Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Sets Markets on Edge
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.
A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.
While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.
Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.
Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the «Magnificent 7» tech stocks. Here’s how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)’s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.
Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
Macro
April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.
Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.
April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
No earnings scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.
Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.
April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.
April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.
April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.
April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
Unlocks
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.
April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.
April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.
Token Listings
April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 1 of 2: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
Day 1 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
President Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.
Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.
A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.
Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.
However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.
That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.
Derivatives Positioning
Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.
Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.
In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.
Market Movements
BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz
Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07
Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $47.62
Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%
Technical Analysis
The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.
The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.
A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.
U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.
Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as ‘Potential Resolution’ in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.
U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.
In the Ether
Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.
On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.
The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.
With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.
The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.
Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.
Memecoins drop, broader market bid
SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.
The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.
According to the technical analysis model:
- SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
- The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
- Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
- Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
- Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.
Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment
Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.
A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to dominate markets, both crypto and traditional, in the coming week. Traders are positioned for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points when the Fed announces its decision on Sept. 17, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Sept. 16, 12 p.m. ET: Solana AMA on X.
- Sept. 18: Mavryk Network launches its mainnet and native MVRK token.
- Sept. 18: Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF expected to begin trading on Cboe BZX Exchange under ticker DOJE.
- Sept. 18: Unipoly Chain (UNP) mainnet launch.
- Macro
- Sept. 16: Brazil July unemployment rate Est. N/A (Prev. 5.8%).
- Sept. 16: Canada August headline CPI YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 1.7%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.3%); core YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 2.6%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%).
- Sept. 16: U.K. July unemployment rate Est. 4.7%.
- Sept. 17: U.K. August headline CPI YoY Est. 3.9%. MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%); core YoY Est. 3.7%, MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.2%).
- Sept. 17: Canada benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 2.75%) followed by a press conference.
- Sept. 17: The Fed’s FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates. Est: 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% followed by a press conference.
- Sept. 17: Brazil benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 15%).
- Sept. 18: Bank of England decision on U.K. interest rates. Est: unchanged at 4%.
- Sept. 19: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision. Est: unchanged at 0.5%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Sept. 18: Lite Strategy (MEIP), pre-market
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Curve DAO is voting to changes to donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts. Voting ends Sept. 16.
- Sept. 16: Aster Network to host a community call.
- MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18
- Sept. 18, 6 a.m.: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind, a monthly townhall series.
- Sept. 16, 12 p.m.:Kava to host a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
- Sept. 23: SwissBorg to make a live announcement.
- Unlocks
- Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.09 million.
- Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $18.06 million.
- Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $48.16 million.
- Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
- Sept. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $89.8 million
- Sept. 20: Velo (VELO) to unlock 13.63% of its circulating supply worth $43.39 million.
- Sept. 20: KAITO (KAITO) to unlock 3.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
- Token Launches
- Sept. 15: OpenLedger (OPENLEDGER) to be listed on Crypto.com.
- Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the delayed upgrade penalty takes effect.
- Sept. 20: Reserve Rights (RSR) to conduct a token burn.
- Sept. 22: Falcon Finance to host community sale on Buidlpad.
Conferences
- Sept.12-15: ETHTokyo 2025 (Tokyo, Japan)
- Sept. 15: TGE Summit 2025 (New York)
- Sept. 15-21: Budapest Blockchain Week 2025 (Budapest, Hungary)
- Sept. 16-17: Real-World Asset Summit (New York)
- Sept. 17: The Bitcoin Treasuries NYC Unconference (New York)
- Sept. 17-19: AIBC 2025 (Tokyo, Japan)
- Sept. 18: CBC Summit USA (Washington)
- Sept. 19: DEF-AI 2025 (Tblisi, Georgia)
- Sept. 17-20: Nomad Capitalist Live 2025 (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)
- Sept. 21: XRP Seoul 2025 (Seoul, South Korea)
Uncategorized
Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group
The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.
The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).
According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.
The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.
The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.
However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.
Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.
Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.
The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.
Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.
Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack
Fed Rate Decision, MKR-SKY Conversion Deadline: Crypto Week Ahead
Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group
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