Uncategorized
Bitcoin Headed Below $60K Says Hot-Handed Crypto Hedge Fund Manager
Bitcoin’s correction may just be getting started. In fact, the crypto sector as a whole could be facing a severe downtrend reminiscent of 2022.
“I could see us going back to a five handle by the end of the year,” Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk in an interview. A «five handle,» i.e. a price between $50,000 and $59,999, would be down substantially from the already shaky current $83,000 level and roughly a 50% decline from bitcoin’s peak just above $109,000 just more than two months ago.
“I don’t think it happens quickly, which is why it would be very painful and shocking to people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile, with big liquidations and crashes,” Thompson added. “It’s this sort of different market environment, a slow grind down that is almost more unbearable for people because they’re like, ‘Is it over? Is the bottom in?’”
Thompson, who had been bearish from far higher levels, has repeatedly called the White House’s crypto announcements — be it the Sovereign Wealth Fund or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or anything in-between — «nothingburgers» and “sell the news” events. He has also argued that Strategy’s (MSTR) constant bitcoin buys aren’t necessarily bullish for the cryptocurrency, since they seem to be the only significant bid.
The economy’s four headwinds
Central to Thompson’s thesis is the idea that the Trump administration’s various policies will likely hurt the economy for the next six to nine months.
First, the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), in its efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit, is bent on cutting government spending — which has been one of the largest drivers of job growth in recent years. The labour market was already wobbly when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, Thompson said, and the new government’s fiscal arm isn’t interested in propping things up anymore.
“People get caught up in the politics of it,” Thompson said. “We can disagree on whether we need the Department of Education or not. But those dollars were being printed and going into people’s pockets, and those people spent them, and went on vacation and to the grocery store. So it was growth positive.”
Elon Musk, the main force behind D.O.G.E, said last week that he was aiming to cut $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May; he also said he wanted to cut 15% of the government’s annual spending, meaning almost $7 trillion.
Even if D.O.G.E fails its stated objective and only manages to cut, say, a hundred billion over the course of four years, the bigger cuts are likely to occur at the beginning of Trump’s term, not the end, Thompson argued. This means that D.O.G.E’s impact on the economy and consumer sentiment is likely to be felt in the coming months, no matter whether the agency actually succeeds or not.
Second, the crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border — combined with the renewed emphasis on deportations — is bound to affect the labour market, Thompson said. Migration is growth positive because it puts pressure on wages; if that labour pool dries up, workers will demand higher salaries, which some businesses won’t be able to afford.
Thompson’s third issue is tariffs. The Trump administration keeps changing up its tariff threats on a day-to-day basis, sometimes promising new ones, sometimes calling them off, creating doubt as to whether the majority of proposed tariffs will actually ever go into effect. But the important thing about tariffs is that they create uncertainty for businesses, which may elect to delay investment or hiring decisions until the tariff situation is resolved.
Finally, the Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to loosen financial conditions because inflation data hasn’t been great. The U.S. central bank cut interest by a full percentage point at the end of 2024, to 4.25%-4.5%, and even that wasn’t enough to push bitcoin above $110,000. Thompson says he expects the Fed to cut anywhere between 25 and 75 basis points in 2025, but that these cuts will be spread out in the second half of the year.
“I think there’s a lot more coordination going on between the Treasury and the Fed than people want to believe,” Thompson said. “People thought Trump and [Fed chair] Powell would be bickering, but they’re actually kind of on the same team right now. [Secretary of Treasury] Bessent and Trump are bringing growth down, and that helps Powell achieve lower inflation.”
When will the bottom be?
With such headwinds working against risk-on assets like stocks and bitcoin, the crypto sector is unlikely to have a good year, Thompson said. The fact that the White House doesn’t seem overly concerned about a potential recession is also a strong signal, he said.
“Bessent is coming in saying, ‘We need to right the ship.’ And righting the ship means cutting off the juice that was powering these crazy asset prices. The direct result of their policies working is a lower stock market,” Thompson said.
But how long is Trump likely to maintain course? Until it becomes too painful and even Trump’s political base tells him to cut it out, or until the beginning of 2026 — you can’t be pushing a country into a recession with midterm elections coming up.
“I equate this to a controlled burn. They’re trying to purposefully clear the brush so that it doesn’t become a bigger problem. But sometimes controlled burns become forest fires,” Thompson said. “I think it’s going to be a long kind of slog through the year as they try to enact these policies.”
Uncategorized
Wall Street Volatility Gauge Hits 4.5-Year High, Traders Lift Rate-Cut Bets on China Tariffs
The VIX index, which shows the equity market’s expectations for 30-day volatility and is often called Wall Street’s «fear gauge,» rose to 39, the highest since October 2020, after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., data from TradingView show.
The increase, coupled with the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stock-index futures, prompted traders to increase estimates of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to 116 basis points this year, up from 100 basis points before the China news hit the wires, CME’s FedWatch tool shows.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded 0.7% lower on the day at $82,500 at press time, having earlier put in highs above $84,600. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, represented by Deribit’s DVOL index, rose to an annualized 54.6%, the highest in two weeks.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Major coins reversed early gains after Beijing stepped up trade tensions by announcing retaliatory tariffs following President Donald Trump’s Wednesday decision to impose additional levies on China and other nations.
Bitcoin dropped to $83,000 from $84,600, though the downside appeared limited, probably because the market’s worst fears have finally come true. Markets dislike uncertainty, and the anticipation of a looming threat often creates more anxiety and fear than the actual realization of that threat.
Since Trump took office on Jan. 20, markets have been wrestling with the threat of tariffs and a global trade war. That damped investor risk appetite, causing the BTC price to tumble from a record high over $109,000 to below $80,000 last month.
This week, Trump announced sweeping tariffs on 180 nations, with higher levies on China, the European Union and Southeast Asia. The effective U.S. tariff rate is now above the level of around 20% set by the 1930’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
This so-called tariffagedon moment marks the end of lingering uncertainty and could be liberating for markets, mainly because bond yields have dropped across the advanced world in the aftermath, pricing in disinflation. That’s contrary to the popular narrative that tariffs would lead to stagflation — high inflation plus low growth — forcing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield has dropped below 4% for the first time since October and yields have fallen sharply in the U.K., Germany and Japan. Plus, oil has declined sharply this week on prospects of higher supply from OPEC countries.
All this bodes well for Fed rate cut bets and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The same can be said for Friday’s March jobs report, which, if it beats estimates, will likely be seen as backward-looking, failing to account for this week’s Trump tariffs, while a weak print will only add to Fed rate cuts.
With the major macro uncertainty behind us, the crypto market could return to focusing on positive developments, such as USDC issuer Circle’s IPO filing and technological advancements.
On Thursday, Coinbase Derivatives submitted documentation to the CFTC to self-certify futures for XRP. In addition, Ethereum developers chose May 7 as the date for the Pectra upgrade to go live on the mainnet.
Elsewhere, the SEC acknowledged Fidelity’s filing for a spot exchange-traded fund tied to SOL, which takes it closer to approval. A lot is happening within the industry, so stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 5: The purported birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
April 7, 7:30 p.m.: Syscoin (SYS) activates the Nexus upgrade on its mainnet at block 2,010,345.
April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing on Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for operator misconduct.
April 21: Coinbase Derivatives will list XRP futures pending approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Macro
April 4, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March employment data.
Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 135K vs. Prev. 151K
Unemployment Rate Est. 4.1% vs. Prev. 4.1%
April 4, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases March employment data.
Unemployment Rate Est. 6.7% vs. Prev. 6.6%
April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
April 5, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries takes effect.
April 9, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s higher individualized tariffs on imports from top U.S. trade-deficit countries take effect.
April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
No earnings scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that includes initializing ALLOCATOR-BLOOM-A, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s hop parameter, approving the Spark Tokenization Grand Prix DAO resolution and executing a Spark Proxy Spell to expand SparkLend’s liquidity operations. Voting ends May 3.
AaveDAO is discussing an upgrade to GHO Savings to introduce a technical design change to sGHO, a yield-bearing version of GHO designed for multichain integration. It also introduces the Aave Savings Rate (ASR) that will determine sGHO’s yield.
April 4, 9 a.m.: Core DAO to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
April 4, 2 p.m.: Sei’s research initiative to hold a livestream on real-world asset tokenization.
April 7, 9 a.m.: OriginTrail to host a “Shaping AI for Good” Zoom talk.
April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding, and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
Unlocks
April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $54.22 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.17 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $19.17 million.
April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $57 million.
April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $24.91 million.
Token Listings
April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB and KryptoniteSEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.
April 9: IOST airdrop claims portal for a roughly 1.7 billion IOST token airdrop to open.
April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 3 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
Day 2 of 4: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
April 22-24: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok)
April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai)
April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow)
April 24: Bitwise’s Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Infected, a crypto game, moves to Solana from Base network after saying the latter couldn’t handle its launch.
Infected claimed it faced technical issues during the start-up and Base was unable to handle high transaction volumes, leading to gas price spikes and a poor user experience.
It reported that a gas spike caused transaction failures during the critical first 30 minutes of the game’s debut, disrupting momentum.
Although front-end issues were suspected initially, the team concluded that Base’s scalability limitations were the root cause, a problem they say persists across Ethereum-based chains.
Jesse Pollak, the creator of Base, rejected the claims, asserting that Base operated smoothly and did not crash. He emphasized that Base, with a $3.05 billion total value locked and 1.2 million active addresses, had offered support to resolve front-end issues, suggesting the problem was not inherent to the chain.
Base developer ‘Saedeh’ called out Infected’s inexperience, pointing to its introduction of multiple tokens and exaggerated market cap claims as missteps.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC, ETH puts are trading at a premium relative to calls out to June expiry, representing near-term downside concerns.
The positive dealer gamma at the $83K and $84K strikes means these market participants could trade against the market to hedge their books, potentially arresting price volatility.
Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens, excluding XRP and AVAX, remain marginally positive, implying cautiously bullish sentiment.
Market Movements
BTC is up 1.25% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $83,032.61 (24hrs: -0.28%)
ETH is up 0.61% at $1,795.41 (24hrs: +0.15%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.54% at 2,479.75 (24hrs: +0.62%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 3.08%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0023% (2.4988% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.47% at 102.56
Gold is up 0.48% at $3,111.90/oz
Silver is down 1.38% at $31.40/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -2.75% at 33,780.58
Hang Seng closed -1.52% at 22,849.81
FTSE is down 3.4% at 8,186.43
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 4.26% at 4,895.26
DJIA closed on Thursday -3.98% at 40,545.93
S&P 500 closed -4.84% at 5,396.52
Nasdaq closed -5.97% at 16,550.61
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -3.84% at 24,335.8
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.21% at 2,453.38
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 13 bps at 3.9%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 2.17% at 5,315.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.34%% at 18,238.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 2.26% at 39,854
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 63 (0.31%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02162 (-1.05%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 839 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $46.31
Total Fees: 5.78 BTC / $478,070
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,025 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.69%
Technical Analysis
The ratio between the dollar prices of bitcoin and gold is looking to trend lower.
Gold, however, may see a «sell the fact» pullback in the wake of Wednesday’s Trump tariffs, potentially leading to a breakout in the BTC-gold ratio.
Such a move could be taken a sign of a renewed bull run in BTC, as the cryptocurrency tends to rally after gold.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $282.28 (-9.68%), down 1.11% at $279.14 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $170.76 (-6.66%), down 3.29% at $165.14
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.08 (-11.81%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.23 (-9.58%), down 3.29% at $10.86
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.30 (-8.98%), down 3.15% at $7.07
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.15 (-15.08%), down 1.96% at $7.01
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.41 (-7.61%), down 3.51% at $7.15
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.75 (-10.46%), down 0.16% at $12.73
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.06 (-8.02%), down 6.05% at $32
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.63 (-9.93%), down 0.09% at $42.59
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$99.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.23 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.37 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.39 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The global search interest for the term «tariffs» reached a peak value of 100 on Thursday, indicating heightened curiosity and concern about trade taxes among the general public over the past 90 days.
Peak interest among the general populace usually marks the end of a trend, meaning markets could soon be looking past tariffs.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Falls Back to $83K as China Announces 34% Tariffs on All U.S. Goods (CoinDesk): China announced retaliatory tariffs on all goods from the U.S.
March Jobs Report a ‘Heads I Win, Tails You Lose’ Moment for Bitcoin Bulls (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s price stability above March lows suggests seller fatigue, with implied volatility indicating a potential 3.4% price swing in the next 24 hours.
South Korea’s President Yoon Ousted as Court Upholds Impeachment (Reuters): The Constitutional Court said Yoon overstepped his powers by declaring martial law. An election must be held within 60 days, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo serving as interim president.
Inflation Fears Add to Pressure on Federal Reserve (Financial Times): Markets now see short-term U.S. inflation rising at its fastest pace since 2022.
Solana’s SOL Could See Nearly 6% Price Swing as Whales Dump Coins Before U.S. Jobs Data (CoinDesk): Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index indicates SOL may see a 6% price swing as large investors offload holdings ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll report.
China’s Response to New U.S. Tariffs Will Likely Focus More on Stimulus, Building Trade Ties (CNBC): China is likely to respond by boosting stimulus, deepening Asian and African trade ties, and keeping the yuan strong to shift inflationary pressure onto the U.S., analysts said.
In the Ether
Risk sentiment worsened during the European hours Friday after China announced retaliatory tariffs on all goods, responding to Trump’s Wednesday decision to boost the overall levy on Chinese goods to 54%.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell by $1,600 to $83,000, erasing the early rise to $84,600, CoinDesk data shows. Other tokens like XRP, ETH, SOL and DOGE also reversed early gains to trade largely flat on the day.
Meanwhile, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 2% amid escalating global trade tensions.
«China’s response is not only negative for the U.S. but it is also impacting the global outlook,» ForexLive’s analyst Justin Low wrote in a market update.
Wall Street Volatility Gauge Hits 4.5-Year High, Traders Lift Rate-Cut Bets on China Tariffs
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Reverses Gains as China Ramps Up Tariff Retaliation
China Announces 34% Tariff on All U.S. Goods. Bitcoin Falls Back to $83K
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