Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Trump Tariff Threat Casts Shadow Over Buoyant Bitcoin Price
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin is building momentum, rising over 2% on the day to over $84,000, with memecoins leading the market higher, followed by tokens associated with artificial intelligence and gaming. In traditional markets, gold set another record, surpassing $3,140, and futures linked to major U.S. equity indices are pointing to a positive open.
President Donald Trump pledged a «very kind» yet firm approach toward all trading partners ahead of Wednesday’s planned reciprocal tariffs announcement.
Still, market flows reveal nervousness likely stemming from tariff uncertainty. An aggressive move could ratchet up inflation expectations, which would lower risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.
Reports suggest that the Treasury and other federal agencies are expected to disclose their holdings of bitcoin and other tokens on April 5, That’s in accordance with the March 11 document that called for such an action within 30 days of Trump’s March 6 decision to issue an executive order to form a strategic crypto reserve.
Still, some indicators call for caution. For instance, bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is approaching the negative zone, according to crypto research firm Alphractal. «Out of the four times this has happened, three led to bearish movements, while one had no significant effect,» the firm said.
BTC’s apparent demand by 30-day change, derived from the flow of coins into exchanges and adjusted for factors including net outflows, now shows the most negative values in over a year, according to data source CryptoQuant.
Speaking of the broader market, decentralized AI data liquidity network Vana unveiled the VRC-20 data token standard for fair and transparent data token transactions. «For data markets to work, tokens must be reliable, secure, and useful. As a universal standard for data-backed tokens, VRC-20 delivers this by ensuring fair and transparent data token trading,» Vana said on X.
Elsewhere, the MOVE Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility for the U.S. Treasury notes, is rising. A volatile Treasury market often causes financial tightening worldwide, leading to reduced demand for risk assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 1: ONINO (ONI) will have its mainnet launch.
April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
Macro
April 1, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
Manufacturing PMI Prev. 53
April 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases Canada March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
Manufacturing PMI Prev. 47.8
April 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.8 vs. Prev. 52.7
April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases February JOLTs report (job openings, hires, and separations).
Job Openings Est. 7.63M vs. Prev. 7.74M
Job Quits Prev. 3.266M
April 1, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases March U.S. manufacturing sector data.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 50.3
April 2: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 becomes effective.
April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
No earnings scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed via a “33/33/33 split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde & Myso, and Gauntlet.” It’s also voting on allocating 10 million ARB into “on-chain strategies designed to generate yield while safeguarding the principal.” Voting ends April 3.
Sky DAO is discussing increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate after a recent executive proposal “resulted in substantial increase to net revenue.”
Unlocks
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $143.15 million.
April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $12.85 million.
April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $14.07 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $112.67 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.23 million.
Token Listings
April 1: Bybit to delist CEL, MXM, ZEND, CTT, BONUS, LGX, PLT
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
A hacker involved in February’s multimillion exploit of the zkLend DeFi protocol said they inadvertently sent their stolen funds to a phishing site posing as mixing service Tornado Cash.
The hacker lost all 2,930 ETH stolen from zkLend to the apparent phishing attack, according to Lookchain and blockchain data.
They then sent an on-chain message via Etherscan to zkLend apologizing for the «havoc and losses caused,» claimed to no longer hold the stolen funds and urged zkLend to redirect recovery efforts toward the phishing site’s operators.
Market watchers expressed skepticism, suggesting the alleged phishing site was set up by the hacker in an attempt to shift scrutiny away from the attackers’ known wallets to the address that purportedly ended up thieving the thief.
zkLend responded by requesting the hacker to return any remaining funds. The protocol has been actively working on fund recovery, having launched a «Recovery Portal» on March 5, to compensate affected users, and is collaborating with security teams, centralized exchanges and authorities to trace the stolen assets.
Derivatives Positioning
Open interest in futures tied to TON, TRX, HYPE, SHIB and XMR has increased in the past 24 hours while the remaining major coins, including BTC, saw a drop in open bets.
Perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH and most other top coins remain below an annualized 5%, indicating cautiously bullish sentiment.
Deribit’s BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for short- and near-dated puts with bullishness seen only from July expiry.
Market Movements
BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $84,236.71 (24hrs: +2.47%)
ETH is up 3.34% at $1,880.62(24hrs: +3.34%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.16% at 2,579.16 (24hrs: +5.15%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 10 bps at 3.03%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0032% (3.5150% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 104.12
Gold is up 1.18% at $3,159.80/oz
Silver is up 0.99% at $34.80/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 35,624.48
Hang Seng closed +0.38% at 23,206.84
FTSE is up 0.9% at 8,660.19
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% at 5,311.30
DJIA closed on Monday +1% at 42,001.76
S&P 500 closed +0.55% at 5,611.85
Nasdaq closed -0.14% at 17,299.29
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.64% at 24,917.50
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,406.22
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.185%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,656.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% at 19,482.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 42,207.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.18 (-0.21%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02236 (1.31%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 835.3 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $46.93
Total Fees: 4.9 BTC / $406,290
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,210 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 26.8 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.6%
Technical Analysis
BTC has moved past the yellow trendline, confirming an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout to suggest the path of least resistance is on the higher side.
The 24-hour simple moving average is now trending north, indicating a renewed upward momentum.
Prices could rise toward the descending (white) trendline resistance, currently at $87,200.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $288.27 (-0.39%), up 2.54% at $295.60 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $172.23 (-0.98%), up 1.78% at $175.30
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.17 (-7.78%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.50 (-7.78%), up 2.7% at $11.81
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.12 (-3.91%), up 1.69% at $7.22
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.24 (-3.21%), up 0.83% at $7.30
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $6.72 (-6.54%), up 3.13% at $6.93
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.77 (-2.74%), down 2.51% at $12.80
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.20 (-1.79%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.74 (-4.39%), up 2.25% at $46.77
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$60.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.27 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $6.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Tron, BNB Chain and Celo are the past year’s top three blockchains by the number of active stablecoin addresses.
Ethereum lags even though the stablecoin supply on the smart-contract blockchain recently surged to all-time high over $132 billion.
While You Were Sleeping
China Kicks Off Military Drills Near Taiwan, Warns Island’s ‘Independence’ Means War (CNBC): China said its military actions were punishment for Taiwan’s leadership, simulating multidirectional encirclement and coordinated strikes on key areas to demonstrate combat readiness.
Ethereum Reclaims No. 1 Spot as Leading DEX Chain for First Time Since September, Overtakes Solana (CoinDesk): Bearish market sentiment, particularly within the memecoin sector, led to a significant decline in activity on Solana-based platforms Raydium and Pump.fun.
Democrats Sue Trump Administration Over Election Executive Order (Reuters): The lawsuit says requiring voter citizenship proof and cutting funds for noncompliant states would unlawfully let presidents reshape election rules to protect their own political interests.
Gold Hits Record as Trump’s Trade Threats Fan Haven Demand (Bloomberg): Spot gold, up 19% in the first quarter, hit $3,149 as investors braced for retaliation over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan, which will be unveiled Wednesday.
RBA Keeps Rates on Hold as It Points to Trade War Threat (The Wall Street Journal): Australia’s central bank warned that stiffer U.S. tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions could drag on global growth by undermining confidence and prompting households and firms to delay spending decisions.
Metaplanet Ups Bitcoin Holding to Over 4K BTC, Adds Another 696 BTC (CoinDesk): The Japanese firm paid about $97,500 per bitcoin, raising the average cost of its holdings to roughly $86,500 per coin.
In the Ether
Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.
Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.
According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.
The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.
USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.
Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.
Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.
Market Movement
BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.
Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
Uncategorized
BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026
Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.
Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.
He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.
Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.
He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.
Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.
He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.
When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.
Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.
For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.
In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”
His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.
Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.
On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.
While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.
Debt supply
The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.
The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).
«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.
Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.
The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.
Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»
These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.
Stubborn inflation
Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.
When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.
Easing priced in?
Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.
According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.
«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.
Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.
Lesson from 2024
The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.
The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.
According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.
As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.
What it means for BTC?
While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.
However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.
Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K
Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote
BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026
Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch
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