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Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Slides to $490, Undoing The ‘Trump Bump’ in BTC

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The bullish sentiment seen after Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 Presidential elections has completely fizzled out, according to an indicator tied to the CME bitcoin (BTC) futures.

The indicator in consideration is the spread between «continuous» next month and front-month standard BTC futures trading on the global derivatives giant. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a series of successively expiring futures contracts, allowing for a continuous historical data series for analysis.

The spread has narrowed to $495, the lowest since Nov. 5, having peaked at $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to data source TradingView. In other words, it has completely reversed the Trump bump in a sign of weakening bullish sentiment in the market.

«The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could suggest traders are tempering their price expectations,» Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.

The unwinding of the Trump bump likely means the market has moved past the narrative that a pro-crypto President in the White House is good for the industry, and macro correlations are back in the driver’s seat.

«What we can see is that the front contract basis has repriced lower substantially since the beginning of March, signalling moderating near term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally—the election of President Trump—has been fully priced in,» Erdosi said.

That’s already happening. Both BTC and Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, have dropped 20% and 8%, respectively, since early February on a myriad of factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, Trump tariffs and the outlook for inflation and economic growth.

Additionally, the bitcoin market had to digest disappointment over the lack of fresh purchases in Trump’s strategic digital asset reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order, directing a creation of a strategic reserve that includes BTC seized in enforcement actions.

«The announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it caused a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,» Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics, told CoinDesk in an email.

Futures are still in contango

While the spread between next month and front month CME futures contracts has narrowed, the entire curve remains in contango, where far-dated futures contracts (with longer maturities) trade at a premium to near-dated.

That’s how it usually is in all markets due to factors like storage, financing, insurance costs, and expectations of rising prices over coming weeks or months.

«The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests the recent move is driven by unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than broader market contagion,» Erdösi noted.

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Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy

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The Australian Government announced an ambitious whole-of-government approach to regulating and integrating digital assets into the broader economy, inspired by work done in the European Union (EU) and Singapore.

In a white paper published by the Australian Treasury, the country’s government says it will embrace tokenization, real-world assets (RWAs), and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as part of a broader push to modernize its financial system.

While ruling out a retail CBDC for now, the government sees a wholesale CBDC version and tokenized settlement infrastructure as key to unlocking market efficiency and broader asset access.

The government says that the Australian Treasury, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia are planning to launch pilot trials that use tokenized money, including stablecoins, to settle transactions in wholesale tokenized markets.

«Markets for tokenized assets may be able to increase automation, reduce settlement risk, lessen reliance on multiple financial intermediaries, simplify trading processes, reduce transaction costs, and provide broader access to traditionally illiquid assets,» the report reads.

The white paper also presents a licensing structure for crypto exchanges, which will be known in Australia as Digital Asset Platforms (DAPs).

Operators of DAPs will need to meet financial services obligations such as capital adequacy and disclosure requirements while also using third-party custodians to store customer assets.

The Government is also planning on addressing industry concerns of de-banking through its DAP licensing regime, it said in the white paper, to allow for banking partners to better engage in risk management.

This anti-debanking effort in Australia follows continued U.S. hearings on the topic, where Senator Tim Scott’s FIRM Act seeks to stop regulators from using «reputational risk» to block out crypto firms from accessing banking rails.

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Metaplanet, Japan’s Biggest Corporate Bitcoin Holder, Adds Eric Trump as Advisor

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Tokyo-based Metaplanet is forming a strategic board of advisors with Eric Trump as one of the appointees, as the company continues to spur bitcoin (BTC) adoption, according to a press release on Friday.

“We are honored to welcome Eric Trump as the first member of our Strategic Board of Advisors and look forward to welcoming him to our annual meeting,” said Simon Gerovich, Representative Director of Metaplanet Inc, in the release.

“His business acumen, love of the Bitcoin community and global hospitality perspective will be invaluable in accelerating Metaplanet’s vision of becoming one of the world’s leading Bitcoin Treasury Companies.”

The newly established board will comprise influential voices, speakers and thought leaders, though Metaplanet did not share specifics.

Trump, son of President Donald Trump, has emerged as a key figure in recent months mainly after his ties to World Liberty Financial, a Trump family crypto venture launched in September 2024. He has since publicly endorsed bitcoin and ether (ETH) investing on X.

Metaplanet holds over 3,200 BTC as of Friday, after their latest reported purchase on March 18 when they acquired an additional 150 BTC for approximately 1.8 billion yen (around $12.5 million at the time).

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North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Holds More Bitcoin Than Elon Musk’s Tesla

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The Lazarus Group, a hacking group closely associated with North Korean, holds more bitcoin (BTC) than Tesla (TSLA), the electric car manufacturer led by Elon Musk, according to data from Arkham Intelligence.

At press time, Lazarus held 13,441 BTC worth $1.14 billion, according to data source Arkham Intelligence. That’s 16% more than Tesla’s bitcoin stash of 11,509 BTC.

Last month, Lazarus Group struck crypto exchange Bybit, draining $1.4 billion in ether (ETH) from the platform. Recently, some of the stolen funds have been converted into bitcoin, with 12,836 BTC distributed across 9,117 unique wallets, as Bybit’s CEO Ben Zhou confirmed.

Tesla acquired its bitcoin stash four years ago and has been HODLing ever since, making it the world’s fourth-largest publicly listed company in terms of BTC holdings.

The striking contrast between Tesla and Lazarus Group emerged even as President Donald Trump’s positive stance on cryptocurrency has sparked calls for accelerated BTC adoption among corporations and sovereign nations worldwide.

On Thursday, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to making the U.S. the «undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world.» Against this backdrop, it will be interesting to see if Tesla and other U.S. corporations respond to being overshadowed by a North Korean hacker.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government holds 198,109 BTC worth over $16 billion, representing coins seized in enforcement actions. Trump recently announced the same as the strategic reserve.

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