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Bitcoin Longs Could See Wave of Liquidation Between $73.8K-$74.4K as ‘Treasury Basis Trade’ Unwinds

The worst fears for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are coming true, and that has raised the risk of bitcoin (BTC) falling below $74,000 in a move that could shake out leveraged long bets.
On Sunday, CoinDesk discussed the possibility of pronounced downside volatility in risk assets due to a potential unwinding of the Treasury market arbitrage bets, a dynamic that catalyzed the 2020 crash.
Per observers, the unwinding of the so-called carry trades, involving hedge funds exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities, has begun. That’s evident from the nearly 70 basis points rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 4.5%. The 30-year yield has seen a similar rise. Note that yields move in the opposite direction of prices and typically drop during risk aversion as investors seek refuge in government bonds.
«It’s all running vertical now with 30-year Treasury yields on the cusp of hitting the 5% mark. For some context, 10-year yields in the US were at a low of 3.88% on Monday. This points to further liquidation in Treasuries and that’s a sign that we are seeing distress in the parts of the market that we should not normally talk about i.e. funding, credit, repo,» ForexLive’s analyst Justin Low said in a market update discussing the implosion of the basis trade.
Low added that it’s «all going sideways at the moment» as a sharp rise in yields itself can have a far-reaching impact on markets, housing and the economy.
Stocks drop, BTC under pressure
Futures tied to the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, fell 2% amid increased volatility in the Treasury market. Bitcoin fell briefly below $75,000 early today and has since recovered to trade near $76,000, CoinDesk data showed.
The MOVE index, which represents the options-implied 30-day price turbulence in the Treasury market, jumped to 140, the highest since October 2023, according to data source TradingView.
The worsening of the risk sentiment has raised the risk of BTC falling to the $73.8K-$74.4K range, where holders of bullish long positions in the perpetual futures listed on major exchanges face liquidation risks, according to data tracked by analytics firm Hyblock Capital.
Liquidation represents the forced closure of positions by exchanges due to margin shortages. Large long liquidations often add to downside price volatility.
«We see long liquidation clusters (where we estimate liquidations to get triggered) at 73800-74400, 69800-70000, 66100-67700. In particular, if we hit 70k, we likely go down at least $200 more, taking the retail stop losses right below 70k and the liquidation levels liquidity,» Hyblock told CoinDesk.
On the higher side, Hyblock identified $80,900-$81,000, $85,500-$86,700, and $89,500-$92,600 as prominent zones for potential short liquidations.
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Canary Capital Files for Tron ETF With Staking Capabilities

Canary Capital is looking to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the price of Tron’s native token, TRX, according to a filing.
The hedge fund submitted a Form S-1 for the Canary Staked TRX ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday. As the name suggests, the fund — if approved — would stake portions of its holdings.
This would be done through third-party providers, with BitGo acting as custodian for the assets. The fund would track TRX’s spot price using CoinDesk Indices calculations.
A proposed ticker as well as the management fee for the product have not been shared yet.
Issuers had initially filed applications for spot ethereum (ETH) ETFs with the staking feature included but removed them in an amended filing later in order to receive approval from the SEC on their proposals.
While the SEC under former Chair Gary Gensler was strictly against staking, issuers have grown more hopeful that they will be able to add the feature to their spot ether funds, among others, with the appointment of crypto-friendly Chair Paul Atkins.
A decision on a February request from Grayscale to allow staking in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH) was postponed by the regulator just a few days ago.
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Feds Mistakenly Order Estonian HashFlare Fraudsters to Self-Deport Ahead of Sentencing

Just four months ahead of their criminal sentencing for operating a $577 million cryptocurrency mining Ponzi scheme, the two Estonian founders of HashFlare were seemingly mistakenly ordered to self-deport by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) — an instruction that directly contradicted a court order for the men to remain in Washington state until they are sentenced in August.
In a joint letter to the court last week, lawyers for Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin told District Judge Robert Lasnik of the Western District of Washington that both men had received “disturbing communications” from DHS ordering them to leave the country immediately.
“It is time for you to leave the United States,” an email to Potapenko and Turogin dated April 11 read. “DHS is terminating your parole. Do not attempt to remain in the United States — the federal government will find you. Please depart the United States immediately.”
The email, included with the letter filed last week, threatened both men with “criminal prosecution, civil fines, and penalties and any other lawful options available to the federal government” if they stayed in the country. It resembles emails that undocumented immigrants and U.S. citizens alike have received over the past few days.
Ironically, Potapenko and Turogin are not in the U.S. of their own volition — they were extradited from their native Estonia at the request of the U.S. Department of Justice in 2022 on an 18-count indictment tied to their HashFlare scheme. Though they initially pleaded not guilty to all charges, in February they both pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, and agreed to forfeit over $400 million in assets. They have both been in the Seattle area on bond since last July.
“Although there is nothing Ivan and Sergei would want more than to immediately go home, they understood that they are also under Court order to remain in King County,” wrote Mark Bini, a partner at Reed Smith LLP and lead counsel for Potenko, wrote in the pair’s joint letter to the court. Bini did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
In his letter, Bini said DHS’s emails had caused both Potapenko and Turogin «significant anxiety.”
“We and our clients have all seen recent news. Immigration authorities make mistakes, and individuals who should not be in custody end up in custody, sometimes even deported to places where they should not be deported,” Bini wrote.
Six days after Bini’s letter to the judge, the DOJ filed its own letter with the court saying that prosecutors had coordinated with DHS’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) division and secured a year-long deferral to the self-deportation order.
“This should provide ample time for the sentencing to take place,” the prosecution’s letter said.
DHS did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.
Potapenko and Turogin are slated to be sentenced on August 14 in Seattle. Their lawyers have said that they will request to be sentenced to time served, meaning no additional time in prison, and to be sent home to Estonia “immediately.”
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CoinDesk Weekly Recap: EigenLayer, Kraken, Coinbase, AWS

Following last week’s tariff-caused drama, this was a relatively quiet week in crypto. Bitcoin remained stable around $84k. The CoinDesk 20, which tracks about 80% of the market, was up about 4% in the last seven days — i.e. nothing historic.
Still, plenty happened. On Tuesday, much of crypto went offline because of a tech issue at AWS, showing how the decentralized economy isn’t always that decentralized. Shaurya Malwa reported the news early. Bitcoin and other major cryptos slipped on bad news for Nvidia, Omkar Godbole reported.
Mantra, a project focused on real world assets, lost 90% of its value. Explanations varied (the company said it was due to “force liquidations” exchanges).
Meanwhile, EigenLayer, a restaking leader, rolled out a “slashing” feature meant to address security concerns (Sam Kessler reported). OKX, a major exchange, announced plans to set up in California following a $500 million settlement with the SEC over claims it operated previously in the U.S. without a money transmitter license. Cheyenne Ligon had that story.
In less good news, Kraken laid off “hundreds” of staff ahead of an expected IPO. And Coinbase became embroiled in a “front running controversy” linked to a curiously named token on its Base L2. Privacy advocates reacted with alarm to rumors that Binance was about to delist Zcash following a long decline in the value of privacy coins.
In D.C. news, Jesse Hamilton reported on a new wave of crypto lobbyists flooding the capital. Some asked if there are now too many trade groups and whether they really all could be effective.
Friends With Benefits, a buzzy social club for creative technologists, launched a new program to build Web3 products for music, film, publishing and other fun activities. (I wrote that one.)
Of course, there was plenty happening in the economy and markets (Trump’s disgust for Fed chair Powell fed into the unease). But, in crypto, it was pretty much business as usual. Fortunes won, fortunes lost, fortunes deferred.
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