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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Set for Worst Q1 Since 2020 as Trump Approaches 100 Days
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
With just over a week to go until the end of March, the first quarter has been disappointing, particularly in terms of price action rather than narrative for the crypto industry.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10%, its worst first-quarter performance since 2020, and ether (ETH) has posted its weakest first quarter since inception. So far, bitcoin has been relatively steady in March.
Markets remain in the latter stages of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period historically marked by uncertainty and volatility. This is expected to persist at least through the end of April.
As quarter-end approaches, negative liquidity and position management could lead to increased volatility and whipsaw price action, according to the London Crypto Club, founders of a trading newsletter.
Despite short-term weakness, the pair maintain a bullish outlook heading into the second quarter. A slightly more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its March meeting — even without actual rate cuts — combined with a weakening U.S. dollar, increased fiscal spending in the European Union and a U.S. economy that is slowing but not collapsing, are all factors they say will support a strong three months.
Bitcoin began to sell off on Thursday following Trump’s lack of a concrete update on a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-free crypto capital gains policy.
“Market participants were hoping for a tax-free capital gains framework or a bitcoin national reserve accumulation plan,» noted Blockhead Research Network (BRN). «Instead, Trump reiterated his general support for the crypto industry, highlighting the role of stablecoins in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. While supportive in the long term, the lack of immediate policy commitments is a short-term bearish signal.”
BRN sees digital assets struggling to sustain breakouts, with accumulation continuing at lower levels, particularly for altcoins.
“Despite near-term weakness, we recommend staying heavily invested, as the market could react swiftly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” BRN told CoinDesk in an email. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that will focus on the definition of a security.
March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on the Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 26, 3:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet will activate the Pascal hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
Macro
March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) Japan March producer price index (PPI) data.
Composite PPI Prev. 52
Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49
Services PPI Prev. 53.7
March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) U.S. March producer price index (PPI) data.
Composite PPI Prev. 51.6
Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7
Services PPI Prev. 51
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave DAO is discussing the activation of Aave Umbrella, a system meant to replace Aave Safety Module. It would enable users to stake their Aave aTokens to cover potential bad debt and earn rewards for it.
Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that would include a number of key initiatives, including implementing multiple rate changes, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s «hop» parameter, allocating 55,000 USDS for a bug bounty payout, transferring 3 million USDS for Integration Boost funding and triggering a Spark proxy spell, among other things.
Compound DAO is discussing the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism aimed at enhancing governance and participation from COMP holders. It would allow token holders to stake and delegate their votes to earn a share of protocol revenue.
March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.
March 25, 1 a.m.: Crypto.com to hold an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with its co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
Unlocks
March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $307.8 million.
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.81 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $147.01 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $114.79 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.81 million.
Token Listings
March 21: PancakeSwap (CAKE) to be listed on HashKey.
March 21: Orca (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Issuance platform Pump.Fun introduced its Pumpswap service on Thursday, allowing tokens made on the platform to be traded on the new service instead of decentralized exchange (DEX) Raydium, where they were previously listed.
Pump introduced a new fee structure, replacing the 6 SOL migration fee with a 0.25% trading fee.
It also has plans for a revenue sharing model that incentivizes creators to focus on long-term token growth by earning revenue on every trade, shifting away from the previous dump-on-buyers dynamic.
Pump.fun metrics show a decline in token launches and graduations, with 29,000 coins launched on March 8 but only 264 graduating and success rates — or the tokens listed on a DEX — dipping below 1%.
Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to 628,000 BTC from the weekly high of nearly 650,000 BTC alongside marginally positive perpetual funding rates. The combination indicates that BTC’s 24-hour price drop is largely characterized by unwinding of longs rather than new shorts.
Open interest in ETH futures, meanwhile, remains elevated at record highs above 10 million ETH in a sign traders are continuing to short a falling market.
XRM, BNB, TRX are standouts in the altcoin market, boasting a positive cumulative volume delta indicator for the past 24 hours. It’s a sign of net buying in these markets.
BTC’s short and near-dated options have flipped bearish, indicating renewed demand for puts out to the May end expiry. Ether puts are pricier than BTC.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
ETH is down 1.19% at $1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1.29% at 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.06%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0108% (3.95% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.16% at 104.02
Gold is down 0.12% at $3,033.22/oz
Silver is down 1.08% at $33.11/oz
Nikkei 225 closed on Thursday -0.25% at 37,677.06
Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.19% at 23,689.72
FTSE is down 0.49% at 8,659.67
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.76% at 5,410.04
DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
S&P 500 closed -0.22% at 5,662.89
Nasdaq closed -0.33% at 17,691.63
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,471.90
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.23%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% at 5,700.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 19,828.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19 at 42,204.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $48.01
Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $465,938
CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.79%
Technical Analysis
The XRP/ETH daily chart shows the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, has recently produced a lower high, diverging bearishly from the continued rise in the ratio.
The divergence suggests XRP may underperform ether in the coming days.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% at $299.55 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% at $188.93
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.15 (+2.54%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% at $12.43
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% at $7.75
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% at $8.51
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% at $7.69
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.98 (-1.45%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.82 (-3.05%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% at $48.15
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $165.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $36.05 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$12.5 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.45 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.452 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The number of active or open positions in the $100,000 strike call has decreased while open interest in lower strike calls between $85,000 and $90,000 has increased alongside renewed interest in protective puts at lower levels.
The data shows a cautious market sentiment.
While You Were Sleeping
North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Holds More Bitcoin Than Elon Musk’s Tesla (CoinDesk): The group behind the $1.4 billion Bybit ether theft held 13,441 bitcoin, 16% more than Tesla, according to Arkham Intelligence.
Polymarket Is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research (CoinDesk): Polymarket predictions reach up to 94% accuracy when extreme probabilities are excluded, though users often inflate odds due to bias, herd behavior, low liquidity and risk-seeking tendencies.
Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy (CoinDesk): The government intends to support tokenization, real-world asset integration and central bank digital currencies to help modernize its financial system, according to a Treasury white paper.
Dollar Slump Magnifies Stock Market Pain for Foreign Investors (Financial Times): The S&P 500’s 4% drop this year has translated into over 8% losses for eurozone investors as the U.S. currency weakens on concerns over U.S. economic growth.
Japan’s Households Slash Cash at Record Pace as Inflation Bites (Bloomberg): Cash holdings fell to 105.3 trillion yen ($707 billion) in the final quarter of 2024, marking a 3.4% year-over-year decline — the steepest drop since 1998.
Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Gain on Iran Sanctions, Planned OPEC+ Cuts (Reuters): Brent and WTI futures are set for their largest weekly rise since January, driven by new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and plans by seven exporters to curb supply through mid-2026.
In the Ether
Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this report owns shares of Strategy (MSTR).
Strategy’s (MSTR) perpetual preferred stock, STRK, achieved the largest proceeds from its weekly at-the-market (ATM) issuance since the program started in February, according to X account DogCandles, raising $59.7 million that was used to buy more bitcoin BTC, according to a Monday SEC filing.
That amount corresponds to the issuance of approximately 621,555 STRK shares. Strategy has about $20.79 billion still available in the STRK ATM facility.
The company led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is plowing ahead with its bitcoin-buying strategy even as the price of the largest cryptocurrency holds above $100,000, with an eye on its January record of $109,000. Strategy’s Monday BTC purchase took its total holdings to 576,230 BTC.
This represents a 16.3% BTC yield, a key performance indicator (KPI) that reflects the year-to-date percentage increase in the ratio of MSTR’s bitcoin holdings to its assumed diluted shares outstanding, effectively measuring the growth in BTC exposure on a per-share basis.
The recent STRK issuance represents just under 9% of the total proceeds generated from the ATM program for the common stock, which has raised $705.7 million to date. This highlights the increasing role STRK is playing in Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition model.
STRK features a fixed 8% annual dividend, which is based on the $100 per share liquidation preference, resulting in an annual payout of $8.00 per share.
That gives it an effective yield, annual dividend divided by STRK share price, of 8.1%. Importantly, this yield is inversely related to the share price. As STRK trades higher, the yield decreases, and vice versa.
Since its launch on Feb. 10, STRK has risen by 16%, outperforming both bitcoin, which has added 10%, and the S&P 500, which has declined by 2% over the same period.
According to data from the Strategy dashboard, STRK exhibits the lowest correlation with MSTR common stock, sitting at just 44%. In contrast, STRK maintains relatively higher correlations with broader market benchmarks: 71% with bitcoin and 72% with the SPY exchange-traded fund.
This suggests that STRK trades with a unique profile, potentially appealing to investors seeking differentiated exposure due to its hybrid nature as a preferred equity instrument with bitcoin-tied capital deployment.
Kraken is rolling out regulated crypto derivatives trading in Europe, compliant with the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).
The crypto exchange’s perpetual and fixed maturity futures contracts will now be available for retail and institutional customers in the European Economic Area (EEA), the firm said on Tuesday.
Permission to trade crypto derivatives came via a Cypriot investment firm called Greenfield Wealth, which Kraken acquired earlier this year, securing the exchange a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC).
The crypto derivatives space has seen some significant moves lately, with big players like U.S.-listed Coinbase (COIN) acquiring leading trading platform Deribit. In Europe, exchanges such as Bitstamp and Gemini are entering the fold, while the MiFID II license held by FTX EU has been acquired by BackPack.
Kraken also made a $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader to drive derivatives trading in the U.S. As well as its European license, Kraken acquired Crypto Facilities, a U.K. FCA-regulated crypto futures platform, in 2019.
Kraken’s joined-up approach means the contracts European clients will have access to already command a relatively high volume, roughly between $1 billion and $2 billion per day, according to Shannon Kurtas, head of exchange at Kraken.
“This is not offering access to a new trading venue or new contracts,” Kurtas said in an interview. “These are existing contracts that have material volume trading on them and along with that comes established liquidity, better execution costs and fiat rails for getting collateral in and out efficiently and cheaply.”
The recent introduction of Kraken’s Embed crypto connectivity application means neobanks and fintechs in Europe can also offer derivatives, as well as spot, to their clients, Kurtas said.
Picking up licenses in smaller and arguably more nimble jurisdictions like Cyprus and Malta has become a well-trodden path for Crypto firms with deep pockets.
“More nimble is probably a fair characterization,” Kurtas said. “Also, there’s been an established set of firms, particularly in the CFD space, who traditionally have offered retail access to FX derivatives and CFDs, and so there’s kind of a nexus of individuals, firms and know-how, if you will, in the area for these products.”
Crypto traders are betting big on ether ETH in the wake of the recent rally.
Last week, block traders, typically institutions and large players, executed bull call spreads on ether, purchasing the $3,500 call options while simultaneously shorting an equal number of calls at the $6,000 strike, both set to expire on Dec. 26.
Traders executed the strategy via over-the-counter platform Paradigm, which was later listed on crypto exchange Deribit. Traders executed 30,000 contracts of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads across 10 separate trades, spending just over $7 million in initial debt/cost.
The strategy will yield the highest profit if ether rises to or beyond $6,000 by Dec. 26. On Paradigm and Deribit, one options contract represents one ETH.
Therefore, the large volume of the $3,500/$6,000 call spreads indicates a strong expectation of a bullish move to $6,000 by the end of the year. As of writing, ether changed hands at $2,510, according to CoinDesk data.
Note that if ETH stays below $3,600, the strategy will expire worth less, limiting the loss to the initial cost of $7 million. Another downside of this strategy is that traders stand to lose out on potential upside above $6,000 due to the short position at that strike level.
Ether’s price has risen over 80% to $2,500 since early April, when the broader market panic saw ETH hit a low of around $1,390 on several exchanges.
Magadini said there is no reason to call tops in ETH right now.
«I continue to like these upside trades, especially for the beat-up Ethereum, as risk assets continue to rally. There’s a good argument for ETH «catching-up» as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be calling tops right now,» Magadini said.
Strategy’s STRK Hits Record Proceeds, Has Outperformed Bitcoin, S&P 500 Since Debut
Kraken Rolls Out Regulated Crypto Derivatives in Europe
Ether Is Set to Explode as Traders Pump Millions Into $6K ETH Bets
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