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Bitcoin, S&P 500 Take Backseat to Stagflation Trade as Trump Tariffs Threaten to Derail Growth

No one dared to speak about the potential for stagflation, the dreaded word representing portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, at the World Economic Forum in Davos early this year despite the looming Trump tariff and trade war.
However, investors have acknowledged the s-word risk, leading to the outperformance of stagflation-linked strategies relative to the buy-and-hold bitcoin and the S&P 500.
As of last week, Goldman Sachs’ «stagflation basket,» which bets on strength in commodities and defensive plays like health care and shorts on the consumer discretionary, semiconductors and unprofitable tech stocks, was up nearly 20% for the year..
The S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, has dropped 4% this year, with bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, down 10%, per data source TradingView and CoinDesk.
The International Monetary Fund defines stagflation as a situation where high inflation coincides with economic stagnation, high unemployment and a general decline in economic activity.
«It does seem like stock and bond prices are adjusting for lower growth and higher inflation [stagflation] — although, there are other factors at work here — healthcare, for instance, is most likely benefitting from the promise of deregulation offsetting direct funding cuts,» Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk.
Stagflation murmurs have been heard since early 2022, but markets have begun pricing the same this year, mainly due to Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade tensions.
Forward-looking inflation metrics like two-year and five-year swaps rose to multi-year highs, a sign of fears of a trade war making consumption pricier. Meanwhile, a key section of the Treasury market yield curve recently flipped into inversion, signaling a recession ahead. Several real-time GDP trackers, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDP, have signaled a sharp contraction in economic activity.
BTC failed as digital gold?
A potential stagflation is perfect situation for assets with perceived store of value appeals such as bitcoin to shine. Note that gold has gained 13% this year.
However, the bull case in the cryptocurrency propounded by its holders for years hasn’t materialized. In fact, BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened over the past few weeks.
That does not necessarily mean BTC is no longer a safe haven, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.
«BTC is short-term a risk asset with prices set by the last short-term trade — long-term, it’s a safe haven given its verifiable hard cap and global utility — these days, the market is in a risk-off mood, so macro portfolios are lightening positions, and we have yet to see the new inflows necessary to get the next leg of its run going — this could take some time, as uncertainty is high for both professional investors and retail,» Acheson noted.
She explained that tailwinds remain intact and once the market adjusts to the new economic landscape, inflows into the crypto market will likely resume.
«The tailwinds remain intact, with education spreading, new institutional services coming online and jurisdictions around the world drawing up regulatory frameworks that institutions will be comfortable with (and through them, mainstream retail),» Acheson said.
Stagflation mispricing
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, offered a slightly different take, saying the market is wrong in reading the situation as stagflation.
«What we’re likely seeing is a front-loading of tariff impacts, driving a temporary spike in commodity demand that should fade in the coming months. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding DOGE is weighing on growth expectations,» Thielen told CoinDesk.
He added that a potential dovish tone from the Fed later this week could revive a bullish mood in risk assets, including BTC. Last week, Trump halted a plan to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports to 50%. The Fed is set to announce its rate review on Wednesday.
«Recent comments from Trump suggesting a potential softening of aggressive trade policies combined with a possible mildly dovish tone from the Fed this week could set the stage for a rebound in growth-oriented assets. Historically, betting on prolonged stagflation has rarely been a winning strategy over the past 40 years,» Thielen noted.
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Hashdex Seeks to Expand U.S. Crypto ETF to Include Litecoin, XRP and Other Altcoins

Crypto asset manager Hashdex filed an amendment with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking to add litecoin (LTC) and XRP among other cryptocurrencies to its Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF.
The proposal also lists cardano’s ADA, solana’s SOL and other altcoins including LINK, AVAX and UNI. The fund is currently mostly bitcoin (BTC) with some exposure to ether (ETH), according to Hashdex’s website.
An alternative version of the fund traded on the Bermuda Stock Exchange, the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF, already offers exposure to the broader basket of cryptocurrencies. The Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF is designed to track a diversified set of digital assets, offering investors regulated exposure to the crypto market.
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Tokenization Specialists Securitize and Ethena Unveil Institutional DeFi Blockchain

Securitize and Ethena Labs, two firms working closely with BlackRock’s money market token BUIDL, have created an Ethereum-compatible blockchain called Converge, designed to house tokenized assets and provide institutional investors with the innovation of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Ethena, which offers a yield-bearing USDe token as well as a BUIDL-backed USDtb stablecoin, will migrate its $6 billion DeFi ecosystem to Converge, while Securitize, the transfer agent for BlackRock’s BUIDL token, will bring its suite of tokenized real world assets (RWAs), like the recently-issued Apollo credit fund token, to the new chain.
From in the early days of DeFi there has been a concerted effort to expand beyond cryptocurrencies and bring traditional assets on chain as collateral. Today, traditional financial firms are clamouring to get in the tokenization race, so it makes sense for firms like Securitize and Ethena to create an institutional-friendly path to DeFi.
“Tokenization, per se, is just putting your securities on a different ledger, and it produces cost savings and efficiencies, but it doesn’t necessarily lead to anything significantly different in terms of what you can do with these assets,” said Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo in an interview. “On the other hand, crypto has been developing very novel ways of using digital assets. If you could actually bring that DeFi innovation back into the RWA space it could make it explode.”
Securitize and Ethena have brought a sturdy firm of initial partners to Converge, including Pendle, Avara (the parent company of Aave Labs), Ethereal, Morpho, and Maple Finance. Custodial services will be provided by Copper, Fireblocks, Komainu, and Zodia, while interoperability will come via LayerZero, Wormhole and oracle support from RedStone.
Looking ahead to what can be built using the Converge blockchain, Ethena founder Guy Young said there will be new products courtesy of Securitize to be housed on the chain, opening up new use cases.
“That might be using this stuff as collateral within tailor-made money markets, or it could be trading of different assets which don’t exist on-chain now at real scale, so that might be equities or whatever, going forward,” Young said in an interview. “We think something that’s purpose built for this intersection of TradFi and Defi is going to be one of the largest opportunities over the next few years.”
Converge will be compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), enabling it to run Ethereum-based smart contracts, dApps, and tools without modification. It will boast performance that is in line with industry-leading blockchains, according to a press release.
Ethena’s native governance token, ENA, will serve as a stakeable asset (via sENA) for Converge, securing the network with a permissioned validator set composed of traditional finance entities and centralized exchanges. Both USDe and USDtb will serve as gas tokens for the network.
Converge is a public open chain with a kind of know-your-customer (KYC) wrapper, which goes beyond mere whitelisting of wallets, Domingo said.
“DeFi today is designed specifically for permissionless and anonymous market participants and freely transactable assets,” Domingo said. “To bring that innovation in a context where the collateral and the asset that you’re pledging into the protocol is actually a regulated instrument, there are a bunch of things beyond purely white listing wallets and KYC.”
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Canary Capital Files for SUI ETF After Reserve Deal With World Liberty Financial

Canary Capital has submitted paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the price of Sui (SUI), a layer-1 blockchain.
The hedge fund manager on Monday submitted an S-1 filing with the SEC after previously registering a trust entity in the state of Delaware — on March 7 — which appeared on the state’s Division of Corporations website.
Canary Capital has filed several crypto ETF filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in recent months, including for Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL) and XRP, among others.
The decision to launch a SUI ETF comes 10 days after Trump-affiliated decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial (WLFI), said that it would add Sui assets to its token reserve and explore product development opportunities.
SUI jumped on the news, currently trading at $2.34. While the token is up over 52% over the past 12 months, zooming into the past month, it is down about 31%.
Canary Capital is now expected to file a 19b-4 document with the SEC, making its plans for a SUI fund official.
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