Uncategorized
Crypto Daybook Americas: Risk-Off Vibe Lifts Bitcoin With CPI Data Looming
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Macroeconomic factors continue to drive bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term price volatility as it holds steady above $80,000, with a wave of significant news emerging over the past 24 hours.
Still, there’s a risk-off feeling in the air as the divergence between bitcoin and the broader crypto market grows. Bitcoin dominance has surged to 62%, approaching a year-to-date high, while the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has turned negative on a four-year compound annual basis, meaning ETH is underperforming.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars persist as another concern reining in optimism in the market. That’s not just with Canada, but also in the form of metal tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union.
One of the most intriguing developments comes from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has filed to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the size of the sale remains undisclosed, it’s worth noting the country is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, possessing $379 billion as of the end of 2024. If the sale proceeds, it could put upward pressure on yields, which is the opposite of what Trump wants.
The Treasury yield narrative is paramount because roughly $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This is one of the key reasons why the U.S. administration is eager to bring down Treasury yields.
More immediately, market attention is turning to today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset bulls hoping for a softer inflation print. The S&P 500 is hovering around correction territory, down nearly 10%. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, risk assets could face further downside. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 12: Hemi (HEMI), an L2 blockchain that operates on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, has its mainnet launch.
March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.
March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users as it transitions to a fully automated revenue-sharing protocol.
March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.
March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade which activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”
March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
Macro
March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February consumer price inflation data.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.16%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%
March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.3%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%
March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.
Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%
March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service releases February consumer price inflation data.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 1.2%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 10.1% vs. Prev. 9.9%
March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03
March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Uniswap DAO is discussing continuing treasury delegation to maintain governance stability and retain active delegates, including a renewed framework and structure expiration and allocation mechanisms.
March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantra to host a Community Connect call with its CEO and Co-Founder to discuss various major updates.
March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantle Network to hold a Surge Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
March 13, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to hold a Planetary Call.
Unlocks
March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million.
March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.
March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.35 million.
March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $31.53 million.
March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.60 million.
March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $12.70 million.
Token Listings
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 3 of 3: AIBC Africa (Cape Town)
Day 2 of 2: VanEck Southern California Blockchain Conference 2025 (Los Angeles)
March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25
March 16, 6:00 p.m.: Solana AI Summit (San Jose, Calif.)
March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)
March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025
March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)
March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires
March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)
March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
The freshly issued BMT tokens of Bubblemaps, a crypto transparency and on-chain analysis tool, are down more than 50% since going live on Tuesday.
Bubblemaps uses clustering to group wallet addresses into bubbles, revealing whale concentrations, insider control or suspicious patterns (e.g. a deployer with 76% of supply), helping investors assess risks through visual ownership maps.
BMT can be used to access an «Intel Desk» for community-driven scam investigations and premium analytics features, and participate in governance.
People are slamming BMT for a nearly 90% supply concentration in one wallet, a mintable contract risking inflation, an elitist airdrop excluding many, and unlocked liquidity raising rug-pull fears, which is rather ironic for a transparency-focused project.
Derivatives Positioning
Cumulative open interest in ETH standard and perpetual futures has risen to 9.75 million ETH, the highest since Feb. 3. The count has increased from 8.4 million ETH four weeks ago, which shows traders have been selling into the falling market.
Open interest in BTC perp and standard futures remains light, with funding rates marginally positive. SOL, ADA, TRX and LINK still see negative perpetual funding rates.
Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to exhibit a bias for puts out to May expiry, with meaningful constructive outlook for calls emerging from the third quarter.
Overnight block flows featured selling higher strike BTC and ETH calls and purchase of short-tenor puts.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $82,577.14 (24hrs: +0.87%)
ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41 (24hrs: -1.58%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1% at 2,556.70 (24hrs: +0.52%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 32 bps at 3.43%
BTC funding rate is at 0.007% (2.54% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.31% at 103.52
Gold is unchanged at $2,914.29/oz
Silver is up 0.69% at $33.01/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,819.09
Hang Seng closed -0.76 at 23,600.31
FTSE is up 0.43% at 8,532.17
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.19% at 5,373.08
DJIA closed on Tuesday -1.14% at 41,433.48
S&P 500 closed -0.76% at 5,572.07
Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 17,436.10
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.54% at 24,248.20
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.44% at 2,307.52
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.28%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.54% at 5,607.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 19,529.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.37% at 41,627.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 62.13 (-0.16%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02290 (-0.06%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $46.1
Total Fees: 6.03 BTC / $490,764
CME Futures Open Interest: 142,725 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%
Technical Analysis
The dollar index, which represents the greenback’s exchange rate against a basket of fiat currencies, has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support of the late September to January rally.
The breakdown means a potential soft U.S. CPI release could easily send the index sliding to 102.31, the 78.6% retracement support.
A deeper slide in the dollar could bode well for risk assets, including BTC.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $260.59 (+8.91%), down 0.58% at $259.09 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.69 (+6.95%), unchanged in pre-market
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.27 (-1.09%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.32 (-0.67%), down 0.68% at $13.23
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.72 (+2.12%), down 0.26% at $7.70
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.63 (+7.74%), down 0.46% at $8.59
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.26 (+3.51%), down 0.73% at $8.20
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.08 (+4.14%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.80 (+0.18%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.50 (-0.41%), up 0.94% at $24.73
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$371 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.47 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,121 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$21.6 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.66 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.571 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows daily trading volume on Hyperliquid, the leading perpetual-focused decentralized exchange.
Despite the market swoon, volumes have held remarkably steady, contrasting the sharp slowdown on other avenues like Solana’s Raydium.
While You Were Sleeping
EU Retaliates After Donald Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Take Effect (Financial Times): The European Commission’s initial retaliatory tariffs on whiskey, jeans and motorcycles take effect April 1 with additional levies on industrial and agricultural exports expected by mid-April.
Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Slides to $490, Undoing the ‘Trump Bump’ in BTC (CoinDesk): Traders are scaling back expectations that Trump’s presidency will boost crypto.
BOJ Unfazed by Rising Bond Yields, Signals Resolve to Keep Hiking Rates (Reuters): The governor of the Bank of Japan indicated no plans to intervene as markets expect further rate hikes, driven by wage growth and higher prices.
Franklin Templeton Joins XRP ETF Rush, Files Preliminary Application With SEC (CoinDesk): The American asset management giant filed a registration statement Tuesday for a spot XRP ETF that would trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange.
Metaplanet Increases Bitcoin Holdings With $13.5M Purchase and Bond Issuance (CoinDesk): The Japanese company bought 162 BTC and issued 2 billion yen in zero-interest bonds to expand its bitcoin reserves.
Japanese Tech Giants Sony and LINE Join Forces in Blockchain Deal (CoinDesk): Sony’s blockchain division is partnering with the Japanese social media giant to bring four mini-apps to the Soneium blockchain. The aim is to facilitate features like in-game rewards and purchases.
In the Ether
Ethereum is in the midst of a paradox. Even as ether hit record highs in late August, decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on Ethereum’s layer-1 (L1) looks muted compared to its peak in late 2021. Fees collected on mainnet in August were just $44 million, a 44% drop from the prior month.
Meanwhile, layer-2 (L2) networks like Arbitrum and Base are booming, with $20 billion and $15 billion in total value locked (TVL) respectively.
This divergence raises a crucial question: are L2s cannibalizing Ethereum’s DeFi activity, or is the ecosystem evolving into a multi-layered financial architecture?
AJ Warner, the chief strategy officer of Offchain Labs, the developer firm behind layer-2 Arbitrum, argues that the metrics are more nuanced than just layer-2 DeFi chipping at the layer 1.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Warner said that focusing solely on TVL misses the point, and that Ethereum is increasingly functioning as crypto’s “global settlement layer,” a foundation for high-value issuance and institutional activity. Products like Franklin Templeton’s tokenized funds or BlackRock’s BUIDL product launch directly on Ethereum L1 — activity that isn’t fully captured in DeFi metrics but underscores Ethereum’s role as the bedrock of crypto finance.
Ethereum as a layer-1 blockchain is the secure but relatively slow and expensive base network. Layer-2s are scaling networks built on top of it, designed to handle transactions faster and at a fraction of the cost before ultimately settling back to Ethereum for security. That’s why they’ve become so appealing to traders and builders alike. Metrics like TVL, the amount of crypto deposited in DeFi protocols, highlight this shift, as activity is moved to L2s where lower fees and quicker confirmations make everyday DeFi far more practical.
Warner likens Ethereum’s place in the ecosystem to a wire transfer in traditional finance: trusted, secure and used for large-scale settlement. Everyday transactions, however, are migrating to L2s — the Venmos and PayPals of crypto.
“Ethereum was never going to be a monolithic blockchain with all the activity happening on it,” Warner told CoinDesk. Instead, it’s meant to anchor security while enabling rollups to execute faster, cheaper and more diverse applications.
Layer 2s, which have exploded over the last few years because they are seen as the faster and cheaper alternative to Ethereum, enable whole categories of DeFi that don’t function as well on mainnet. Fast-paced trading strategies, like arbitraging price differences between exchanges or running perpetual futures, don’t work well on Ethereum’s slower 12-second blocks. But on Arbitrum, where transactions finalize in under a second, those same strategies become possible, Warner explained. This is apparent, as Ethereum has had fewer than 50 million transactions over the last month, compared to Base’s 328 million transactions and Arbitrum’s 77 million transactions, according to L2Beat.
Builders also see L2s as an ideal testing ground. Alice Hou, a research analyst at Messari, pointed to innovations like Uniswap V4’s hooks, customizable features that can be iterated far more cheaply on L2s before going mainstream. For developers, quicker confirmations and lower costs are more than a convenience: they expand what’s possible.
“L2s provide a natural playground to test these kinds of innovations, and once a hook achieves breakout popularity, it could attract new types of users who engage with DeFi in ways that weren’t feasible on L1,” Hou said.
But the shift isn’t just about technology. Liquidity providers are responding to incentives. Hou said that data shows smaller liquidity providers increasingly prefer L2s where yield incentives and lower slippage amplify returns. Larger liquidity providers, however, still cluster on Ethereum, prioritizing security and depth of liquidity over bigger yields.
Interestingly, while L2s are capturing more activity, flagship DeFi protocols like Aave and Uniswap still lean heavily on mainnet. Aave has consistently kept about 90% of its TVL on Ethereum. With Uniswap however, there’s been an incremental shift towards L2 activity.
Another factor accelerating L2 adoption is user experience. Wallets, bridges and fiat on-ramps increasingly steer newcomers directly to L2s, Hou said. Ultimately, the data suggests the L1 vs. L2 debate isn’t zero-sum.
As of September 2025, about a third of L2 TVL still comes bridged from Ethereum, another third is natively minted, and the rest comes via external bridges.
“This mix shows that while Ethereum remains a key source of liquidity, L2s are also developing their own native ecosystems and attracting cross-chain assets,” Hou said.
Ethereum thus as a base layer appears to be cementing itself as the secure settlement engine for global finance, while rollups like Arbitrum and Base are emerging as execution layers for fast, cheap and creative DeFi applications.
“Most payments I make use something like Zelle or PayPal… but when I bought my home, I used a wire. That’s somewhat parallel to what’s happening between Ethereum layer one and layer twos,” Warner of Offchain Labs said.
Read more: Ethereum DeFi Lags Behind, Even as Ether Price Crossed Record Highs
CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 4267.12, up 0.7% (+27.81) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.
Leaders: AVAX (+4.6%) and NEAR (+2.9%).
Laggards: AAVE (-0.9%) and BCH (-0.2%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
The digital banking arm of Spanish financial giant Santander Group, Openbank, opened cryptocurrency trading for customers in Germany, with plans to add its home market in the next few weeks.
The new service allows users to buy, sell and hold five popular cryptocurrencies: bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), litecoin (LTC), polygon (MATIC) and cardano (ADA), according to a press release. The cryptocurrencies are available alongside stocks, ETFs and investment funds.
Customers can trade without moving funds to an external platform, keeping all investments in one place under Santander’s umbrella, the bank said.
“By incorporating the main cryptocurrencies into our investment platform, we are responding to the demand of some of our customers,” said Coty de Monteverde, head of crypto at Grupo Santander.
The bank charges a 1.49% fee per transaction, with a 1 euro ($1.2) minimum, and does not include custody fees. The bank said it plans to add more cryptocurrencies and new features, such as crypto-to-crypto conversions, in coming months.
Santander Private Bank was back in 2023 making headlines when it started letting clients with accounts in Switzerland trade BTC and ETH. It selected crypto safekeeping technology firm Taurus for custody.
Is Ethereum’s DeFi Future on L2s? Liquidity, Innovation Say Perhaps Yes
CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Avalanche (AVAX) Gains 4.6% as Index Moves Higher
Santander’s Openbank Starts Offering Crypto Trading in Germany, Spain Coming Soon
-
Business11 месяцев ago3 Ways to make your business presentation more relatable
-
Fashion11 месяцев ago
According to Dior Couture, this taboo fashion accessory is back
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
10 Artists who retired from music and made a comeback
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
\’Better Call Saul\’ has been renewed for a fourth season
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
New Season 8 Walking Dead trailer flashes forward in time
-
Business11 месяцев ago
15 Habits that could be hurting your business relationships
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
Meet Superman\’s grandfather in new trailer for Krypton
-
Entertainment11 месяцев ago
Disney\’s live-action Aladdin finally finds its stars