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Bitcoin, S&P 500 Take Backseat to Stagflation Trade as Trump Tariffs Threaten to Derail Growth

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No one dared to speak about the potential for stagflation, the dreaded word representing portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, at the World Economic Forum in Davos early this year despite the looming Trump tariff and trade war.

However, investors have acknowledged the s-word risk, leading to the outperformance of stagflation-linked strategies relative to the buy-and-hold bitcoin and the S&P 500.

As of last week, Goldman Sachs’ «stagflation basket,» which bets on strength in commodities and defensive plays like health care and shorts on the consumer discretionary, semiconductors and unprofitable tech stocks, was up nearly 20% for the year..

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, has dropped 4% this year, with bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, down 10%, per data source TradingView and CoinDesk.

The International Monetary Fund defines stagflation as a situation where high inflation coincides with economic stagnation, high unemployment and a general decline in economic activity.

«It does seem like stock and bond prices are adjusting for lower growth and higher inflation [stagflation] — although, there are other factors at work here — healthcare, for instance, is most likely benefitting from the promise of deregulation offsetting direct funding cuts,» Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk.

Stagflation murmurs have been heard since early 2022, but markets have begun pricing the same this year, mainly due to Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade tensions.

Forward-looking inflation metrics like two-year and five-year swaps rose to multi-year highs, a sign of fears of a trade war making consumption pricier. Meanwhile, a key section of the Treasury market yield curve recently flipped into inversion, signaling a recession ahead. Several real-time GDP trackers, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDP, have signaled a sharp contraction in economic activity.

BTC failed as digital gold?

A potential stagflation is perfect situation for assets with perceived store of value appeals such as bitcoin to shine. Note that gold has gained 13% this year.

However, the bull case in the cryptocurrency propounded by its holders for years hasn’t materialized. In fact, BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened over the past few weeks.

That does not necessarily mean BTC is no longer a safe haven, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.

«BTC is short-term a risk asset with prices set by the last short-term trade — long-term, it’s a safe haven given its verifiable hard cap and global utility — these days, the market is in a risk-off mood, so macro portfolios are lightening positions, and we have yet to see the new inflows necessary to get the next leg of its run going — this could take some time, as uncertainty is high for both professional investors and retail,» Acheson noted.

She explained that tailwinds remain intact and once the market adjusts to the new economic landscape, inflows into the crypto market will likely resume.

«The tailwinds remain intact, with education spreading, new institutional services coming online and jurisdictions around the world drawing up regulatory frameworks that institutions will be comfortable with (and through them, mainstream retail),» Acheson said.

Stagflation mispricing

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, offered a slightly different take, saying the market is wrong in reading the situation as stagflation.

«What we’re likely seeing is a front-loading of tariff impacts, driving a temporary spike in commodity demand that should fade in the coming months. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding DOGE is weighing on growth expectations,» Thielen told CoinDesk.

He added that a potential dovish tone from the Fed later this week could revive a bullish mood in risk assets, including BTC. Last week, Trump halted a plan to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports to 50%. The Fed is set to announce its rate review on Wednesday.

«Recent comments from Trump suggesting a potential softening of aggressive trade policies combined with a possible mildly dovish tone from the Fed this week could set the stage for a rebound in growth-oriented assets. Historically, betting on prolonged stagflation has rarely been a winning strategy over the past 40 years,» Thielen noted.

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.

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