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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Sets Markets on Edge
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.
A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.
While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.
Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.
Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the «Magnificent 7» tech stocks. Here’s how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)’s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.
Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
Macro
April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.
Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.
April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
No earnings scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.
Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.
April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.
April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.
April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.
April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
Unlocks
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.
April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.
April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.
Token Listings
April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 1 of 2: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
Day 1 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
President Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.
Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.
A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.
Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.
However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.
That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.
Derivatives Positioning
Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.
Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.
In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz
Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07
Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.62
Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%
Technical Analysis
The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.
The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.
A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.
U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.
Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as ‘Potential Resolution’ in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.
U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.
In the Ether
A key crypto bill has opened a rift among Senate Democrats as another big test approaches for the viability of legislation to regulate stablecoin issuers. Most expect the bill to clear a significant procedural vote on Monday night, but Democrats are split.
The Senate’s most prominent crypto critic, Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren, is leading a faction trying to dig in their heels on the bill, raising objections that include national security threats, consumer hazards and the corruption of a White House that’s conflicted because of President Donald Trump’s own digital assets business interests.
The other group, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, one of the bill’s primary backers, has argued that presidential conflicts are already illegal under the U.S. Constitution, and the bill doesn’t need to have specific constraints added to clarify that point. That side also praises a number of changes to the legislation to improve consumer protections and to partially address worries that large corporations will issue stablecoins — the steady, typically dollar-based tokens that underpin so much of the crypto markets’ transaction activity.
The bill is set for what’s known as a cloture vote on Monday night, which will decide whether it advances into a formal and time-limited period of debate before final consideration. Cloture tends to be the most difficult test for Senate legislation, because it requires 60 votes — much more than a simple majority. A previous version of the bill failed such a vote once before, when Democrats demanded more time to make changes.
The stablecoin bill is one of two highly significant U.S. legislative efforts that will finally establish a set of rules and system of oversight for crypto in the U.S., and many in the industry believe it’ll usher in a flood of interest from investors who’ve waited on the sidelines until the sector is completely regulated. The supporters of the stablecoin legislation have set it up for this vote, suggesting they were able to wrangle enough backers to triumph.
The current Senate bill — known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — is worse than doing nothing, according to the arguments from the camp led by Warren, who is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. «A strong bill would ensure that consumers enjoy the same consumer protections when using stablecoins as they do when using other payment systems, close loopholes that enable the illicit use of stablecoins by cartels, terrorists, and criminals, and reduce the risk that stablecoins take down our financial system,» according to a sheet issued on Monday by the committee’s Democratic staff. «The GENIUS Act does not meet those minimum standards.»
Gillibrand, however, said the bill has been written in a «truly bipartisan effort.»
«Stablecoins are already playing an important role in the global economy, and it is essential that the U.S. enact legislation that protects consumers, while also enabling responsible innovations,” the New York Democrat said in a statement last week.
Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, also explained his view in choosing to support the bill. “It sets high standards for issuers, limits big tech overreach and creates a safer, more transparent framework for digital assets,» he said in a statement. «It’s not perfect, but it’s far better than the status quo.”
Read More: U.S. Stablecoin Bill Could Clear Senate Next Week, Proponents Say
In the hours before the planned Monday vote, a coalition of 46 consumer, labor and advocacy groups continued objecting to the legislation, which has been overhauled repeatedly.
«A vote for this legislation would enable and condone cryptobusiness activities by the Trump administration, organization, and family that raise unprecedented concerns about presidential conflicts of interest, corruption, and the abuse of public office for private gain,» they wrote in a letter to the Senate leadership.
The crypto industry itself has come together to support the legislation, with various lobbyist groups publishing statements arguing lawmakers should advance the legislation. Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-backed group focused on getting voters to support crypto issues, warned lawmakers in a statement Monday that their votes would go into its sometimes arbitrary assignment of grades for politicians’ crypto sentiment.
While the stablecoin bill has drawn some political heat, it’s widely expected to be the easier of the two crypto efforts on Capitol Hill. The legislation to establish U.S. market rules for crypto is much more complex. For both bills, the House of Representatives is also working on parallel efforts.
If the bill clears cloture, it could speed toward Senate passage in a matter of days. Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with TD Cowen, expects it to clear the Senate this week
“That means it could become law by summer as we see the House moving quickly on the bill,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Warren wrote her own letter on Monday to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice, pressing for answers about what’s being done about North Korean hackers who stole more than a billion dollars in assets from exchange Bybit earlier this year.
«These stolen assets have helped keep the regime afloat and supported continued investments in its nuclear and conventional weapons programs,» Warren and Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, wrote to the Treasury secretary and attorney general. «Reports suggest there are potentially thousands of North Korean-affiliated crypto hackers around the globe.”
Cryptocurrencies regained footing on Monday after a rocky start to the trading session, mirroring a broader recovery in risk assets as traders digested Moody’s downgrade of U.S. government bonds.
Bitcoin BTC notched a strong rebound after slipping to as low as $102,000 early in the U.S. session, following its record weekly close at $106,600 overnight. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap climbed back to $105,000 in afternoon trading, up 0.4% over 24 hours. Ether ETH rose 1.2%, reclaiming the $2,500 level.
DeFi lending platform Aave AAVE outperformed most large-cap altcoins, while the majority of the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index members still remained in the red despite advancing from their daily lows. Solana SOL, Avalanche AVAX and Polkadot DOT were down 2%-3%.
The bounce extended to U.S. stocks, too, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erasing their morning decline.
The early pullback in crypto and stocks came after Moody’s late Friday downgraded the U.S. credit rating from its AAA status. The move rattled bond markets, pushing 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and the 10-year note to over 4.5%.
Still, some analysts downplayed the downgrade’s long-term impact on asset prices.
«What does [the downgrade] mean for markets? Longer-term – really nothing,» said Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of wealth management firm Lumida Wealth. He added that in the short term there might be some selling pressure centered on U.S. Treasuries due to large institutional investors rebalancing, as some of them are mandated to hold assets only in AAA-rated securities.
«Moody’s is the last of the three major rating agencies to downgrade U.S. debt. This was the opposite of a surprise – it was a long time coming,» Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said in an X post. «That’s why stock investors don’t seem to care.»
Bitcoin targets $138K this year
While BTC hovers just below its January record prices, digital asset ETF issuer 21Shares sees more upside for this year.
«Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout,» research strategist Matt Mena wrote in a Monday report. He argued that BTC’s current rally is driven not by retail mania, but by a confluence of structural forces, including institutional inflows, a historic supply crunch and improving macro conditions that suggests a more durable and mature path to fresh all-time highs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently absorbed more BTC than is mined daily, tightening supply while major institutions, corporations such as Strategy and newcomer Twenty One Capital accumulate and even states explore creating strategic reserves.
These factors combined could lift BTC to $138,500 this year, Mena forecasted, translating to a roughly 35% rally for the largest crypto.
Clients of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will soon have the option to buy bitcoin BTC, according to CEO Jamie Dimon, who spoke at the bank’s annual Investor Day on Monday, signaling a shift in how the firm approaches the asset.
“We are going to allow you to buy it,” Dimon told shareholders, though he added the bank has no plans to hold the asset in custody.
Dimon, long known for his skepticism of cryptocurrency, doubled down in his closing remarks, saying he’s still “not a fan” of bitcoin, mainly because of its use for illegal activities, including sex trafficking and money laundering
He also pushed back on the industry’s hype around blockchain technology, arguing it’s less important than it’s made out to be — even as JPMorgan continues building in the space.
“We have been talking about blockchain for 12 to 15 years,» he said. «We spend too much on it. It doesn’t matter as much as you all think.»
The bank’s own blockchain platform, Kinexys, recently ran a test transaction on a public blockchain for the first time, settling tokenized U.S. Treasuries on Ondo Chain’s testnet.
Senate Dems Gear Up Resistance as Stablecoin Bill Meets Test Most Think Will Succeed
Bitcoin Climbs to $105K; Crypto ETF Issuer Sees 35% Upside
JPMorgan To Allow Clients To Buy Bitcoin, Says Jamie Dimon
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