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Bitcoin Storm Could Be Brewing, Crypto OnChain Options Platform Derive Says

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The calm that has returned to the bitcoin (BTC) market may be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for a storm that could trigger significant price volatility, according to insights from the decentralized crypto on-chain options platform Derive.

Since March 12, BTC has settled in the $80K-$85K range in a consolidation typically seen after a notable directional move. Prices tanked from $100K to under $80K in preceding weeks due to several factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and disappointment about the lack of new purchases in the U.S. strategic BTC reserve.

With the latest consolidation, key volatility metrics have declined, nearing monthly lows. Volatility, however, is mean-reverting, meaning the low-volatility regime could soon pave the way for price turbulence, according to Derive.

«BTC’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dipped below 50% to 49%, approaching monthly lows of 45%. Realized volatility has also dropped from 91% at the start of the month to 54% today,» Nick Forster, founder of Derive, wrote in a recent note shared with CoinDesk.

It is important to remember that volatility is price agnostic, meaning that the expected increase in volatility does not indicate the direction of the price movement in bitcoin.

“Volatility is mean-reverting, so we can expect it to rise soon, likely to levels seen in February (60-70%),» Forster added.

Whether prices rise or fall, volatility can increase, suggesting that significant price swings could occur in either direction.

According to Derive, several factors could trigger volatility, including «a ceasefire (or lack thereof) in Ukraine, or significant shifts in crypto regulatory policy under the Trump administration.»

Derive is the world’s leading on-chain AI-powered options protocol with a total value locked of nearly $100 million. The protocol has registered a cumulative trading volume of $15 billion to date.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision could move markets as well.

The central bank is likely to keep rates unchanged, with traders pricing two to three rate cuts later this year. But a dovish surprise could recharge bulls’ engines for a sharp move higher.

Potential Fed rate cuts, however, could be limited, according to BlackRock.

«Markets have priced in about two to three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, versus expectations for just one earlier this year. We think this reflects U.S. recession fears even though economic condition don’t point to a downturn. Even if prolonged uncertainty hurts growth, we still see persistent inflation limiting how much the Fed can cut,» BlackRock said in a weekly note.

The expected volatility boom could happen to the downside should equity markets continue to fall, accelerating the decline in crypto prices.

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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on

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.

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