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Bitcoin Sell-Off Could Be a Textbook ‘Breakout and Retest’ Play: Godbole

Remember the last time you went on vacation? After locking the door and heading toward your car, you likely turned back abruptly to ensure the lock was secure before continuing your journey.
Financial markets, led by a range of human emotions, exhibit similar behaviors. After a convincing move beyond a long-held resistance, assets typically return to confirm the validity of the breakout. That serves as a test of the strength of the former resistance-turned-support, following which bigger rallies unfold.
The «breakout and retest play» phenomenon is well-known across asset classes. Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing sell-off might be just that – a healthy retest of the breakout point or the former resistance-turned-support of $73,835 breached in November.
In other words, the downward momentum could run out of steam at or closer to these levels, potentially setting the stage for a bigger run higher.
BTC has dropped over 15% to under $80,000 this month, exposing the former resistance-turned-support at $73,835. Prices broke above that level in early November, ending months-long consolidation after pro-crypto Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election.
The tendency of markets to retrace or revisit the breakout point before staging more enormous rallies has its roots in the behavioral aspects of investing.
People are generally risk averse when it comes to securing gains. So, when facing profits, traders quickly book those instead of allowing the winning trade to run wild. The so-called prospect theory explains why post-breakout rallies abruptly run out of steam, often leading to a retest of the breakout point. BTC holders have been taking profits around the $100K mark since December.
Now, as prices turn lower and near the breakout point, in this case, $73,835, market participants who missed the initial rally jump in, ensuring the level holds. The resulting bounce from the former resistance-turned-support draws in more and more buyers, potentially yielding a bigger rally.
That’s precisely what happened in the third quarter of 2023 and August-September 2020.
On both occasions, the breakout and retest produced bigger rallies to new record highs. Traders, however, need to note that a failed retest or a lack of a meaningful bounce indicates underlying weakness that can evolve into a full blown downtrend.
Over the years, I have seen numerous examples of retests of breakouts/breakdowns leading to bigger moves in traditional markets.
Consider the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond. It triggered a double-bottom breakout in January 2024 and revisited the breakout level multiple times before rising to multi-year highs.
The AUD/USD pair dived out of a major support trendline in December, hinting at a deeper slide. The pair bounced to the trendline resistance early this month only to see sharp losses this week.
Business
Strategy Bought $27M in Bitcoin at $123K Before Crypto Crash

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin (BTC), appeared to miss out on capitalizing on last week’s market rout to purchase the dip in prices.
According to Monday’s press release, the firm bought 220 BTC at an average price of $123,561. The company used the proceeds of selling its various preferred stocks (STRF, STRK, STRD), raising $27.3 million.
That purchase price was well above the prices the largest crypto changed hands in the second half of the week. Bitcoin nosedived from above $123,000 on Thursday to as low as $103,000 on late Friday during one, if not the worst crypto flash crash on record, liquidating over $19 billion in leveraged positions.
That move occurred as Trump said to impose a 100% increase in tariffs against Chinese goods as a retaliation for tightening rare earth metal exports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the two world powers.
At its lowest point on Friday, BTC traded nearly 16% lower than the average of Strategy’s recent purchase price. Even during the swift rebound over the weekend, the firm could have bought tokens between $110,000 and $115,000, at a 7%-10% discount compared to what it paid for.
With the latest purchase, the firm brought its total holdings to 640,250 BTC, at an average acquisition price of $73,000 since starting its bitcoin treasury plan in 2020.
MSTR, the firm’s common stock, was up 2.5% on Monday.
Business
HBAR Rises Past Key Resistance After Explosive Decline

HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) experienced pronounced volatility in the final hour of trading on Oct. 13, soaring from $0.187 to a peak of $0.191—a 2.14% intraday gain—before consolidating around $0.190.
The move was driven by a dramatic surge in trading activity, with a standout 15.65 million tokens exchanged at 13:31, signaling strong institutional participation. This decisive volume breakout propelled the asset beyond its prior resistance range of $0.190–$0.191, establishing a new technical footing amid bullish momentum.
The surge capped a broader 23-hour rally from Oct. 12 to 13, during which HBAR advanced roughly 9% within a $0.17–$0.19 bandwidth. This sustained upward trajectory was characterized by consistent volume inflows and a firm recovery from earlier lows near $0.17, underscoring robust market conviction. The asset’s ability to preserve support above $0.18 throughout the period reinforced confidence among traders eyeing continued bullish action.
Strong institutional engagement was evident as consecutive high-volume intervals extended through the breakout window, suggesting renewed accumulation and positioning for potential continuation. HBAR’s price structure now shows resilient support around $0.189–$0.190, signaling the possibility of further upside if momentum persists and broader market conditions remain favorable.
Technical Indicators Highlight Bullish Sentiment
- HBAR operated within a $0.017 bandwidth (9%) spanning $0.174 and $0.191 throughout the previous 23-hour period from 12 October 15:00 to 13 October 14:00.
- Substantial volume surges reaching 179.54 million and 182.77 million during 11:00 and 13:00 sessions on 13 October validated positive market sentiment.
- Critical resistance materialized at $0.190-$0.191 thresholds where price movements encountered persistent selling activity.
- The $0.183-$0.184 territory established dependable support through volume-supported bounces.
- Extraordinary volume explosion at 13:31 registering 15.65 million units signaled decisive breakout event.
- High-volume intervals surpassing 10 million units through 13:35 substantiated significant institutional engagement.
- Asset preserved support above $0.189 despite moderate profit-taking activity.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Business
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin and Altcoins Recover After $500B Crash

The crypto market staged a recovery on Monday following the weekend’s $500 billion bloodbath that resulted in a $10 billion drop in open interest.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.4% while ether (ETH) outperformed with a 2.5% gain. Synthetix (SNX, meanwhile, stole the show with a 120% rally as traders anticipate «perpetual wars» between the decentralized trading venue and HyperLiquid.
Plasma (XPL) and aster (ASTER) both failed to benefit from Monday’s recovery, losing 4.2% and 2.5% respectively.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance’s rate is negative.
- The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
- These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent «cautious neutrality.»
- Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
- A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
- The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
- The big winner of Monday’s recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 120% ahead of a crypto trading competition that will see it potentially start up «perpetual wars» with HyperLiquid.
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