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Bitcoin, Ether, Solana Likely to See 3%- 5% Price Swings on FOMC Rate Decision, Volmex’s Data Suggests

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-making body, is slated to publish its rate review later in the day, along with growth and inflation projections and interest rate forecast.
The widely-watched event is likely to breed crypto market volatility, spurring 3% to 5% price swings in bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). That’s the message from Volmex’s one-day implied volatility indices tied to BTC, ETH and SOL.
At 12:30 UTC, the bitcoin one-day IV index (BVIV) signaled an annualized volatility of 63.32%, equating to an expected 24-hour price swing of 3.31%. The daily move is calculated by dividing the annualized figure by the square root of 365, the total number of trading days in a year.
Similarly, ether and solana volatility indices suggested 24-hour price swings of 5.25% and 5.73%, respectively.
These figures might be scary for equity or currency traders but do not represent a major deviation from the normal in the crypto market. In other words, the Fed event, though pivotal, is unlikely to result in an immediate volatility explosion.
The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark borrowing cost steady while signaling an end of its prolonged quantitive tightening program. However, gains in risk assets may be tempered by a potential stagflationary adjustment in the summary of economic projections.
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First Solana Futures ETF To Hit Markets This Week

Two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking futures in Solana (SOL) are coming on the market on Thursday.
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Volatility Shares LLC is launching two ETFs, the Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) which will track Solana futures and the Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT), which offers leveraged exposure.
SOLZ will have a management fee of 0.95% while traders will be charged 1.85% for SOLT, according to the filing.
The products will be the first-ever funds tracking futures in Solana, which at a market cap of $66.5 billion is the sixth largest cryptocurrency on the market. The token is up 6% over the past 24 hours, in line with the broader crypto market.
The launch of these funds could be significant in the approval of a spot Solana ETF, which would hold the token directly. The SEC has stated in the past that in order to approve a spot product, they would like to see an established futures market for the asset.
After the launch of the spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs last year, issuers have been looking to bring further crypto-related products to the market.
Several issuers, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and VanEck, have filed paperwork to launch a spot Solana ETF, which have yet to be reviewed by the SEC. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts believe there to be a 75% chance for those funds to be approved by the end of this year.
However, a decision likely won’t be made before Paul Atkins, who has been nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as chair of the SEC, is confirmed by the Senate. There is currently no hearing scheduled for Atkins.
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Fed Holds Rates Steady, Cuts Growth Outlook, Raises Inflation Forecast

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, the second consecutive pause since three straight rate cuts to end 2024.
The Fed’s quarterly economic projections, though, showed a sharp decline in expectations for economic growth, with the GDP increase in 2025 now seen at just 1.7% versus 2.1% at the December forecast. The growth outlooks for 2026 and 2027 were trimmed as well.
«Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,» the Fed said in an accompanying statement, which is likely a reference to the tumult surrounding the tariff regime being threatened by President Trump.
Alongside slowing growth, core PCE inflation is now seen at 2.8% this year versus the previous 2.5% projection. The core inflation outlooks for 2026 and 2027 were left at 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.
The «dot plot» — showing FOMC members’ outlooks for where interest rates might be headed — still sees the fed funds rate ending this year at 3.9%, the same as December’s forecast. The ending fed funds rates for 2026 and 2027 continue to be projected at 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively.
The Fed also said it would begin to slow the pace of securities runoff from its balance sheet — so-called quantitative tightening — beginning on April 1. The decline in Treasury paper then will be trimmed to just $5 billion from $25 billion previously.
Bitcoin (BTC) was volatile in the minutes immediately following the release, but headed lower at press time to $83,500 against just above $84,000 prior to the news.
U.S. stocks continue to hold solid gains and the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped two basis points to 4.28%. Gold, the star of late among asset classes, remains near a record high at $3,048 per ounce.
Risk assets have been beaten down over the past few weeks as mounting concerns over President Trump’s tariff threats and its perceived impact on inflation and economic growth weighed on investor sentiment. The Fed turning hawkish at the December and January meetings also quashed hopes of looser financial conditions for the near-term, posing headwinds for cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (18:30 UTC) with traders monitoring the press conference for further clues of policymakers’ outlook on monetary policy.
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The Protocol: Meet Hoodi, Ethereum’s New Testnet

Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk’s weekly wrap-up of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, CoinDesk’s Ethereum Reporter.
In this issue:
Hello, Hoodi: Ethereum Welcomes a New Testnet
Microsoft Raises Alarm of Malware Targeting Coinbase, MetaMask Wallets
Halliday Raises $20M for AI Protocol to Eliminate Writing Smart Contracts for DeFi
Sam Altman’s World Network and Razer Want to Defeat Gaming’s Bot Problem
This article is featured in the latest issue of The Protocol, our weekly newsletter exploring the tech behind crypto, one block at a time. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.
Network news
HELLO, HOODI: ETHEREUM WELCOMES A NEW TESTNET: Ethereum developers launched a new test network, Hoodi, this week that will be used to carry out the blockchain’s upcoming “Pectra” upgrade. Pectra will go live on Hoodi on March 26, and if all goes well, the long-awaited upgrade will proceed to Ethereum’s mainnet roughly 30 days later, according to the network’s core developers. Hoodi was created following faulty Pectra tests on Ethereum’s other testnets, Holesky and Sepolia, which failed to finalize properly due to problems with how they were configured. Test networks like Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi aim to mimic the main Ethereum network — allowing developers the opportunity to test out code changes or major upgrades like Pectra in a low-stakes environment before deploying them to the mainnet. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.
MICROSOFT RAISES ALARM OF MALWARE TARGETING COINBASE, METAMASK WALLETS: Tech giant Microsoft shared a new report warning of malware that targets 20 of the most popular cryptocurrency wallets used with the Google Chrome extension. Microsoft’s Incident Response researchers raised alarms of a new remote access trojan (RAT), dubbed StilachiRAT, which could deploy “sophisticated techniques to evade detection, persist in the target environment, and exfiltrate sensitive data,” the team shared in a blog post. The malware was discovered in November 2024, and it could steal users’ wallet information, and any credentials, including usernames and passwords, stored in their Google Chrome browser. StilachiRAT targets 20 crypto wallets including some of the most widely-used ones like MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Phantom, OKX Wallet, and BNB Chain Wallet. While the malware has not been distributed widely, Microsoft did share that it has not been able to identify what entity is behind the threat and laid out some mitigation guidelines for current targets including installing antivirus software. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.
HALLIDAY RAISES $20M FOR AI PROTOCOL TO ELIMINATE WRITING SMART CONTRACTS FOR DEFI: Artificial intelligence (AI)-focused blockchain protocol Halliday said it raised $20 million to help fund development of its Agentic Workflow Protocol (AWP), which aims to speed development of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and avoid the need for programmers to write smart contracts. The Series A funding round was led by venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz’s (a16z) crypto arm. «Our mission is to pioneer the software era of blockchain, enabling developers to build applications in hours, not years,» Halliday said in an emailed announcement. «With Halliday, you can never write a smart contract again.»— Jamie Crawley + AI Boost Read more.
SAM ALTMAN’S WORLD NETWORK AND RAZER WANT TO DEFEAT GAMING’S BOT PROBLEM: Sam Altman’s blockchain project, World Network, is teaming up with gaming hardware firm Razer on a suite of features designed to weed out bots from video games. “Razer ID verified by World ID” is a single sign-on mechanism that will verify real human gamers from bots. It’s built atop Razer ID, Razer’s existing login service, and will help guarantee there’s «a real person behind every Razer ID account,” according to a statement shared by Razer and World. The collaboration between the two firms comes as artificial intelligence (AI) tools are seeping into every corner of online life — including inside of video games, which have been plagued by non-human AI «bots» since long before the rise of Altman’s ChatGPT. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.
In Other News
EOS Network, known for its scalable blockchain infrastructure, is rebranding to Vaulta as it pivots toward Web3 banking. The transition comes with a token swap that is provisionally scheduled for the end of May. It also comes with the launch of the Vaulta Banking Advisory Council, a group of financial and blockchain industry experts focused on bridging the gap between traditional banking and decentralized systems. Members include executives from Systemic Trust, Tetra, and ATB Financial, according to a press release shared with CoinDesk. — Francisco Rodrigues reports.
Solana-based decentralized exchange Raydium is set to start its own token issuance platform in the coming weeks to drive more revenue to the already-popular trading service. Raydium’s LaunchLab will initially resemble the hit token issuance platform Pump.Fun, Blockworks first reported. Though developers say it will have several added features that make it more appealing for token launches. — Shaurya Malwa reports.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to drop its appeal against Ripple, ending a four-year legal battle, according to the company’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse. The XRP token, which is closely associated with Ripple, jumped 10% on Wednesday during U.S. morning hours after Garlinghouse posted about the news on X. — Krisztian Sandor and Helene Braun report.
Calendar
March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit, New York
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 30-May 1: Token 2049, Dubai
May 14-16: Consensus, Toronto
May 20-22: Avalanche Summit, London
May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025, Las Vegas
June 30-July 3: EthCC, Cannes
Oct. 1-2: Token2049, Singapore
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