety.”
“We and our clients have all seen recent news. Immigration authorities make mistakes, and individuals who should not be in custody end up in custody, sometimes even deported to places where they should not be deported,” Bini wrote.
Six days after Bini’s letter to the judge, the DOJ filed its own letter with the court saying that prosecutors had coordinated with DHS’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) division and secured a year-long deferral to the self-deportation order.
“This should provide ample time for the sentencing to take place,” the prosecution’s letter said.
DHS did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
Potapenko and Turogin are slated to be sentenced on August 14 in Seattle. Their lawyers have said that they will request to be sentenced to time served, meaning no additional time in prison, and to be sent home to Estonia “immediately.”
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CoinDesk Weekly Recap: EigenLayer, Kraken, Coinbase, AWS

Following last week’s tariff-caused drama, this was a relatively quiet week in crypto. Bitcoin remained stable around $84k. The CoinDesk 20, which tracks about 80% of the market, was up about 4% in the last seven days — i.e. nothing historic.
Still, plenty happened. On Tuesday, much of crypto went offline because of a tech issue at AWS, showing how the decentralized economy isn’t always that decentralized. Shaurya Malwa reported the news early. Bitcoin and other major cryptos slipped on bad news for Nvidia, Omkar Godbole reported.
Mantra, a project focused on real world assets, lost 90% of its value. Explanations varied (the company said it was due to “force liquidations” exchanges).
Meanwhile, EigenLayer, a restaking leader, rolled out a “slashing” feature meant to address security concerns (Sam Kessler reported). OKX, a major exchange, announced plans to set up in California following a $500 million settlement with the SEC over claims it operated previously in the U.S. without a money transmitter license. Cheyenne Ligon had that story.
In less good news, Kraken laid off “hundreds” of staff ahead of an expected IPO. And Coinbase became embroiled in a “front running controversy” linked to a curiously named token on its Base L2. Privacy advocates reacted with alarm to rumors that Binance was about to delist Zcash following a long decline in the value of privacy coins.
In D.C. news, Jesse Hamilton reported on a new wave of crypto lobbyists flooding the capital. Some asked if there are now too many trade groups and whether they really all could be effective.
Friends With Benefits, a buzzy social club for creative technologists, launched a new program to build Web3 products for music, film, publishing and other fun activities. (I wrote that one.)
Of course, there was plenty happening in the economy and markets (Trump’s disgust for Fed chair Powell fed into the unease). But, in crypto, it was pretty much business as usual. Fortunes won, fortunes lost, fortunes deferred.
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