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The Opportunity in High Yield Crypto-Backed Loans
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Despite all of the positive news about digital assets coming from the new administration, the crypto ecosystem still isn’t fully integrated with the U.S. banking system. Even with the removal of “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” restrictions, institutions and individuals aren’t able to access the money markets with the level of efficiency that traditional Main Street, let alone Wall Street, is able to.
This has created an opportunity for many crypto native-entities to take advantage of what they do have — good collateral — and to use that collateral to borrow U.S. dollars (USD). The result is an asset-backed loan that has the potential to yield more than it “should.”
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With junk bond spreads less than 300 basis points (bps) above U.S. Treasuries, BTC-backed loans may offer more yield than junk bonds with less risk than investment-grade bonds. Using current market conditions and a standard credit default modeling technique, BlockFills estimates a fair value of 150-200 bps over USTs for BTC backed loans, yet they currently trade at 400-600 bps over USTs.
Overcollateralized BTC-backed loans may present a great opportunity for traditional finance institutions participating in crypto at scale, in a fashion that is reminiscent of prior innovations like mortgages and junk bonds. These transactions can be structured in a Tri-Party arrangement, which is when two parties engage a third party as a trusted custodian for funds held in escrow. This removes the need to custody crypto, handle margin calls and deal with selling the collateral under default conditions.
Crypto market participants and businesses simply do not have full access to the USD banking system. These BTC-backed loans are a possible solution to fill the gap. The collateral is good, tradable and liquid in both on- and offshore markets. This compares favorably with default conditions in corporate loans where bankruptcy proceedings can last for years (or decades).
A portfolio of such loans does not represent diversification since all these loans would be backed by cryptocurrency. However, that does mean that a portfolio may be hedged using the options* market, which has also become liquid in both listed and OTC markets for BTC.
The BTC-backed loan market is an opportunity that bridges crypto and traditional finance. It’s not meant to provide the sort of “degen” returns that may be available in outright positions but instead speaks to the sorts of investment parameters that come with vocabulary recognizable to the Patagonia vest-wearing crowd. Terms like “excess risk-adjusted return” and “harvesting premiums” are reminiscent of the 80s and 90s.
Written by Ari Pine, Co-Head of Exotic Derivatives* Products at BlockFills, a trading and market technology firm.
The levels cited above are indicative, only serving as general guidance or potential scenarios based on certain market conditions. They don’t account for future market movements, execution risks or other dynamic factors. Always remember to assess the information, conduct your own analysis and make decisions that align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
*Derivative Products available to Qualified Counterparties Only. For US Persons, client is an Eligible Contract Participant (“ECP”) as defined in Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act and related guidance. Non-US Persons must qualify as an Eligible Professional Client. BlockFills only provides services to customers resident in the UK who fall within an exemption available under the UK financial promotion regime (Investment professionals, High net worth individuals, High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. Certified sophisticated investors).
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Bybit CEO Labels Pi Network a Scam, Citing Official Police Warning
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Bybit CEO Ben Zhou said Thursday that his exchange will not list the Pi Network’s PI token, which was controversially released on Thursday, citing a Chinese police warning from 2023 that alleged the project was a scam targeting elderly people, leaking their personal information and leading to the loss of their pensions.
«There are multiple other reports out there questioning the project legitimacy,» Zhou posted on X. «Yes, I still think you are a scam, and no, Bybit will not list scam.»
The Pi Network didn’t respond to CoinDesk’s request for comments.
The token went live alongside the project’s mainnet release on Thursday. Users who «mined» tokens by clicking their smartphone screens once a day were finally able to transfer and sell tokens.
Zhou, however, found himself in the middle of a separate issue on Friday, with his exchange Bybit, which was hacked by North Korea’s Lazarus Group for $1.5 billion.
The PI token debuted on OKX at $0.67, rose as high as $2 and then slumped 65% and is currently around $0.69.
One issue that raised concerns was a marketing tactic that rewarded users who recruited other users. Each time a user persuaded someone else to sign up using their code, the first person’s «mining» rewards were increased. The idea had some drawing comparisons to the 2017 Ponzi scheme, Bitconnect.
«Pi Network is the biggest ponzi [scheme],» X user CryptoBeast alleged, posting to their 656K followers.
The project also offers users the option of locking their tokens for as long as three years. In return, they are promised increased rewards. The same technique was at the heart of the Hex project, whose founder, Richard Schueler, known online as Richard Heart, is a fugitive sought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for, among other things, defrauding his investors.
The token has a market cap of $4.18 billion based on a circulating supply of $6.33 billion. However, its inflationary nature means the maximum supply is 100 billion, giving a fully diluted value (FDV) at a staggering $67 billion, assuming it holds the current price. At launch, FDV rose as high as $200 billion, almost double that of Solana.
Some exchanges have been undeterred by the concerns raised. OKX, Bitget and Gate have racked up a total of $620 million in trading volume for PI trading pairs between them, according to CoinMarketCap.
Read more: Pi Network’s Token Debuts at $195B Value Despite Minimal Liquidity
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North Korean Hackers Were Behind Crypto’s Largest ‘Theft of All Time’
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Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence said North Korea’s Lazarus Group was behind Bybit’s $1.46 billion hack.
In an earlier post on social media platform X, Arkham offered a bounty of 50,000 ARKM tokens for anyone who could identify the attackers for Friday’s hack. Later, the platform said onchain sleuth ZachXBT submitted «definitive proof» that the attackers were the North Korean hacker group.
«His submission included a detailed analysis of test transactions and connected wallets used ahead of the exploit, as well as multiple forensics graphs and timing analyses,» the post said.
Read more: Bybit Loses $1.5B in Hack but Can Cover Loss, CEO Confirms
The hack that rocked the crypto market and saw most prices tumbling was called the «largest crypto theft of all time, by some margin,» by Elliptic’s Tom Robinson, co-founder and chief scientist. «The next largest crypto theft would be the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021. In fact it may even be the largest single theft of all time.»
Blockchain data provider Nansen told CoinDesk that the attackers first withdrew nearly $1.5 billion worth of funds from the exchange into a main wallet and then spread the funds across several others.
«Initially, the stolen funds were transferred to a primary wallet, which then distributed them across more than 40 wallets,» Nansen said. «The attackers converted all stETH, cmETH, and mETH to ETH before systematically transferring ETH in $27 million increments to over 10 additional wallets,» Nansen said.
The attack appeared to have been caused by something called «Blind Signing,» where a smart contract transaction is approved without the comprehensive knowledge of its contents.
«This attack vector is quickly becoming the favorite form of cyber attack used by advanced threat actors, including North Korea,» said blockchain security firm Blockaid’s CEO Ido Ben Natan. «It’s the same type of attack that was used in the Radiant Capital breach and the WazirX incident.»
«The problem is that even with the best key management solutions, today most of the signing process is delegated to software interfaces that interact with dApps. This creates a critical vulnerability — it opens the door for malicious manipulation of the signing process, which is exactly what happened in this attack,» he said.
Bybit CEO Ben Zhou wrote earlier on X that a hacker «took control of the specific ETH cold wallet and transferred all the ETH in the cold wallet to this unidentified address.» He also confirmed that the exchange «is solvent even if this hack loss is not recovered.»
Oliver Knight contributed to the reporting of this story
Read more: Bitcoin, Ether Slump as Crypto Prices Dip on Report of Massive $1.5B Bybit Hack
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Plunging U.S. Stocks Help Add to Crypto’s Bad Day
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Only a handful of hours ago crypto markets were buoyed as the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled its intent its dismiss a lawsuit against Coinbase (COIN).
The welcome regulatory news sparked 5% gains for COIN and the likes of increasingly important crypto trading platform Robinhood (HOOD), and sent bitcoin (BTC) breaking out of its recent tight trading range to within sight of the $100,000 level.
The first bomb to break the good vibes came late in the U.S. morning when Bybit was stung by about a $1.5 billion hack — the largest such exploit ever in crypto. That news sent bitcoin and ether (ETH) sliding roughly 2% in a manner of minutes.
Prices quickly seemed to stabilize and — at least in the case for bitcoin — bounce a bit.
Et tu stocks?
Any sort of bounce, however, was quickly snuffed out as modest losses for U.S. stocks began to accelerate in afternoon trading.
Among the excuses for the quick retreat was a poor reading from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which unexpectedly slipped to 64.7 versus forecasts for 67.8. The same survey’s inflation expectations rose to 3.5% against an expected 3.3%.
An outlier, but perhaps also a reason for selling, was a new coronavirus scare out of China. Discovered by researchers at the Wuhan Institute, HKU5-CoV-2 is «strikingly similar» to the virus that caused the 2020 pandemic, according to the Daily Mail.
Shortly before the close of trading on Friday, the Nasdaq is lower by 2.2% and the S&P 500 by 1.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen nine basis points to 4.42%.
As for crypto, bitcoin has more than erased its gains of the past couple of days, trading back to $95,000 and lower by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) has pulled back to $2,650, also lower by about 4%. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 4.4%.
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