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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Set for Worst Q1 Since 2020 as Trump Approaches 100 Days

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By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

With just over a week to go until the end of March, the first quarter has been disappointing, particularly in terms of price action rather than narrative for the crypto industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10%, its worst first-quarter performance since 2020, and ether (ETH) has posted its weakest first quarter since inception. So far, bitcoin has been relatively steady in March.

Markets remain in the latter stages of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period historically marked by uncertainty and volatility. This is expected to persist at least through the end of April.

As quarter-end approaches, negative liquidity and position management could lead to increased volatility and whipsaw price action, according to the London Crypto Club, founders of a trading newsletter.

Despite short-term weakness, the pair maintain a bullish outlook heading into the second quarter. A slightly more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its March meeting — even without actual rate cuts — combined with a weakening U.S. dollar, increased fiscal spending in the European Union and a U.S. economy that is slowing but not collapsing, are all factors they say will support a strong three months.

Bitcoin began to sell off on Thursday following Trump’s lack of a concrete update on a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-free crypto capital gains policy.

“Market participants were hoping for a tax-free capital gains framework or a bitcoin national reserve accumulation plan,» noted Blockhead Research Network (BRN). «Instead, Trump reiterated his general support for the crypto industry, highlighting the role of stablecoins in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. While supportive in the long term, the lack of immediate policy commitments is a short-term bearish signal.”

BRN sees digital assets struggling to sustain breakouts, with accumulation continuing at lower levels, particularly for altcoins.

“Despite near-term weakness, we recommend staying heavily invested, as the market could react swiftly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” BRN told CoinDesk in an email. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that will focus on the definition of a security.

March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.

March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.

March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on the Chromia (CHR) mainnet.

March 26, 3:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pascal hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.

Macro

March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) Japan March producer price index (PPI) data.

Composite PPI Prev. 52

Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49

Services PPI Prev. 53.7

March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) U.S. March producer price index (PPI) data.

Composite PPI Prev. 51.6

Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7

Services PPI Prev. 51

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02

March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Aave DAO is discussing the activation of Aave Umbrella, a system meant to replace Aave Safety Module. It would enable users to stake their Aave aTokens to cover potential bad debt and earn rewards for it.

Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that would include a number of key initiatives, including implementing multiple rate changes, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s «hop» parameter, allocating 55,000 USDS for a bug bounty payout, transferring 3 million USDS for Integration Boost funding and triggering a Spark proxy spell, among other things.

Compound DAO is discussing the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism aimed at enhancing governance and participation from COMP holders. It would allow token holders to stake and delegate their votes to earn a share of protocol revenue.

March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.

March 25, 1 a.m.: Crypto.com to hold an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with its co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.

Unlocks

March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $307.8 million.

March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.81 million.

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $147.01 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $114.79 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.81 million.

Token Listings

March 21: PancakeSwap (CAKE) to be listed on HashKey.

March 21: Orca (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires

March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)

March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Issuance platform Pump.Fun introduced its Pumpswap service on Thursday, allowing tokens made on the platform to be traded on the new service instead of decentralized exchange (DEX) Raydium, where they were previously listed.

Pump introduced a new fee structure, replacing the 6 SOL migration fee with a 0.25% trading fee.

It also has plans for a revenue sharing model that incentivizes creators to focus on long-term token growth by earning revenue on every trade, shifting away from the previous dump-on-buyers dynamic.

Pump.fun metrics show a decline in token launches and graduations, with 29,000 coins launched on March 8 but only 264 graduating and success rates — or the tokens listed on a DEX — dipping below 1%.

Derivatives Positioning

Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to 628,000 BTC from the weekly high of nearly 650,000 BTC alongside marginally positive perpetual funding rates. The combination indicates that BTC’s 24-hour price drop is largely characterized by unwinding of longs rather than new shorts.

Open interest in ETH futures, meanwhile, remains elevated at record highs above 10 million ETH in a sign traders are continuing to short a falling market.

XRM, BNB, TRX are standouts in the altcoin market, boasting a positive cumulative volume delta indicator for the past 24 hours. It’s a sign of net buying in these markets.

BTC’s short and near-dated options have flipped bearish, indicating renewed demand for puts out to the May end expiry. Ether puts are pricier than BTC.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)

ETH is down 1.19% at $1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1.29% at 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.06%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0108% (3.95% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.16% at 104.02

Gold is down 0.12% at $3,033.22/oz

Silver is down 1.08% at $33.11/oz

Nikkei 225 closed on Thursday -0.25% at 37,677.06

Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.19% at 23,689.72

FTSE is down 0.49% at 8,659.67

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.76% at 5,410.04

DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32

S&P 500 closed -0.22% at 5,662.89

Nasdaq closed -0.33% at 17,691.63

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24

S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,471.90

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.23%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% at 5,700.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 19,828.75

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19 at 42,204.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $48.01

Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $465,938

CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.79%

Technical Analysis

The XRP/ETH daily chart shows the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, has recently produced a lower high, diverging bearishly from the continued rise in the ratio.

The divergence suggests XRP may underperform ether in the coming days.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% at $299.55 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% at $188.93

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.15 (+2.54%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% at $12.43

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% at $7.75

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% at $8.51

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% at $7.69

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.98 (-1.45%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.82 (-3.05%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% at $48.15

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $165.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.05 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$12.5 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.45 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.452 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The number of active or open positions in the $100,000 strike call has decreased while open interest in lower strike calls between $85,000 and $90,000 has increased alongside renewed interest in protective puts at lower levels.

The data shows a cautious market sentiment.

While You Were Sleeping

North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Holds More Bitcoin Than Elon Musk’s Tesla (CoinDesk): The group behind the $1.4 billion Bybit ether theft held 13,441 bitcoin, 16% more than Tesla, according to Arkham Intelligence.

Polymarket Is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research (CoinDesk): Polymarket predictions reach up to 94% accuracy when extreme probabilities are excluded, though users often inflate odds due to bias, herd behavior, low liquidity and risk-seeking tendencies.

Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy (CoinDesk): The government intends to support tokenization, real-world asset integration and central bank digital currencies to help modernize its financial system, according to a Treasury white paper.

Dollar Slump Magnifies Stock Market Pain for Foreign Investors (Financial Times): The S&P 500’s 4% drop this year has translated into over 8% losses for eurozone investors as the U.S. currency weakens on concerns over U.S. economic growth.

Japan’s Households Slash Cash at Record Pace as Inflation Bites (Bloomberg): Cash holdings fell to 105.3 trillion yen ($707 billion) in the final quarter of 2024, marking a 3.4% year-over-year decline — the steepest drop since 1998.

Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Gain on Iran Sanctions, Planned OPEC+ Cuts (Reuters): Brent and WTI futures are set for their largest weekly rise since January, driven by new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and plans by seven exporters to curb supply through mid-2026.

In the Ether

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The SEC Resets Its Crypto Relationship

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is looking to reset its relationship with the crypto industry, even before a permanent chair is confirmed by Congress. The latest effort was Friday’s roundtable, hosted at the SEC’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. and featuring a dozen attorneys representing different views and positions within the crypto industry.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

Ostrich farms and orange groves

The narrative

The SEC’s reset began when Acting Chair Mark Uyeda launched a crypto task force and oversaw his agency withdraw Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, drop a number of ongoing lawsuits, pause a few more and publish multiple staff statements about how the agency might look at memecoins and proof-of-work mining.

Why it matters

The SEC is arguably the most important federal regulator in crypto at the moment. While its sister agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, may be the regulator that might one day oversee crypto spot markets, right now it’s the SEC that most companies in the sector look to for guidance on what, exactly, it is they can do.

Breaking it down

The roundtable was split into two portions (three, if you count introductory remarks from the three commissioners): A roughly 90-minute moderated panel discussion, led by former SEC Commissioner and Paredes Strategies founder Troy Paredes, and a 90-minute town hall still moderated by Paredes but featuring questions from the general public.

You can read CoinDesk’s coverage of the panel discussion at this link.

Though the central question during the discussion was — as it has been for years — when and how exactly is a crypto or crypto transaction a security, panelists touched on everything from the role of crypto in boosting ransomware to how exactly companies should operate.

Chris Brummer, the CEO of Bluprynt and professor at Georgetown Law, opened up the discussion with his analysis of what the Howey Test actually means: We’re basically saying when you have savings, there’s an issue of investor protection. The common enterprise prong that we’re all familiar with is really addressing a kind of providing problem.»

«It really just goes to information asymmetries, and then the question of profits goes to investor psychology, greed and fear, the kinds of things that can distort decision-making,» he said. «And basically, when you have all those factors together, you have a mandated disclosure [rule].»

The SEC’s approach thus far has limited a number of crypto projects, Delphi Ventures General Counsel Sarah Brennan said. While many crypto projects are intended to have a broad initial distribution, «the specter of the applications of securities laws» means many projects act more like they’ll go public than actually embrace the crypto aspects of their projects.

«We see more and more the token is the product … there’s different ways that people are artificially supporting price and it’s generally been, I’d say, sort of toxic to the market,» she said.

John Reed Stark, a former SEC attorney, said that the «economic reality of the transaction» is critical.

«However you want to look at it, the people buying crypto are not collectors,» he said. «We all know that they’re investors, and the mission of the SEC is to protect investors.»

It remains to be seen how the SEC’s efforts will continue, but the agency is taking a more active role in publicly engaging with these questions and the industry seems to be responding. The SEC auditorium was about three-quarters full at times, to say nothing of anyone who tuned into the livestream.

Stories you may have missed

As Congress Talks Up Its Earth-Shaking Crypto Bill, Regulators Are Already at Work: Federal agencies aren’t waiting for Congress or even their permanent heads to get busy with crypto policymaking, Jesse Hamilton noted in this prescient analysis which came ahead of the SEC’s PoW mining statement and OCC’s reputational risk update.

Proof-of-Work Crypto Mining Doesn’t Trigger Securities Laws, SEC Says: Pooled and solo proof-of-work mining is outside the SEC’s jurisdiction, the agency said in a staff statement.

U.S. Bank Agency Cuts ‘Reputational Risk’ From Exams After Crypto Sector Cites Issues: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency removed «reputational risk» from its supervision handbook, it told national banks on Thursday.

XRP Zooms 10% as Garlinghouse Says SEC Is Dropping Case Against Ripple: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the SEC agreed to drop its appeal of a July 2023 ruling that said Ripple did not violate federal securities laws in selling XRP to retail investors by making it available through exchanges, and that the case itself is close to an end.

Digital Chamber Gets New Chief as Crypto Lobbyists Embrace Friendlier Washington: Digital Chamber founder and CEO Perianne Boring is stepping down next month and becoming the chair of its board. The lobby organization’s president, Cody Carbone, will take over as CEO.

Crypto Exchange Bithumb Raided by South Korean Prosecutors Over Embezzlement Allegations: Report: South Korean prosecutors have launched an investigation into crypto exchange Bithumb, looking into embezzlement allegations.

Inside Pump.fun’s Plan to Dominate Solana DeFi Trading: Pump.fun is launching a token swap service in an effort to get a slice of the fees generated by automated market makers on Solana.

Gotbit Founder Aleksei Andriunin Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Market Manipulation: Aleksei Andriunin, the Russian national who told CoinDesk in 2019 that he ran a wash trading service to make cryptocurrencies appear to have a greater liquidity and market capitalization than they actually do, pleaded guilty to market manipulation and wire fraud charges in a plea deal.

Nasdaq Shift to Round-The-Clock Stock Trading Partly Due to Crypto, Says Exchange Executive: Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange are both working toward round-the-clock trading at least in part due to crypto trading already being round-the-clock, Nasdaq’s head of U.S. Equities and Exchange-traded Products Giang Bui said.

SEC Chair Nominee Paul Atkins to Face Senate Panel Next Week: SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller nominee Jonathan Gould will face the Senate Banking Committee for their confirmation hearing next week.

U.S. Government Removes Tornado Cash Sanctions: A few months after the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control couldn’t sanction smart contracts, OFAC removed its sanctions against crypto mixer Tornado Cash.

This week

Tuesday

15:30 UTC (11:30 a.m. ET) The federal judge overseeing the U.S. Department of Justice’s case against Samourai Wallet’s founders held a status conference hearing in the case. Per my colleague Cheyenne Ligon, who attended, the 7-minute long hearing addressed a few procedural matters but did not delve into the substance of the case.

Thursday

14:40 UTC (10:40 a.m. ET) U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to the audience at the Digital Asset Summit via a brief, pre-taped video largely reiterating comments he previously made at the White House crypto summit on March 7.

Friday

17:00 UTC (1:00 p.m. ET) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission held a roundtable event with legal experts from the crypto industry and SEC staff.

Elsewhere:

(Reuters) Another strain of bird flu — this time H7N9 — has hit the U.S. for the first time since 2017. This is on top of the ongoing H5N1 epidemic.

(CNN) Amtrak CEO Stephen Gardner said he would be stepping down from leading the quasi-public transit company at the White House’s direction.

(Bloomberg) Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire derivatives platform Deribit, Bloomberg reported, following CoinDesk’s reporting last month that the exchange was interested in the firm.

(Wired) A former Meta employee wrote a tell-all book about her experiences at the company and Meta is going all out to limit its distribution. Careless People has since risen to become a best-seller on Amazon.

(Bloomberg) Bloomberg profiled New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand’s role in pushing for crypto legislation in the Senate.

(Politico) The Trump administration’s plans for USAID include reforming it and «leverag[ing] blockchain technology to secure transactions,» though this document Politico obtained does not include a lot more detail. «All distributions would also be secured and traced via blockchain technology to radically increase security, transparency and traceability,» the document says. If you’re one of the individuals pushing for blockchain integration with the U.S. government, let’s chat.

(The Guardian) The Trump administration renditioned more than 200 men of Venezuelan origin to an El Salvadorian prison, potentially in violation of a court order and without holding any hearings or trials. While the administration said in public statements that all 238 men had ties to the Tren de Aragua gang which in turn was taking direction from Venezuela’s government, officials said in court documents that many of the people flown to El Salvador did not have criminal records. Family members of many of these individuals say they were not criminals and did not have gang ties. Some of the individuals reportedly signed deportation papers and expected to be flown back to Venezuela. U.S. intelligence agencies seemingly also found that TdA was not tied to the Venezuelan government, the Times reported.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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SEC ‘Earnest’ About Finding Workable Crypto Policy, Commissioners Say at Roundtable

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The staff at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has embraced the chance to finally work with the crypto industry to hash out policy for overseeing digital assets transactions, said Commissioner Hester Peirce, the head of the agency’s crypto task force.

The securities regulator is ready «to seek earnestly to find a workable framework,» Peirce said at the agency’s first crypto-focused roundtable on Friday. «I think we’re ready for the spring ahead,» she said, referring to the title of the day’s event, the «Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity.»

The task, according to Peirce: «Can we translate the characteristics of a security into a simple taxonomy that will cover the many different types of crypto assets that exist today and may exist in the future?»

Mark Uyeda, the agency’s acting chairman, told reporters that despite recent SEC policy statements that certain areas of the crypto sector aren’t subject to securities laws — memecoins and mining, so far — it’s a «definitely possibility» that others will be defined as securities.

«We’re moving on multiple tracks here,» he said in answer to a question from CoinDesk. Each statement issued so far «ultimately is a staff statement» that doesn’t have legal backing, but he said the roundtable represents the entire commission — currently three members — looking at what a «potential commission interpretation might look like.»

In his opening remarks at the event, Uyeda, who was appointed by President Donald Trump as the SEC awaits a Senate confirmation of Paul Atkins, argued that the agency should have been more willing in recent years to make such interpretations public.

«When judicial opinions have created uncertainty from our participants in the past, the commission and its staff have stepped in to provide guidance,» Uyeda said. «This approach of using common rulemaking for explaining the commission’s process or releases rather than enforcement actions, should have been considered for classifying crypto assets under the federal security laws.»

Panel discussion

The panel discussion saw a dozen securities attorneys in the crypto sector weigh in on the specific issues they saw as they advised companies.

«What’s the biggest question that you face in trying to wrestle with this question?,» moderator Troy Paredes, a former SEC commissioner who now runs consulting firm Paredes Strategies, asked Sarah Brennan, the general counsel at Delphi Ventures and one of the 11 panelists.

«The specter of the application of securities laws has moved early-stage projects in the market to sort of take an arc very similar to [initial public offerings], where they stay private longer,» she replied.

«These assets in the traditional model are designed to have wide, broad early distribution and most of the market is hedging that on the application of securities laws, so it ends up looking a lot like your traditional markets where people will marshal their way to an exchange listing without that broad dissemination or price support or actually fully launching the technology.»

The panel featured critics of the industry alongside attorneys who have worked to develop the sector.

«Whether you’re talking yield farms or ostrich farms or orange groves, the whole point of securities regulation was to wrap that all up into a very big, broad, principles-based regulation,» former SEC attorney John Reed Stark said. His concern is that, even in 2025, much of the market lacks utility.

«If it all went away tomorrow and you weren’t speculating in it, you wouldn’t care,» he said.

Legislator questions

Ahead of the roundtable, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Jake Auchincloss, both Massachusetts Democrats, wrote an open letter to Uyeda asking about the SEC’s staff statement on memecoins and how it was developed.

The letter asked whether anyone at the SEC communicated with the White House about the statement, whether the White House’s crypto working group had directed the SEC to do anything and why the staff statement was not built into formal rulemaking.

Warren and Auchincloss also asked the SEC to explain how it would specifically define memecoins as distinct from «general cryptocurrency,» how it would distinguish between actual memecoins and memecoins that don’t meet the staff statement, and which memecoins the SEC analyzed in drafting its staff statement.

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Coinbase Could Be Near Multi-Billion Dollar Deal for Deribit: Bloomberg

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Animal spirits in the crypto industry continue to be evident amid the eased regulatory stance of the Trump administration, with leading U.S. spot exchange Coinbase (COIN) in advanced acquisition talks with leading global derivatives exchange Deribit, reports Bloomberg.

According to the story, the companies have notified Dubai regulators (where Deribit is licensed) about the discussions.

Bloomberg earlier this year — alongside rumors that Kraken was discussing an acquisition of Deribit — reported Deribit could be valued in the area of $4 billion to $5 billion.

Mostly known for its spot trading business, Coinbase (COIN) would be making a big push into the highly profitable crypto derivatives market with a purchase of Deribit, which saw trading volume in 2024 of nearly $1.2 trillion — almost double that of the year prior.

Earlier this week, another U.S. crypto exchange — Kraken — boosted its derivatives business with a $1.5 billion deal to purchase Ninja Trader.

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