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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Meltdown Worsens as Macro Jitters Overshadow Positives

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It’s the dip that keeps on dipping. Bitcoin took another hit early Friday, falling below $80,000 and taking February’s decline to over 20%. That spurred a bloodbath in the broader crypto market, with ether sliding below $2,100, a level it managed to hold since August.

It’s not just crypto. Increased volatility in cryptocurrencies mirrors trends in traditional markets. Compare the 10% jump in the Volmex BVIV, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility in bitcoin, with the equal increase in the MOVE index, which measures the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury notes. The VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, has risen by 14%.

These movements, coupled with a sell-off in growth-sensitive commodity currencies like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, are indicative of jitters in the macroeconomy, primarily driven by renewed concerns over potential Trump tariffs, prompting a rotation towards less volatile assets.

«U.S. domestic policies have become unstable, and the White House seems happy to take advantage of this instability,» said Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin. «Given the challenges investors face in obtaining accurate forward-looking guidance, many are more inclined to hold low-volatility assets … Traders need to liquidate positions to reduce their exposure to specific assets before transitioning to other markets, which explains the decline across almost all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.»

Volatility looks set to remain heightened, with President Donald Trump reportedly scheduled to speak later on Friday. In the meantime, those hoping for a significant rebound in risk assets based on personal consumption data may be disappointed because anticipated soft readings could be overshadowed by tariff concerns and rising forward-looking inflation metrics.

While the outlook may seem gloomy, more positive developments could occur once the macro dust settles. Notably, this week there was progress on the regulatory front, with the SEC dropping charges against Uniswap, one of the leading decentralized exchanges, and mulling the same regarding its issues with Consensys.

As Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of leading market maker Wintermute, pointed out at Consensus Hong Kong last week, many are overlooking the evolving attitude of the SEC, and this is a factor the market has yet to fully price in.

Plus, the decline in the basis in the CME bitcoin and ether futures, a sign of weakening demand, has stalled and from a technical analysis perspective, bitcoin is fast closing toward a potential demand zone. So, stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 1: Spot trading on the Arkham Exchange goes live in 17 U.S. states.

March 5, 2:29 a.m.: Ethereum testnet Sepolia gets the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 222464.

March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.

March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.

Macro

Feb. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases January personal consumption and expenditure data.

Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%

Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%

PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%

Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%

Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.7%

March 2, 8:45 p.m.: Caixin and S&P Global release February China manufacturing data.

Manufacturing PMI Prev. 50.1

Earnings

March 6 (TBC): Bitfarms (BITF), $-0.04

March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $-0.05

March 18 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03

March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

Governances votes & calls

Sky DAO is discussing the reduction of the Smart Burn Engine activity, which would effectively reduce the rate of SKY token buybacks from around 1 million USDS to 400,000 USDS per day.

Lido DAO is discussing a proposal on an SSV Lido Module (SSVLM), a permissionless staking module, that would distribute staking rewards to node operators, the Lido Protocol and the module operations.

Feb. 28, 12 p.m.: VeChain (VET) to host a VeChain Builders AMA.

Unlocks

Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $5.58 million.

Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $12.45 million.

Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $60.40 million.

Mar. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 1.3% of circulating supply worth $15.91 million.

Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $12.35 million.

Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $73.80 million.

Mar. 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $21.4 million.

Token Listings

Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.

Feb. 28: Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) are being delisted from Bybit.

Feb. 28: Sonic SVM (SONIC) to be listed on AscendEX.

Feb. 28: RedStone (RED) to be listed on Binance and MEXC.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 6 of 8: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver)

March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest)

March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney)

March 10-11: MoneyLIVE Summit (London)

March 13-14: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25 (Netherlands)

March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Lazarus Group, the North Korea-backed hacker group, is laundering over $240 million in ether through THORChain, a decentralized cross-chain swap protocol, by converting it mainly to bitcoin.

THORChain enables cross-chain swaps without wrapped assets, maintaining user custody and securing funds on the blockchain.

Derivatives Positioning

TRX and TRON are seeing negative perpetual funding rates, or dominance of bearish, short positions, as the crypto sell-off deepens. Most other major coins still have positive funding rates.

On decentralized exchange Derive.xyz, ETH’s options skew for both the 7-day and 30-day options has sharply dropped to -15% and -6% respectively, representing a strong bias for protective puts.

The way bitcoin options on on Derive were priced at press time showed a 44% chance BTC settling below $80K by the end of June. and just 3.5% chance of prices rising to $150K, talk about the fear in the market.

On Deribit, BTC and ETH options showed a bias for puts in expiries up to the April end.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 3.3% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $80,552.45 (24hrs: -7.09%)

ETH is down 4.62% at $2,135.58 (24hrs: -9.3%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 4.63% at 2,821.02 (24hrs: -8.31%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at at 3.06%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0069% (7.55% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged 107.32

Gold is down 0.77% at $2,863.13/oz

Silver is down 1.09% at $31.15/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -2.88% at 37,155.50

Hang Seng closed -3.28% at 22,941.32

FTSE is up 0.25% at 8,778.39

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.49% at 5,445.93

DJIA closed on Thursday -0.45% at 43,239.50

S&P 500 closed -1.59% at 5,861.57

Nasdaq closed -2.78% at 18,544.42

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.79% at 25,128.24

S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.36% at 2,347.52

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.26%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.34% at 5896.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.3% at 20667.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.33% at 43,438.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 60.51 (-0.41%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02681 (-1.58%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 844 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $48.1

Total Fees: 8.38 BTC / $715,412

CME Futures Open Interest: 155,245 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.5 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.80%

Technical Analysis

Ether is at a make or break level of $2,100, which has seen seller exhaustion several times since August last year.

If the support gives way, it could trigger additional selling by long-term holders, leading to an extended slide.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $240.05 (-8.82%), down 1.99% at $235.28 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $208.37 (-2.16%), down 3.64% at $200.78

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.28 (+0.6%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.13 (+5.46%), down 3.43% at $12.68

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.66 (-3.13%), down 3.35% at $8.37

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.71 (+6.89%), down 2.24% at $10.47

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.51 (-4.7%), down 2.4% at $7.33

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.89 (-1.92%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40.63 (-7.47%), down 3.03% at $39.40

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.20 (-5.13%), up 0.52% at $42.42

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$275.9 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.85 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,132 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$71.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.86 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.702 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Daily trading volume on decentralized exchange Uniswap saw a small spike to $3.5 billion on Tuesday as the SEC dropped charges against the protocol.

Since then, however, volumes have tapered off, probably due to the wider market decline.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin Tumbles to $80K, XRP Loses Key Support as Trump Tariffs Regain Centrality, Dollar Index Rises (CoinDesk): President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports will take effect on March 4.

Bitcoin Sell-Off Could Be a Textbook ‘Breakout and Retest’ Play: Godbole (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s 15% drop below $80,000 may reflect typical market behavior, where traders test a former resistance level before potentially fueling another rally.

Trump’s Tariff Onslaught Is Coming Faster Than His Team Can Carry It Out (The Wall Street Journal): Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan, meant to align U.S. trade duties with those of other nations, is facing delays, with an April 2 report expected but full implementation likely months away.

China Vows ‘All Necessary Measures’ Against New US Tariffs (Bloomberg): China threatened retaliation after President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports would take effect March 4.

Sterling Outshines Rivals on Stronger Economic Data (Financial Times): The pound is benefiting from stronger-than-expected U.K. economic data, demand for government bonds, which offer higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, and a perceived lower risk of U.S. tariffs.

Mexico Sends Major Drug Capos to U.S. as Trump Tariff Threat Looms (Reuters): On Thursday, Mexico carried out its largest extradition in years, sending 29 cartel figures to the U.S. amid pressure over fentanyl smuggling.

In the Ether

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Trump’s Official Memecoin Surges Despite Massive $320 Million Unlock in Thin Holiday Trading

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TRUMP, the memecoin tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, gained more than 9% in the past 24 hours following a $320 million token unlock. The price now sits around $8.40, still down more than 88% from its peak above $71 on Jan. 18.

The recent unlock may spell further trouble for investors, who are estimated to have lost a total of $2 billion after purchasing the token earlier this year.

Token unlocks typically flood the market with new supply and tend to depress prices. But in this case, the market appears to have priced in the release beforehand, potentially explaining the price uptick. Still, the $320 million unlock raises the risk of a large sell-off, especially given TRUMP’s thin liquidity.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that just $1.3 million could move the token’s price by 2% on major exchanges. The move also comes during the Easter holiday weekend, when trading volumes are subdued and price swings can be more pronounced.

On social media, rumors are swirling about a possible event for large token holders, supposedly being organized by Trump himself. These claims remain unverified and highly speculative.

Data from Dune analytics shows there are currently 636,000 TRUMP token holders on-chain, with just 12,285 wallets having more than $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency.

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Slovenia Moves to Tax Crypto Profits at 25%

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Slovenia’s finance ministry has proposed a 25% tax on capital gains from cryptocurrency starting in 2026, under a draft law aimed at closing a gap in the country’s tax system.

The tax will apply to profit made when individuals sell crypto for fiat currency or spend it on goods and services. However, swapping one cryptocurrency for another will remain tax-free, and any gains made before January 1, 2026, will not be taxed, according to the finance ministry’s proposal.

The measure is meant to treat crypto gains more like other capital investments, such as stocks or bonds, which are already taxed.

Under the law, individuals would calculate their profit as the difference between the value at acquisition and at sale, adjusted for transaction fees. Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains. Taxpayers would need to file an annual return by March 31 and make payment within 15 days.

The tax could generate between €2.5 million and €25 million annually, according to preliminary government estimates. The country’s Ministry of Finance is soliciting public feedback on the proposal, which would come into effect next year.

The proposal comes as data from the European Central Bank’s ‘Survey on Consumer Payment Attitudes in the Euro Area’ shows Slovenia has the highest share of cryptocurrency owners in the euro area, with 15% of adults holding digital currencies last year, up from 8% in 2022.

Disclaimer: Information collected for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.

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Unpacking the DOJ’s Crypto Enforcement Memo

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Earlier this month, the Department of Justice disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and said it would no longer pursue what Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche described as «regulation by prosecution.»

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

‘Regulation by prosecution’

The narrative

The U.S. Department of Justice «will no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets» in lieu of regulatory agencies putting together their own frameworks for overseeing the sector, a 4-page memo signed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche on April 7 said. In other words, the DOJ will no longer pursue «regulation by prosecution,» the memo said.

Why it matters

The DOJ’s memo raised concerns that it may mean criminal activities in the crypto sector would not be prosecuted, or at least prosecuted as heavily as it was under the past several years — both by disbanding the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) and by shifting the entity’s priorities.

Breaking it down

At a practical level, the memo itself is internal guidance but may not be a binding document. Multiple attorneys told CoinDesk they interpreted the guidance to indicate that the DOJ would still bring fraud or other criminal cases involving crypto, but would try to avoid any cases where the DOJ itself had to determine if a digital asset was a security or a commodity.

«Fraud is still fraud,» said Josh Naftalis, a partner at Pallas Partners LLP and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York. «This memo does not seem to say the DOJ is not going to prosecute fraud in the crypto space.»

Still, the memo raised alarms for prominent Democrats who questioned whether the DOJ was suggesting it would let criminal conduct occur. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, Richard Durbin, Sheldon Whitehouse, Christopher Coons and Richard Blumenthal wrote a letter to Blanche, saying his «decision to give a free pass to cryptocurrency money launderers» and shut down the NCET were «grave mistakes that will support sanctions evasion, drug trafficking, scams and child sexual exploitation.»

«Specifically, the Department will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services and offline wallets for the acts of their end users or unwitting violations of regulations — except to the extent the investigation is consistent with the priorities articulated in the following paragraphs,» the DOJ memo said, a passage the Senators’ letter referenced.

New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote an open letter to Senate leaders in the same week asking them to advance legislation to address cryptocurrency risks. She did not specifically reference Blanche’s memo but detailed possible ways to better police the sector through legislation.

Katherine Reilly, a partner at Pryor Cashman and a former prosecutor with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, told CoinDesk that most of the major crypto cases brought by the DOJ in recent years would not have been affected had this guidance been in effect.

The BitMEX case in 2020, when the DOJ and Commodity Futures Trading Commission brought unregistered trading and other charges against the platform, is «probably closest to the line» of being a case that may not have been brought under this guidance, she said.

Trump pardoned BitMEX, its founders and a senior employee in late March, barely two weeks before the DOJ memo was shared.

«I think that it’s clear that the Justice Department wants to limit the DOJ’s role in regulating the crypto industry … looking beyond its role in other crimes, fraud, laundering proceeds from narcotics trafficking, things like that, and sort of take a step back from the role of trying to bring order and fairness to the crypto industry as a whole,» Reilly said.

That’s «probably the intent behind the BitMEX pardons too,» she said.

Naftalis said the DOJ will continue to pursue drug, terrorism or other illicit financing charges even under the memo.

«I think that the headline for the industry is to the extent that there are legal uses of crypto, they’re not going to set the guard rail by criminal enforcement,» he said. «That’s for Congress.»

One section of the memo tells prosecutors not to charge Bank Secrecy Act violations, unregistered securities offering violations, unregistered broker-dealer violations or other Commodity Exchange Act registration violations «unless there is evidence that the defendant knew of the licensing or registration requirement at issue and violated such a requirement willfully.»

Carla Reyes, an Associate Professor of Law at SMU Dedman School of Law, told CoinDesk that this may be referencing recent cases where developers build tools under the impression that they were not committing unlicensed money transmitting activities under existing guidance but may get charged anyway.

«Most criminal statutes require some level of knowledge to define your intention, and knowledge that you’re committing a crime when you do it,» she said. «The further away you get from that, the lesser the charge, but the more willful [and] intentional it is, the higher the charge.»

What the memo seems to want to explicitly move away from is any suggestion that federal prosecutors would interpret how securities or commodities laws might apply to digital assets.

«Prosecutors should not charge violations of the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Commodity Exchange Act, or the regulations promulgated pursuant to these Acts, in cases where (a) the charge would require the Justice Department to litigate whether a digital asset is a ‘security’ or ‘commodity,’ and (b) there is an adequate alternative criminal charge available, such as mail or wire fraud,» the memo said.

A popular critique leveled against former SEC Chair Gary Gensler by the crypto industry was that he was «regulating by enforcement,» rather than focusing on developing guidance for the industry to know what was or wasn’t acceptable. Blanche seems to be referring to a similar critique in the memo, Naftalis said, in that one-off enforcement decisions by the SEC or DOJ should not define the guardrails for the industry.

Steve Segal, a shareholder at Buchalter, said that some of the DOJ’s past cases would charge trading venues for failing to police their own customers. The memo now seems to suggest that if a crypto exchange’s executives were running a clean platform, and customers were laundering funds derived from criminal activities, the executives would not be charged. This is in contrast with, for example, FTX, where the executives were charged and convicted of (or pled guilty to) fraud charges.

«Of course, a lot of the big crypto cases we’ve seen over the last few years are sort of pure investor fraud, things like FTX. And one of the more interesting things about this memo is it talks about crypto investors and really prioritizing cases where crypto investors are being victimized,» Reilly said. «And so I don’t think we should conclude that this memo means we’re going to see a lot fewer cases in the crypto space, or that crypto companies can sort of breathe a sigh of relief that the DOJ is out of the picture for a few years.»

The DOJ’s future cases may appear a bit different in terms of the specific allegations made, but «it’s much too soon to say that everybody can assume the DOJ is out of the crypto business,» she said.

Many of the attorneys speaking to CoinDesk agreed that the memo itself did not clarify all of the different issues that may come up with a criminal case, nor was it an end-all/be-all document.

The memo announced prosecutorial discretion but it isn’t itself a law, Reyes said, adding that it may guide internal decision-making about which cases to pursue the most heavily, as well as the strategies that guide those prosecutions.

A lot of details about how this memo ties together with Trump’s executive order on the strategic bitcoin reserve still need to be spelled out, Segal said. Sections on victim compensation and how seized funds should be handled in the memo do not explain how the DOJ might handle situations where seized funds are turned over to bankruptcy estates, such as what happened with FTX or other similar scenarios.

«I think we’ll really have to see how it plays out, because this guidance, I do think, leaves prosecutors a lot of room to bring cases even of these kinds of violations that are being cast as more regulatory,» Reilly said. «So even if that’s the intent, I think the devil is in the details on what cases we see going forward.»

Stories you may have missed

This week

soc 041525

Monday

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission and Binance were set to file a joint status report on their discussions after a judge paused the regulator’s case against the exchange and its affiliated entities and executives in February. Last Friday, the parties asked for an extension of this deadline, and the judge overseeing the case signed off on Monday, giving the parties until mid-June to file a follow-up.

Elsewhere:

  • (The Wall Street Journal) Binance executives met with U.S. Treasury Department officials in March about potentially «loosening U.S. government oversight» of the exchange following Binance’s November 2023 guilty plea, the Journal reported. Binance agreed to a court-appointed monitor as part of the plea. At the same time as last month’s discussions, Binance was in talks with the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial to develop a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
  • (Fortune) Fortune spoke to and profiled Bo Hines, the executive director of U.S. President Donald Trump’s digital assets advisory council.
  • (CNBC) U.S. importers are seeing more «canceled sailings» due to a drop in demand as a result of tariffs, CNBC reports.
  • (The Verge) ICERAID claims to be a protocol on Solana where people can crowdsource images of «criminal illegal alien activity» in exchange for tokens, but it does not appear to have any connection to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), The Verge reports.
  • (NPR) The Department of Homeland Security is revoking parole for a number of migrants, telling them to self-deport from the U.S. U.S. citizens, born within the U.S., are also receiving these emails.
  • (The New York Times) Acting IRS Commissioner Gary Shapley has been replaced after just three days on the job, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly complained to President Donald Trump that he was not consulted on Shapley’s promotion, which was pushed by Elon Musk.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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