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Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

Published

2 месяца ago

21 марта, 2025

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It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.

McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.

Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.

Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.

McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with $54 million in volume) during the last election to show that longer-term Polymarket markets often include obviously predictable outcomes, like Newsom clearly not winning, which boosts the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long-term predictions.

In contrast, head-to-head sports markets, which have fewer extreme outcomes such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, present a clearer representation of predictive accuracy, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in accuracy as events unfold and revealing periodic accuracy spikes.

Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on the outcomes of the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data portal Polymarket Analytics.

McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of Polymarket are likely to be of interest in Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that new Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what poll aggregators are showing.

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True Markets Raises $11M in Series A, Launches Mobile-First DeFi Trading App on Solana

Published

53 минуты ago

20 мая, 2025

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True Markets, a new decentralized finance (DeFi) trading platform focused on stablecoin-native execution, has launched its mobile app on Solana and closed an $11 million Series A, bringing total funding to $20 million, the company said in a press release Tuesday.

The funding round was co-led by Accomplice and RRE Ventures, with participation from Reciprocal Ventures, Variant Fund, and PayPal Ventures.

Seed investors Paxos Ventures and the Solana Foundation, continue to support the firm, True Markets said.

Founded by Coinbase (COIN) and Circle veterans Vishal Gupta and Patrick McCreary, New York-based True Markets aims to deliver a non-custodial, mobile-first DeFi trading experience for retail users, prioritizing speed, simplicity, and transparency.

The app enables stablecoin-powered token trading on Solana, with gasless execution, smart order routing, and embedded key management via Turnkey, all without users surrendering custody of funds, True Markets said.

“Retail traders have been stuck with clunky workflows, unclear pricing, and fragmented liquidity,» said Vishal Gupta, CEO of True Markets, in the release.

«Our goal is to deliver a fairer and more transparent experience that makes asset discovery simple, shows real-time market momentum, and feels as intuitive as the best apps on your phone,» Gupta added.

Backed by infrastructure partners Turnkey and Definitive, the app features real-time market sparklines, automated execution across decentralized venues, and hosted wallets that support immediate funding and trading within a non-custodial framework.

True Markets said it plans to expand into both CeFi and DeFi markets, with future integrations including TrueX, a centralized exchange designed for institutional liquidity and qualified custody.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Litecoin (LTC) Drops 6.1%, Leading Index Lower

Published

1 час ago

20 мая, 2025

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CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 3147.53, down 0.7% (-22.88) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.

Four of 20 assets are trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2025-05-20: full chart

Leaders: AAVE (+9.8%) and HBAR (+0.7%).

Laggards: LTC (-6.1%) and FIL (-2.9%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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KULR Boosts Bitcoin Treasury to 800 BTC With $9M Purchase

Published

2 часа ago

20 мая, 2025

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Energy management firm KULR (KULR) has expanded its bitcoin treasury to more than 800 tokens, with the purchase an additional $9 million worth of BTC.

The latest acquisition — made at an average price of $103,234 each — brings the total amount KULR has spent on the cryptocurrency to $78 million.

This continues the company’s treasury strategy first announced in December last year, under which it committed to holding up to 90% of its surplus cash reserves in bitcoin.

The Houston-based firm, which develops energy storage systems for aerospace and defense, is measuring the success of this pivot using a BTC Yield metric.

That metric tracks the growth in the ratio of bitcoin holdings to the number of shares outstanding, rather than actual dollar returns or revenue. So far in 2025, KULR says that ratio has jumped by 220, according to this morning’s press release.

KULR’s shares are up 3.15% in pre-market trading at $1.3.