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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Eyes PPI for Post-CPI Guidance on Fed
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
After Wednesday’s unexpectedly high consumer price inflation (CPI) figures, all eyes now turn to the produce price report due at 8:30 a.m.
Analysts expect year-over-year PPI to come in at 3.2%, below December’s 3.3%, with a month-on-month reading of 0.3%, up from 0.2%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show underlying inflationary pressure, accelerating to 0.3% from 0% in December. From January last year, it’s seen easing to 3.3%.
Hotter-than-expected data could signal monetary policy remains too loose, potentially delaying or even eliminating Fed rate cuts this year, against President Trump’s wishes. A more restrictive Fed is likely to be bearish for risk assets. On the other hand, softer inflation data could weaken the dollar and lower treasury yields while helping boost risk-assets.
Following the CPI data markets were volatile.
Treasury yields surged to 4.6% before retreating slightly. The Dollar Index (DXY) mirrored this movement, spiking to 108.5 before pulling back below 108.
Despite the initial sell-off, major asset classes rebounded, with bitcoin (BTC), U.S. equities and gold finishing the session in the green.
Also on the agenda, Coinbase (COIN) reports fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes. Following Robinhood’s strong results, expectations are high, and a positive report could provide a boost to the cryptocurrency market. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 13: Start of Kraken’s gradual delisting of the USDT, PYUSD, EURT, TUSD, UST stablecoins for EEA clients. The process ends March. 31.
Feb. 13: Story (IP) mainnet launch.
Feb. 14: Dynamic TAO (DTAO) network upgrade goes live on the Bittensor (TAO) mainnet.
Feb. 14, 2:30 a.m.: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade.
Feb. 18, 10:00 a.m.: FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamas-based subsidiary of FTX, starts reimbursing creditors.
Feb. 21: TON (The Open Network) becomes the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for messaging platform Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem.
Macro
Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0%
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
PPI YoY Prev. 3.3%
Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report for the week ended Feb. 8.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 219K
Feb. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases January’s Retail Sales data.
Retail Sales MoM Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%
Retail Sales YoY Prev. 3.9%
Earnings
Feb. 13: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.11
Feb. 14: Remixpoint (3825)
Feb. 18: CoinShares International (CS), pre-market
Feb. 18: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
Feb. 20: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.88
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Curve DAO is voting on increasing 3pool’s amplification coefficient to 8,000 over 30 days and raise admin fees to 100%. To optimize liquidity, as part of an experiment, 3pool will have higher fees while Strategic Reserves will offer lower fees.
Aave DAO is discussing using GHO as a gas token across various networks. The framework proposes using the canonical network bridge to mint GHO directly as a gas token.
Unlocks
Feb. 14: The Sandbox (SAND) to unlock 8.4% of circulating supply worth $80.5 million.
Feb. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.13% of circulating supply worth $45.1 million.
Feb. 16: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.4% of circulating supply worth $42.8 million.
Feb. 21: Fast Token (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of circulating supply worth $79 million.
Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $34.8 million.
Token Launches
Feb. 13: EthereumPoW (ETHW) and Polygon (MATIC) to no longer be supported at Deribit.
Feb. 13: Story (IP) to be listed on Bybit, Bitrue, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin, and OKX, among others.
Feb. 14: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) to be listed on Coinbase, according to a post shared by the Pudgy Penguins account.
Conferences:
CoinDesk’s Consensus to take place in Hong Kong on Feb. 18-20 and in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 2 of 2: Frankfurt Digital Finance (FDF) 2025
Day 1 of 2: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong
Feb. 23 to March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
Feb. 24: RWA London Summit 2025
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
Derivatives Positioning
Funding rates in perpetual futures tied to SOL, TRS, TRON and DOT remain negative, indicating a bias for shorts, data from Coinglass and Velo Data show.
Annualized funding rates in BTC and ETH hover near 5%.
Most major coins, excluding BNB, have seen negative open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, which raises a question mark on the sustainability of Wednesday’s post-U.S. CPI recovery.
BTC and ETH options skews are positive across the board, reflecting a bull bias.
Flows, however, have been muted, with some demand for out-of-the-money higher strike ETH calls, according to data sources Deribit and Paradigm.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 1.53% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $96,206.67 (24hrs: -0.02%)
ETH is down 0.23% at $2,677.69 (24hrs: +1.79%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.71% to 3,201.06 (24hrs: +0.66%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps to 3.05%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.5606% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.34% at 107.58
Gold is up 1.26% at $2945.7/oz
Silver is up 0.49% to $32.85/oz
Nikkei 225 closed up 1.28% at 39,461.47
Hang Seng closed -0.20% at 21,814.37
FTSE is down 0.74% at 8,742.63
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.23% to 5,471.99
DJIA closed Wednesday -0.50% at 44,368.56
S&P 500 closed -0.24% at 6,051.97
Nasdaq closed 0.03% at 19,649.95
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.27% at 25,563.1
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.93% at 2,421.78
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate was down 2 bps at 4.61%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,073
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.17% at 21,842.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,480
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 60.91 (-0.14%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02784 (-0.50)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 802 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $53.2
Total Fees: 4.63 BTC / $446,657
CME Futures Open Interest: 166,680 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 33.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.40 oz
Technical Analysis
Since the Jan. 3 crash, bitcoin has remained below the widely-tracked 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
It now appears the price has also dipped below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a potential bearish momentum shift.
This twin breakdown could embolden bears. Immediate support is seen at around $90,000.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $326.82 (+2.3%), down 0.56% at $325 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $274.90 (+3%), up 3.24% at $283.8 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.87 (+1.24%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.24 (+1.37%), down 0.55% at $16.16 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.16 (+0.18%), down 0.54% at $11.10 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.09 (-1.39%), unchanged in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.52 (+2.33%), down 0.67% at $10.45 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.73 (+1.75%), unchanged in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $47.69 (+1.51%), unchanged in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.85 (-0.63%), up 2.48% at $50.06 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$251 million
Cumulative net flows: $40.21 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.174 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$40.9 million
Cumulative net flows: $3.13 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.788 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Daily trading volumes in decentralized exchanges based on PancakeSwap have surged to the highest since early December.
The renewed activity partly explains CAKE token’s jump to a two-month high of $3.4.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Miner Riot Adds New Board Member to Push AI Pivot (CoinDesk): Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms added three new directors as it explores repurposing its mining infrastructure for AI workloads.
Bitcoin HODLer Metaplanet to Join MSCI Japan Index, Raises $26M to Buy More BTC (CoinDesk): The bitcoin buyer will be joining the MSCI Japan Index, which tracks the performance of large and mid cap Japanese stocks, on Feb. 28.
Coinbase Eyes Re-Entry to India (TechCrunch): The crypto exchange is reportedly working with Indian regulators to return to the crypto market it left in 2022 nearly six months after Binance resumed operations there.
Fed’s Waller Says Scale of Stablecoins Rests on Harmonized Rules (Bloomberg): Fed Governor Christopher Waller said stablecoins could strengthen the dollar globally, but need a U.S. regulatory framework that deals with their risks.
Ray Dalio to the Trump Administration: Cut Debt Now or Face an ‘Economic Heart Attack’ (CNBC): Citing the massive $36 trillion U.S. debt, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio warns of a potential economic crisis unless the Trump administration urgently cuts the deficit to 3% of GDP from 7.5%.
In the Ether
Meme-inspired cryptocurrency PEPE has lost nearly 6% of its value in the last 24-hour period, sliding to a $0.0000107 low even as large investors accumulate.
Trading volumes for the cryptocurrency surged into the trillions of tokens amid the drop, as the token kept failing to find support amid the intense selling pressure. The drop came amid a wider crypto market drawdown, where the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index lost 1.8% of its value.
Memecoins were especially hard hit in the sell-off. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) dropped nearly 5% over the last 24 hours, while bitcoin saw a drop of 0.8%.
The drop comes just days after altcoin season speculation grew among cryptocurrency circles over the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later this week, which is expected to be a boon for risk assets.
Data from Nansen shows that over the past week, the top 100 non-exchange addresses holding PEPE on the Ethereum network have seen their holdings grow by 1.38% to 307.33 trillion tokens, while exchange wallets had a 1.45% drop in holdings to 254.4 trillion tokens.
Technical Analysis Overview
PEPE’s price action pointed to a market in retreat, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model. The token dropped from $0.000011484 to $0.000010782, with sellers dominating the chart.
Price peaked at $0.000011732 during a resistance test, but volume swelled to 5.5 trillion tokens at that level, before the market ultimately turned lower.
Support showed signs of buckling during the next phase, with the token brushing against $0.000010746. Trading activity intensified again, hitting 7.7 trillion tokens and reinforcing bearish sentiment.
The cryptocurrency’s price whipsawed within a 9% intraday range, a sign that traders remain unsure whether support levels are going to hold.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart
Digital asset treasuries (DATs), publicly traded firms that hold crypto on their balance sheets, have been hit hard in recent weeks as their market NAVs (mNAVs) slid below 1, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said in a new report.
Looking ahead, ether (ETH) DATs appear to have the most staying power thanks to staking yield, regulatory clarity, and room to grow, argued Kendrick.
The mNAV ratio is crucial. When it falls, these firms lose the incentive (and sometimes the ability) to keep buying crypto, threatening a key source of demand for bitcoin (BTC), ether and solana (solana).
Kendrick said that the next phase for DATs will be one of differentiation. The winners will be those that can raise funds at the lowest cost, achieve scale that draws liquidity and investor attention, and, crucially, earn staking yield. That last point tilts the playing field toward ether and solana treasuries over bitcoin, which lacks yield.
Market saturation is also at play. Strategy’s success as the flagship BTC treasury has inspired a flood of copycats, nearly 90 at last count, who together now hold more than 150,000 BTC, up sixfold this year, the analyst noted.
But if mNAVs stay below 1, Standard Chartered expects consolidation. For BTC treasuries, that could mean firms like Saylor’s Strategy buying out rivals rather than buying new bitcoin on the open market, a coin rotation, not fresh demand.
Ether treasuries look better positioned. They have been aggressively accumulating, with 3.1% of ETH’s circulating supply purchased since June. The largest player, Bitmine (BMNR) is well-placed to keep adding to its 2 million ETH stack, the report said.
For crypto markets, this matters. DAT buying has been a key driver of bitcoin and ether prices in 2025. But with BTC treasuries facing consolidation pressure and solana treasuries still relatively small, Standard Chartered sees ETH as the likely beneficiary going forward.
Read more: Strategy’s S&P 500 Snub Is a Cautionary Signal for Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries: JPMorgan
The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis.
Crapis, who announced the initiative Monday on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems.
Ethereum Foundation background
The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects.
Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption.
In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies.
Crapis’s role
Crapis is a research scientist at the EF and will lead the new dAI Team. He said the group will connect its work with both the EF’s protocol group and its ecosystem support arm.
“Ethereum makes AI more trustworthy, and AI makes Ethereum more useful,” he wrote, adding that the team intends to fund public goods and projects at the intersection of AI and blockchains.
ERC-8004 and Trust Standards
The group will build on recent work around ERC-8004, a proposed Ethereum standard that Crapis described as a way to prove who an AI agent is and whether it can be trusted. By offering identity and reputation systems for autonomous agents, the standard is intended to allow coordination without centralized gatekeepers.
Crapis said the team will support new standards and upgrades as they emerge, guided by Ethereum’s values and the “d/acc” philosophy of decentralized acceleration. The goal, he explained, is to ensure AI development remains open and verifiable while giving humans greater agency over how intelligent systems interact with the economy.
Why it matters
For Ethereum, the move signals a growing ambition to anchor emerging technologies beyond finance.
If AI agents begin transacting at scale, demand could grow for settlement rails, reputation systems and standards that run natively on Ethereum. For the AI community, the initiative offers an alternative to centralized platforms that currently dominate AI infrastructure.
“The more intelligent agents transact, the more they need a neutral base layer for value and reputation,” Crapis said. “Ethereum benefits by becoming that layer and AI benefits by escaping lock-in to a few centralized platforms.”
The team has begun hiring and publishing resources, according to Crapis. He said EF intends to work “with purpose and urgency” to connect AI developers with the Ethereum ecosystem and to accelerate research at the boundary of the two fields.
PEPE Price Sinks 6% Amid Market Sell-Off as Whales Accumulate
Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart
Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments
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