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Bitcoin’s Price Stability at Risk From Potential ‘Basis Trade Blowup’ That Catalyzed the COVID Crash

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent stability amid Nasdaq turmoil driven by tariffs has generated excitement among market participants regarding the cryptocurrency’s potential as a haven asset. Still, the bulls might want to keep an eye on the bond market where dynamics that characterized the COVID crash of March 2020 may be emerging.
Nasdaq, Wall Street’s tech-heavy index known to be positively correlated to bitcoin, has dropped 11% since President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced reciprocal tariffs on 180 nations, escalating trade tensions and drawing retaliatory levies from China. Other U.S. indices and global markets have also taken a beating alongside sharp losses in the risk currencies like the Australian dollar and a pullback in gold.
BTC has largely remained stable, continuing to trade above $80,000, and its resilience is being viewed as a sign of its evolution into a macro hedge.
«The S&P 500 is down roughly 5% this week as investors brace for trade-driven earnings headwinds. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has shown impressive resilience. After briefly dipping below $82,000, it rebounded quickly, reinforcing its status as a macro hedge in times of macroeconomic stress. Its relative strength could continue to attract institutional inflows if broad market volatility persists,» David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in an email.
The perception of stability could quickly transform into a self-fulfilling prophecy, solidifying BTC’s position as a haven asset for years to come, as MacroScope noted on X.
Treasury basis trade risks
However, sharp downside volatility in the short term cannot be ruled out, especially as the «Treasury market basis trade» faces risks due to heightened turbulence in bond prices.
The basis trade involves highly leveraged hedge funds, reportedly operating at leverage ratios of 50-to-1, exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities. This trade blew up in mid-March 2020 as coronavirus threatened to derail the global economy, leading to a «dash for cash» that saw investors sell almost every asset for dollar liquidity. On March 12, 2020, BTC fell by nearly 40%.
«When market volatility spikes — as it is now — it unearths highly leveraged carry trades vulnerable to big market moves. The blowup in the US Treasury market in March 2020, which disrupted basis carry trades, is a recent example. Risk of leveraged carry trade blowups is high…,» Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance, said.
The risk is real because, the size of the basis trade as of March end was $1 trillion, double the tally in March 2020. The positioning is such that a one basis point move in Treasury yields (which move opposite to prices) would lead to a $600 million shift in the value of their bets, according to ZeroHedge.
So, increased volatility in the Treasury yields could cause a COVID-like blowup, leading to a widespread selling of all assets, including bitcoin, to obtain cash.
On Friday, the MOVE index, which represents the options-based implied or expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, jumped 12% to 125.70, the highest since Nov. 4, according to data source TradingView.
The gravity of the situation is underscored by a recent Brookings Institution paper, which advises the Federal Reserve to consider targeted interventions in the U.S. Treasury market, specifically supporting hedge funds engaged in basis trading during times of severe market stress.
Let’s see how things unfold in the week ahead.
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.
The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.
Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.
The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.
Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.
«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.
Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says
Business
Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.
The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.
On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.
The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.
Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.
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