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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Traders Deleverage on Steady Fed Rate Outlook
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Crypto traders are deleveraging after Wednesday’s FOMC minutes showed the Fed is looking to hold rates steady until inflation improves and discussed pausing or slowing the balance sheet runoff.
Still, the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped and the dollar weakened. Cryptocurrencies are higher, with the CoinDesk 20 Index up 1.4% and bitcoin 1.2% over 24 hours. The gains follow remarks by Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl, who reiterated the case for bitcoin as a reserve asset, and President Donald Trump saying he’d ended “Joe Biden’s war on Bitcoin and crypto.”
Bitcoin traders are taking a wait-and-see approach as waning demand, a lack of blockchain activity and faltering liquidity inflows point to potential pullback to $86,000. It’s currently over $97,000. Their stance is visible not only in declining volatility, but also a significant drop in open interest.
Open interest on bitcoin futures contracts has fallen below $60 billion from nearly $70 billion in late January, Coinglass data shows. The decline comes amid what appears to be an unraveling of the memecoin craze as recent struggles, such as Argentina’s Libra debacle, dampened enthusiasm.
“Right now, the market is in a bit of a cooldown phase,” David Gogel, VP of strategy and operations at the dYdX Foundation, told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin’s been holding up, but after failing to break past $105k in January, we’ve seen capital inflows slow down and speculative assets like Solana and memecoins take a hit.”
That hit is visible in the aggregate open interest for futures contracts for SOL, the Solana blockchain’s native token. OI dropped from around $6 billion late last month to around $4.3 billion now, according to data from TheTie. Solana is one of the leading networks for memecoins.
“The market should stay attuned to broader macro-drivers and geopolitical developments that could trigger moves,” Wintermute OTC trader Jake O told CoinDesk. These geopolitical developments include rising tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to a not-so-subtle public exchange.
Declining leverage and a shift away from riskier plays suggest the market may be entering a new phase. What that actually entails remains to be seen. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 21: TON (The Open Network) becomes the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for messaging platform Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem.
Feb. 24: At epoch 115968, testing of Ethereum’s Pecta upgrade on the Holesky testnet starts.
Feb. 25, 9:00 a.m.: Ethereum Foundation research team Reddit AMA.
Feb. 27: Solana-based L2 Sonic SVM (SONIC) mainnet launch (“Mobius”).
Macro
Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada reports January’s producer price inflation data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.2%
PPI YoY Prev. 4.1%
Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report for the week ended Feb. 15.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 213K
Feb. 20, 5:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech titled «Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve» in Washington. Livestream link.
Feb. 20, 6:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reports January’s consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3%
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.6%
Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.6%
Feb. 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases February’s U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (Flash) reports.
Composite PMI Prev. 52.7
Manufacturing PMI Est. 51.5 vs. Prev. 51.2
Services PMI Est. 53 vs Prev. 52.9
Earnings
Feb. 20: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.88
Feb. 24: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.18
Feb. 25: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, $-0.17
Feb. 25: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.09
Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Sky DAO is discussing withdrawing a portion of the Smart Burn Engine’s LP tokens to stop malicious actors from acquiring the tokens.
DYdX DAO is discussing increasing the limit on the maximum notional value of liquidations that can occur within a given block on the dYdX protocol to enhance the protocol’s speed and efficiency of risk reduction during liquidations.
Unlocks
Feb. 21: Fast Token (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of circulating supply worth $78.6 million.
Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.92% of circulating supply worth $34.23 million.
Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $81.07 million.
Token Launches
Feb. 20: Pi Network (PI) to be listed on MEXC, OKX, Bitget, Gate.io, CoinW, DigiFinex and others.
Conferences:
CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Hong Kong on Feb. 18-20 and in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 3 of 3: Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver)
Feb. 24: RWA London Summit 2025
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
March 2-3: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)
March 8: Bitcoin Alive (Sydney, Australia)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
PI, the native token of the Pi Network, debuted at $1.70 and immediately rose to $2.00 before losing 50% of its value in the next two hours.
The network claims to have 60 million users. There are fewer than 1 million active wallets.
Based on a self-reported circulating supply figure of 6.3 billion, PI currently has a market cap of $7.8 billion.
The premise behind Pi Network is a blockchain that allows users to mine tokens on their smartphones. It captured a considerable amount of attention from retail traders and has drawn comparison to viral tokens from previous cycles like SafeMoon.
Token holders face the risk of a lack of liquidity. The token’s most liquid exchange is OKX, but 2% market depth — the amount of capital required to move the price by 2% in either direction — is between $33K and $60K. This means an order of say $100K would shift the market considerably to present volatile trading conditions.
Derivatives Positioning
BTC volatility on derivatives has reached a monthly low, declining from an annualized 36.09% to 28.43%.
That contrasts with ETH, which has seen its annualized volatility rise from 49.43% to 74.72%, according to data published by Deribit.
Roughly $1.5 billion worth of BTC and ETH options are set to expire tomorrow, with almost $5 billion expiring in a week’s time.
The total open interest across all trading pairs on retail centralized exchanges has risen by 2.10% on the day to $80.8 billion.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.10% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $97,300.67 (24hrs: +1.09%)
ETH is up 0.60% at $2,738.90 (24hrs: +0.51%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.72% to 3,250.68 (24hrs: +1.67%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps to 2.99%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0037% (4.0920% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.18% at 106.98
Gold is up 0.60% at $2,950,84/oz
Silver is up 1.52% to $33.19/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.24% at 38,678.04
Hang Seng closed -1.60% at 22,576.98
FTSE is down 0.24% at 8,690.90
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.62% at 5,494.99
DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.16% at 44,627.59
S&P 500 closed +0.24% at 6,144.15
Nasdaq closed +0.07% at 20,056.25
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,626.16
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.35% at 2,463.68
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate was down 1 bps at 4.53%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to 6,150.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.22% at 22,200.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.15% to 44,643
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.10 (0.04%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02819 (0.28%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 831 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.24
Total Fees: 5.127 BTC / $499,118
CME Futures Open Interest: 172,360 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.32%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has rebounded from the yearly open at $93,385, reclaiming the 100-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe.
Over the last three deep sell-offs, the price has formed higher lows, indicating strong buyer interest at the current range lows.
However, the short-term 20-day and 50-day EMAs on the daily timeframe recently crossed for the first time since August 5th, signalling a need for caution in the near term.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $318.67 (-4.58%), up 2.01% at $325.08 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.67 (-2.25%), up 1.76% at $263.22
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$25.32 (-3.76%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.78 (-1.68%), up 1.33% at $15.99.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.56 (unchanged), up 1.04% at $11.68
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.02 (-2.99%), up 1.41% at $12.19
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.89 (-1.88%), up 1.81% at $10.07
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.78 (-0.26%), unchanged
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $52.22 (+2.96%), up 0.06% at $52.25
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.41 (+4.00%), unchanged
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$64.1 million
Cumulative net flows: $40.00 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.170 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $19 million
Cumulative net flows: $3.18 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.795 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Month-to-date data for top bridged netflows by network highlights a strong capital inflow into the Base network since the start of the month.
The layer-2 blockchain had a net inflow of $314 million, more than twice the amount of the second-placed Arbitrum, which has seen an inflow of $115 million.
Inflows to Solana slowed amid liquidity drains caused by multiple high-profile celebrity memecoin launches over the past month.
While You Were Sleeping
LIBRA Memecoin Fiasco Destroyed $251M in Investor Wealth, Research Shows (CoinDesk): Nansen’s on-chain analysts say 86% of people who traded the LIBRA token lost money, with the total loss of $251 million. The winners enjoyed a total profit of $180 million.
HK to Expand, Open Up Virtual Assets Market (The Standard): At Consensus Hong Kong, SFC CEO Julia Leung announced ASPIRe — a 12-point roadmap to correct market imbalances with improved licensing, custody, token frameworks, derivatives trading and margin lending for professional investors.
MANTRA Launches Program for Real-World Asset Startups With Google Cloud Support (CoinDesk): Layer-1 blockchain MANTRA’s RWAccelerator backs startups working on tokenizing real-world assets by providing mentorship, with technical support and cloud credits coming from Google.
China Is Likely to Cut Its Benchmark Policy Rate Next Month (CNBC): China’s central bank held its key lending rates steady on Thursday, prompting expectations of a policy easing in March.
Bank of England’s Gold-Diggers Grapple With Trump-Fueled Frenzy (Bloomberg): Speculation over impending U.S. tariffs has forced a small BoE team to extract 12.5 kg gold bars as traders exploit gaps between London spot and U.S. futures prices.
‘Stagflation’ Fears Haunt U.S. Markets Despite Trump’s Pro-Growth Agenda (Reuters): While investors have largely remained bullish on U.S. stocks, some worry that the president’s new tariff measures might drive up prices and stifle economic growth.
In the Ether
Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.
Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.
Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.
Technical Indicators
- XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
- Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
- Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
- Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
- Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
- Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
- Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.
Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.
Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.
The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.
Technical Indicators Summary
- Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
- Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
- The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
- Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
- Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) built around a meme coin could hit the market this week, after multiple delays and much speculation.
The DOGE ETF — formally called the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) — was originally slated to debut last week, alongside a handful of politically themed and crypto-related ETFs. Those included funds tied to Bonk (BONK), XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and even a Trump-themed fund. But DOJE’s debut never materialized.
Now, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe Wednesday is the most likely launch date, though they caution nothing is certain.
“It’s more likely than not,” Seyffart said. “That seems like the base case.”
Ahead of the introduction of the ETF, DOGE has been among the top performers over the past month, ahead 15% even including a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 horus.
If launched, DOJE would mark a milestone as the first U.S. ETF to focus on a meme coin — cryptocurrencies that generally lack utility or a clear economic purpose. These include tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bonk, which often surge in popularity thanks to internet culture, celebrity endorsements and speculative trading.
Balchunas described DOJE’s significance in a post on X: “First-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose.”
DOJE is not a spot ETF. That means it won’t hold DOGE directly. Instead, the fund will use a Cayman Islands-based subsidiary to gain exposure through futures and other derivatives. This approach sidesteps the need for physical custody of the coin while still offering traders a way to bet on its performance within a traditional brokerage account.
The ETF was approved earlier this month under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which is typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs. That sets it apart from the wave of bitcoin ETFs that received green lights under the Securities Act of 1933, a framework used for commodity-based and asset-backed products. In short, DOJE is structured more like a mutual fund than a commodity trust.
More direct exposure may be coming soon. Several firms have filed applications to launch spot DOGE ETFs, which would hold the meme coin itself rather than derivatives. These applications are still under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has grown more comfortable with crypto ETFs since approving a slate of bitcoin products in early 2024.
The broader crypto market has shown that investor demand can outweigh fundamental critiques. Meme coins have long drawn skepticism for having no underlying value or use case, but that hasn’t kept them from drawing billions in speculative capital.
Seyffart said the ETF market is likely to follow the same path. “There’s going to be a bunch of products like this, whether you love it or need it, they’re going to be coming to market,” he said.
He added that many existing financial products serve no deeper purpose than providing a vehicle for short-term bets. “There’s plenty of products out there that are just being used as gambling or short-term trading,” he said. “So if there’s an audience for this in the crypto world, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this finds an audience in the ETF and TradFi world.”
Whether the DOJE ETF opens the door to more meme coin funds — or just proves the concept is viable — may depend on how the market responds this week. Either way, it signals a new phase in the merging of internet culture and traditional finance.
XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price
HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff
Dogecoin Inches Closer to Wall Street With First Meme Coin ETF
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