The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is likely to bring down inflation in the U.S. economy, key sections of the financial market indicate, offering bullish cues to risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).

In his inaugural address on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump promised to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,» and then fired the first shot against China, Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Since then, the trade tensions have escalated to such an extent that as of writing, the U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other in excess of 100%.

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which are then passed on to the consumer and could lead to higher general price level in a consumption-driven economy like the U.S.

Consequently since the trade war broke out, markets have been worried about a tariffs-led resurgence in the U.S. inflation, with the Fed adding to those concerns through its stagflationary economic projections last month. Stagflation, representing a combination of low growth, high inflation and joblessness, is seen as the worst outcome for riskier assets.

Bitcoin, therefore, has dropped nearly 20% since early February, alongside broad-based risk aversion on Wall Street that has seen investors concurrently dump stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar.

Breakevens suggest disinflation

However, market-based measures of inflation, such as the breakevens, suggest tariffs could be disinflationary over the long run. In other words, the Fed might be wrong in fearing stagflation and will soon have a leeway to cut rates.

Inflation breakevens the yields on traditional Treasury bonds with the yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The five-year breakeven inflation rate peaked above 2.6% in early February and has since dropped to 2.32%, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The 10-year breakeven rate has dropped from 2.5% to 2.19%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s expected two-year inflation has held at around 2.6%.

One time cost

According to observers, the impact of tariffs, viewed as a one-time cost adjustment, relies on the reactions of other macroeconomic variables and tends to be disinflationary in the long run.

When producers pass the tariff increase onto consumers, inflation levels rise. However, if there is no corresponding increase in income, consumers are compelled to reduce their consumption. This reduction can lead to inventory build-up and ultimately contribute to a decline in the prices of goods and services.

«Since the days of Smoot-Hawley, Tariffs have never been inflationary. Rather they are Deflationary and «stimulative themselves». Moreover, the disinflation shown in these charts will help encourage the Fed to soon ease as well. The Calvary is coming!,» Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter and a Wall Street veteran with four decades of experience, said on X.

A paper published by American economist Ravi Batra in 2001 made a similar observation, saying, «Tariffs in the US were never associated with rising prices, and trade liberalization with declining prices. High tariffs were always followed by sharp drops in the cost of living. tariffs produce inflation only in nonmarket or ualistic developing economies, but not inadvanced economies.»

All things considered, the recent financial market turbulence likely resulted from growth fears rather than inflation. The bull could soon reemerge in anticipation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, with the latter raising tariffs on the former from 84% to 125% this morning, bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market appear relatively unfazed.

Bitcoin is down a mere 0.15% over the last 24 hours, and China’s recent escalation hasn’t stopped its ongoing recovery. The cryptocurrency is now trading above $82,000. The wider crypto market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, is stable with similar performance.

The same can’t be said about other assets. Gold rose to a new $3,227.5 record making Tether’s XAUT — a gold-backed cryptocurrency — the top-performing digital asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 100 after enduring its biggest drop since 2022. At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasuries kept rising to now stand near 4.4%.

“The question of a potential dollar confidence crisis has now been definitively answered — we are experiencing one in full force,” ING strategists, including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note reported on by The Telegraph.

Inflation in the U.S. actually declined at the headline level last month, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates at its next meeting. Still, the market may have interpreted the lower figures as potentially waning demand, deepening the crisis.

That “confidence crisis” is seemingly seeing every asset gain against the dollar, except crypto. Bitcoin investors realized losses of up to $250 million over 6-hour windows during the recent drop, according to Glassnode, which points out that “realized losses are shrinking — suggesting early signs of seller exhaustion.” Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading» in Washington.

April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing on Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for operator misconduct.

Macro

April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.

Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%

Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%

PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%

PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%

April 11, 12:01 p.m.: China’s tariff on imported goods originating from the U.S. will increase from 84% to 125%.

April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market

April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Spartan Council is voting on increasing the liquidation ratio for SNX solo stakers, with an initial increase to 250% on April 11, to 500% on April 18, and “high enough to deprecate solo SNX staking” on April 21. Voting ends on April 19.

Lido DAO is discussing onboarding credit delegation protocol Twyne into the Lido Alliance. Twyne aims to expand stETH’s use cases, while it’s requesting strategic endorsement, promotional support and technical guidance from Lido.

GMX DAO is discussing the deployment of GMX V2 Botanix’s Spiderchain, which it describes as being “positioned as the first bitcoin Layer 2 designed to unlock bitcoin DeFi.”

April 11, 9 a.m.: Lombard is holding an X Spaces session on Institutional Bitcoin Staking Partnership.

April 11, 12 p.m.: Avalanche to hold a call on Revolutionizing Blockchain Privacy with Encrypted Tokens.

April 11, 3 p.m.: Zcash to host a town hall on lockbox distribution & governance.

April 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a livestream with recent announcements from the project.

Unlocks

April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $53.83 million.

April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $21.82 million.

April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $16.69 million.

April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $27.12 million.

April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $326.78 million.

April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating supply worth $80.6 million.

Token Launches

April 11: Tether Gold (XAUT) to be listed on Bybit.

April 14: KernelDAO (KERNEL) to be listed on Binance, Gate.io, LBank, KuCoin, MEXC, and others.

April 16: Badger (BADGER), Balacner (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), Cortex (CTXC), Cream Finance (CREAM), Firo (FIRO), Kava Lend (KAVA), NULS (NULS), Prosper (PROS), Status (SNT), TROY (TROY), UniLend Finance (UFT), VIDT DAO (VIDT), and aelf (ELF) to be delisted from Binance.

April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.

Conferences:

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 2 of 2: BITE-CON 2025 Conference (Miami)

Day 2 of 2: 2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference (Philadelphia)

Day 1 of 2: Strategy’s OPNEXT Conference (Tysons, Va.)

April 12: Ethereum Argentina (Córdoba)

April 12-13: DeSci London 2025

April 14: ETH Seoul 2025 Conference

April 14: FinTech and InsurTech Digital Congress 2025 (Warsaw)

April 14-16: Morocco WEB3FEST GITEX Edition (Marrakech)

April 14-26: Solana Economic Zone (SEZ) Dubai 2025

April 15: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit (online)

April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

April 15-16: World Financial Innovation Series 2025 (Hanoi, Vietnam)

April 15-17: NexTech Week Tokyo

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight

A stablecoin (sUSD) tied to decentralized derivatives exchange Synthetix suffered a depeg on Friday, tumbling down to $0.86. The depeg stemmed from a governance proposal named SIP-420, which involved shifting Synthetix from individual staking to pooled staking.

The proposal meant that 2.5 times more sUSD would be minted per staked synthetix (SNX) token, but it also meant that stakers had no incentive to buy sUSD as all debt sat on the staking pool as opposed to individual wallets.

The Synthetix team said on Discord that it will «continue to increase incentives for Curve pools,» and that «the sUSD peg is critical. «An MEV (Miner Extractable Value) bot named «Yoink» exploited weaknesses in Wayfinder’s PROMPT token airdrop, using a front-running strategy (reordering transactions to jump ahead of legitimate claims) to steal approximately 119 ETH (or $200,000 at current prices) from Kaito users. Onchain data shows the bot swapped claimed tokens for ETH, draining funds until the airdrop was paused.

Wayfinder, an AI blockchain project, launched the PROMPT token airdrop for users who staked PRIME (Echelon Prime’s governance token) or earned “Yaps” on Kaito, a platform that analyzes social media for crypto insights. The bot targeted Kaito “Yappers” who completed social missions, with TokenTable halting claims to fix the issue and promising user compensation.

MEV attacks, where malicious actors manipulate Ethereum transaction ordering for profit, are increasingly sophisticated with AI-driven bots like Yoink. TokenTable confirmed the smart contract’s security, is addressing failed transactions, and will provide a detailed report once the claim process resumes.

Derivatives Positioning

On most exchanges, notional open interest in BTC futures has increased more than the cryptocurrency’s price in the past 24 hours, suggesting an influx of new money as the market looks to carve out a bottom.

A similar pattern is seen in SOL and DOGE futures, while traders remain cautious in the ETH and XRP futures markets.

Funding rates for the top 25 coins remain between 0% to 10%, suggesting cautiously bullish sentiment.

BTC’s options-based implied volatility term structure has normalized, while ETH’s remains in backwardation, indicating fears of outsized price volatility in the short term.

Flows have been mixed on Deribit, with call spreads booked in BTC and SOL put rolling via OTC platform Paradigm.

Market Movements:

BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $82,013.36 (24hrs: +0.81%)

ETH is up 1.9% at $1,559.54 (24hrs: +5.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 3.43% at 2,379.04 (24hrs: +0.64%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 17 bps at 3.4%

BTC funding rate is at -0.0018% (-2.0049% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 1.1% at 99.75

Gold is up 2.51% at $3,234.50/oz

Silver is up 1.79% at $31.22/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -2.96% at 33,585.58

Hang Seng closed +1.13% at 20,914.69

FTSE is down 0.51% at 7,872.98

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.72% at 4,736.11

DJIA closed on Thursday -2.5% at 39,593.66

S&P 500 closed -3.46% at 5,268.05

Nasdaq closed -4.31% at 16,387.31

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -3% at 23,014.90

S&P 40 Latin America closed -3.2% at 2,255.64

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.4%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 5,281.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.44% at 18,403.00

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.4% at 39,637.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.55 (0.50%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01898 (-0.78%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 901 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $42.4

Total Fees: 5.2 BTC / $424,070

CME Futures Open Interest: 129,830

BTC priced in gold: 25.5/oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.24

Technical Analysis

BTC’s 30-day momentum indicator, measuring the rate of change in prices over four weeks, has recently turned up, diverging from the weakness in prices.

The indicator’s divergence, coupled with Wednesday’s bullish outside day candle, suggests the path of least resistance is to the higher side.

A potential move past the descending trendline would open doors to resistance at $88,000 (the late March high), followed by $92,000, which acted as strong support early this year.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $272.34 (-8.26%), up 4.48% at $284.54 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $169.62 (-4.22%), up 2.46% at $173.80

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$14.35 (-5.53%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.74 (-4.63%), up 4.17% at $12.23

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.79 (-7.99%), up 2.65% at $6.97

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.82 (-9.19%), up 2.79% at $7.01

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.13 (-6.55%), up 3.51% at $7.38

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.01 (-8.04%), up 4.08% at $12.50

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.63 (-7.2%), up 4.17% at $33.99

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.07 (-4.80%), down 0.41% at $40.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$149.5 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.46 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.10 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$38.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.32 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, analysts anticipate that Beijing will devalue the yuan to counter Trump’s tariffs, potentially leading to a capital flight into bitcoin.

Options market, however, shows no signs of hedging downside risks in yuan in anticipation of a major devaluation.

The 25-delta risk reversal for the USD/CNH was slightly above 1, representing a moderate bias for calls that would protect from yuan devaluation. Higher values were observed ahead of the previous yuan devaluation episodes of 2015 and 2016, according to The Brookings Institution’s Senior Fellow Robin Brooks.

While You Were Sleeping

S&P 500 More Volatile Than Bitcoin as U.S. Assets Lose Investor Favor (CoinDesk): Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, S&P 500 volatility has surged from 50% to 169% annualized, the highest since the 2020 COVID crash, according to TradingView.

Gold Rally Makes Tether’s XAUT Top-Performing Digital Asset as Crypto Markets Remain Flat (CoinDesk): XAUT gained over 3% in 24 hours as crypto traders rotated into gold-backed tokens amid concerns over the U.S. budget deficit and unpredictable policy from the White House.

Ripple and SEC File Joint Motion to Pause Appeals (CoinDesk): The two parties reached an agreement in principle to resolve all remaining issues, including appeals and claims involving Ripple founders Garlinghouse and Larsen, according to attorney James Filan.

Bitcoin’s Recent Drawdown Proves Its More Than Just a Leveraged Tech Play (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s three-month decline is milder than in 2021–22, signaling greater stability, and ranks mid-pack among tech peers, outperforming Tesla and NVIDIA and matching Apple, Meta and Amazon.

Gold Bolts Past Key $3,200 Mark on Dollar Slide, Safe-Haven Flows (Reuters): Investor rotation out of U.S. stocks and Treasuries on tariff fears is pressuring the dollar and driving global demand for gold, according to Tastylive’s head of global macro.

BOJ’s Retreat From Bond Buying Spurs Bid to Lure Foreigners (Bloomberg): Officials are pitching Japanese bonds abroad more aggressively as domestic demand wanes, stressing stronger yields, streamlined trading access, and a steady economic outlook to attract new buyers.

China Unlikely To Aggressively Devalue Yuan to Offset Impact of U.S. Tariffs, Economists Say (CNBC): Analysts expect China to rely on stimulus and gradual yuan weakening to steady markets, warning that sharp moves risk triggering capital flight like in 2015 and broader financial instability.

In the Ether

The Dollar index (DXY), which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, has dropped below the 100 mark for the first time since April 2022.

In January, research from CoinDesk noted that the DXY index was mirroring the pattern seen during President Trump’s first term — and it now appears to have done just that. The index has fallen over 10% from its recent high of 110 and is now at its lowest level in three years.

Investor sentiment continues to shift away from U.S. assets, putting further downward pressure on the dollar, as trade tensions between the U.S. and China intensify.

Just before press time, China announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. goods, raising the total levy to 125% from 84%, signaling a firm stance in the ongoing trade dispute.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC), which has recently behaved as a low-beta asset compared to equities, remains resilient and continues to trade above $81,000.