Uncategorized

The All-Important U.S. 10-Year Yield Is Moving in the Wrong Direction for Trump

Published

5 месяцев ago

8 апреля, 2025

admin

Monday’s trading session will go down as one of the most volatile since the COVID crash in March 2020, with global markets caught in the crossfire as the U.S. and China face off over tariffs and neither superpower shows any impulse to back down.

As equity markets teetered, the volatility spilled into every asset class. Bitcoin (BTC), for example, swung as much as 10% intraday. The real focus, however, is on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. That’s the so-called risk-free interest rate, which the Trump administration said it wants to lower as it looks to refinance trillions in national debt.

The yield dropped to 3.9% from 4.8% late last week after President Donald Trump bolstered trade tensions with sweeping import tariffs, boosting demand for the Treasury notes.

Bond prices typically rise, sending yields lower, when Wall Street turns risk averse. Unusually, as the risk-aversion increased on Monday, yields turned higher, jumping to 4.22%.

This spike wasn’t confined to the U.S. The U.K. experienced its sharpest rate jump since the Liz Truss-era pension crisis in October 2022, and yields rose globally, signaling growing instability and diminishing confidence in sovereign debt and currencies.

Ole S Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxobank, pointed to the scale of the move in long-dated Treasuries as a sign of something deeper potentially unfolding.

“U.S. Treasuries suffered a massive sell-off yesterday, with long yields rising the most since the turbulence during the pandemic outbreak—a possible sign of large holders of Treasuries, such as foreign holders, selling and repatriating their assets,» Hansen said in a post on X. «The 30-year U.S. Treasury benchmark rose from lows near 4.30% to as high as 4.65% yesterday, while the 10-year benchmark lifted back to 4.17% from a low near 3.85% the prior day.”

While Hansen pointed fingers at foreign selling, especially China, which is said to have offloaded $50 billion in Treasuries, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, challenged that narrative.

“No, foreigners were not selling Treasuries to punish the U.S. (Trump),” he wrote, pointing instead to a sharp rally in the Dollar Index (DXY), which climbed 2.2% in just three days.

“If China or other foreigners were selling Treasuries … they would have to convert those dollars to a foreign currency. Otherwise, selling Treasuries and leaving the money in dollars in a U.S. bank is pointless. If they sold enough Treasuries to swing yields … the subsequent selling of dollars … would have driven down the dollar. Instead, it rallied more than usual.

“This suggests that foreign money was moving into the U.S., not away from it … the selling was more domestic and more concerned about inflation.”

Despite these views, unconfirmed reports about China’s sales continue to circulate. As of January 2025, China still held approximately $761 billion in U.S. government debt, the largest owner after Japan.

The narrative that the 10-year and 30-year yields surged on Chinese is unconvincing because most of the official Chinese investments in dollar-denominated assets are not in longer duration instruments, but agency bonds, shorter-term bills and bank deposits.

There is a perception China can gain leverage in the trade war through its holdings of U.S. Treasury notes. That’s not necessarily true.

As the economist and author of «The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy» Michael Pettis has long argued, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds are directly linked to its current account surplus and it cannot weaponize these holdings against the U.S.

It’s no surprise that China has been lightening up its Treasury investments since 2013 with its current account surplus peaking during the 2008 crash.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

24 часа ago

16 сентября, 2025

admin

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

24 часа ago

16 сентября, 2025

admin

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Business

Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Published

1 день ago

16 сентября, 2025

admin

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.