Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Buoyant With Trump Tariffs, Options Expiry Set to Add Volatility
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Risk-assets have a spring in their step. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $87,000 and the S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 10.
However, volatility is expected to rise ahead of Friday’s quarterly options expiry, with over $12 billion in notional value set to expire on Deribit with a max pain price at $85,000. Most open interest, meantime, centers around $100,000 call options.
President Trump is deploying new trade war tactics, introducing “secondary tariffs” that could impose a 25% levy on any nation buying oil and gas from Venezuela, according to Bloomberg.
He also signaled that while some countries may receive exemptions on tariffs, additional tariffs on autos, lumber and semiconductor chips will be announced in the coming days. These measures, part of the president’s broader “America First” economic agenda, could take effect as early as April 2.
Bloomberg notes that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to advocate for tariffs, framing them as a strategic tool that serves multiple purposes: providing leverage in negotiations, generating government revenue and rebalancing trade in favor of the U.S.
Meanwhile, in the U.K., Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing for Wednesday’s Spring Statement amid rising bond yields that threaten to complicate fiscal planning. Early reports indicate she will propose civil service job cuts while ruling out further tax increases. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 25, 11:00 p.m.: Celo (CELO) mainnet’s hard fork network upgrade at block height 31056500 transitions it from an L1 to an Ethereum L2.
March 26: Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, starts trading on Japan-based crypto exchange SBI VC Trade.
March 26, 3:00 a.m.: Cronos (CRO) zkEVM v26 mainnet upgrade introduces Smart Account SSO for simpler logins and lays groundwork for the ZK Gateway to enhance cross-chain interoperability.
March 26, 10:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.
April 1: Metaplanet (TYO: 3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
Macro
March 26, 3:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases February consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.4%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.7%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.1%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%
March 26: The U.K.’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) releases its latest Fiscal and Economic Outlook. Later in the day, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will present her Spring Statement to the House of Commons.
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%
PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%
Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended March 22.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K
March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.
March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.
Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%
April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan goes live.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Uniswap DAO is discussing the recognition of the canonical deployment of Uniswap v2 and v3 on Soneium.
Floki DAO is voting on removing the 0.3% transaction fee charged when users buy or sell thought the TokenFi smart contract following a request from a “very important and strategically significant partner.”
Sky DAO is discussing redirecting the Boost program’s budget to promote USDS on non-Ethereum networks and stop Sky token buybacks to instead direct surplus toward Sky takers.
March 26, 1 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to hold an Open Ecosystem Call.
Unlocks
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.47 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $154.07 million.
April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $13.43 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $141.11 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.82 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $22.82 million.
Token Listings
March 25: Particle Network (PARTI) to list on Binance, Gate.io, OKX, KuCoin, HashKey, Bitrue, Bitget, XT.com and others.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) to list on Gate.io and Bybit.
March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 2 of 3: Merge Buenos Aires
Day 1 of 2: PAY360 2025 (London)
Day 1 of 3: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
Day 1 of 4: Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2025 (Boao, China)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
MOG jumped 25% as memecoins caught a bid on bitcoin and ether demand.
The cat-themed culture coin tends to surge whenever ETH sees buying demand, functioning as a «beta bet» on the Ethereum blockchain, where it is based.
Monitoring the highest performing memecoins during a market recovery can be profitable for traders, providing cues on which tokens tend to outperform when there are gains in major cryptocurrencies.
Cronos’ CRO caught flak from prominent on-chain sleuth ZachXBT after Trump Media signed a non-binding agreement with closely related Crypto.com to launch U.S. crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the token through Crypto.com’s broker-dealer, Foris Capital US.
“CRO is no different from a scam,” ZachXBT said in a tweet, referring to a governance proposal last week that increased CRO supply by more than 200%.
The contentious proposal drew to a close Monday last week, with the community voting in favor of increasing token supply from 30 billion CRO to 100 billion CRO over 10 years. The vote was influenced by a small group of large and influential token holders flipped the result with a 3.2 billion token swing just before the conclusion, drawing red flags among market watchers.
Derivatives Positioning
CME futures basis for BTC and ETH remains low, between 4% and 7%, indicating a lack of willingness among institutional players to deploy capital despite the recent market stability.
BTC perpetual funding rates dip below zero, hinting at a growing preference for bearish short positions on offshore exchanges.
XMR, HBAR, NEAR, BNB, SUI and AVAX boast positive 24-hour cumulative volume deltas in a sign of net buying in perpetual futures markets.
Short-dated BTC and ETH options listed on Deribit continue to show put skews. The $100K call remains the most popular option ahead of the quarterly expiry.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 1.12% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $86,889.75 (24hrs: -0.77%)
ETH is down 1.01% at $2,064.85 (24hrs: -1.31%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.35% at 2,782.83 (24hrs: -0.55%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 2.97%
BTC funding rate is at -0.003% (-1.141% annualized) on Binance
DXY is unchanged at 104.24
Gold is up 0.38% at $3,024.40/oz
Silver is up 1.38% at $33.72/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.46% at 37,780.54
Hang Seng closed -2.35% at 23,344.25
FTSE is up 0.4% at 8,672.92
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.52% at 5,444.05
DJIA closed on Monday +1.42 at 42,583.32
S&P 500 closed +1.76 at 5,767.57
Nasdaq closed +2.27% at 18,188.59
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.34% at 25,304.10
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.62% at 2,455.50
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.36%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.18% at 5,804.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 20,307.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.15% at 42,833.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.44 (-0.20%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02375 (-0.17%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 829 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $49.32
Total Fees: 6.17 BTC / $540,108
CME Futures Open Interest: 146,560 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 28.8 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.19%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is rising toward the trendline that characterizes the sharp price drop from record highs.
A move through the trendline resistance would open doors to resistance at $100K, followed by record highs.
The strengthening of the upward momentum, signaled by the rising MACD histogram, favors the trendline breakout.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $335.72 (+10.43%), down 0.94% at $332.58 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $203.04 (+6.94%), down 1.11% at $200.79
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$19.30 (+7.58%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.61 (+18.01%), down 1.71% at $14.36
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.72 (+9.69%), down 0.8% at $8.65
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.31 (+9.4%), down 0.97% at $9.22
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+18.15%), down 1.48% at $8.66
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.31 (+10.2%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.88 (+9.33%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $52.64 (+6.3%), up 3.84% at $54.66
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $84.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.22 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $0 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.419 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows the impact of the Ethereum Foundation’s ether sales on the token’s spot-market price.
Sales in excess of 15,000 ETH tend to move prices.
While You Were Sleeping
BlackRock to List Bitcoin ETP in Europe in First Crypto Foray Outside U.S. (CoinDesk): The asset management giant’s iShares Bitcoin ETP listed Tuesday on Xetra, Euronext Paris and Amsterdam with a 0.15% fee through year-end.
Binance Wallet Suspends Staff Member Over Front-Running Allegations (CoinDesk): The staffer allegedly used confidential information from their previous business development role at BNB Chain to front-run a token launch. Binance’s investigation found no evidence of insider trading.
Circle to Launch USDC in Japan on March 26 With SBI Partnership (CoinDesk): Japan-based crypto exchange SBI VC Trade, which got regulatory approval on March 4 to list USDC, will start trading of the stablecoin on March 26.
China Is Suffering Its Own ‘China Shock’ (Financial Times): China has lost 7.4 million factory jobs since 2011 as rising wages and lower-cost rivals like Vietnam and Indonesia erode its export edge, fueling concern over a rise in long-term unemployment.
China’s Vice Premier Meets Blackstone Chairman in Beijing (Reuters): He Lifeng said his country welcomed more U.S.-funded enterprises and long-term capital, which he said would contribute to the healthy development of U.S.–China economic relations.
Boom in Uranium Stocks Fizzles as Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Build (Bloomberg): Uranium-related stocks have fallen in 2025 amid prospects of new U.S. tariffs on Canada and looser Russian sanctions, both major sources of the nuclear fuel.
In the Ether
The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $667.4 million in net inflows on May 19, the largest single-day total since May 2, signaling renewed institutional interest.
Nearly half of these inflows, $306 million, went into iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), now at $45.9 billion in net inflows, according to data source Farside Investors.
The renewed demand follows bitcoin’s strong price performance, having traded above $100,000 for 11 consecutive days, which has helped restore market confidence.
Additionally, the annualized basis trade, a strategy where investors go long on the spot ETF and simultaneously short bitcoin futures contracts on the CME, has become increasingly attractive with yields approaching 9%, almost double what was seen in April.
According to Velo data, this has sparked a modest uptick in basis trade activity as evidenced by an increase in trading activity in the CME futures.
On Monday, CME futures volumes hit $8.4 billion (roughly 80,000 BTC), the highest since April 23. Meanwhile, open interest stood at 158,000 BTC, up over 30,000 BTC contracts from April’s lows, further underscoring the growing appetite for leveraged and arbitrage strategies.
That said, both both futures volume and open interest remain well below the levels seen when bitcoin reach an all-time high of $109,000 in January, indicating there’s still significant headroom for further growth.
The upswing in the basis suggests the growth may be already happening, bringing back players that left the market early this year when the basis dropped to under 5%.
Recent 13F filings revealed that the Wisconsin State Pension Board exited its ETF position in the first quarter, likely in response to a then-less favorable basis trade environment. However, given that 13F data lags by a quarter and the basis spread has since widened from 5% to nearly 10%, it is plausible that it reentered the market in the second quarter to capitalize on the improved arbitrage opportunity.
Uncategorized
Bitcoin and Gold in Sweet Spot as Bond Market ‘Smackdown’ Exposes the U.S. Fiscal Kayfabe: Godbole
There is a popular saying, that goes, «If you want to understand America, watch a pro wrestling match.» Though it may be glib and a little over simplified, it appears to ‘ring’ true, as the U.S. financial markets are now exhibiting traits similar to pro-wrestling’s concept of «kayfabe.»
Kayfabe means an illusion that the in-ring scripted action is real, with the audience buying the same while suspending their belief for entertainment.
A similar dynamic has played out in the financial market for at least a decade, where the U.S. government has repeatedly hit its self-imposed debt ceiling, or borrowing limit, a sign of fiscal crisis. Still, investors continued lending money to the government at ultra-low yields, including during times of stress in the global economy, thereby maintaining the kayfabe that the government is a safe and reliable borrower.
Recently, however, bond market participants have exposed kayfabe, as legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones had warned, weakening the illusion and strengthening the case for investing in assets with haven and store-of-value appeal like bitcoin (BTC) and gold.
Bonds blast the kayfabe
This week’s big news is the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield topping the 5% mark and how it could destabilize financial markets. However, we have been there before in October last year, according to the data source TradingView.
Read more: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Amid Moody’s Rating Downgrade, Fiscal Concerns
The real story is the spike in yields on the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Their principal amount is adjusted for inflation.
The 30-year TIPS yield recently rose above 2.7%, the highest since 2001. In other words, investors demand a yield at least 2.7% greater than inflation in return for loaning money to the government for three decades.
This comes as the consumer price index (CPI) growth continued to slow toward the Fed’s 2% target, and the market-based forward-looking inflation measures like breakevens remain stable in familiar ranges seen since 2022. Plus, the supposedly inflationary U.S.-China tariff war has eased.
Divergence is a clear indicator that investors are seeking the most expensive real yield due to concerns about fiscal policy and not inflation, tariffs, or growth dynamics.
«The world is saying, we don’t trust your long-term fiscal trajectory and we want to be compensated for it,» pseudonymous analyst EndGame Macro said in an explainer on X.
As of May 19, the U.S. national debt, also known as the total public debt, stood at $36.22 trillion. It is projected to rise by $22 trillion over the next 10 years, with debt-to-GDP reaching 156% by 2055, according to analysis conducted by EY’s Quantitative Economics and Statistics (QUEST) practice. The QUEST report also said the burgeoning debt will weigh heavily on economic growth.
Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, pointed to the five-year forward real interest rate as evidence of bond players questioning the fiscal sustainability.
«The 5y5y forward real interest rate now stands at 2.5%, which is the highest level going all the way back to 2010. Most importantly, it far exceeds levels seen during hawkish Fed episodes, like the 2013 «taper tantrum» or the 2022/23 hiking cycle after the COVID inflation scare,» Brooks said in a Substack post, while noting the stability in the 5y5y forward inflation breakevens.
«That makes it all the more likely that many years of irresponsible fiscal policy are catching up with the U.S, adding urgency to the need to get our fiscal house in order,» Brooks added.
FX-bond correlations are dead
Another sign that the market is waking up to the fact that the emperor has no clothes is the breakdown in the traditional correlation between the foreign exchange (forex) and bond markets.
Typically, rising bond yields boost the appeal of the home currency, causing it to appreciate against other fiat currencies. For example, the EUR/USD has historically closely tracked the spread between yields on German and U.S. two-year government bonds.
But not anymore. The EUR/USD has risen sharply since early April despite the narrowing of the two-year yield differential, led by a sharp rise in the U.S. two-year yield. The breakdown in correlations indicates that concerns over fiscal stability have likely prompted investors to move away from U.S. assets.
The degree of dollar bearishness is evident from the options market, which is now most bullish on EUR/USD since COVID. It’s unusual for the options market to put a greater premium on the upside in euro than the downside, according to Brooks.
Bullish bitcoin and gold
Historically, governments facing fiscal concerns have resorted to inflation and repaying debt by printing more money. They will likely retake the same road, incentivizing demand for hard assets like gold and bitcoin.
«All roads lead to inflation. That’s historically the way every civilization has gotten out is that they inflated away their debts,» Tudor Jones said last year, while naming BTC, gold, and commodities as preferred holdings over longer duration bonds.
Two years ago, Economist Russell Napier voiced a similar opinion, saying, «We need to prepare for an era of increasing financial repression and persistently high inflation.»
Financial repression refers to government policies that direct funds from the private sector to the public sector to help reduce national debt. The scenario is characterized by the inflation rate exceeding the return on savings, capital controls and interest rate caps, all of which could bode well for bitcoin and gold.
Interest rate caps are usually implemented through policies like yield curve control, which has the central bank targeting a specific level for the long bond yields, let’s say 5%. Every time, the yield looks to rise above the said level, the central bank steps up bond purchases, injecting liquidity into the system.
Arthur Hayes, CIO and founder of Maelstrom, has said that yield curve control will eventually be implemented in the U.S., torching a record rally in bitcoin.
Hayes recently said that President Donald Trump’s decision to water down trade tariffs after early April panic in financial markets is evidence that the financial system is too levered for tough reforms and warrants additional money creation.
“They can call it whatever they want—just don’t call it QE—but it has the same effect: liquidity rises and Bitcoin benefits,» Hayes said.
Impending rally won’t be smooth
The bullish case for BTC does not necessarily mean there won’t be hiccups.
The U.S. Treasury market serves as a bedrock of global finance and increased volatility in these bonds could cause financial tightening, potentially triggering a global dash for cash that sees investors sell every asset, including bitcoin.
As of now, however, the MOVE index, which represents the 30-day implied or expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, remains in a downtrend.
Crypto exchange KuCoin’s merchant service is enhancing its provision for users to complete mobile transactions with cryptocurrency.
KuCoin Pay has tapped payment protocol AEON to allow users to pay for goods and services online and in-store using cryptos such as bitcoin BTC, ether ETH and stablecoins USDT and USDC, according to an emailed announcement on Tuesday.
The service is being rolled out across «high-growing Asian markets» initially with plans to expand in the future, a KuCoin spokesperson told CoinDesk via Telegram.
KuCoin, like other crypto firms, is exploring how it can accelerate crypto adoption by allowing users to easily spend cryptocurrency when carrying out day-to-day transactions.
The Seychelles-headquartered exchange unveiled KuCoin Pay at the start of this year, allowing merchants to integrate it into their systems and enable cryptocurrency payments. The tie-up with AEON is intended to drive user adoption through offering faster and more secure mobile payments across all major blockchains.
Read More: Lyzi Raises $1.4M to Expand Tezos-Based Crypto Payments Service for Retail
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge as Basis Trade Nears 9%, Signaling Renewed Demand
Bitcoin and Gold in Sweet Spot as Bond Market ‘Smackdown’ Exposes the U.S. Fiscal Kayfabe: Godbole
KuCoin Enhances Point-of-Sale Mobile Payments With AEON
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