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Bitcoin May See Gains from Soft U.S. CPI, Major Risk-On Surge in BTC Appears Unlikely

A soft U.S. inflation report later Wednesday will likely bode well for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). But those expecting bullish fireworks may be disappointed.
The Labor Department will publish January’s consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 UTC. It’s expected to show that the cost of living increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, slowing down from December’s 0.4% rise, according to Reuters estimates tracked by FXStreet. The annualized figure is expected to match December’s 2.9% reading.
The core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen to 0.3% month-over-month from 0.2%, resulting in an annualized reading of 3.1%, down from December’s 3.2%.
Lower-than-expected data, particularly the core figure, will likely bolster expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, which could lead to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar index, ultimately boosting demand for riskier assets. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates a 54% chance that the Fed will either cut interest rates once or not at all this year.
While a potential adjustment in Fed rate cuts could lift BTC, it is unlikely to be the sole catalyst for a breakout from the ongoing consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000.
This is due to forward-looking market metrics indicating higher inflation in the coming months amid trade war fears, suggesting that the Fed may have a limited window to implement aggressive rate cuts.
Data tracked by Mott Capital Management shows that two-year inflation swaps have climbed to nearly 2.8%, the highest since early 2023. The five-year swap is exhibiting a similar trend. Higher inflation swaps indicate that the market is expecting inflation rates to rise in the future, prompting investors to pay a higher premium to protect themselves against potential purchasing power loss by entering into swap contracts tied to CPI.
In other words, the ongoing uptick in these metrics indicate that the progress in inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target has stalled, and price pressures are likely to increase over the coming years, probably due to Trump’s tariffs.
Plus, some investment banks believe a soft January CPI reading won’t see the Fed move away from its hawkish rate guidance. In his testimony to Congress Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates.
«We don’t expect that progress on inflation will be enough to prompt additional interest rate cuts from the Fed this year,» RBC’s weekly note said, adding that January’s report will show limited easing in price pressures.
BlackRock said the persistent services inflation will keep the Fed from cutting rates.
«We get U.S. CPI for January this week. Even as December’s CPI report showed signs of inflation pressures easing, wage growth remains above the level that would allow inflation to recede back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, in our view. We see persistent services inflation forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer,» BlackRock said.
Lastly, BTC may move closer to the lower end of its $90K-$110K trading range should the CPI print hotter than expected.
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CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Index Drops 2.5% as Nearly All Constituents Decline

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 4248.74, down 2.5% (-109.09) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
One of 20 assets is trading higher.
Leaders: AVAX (+0.6%) and BCH (-0.8%).
Laggards: UNI (-9.9%) and LINK (-7.0%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
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Pantera-Backed Solana Treasury Firm Helius Raises $500M, Stock Soars Over 200%

Helius Medical Technologies (HSDT) announced on Monday it’s raising more than $500 million in a private financing round to create a Solana-focused treasury company.
The vehicle will hold SOL, the native token of the Solana blockchain, as its reserve asset and aims to expand to more than $1.25 billion via stock warrants tied to the deal, the press release said.
The financing was led by Pantera Capital and Summer Capital, with participation from investors including Animoca Brands, FalconX and HashKey Capital.
Shares of the firm rallied over 200% above $24 in pre-market trading following the announcement. Solana was down 4% over the past 24 hours.
The firm is joining the latest wave of new digital asset treasuries, or DATs, with public companies pivoting to raise funds and buy cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) or SOL.
Helius is set to rival with the recently launched Forward Industries (FORD) with a $1.65 billion war chest backed by Galaxy Digital and others. That firm confirmed on Monday that has already purchased 6.8 million tokens for roughly $1.58 billion last week.
Helius’ plan is to use Solana’s yield-bearing design to generate income on the holdings, earning staking rewards of around 7% as well as deploying tokens in decentralized finance (DeFi) and lending opportunities. Incoming executive chairman Joseph Chee, founder of Summer Capital and a former UBS banker, will lead the firm’s digital asset strategy alongside Pantera’s Cosmo Jiang and Dan Morehead.
«As a pioneer in the digital asset treasury space, having participated in the formation of the strategy at Twenty One Capital (CEP) with Tether, Softbank and Cantor, Bitmine (BMNR) with Tom Lee and Mozayyx as well as EightCo (OCTO) with Dan Ives and Sam Altman, we have built the expertise to set up the pre-eminent Solana treasury vehicle,» Cosmo Jiang, general partner at Pantera Capital, said in a statement.
«There is a real opportunity to drive the flywheel of creating shareholder value that Michael Saylor has pioneered with Strategy by accelerating Solana adoption,» he added.
Read more: Solana Surges as Galaxy Scoops Up Over $700M Tokens From Exchanges
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Boundless Launches Mainnet on Base, Ushering in Universal Zero-Knowledge Compute

Boundless, the zero-knowledge (ZK) compute marketplace incubated by RISC Zero, has officially launched its Mainnet on Base, giving every blockchain access to verifiable compute.
The milestone builds on the network’s incentivized testnet, which went live in July and stress-tested Boundless’ architecture under real-world conditions.
During that Beta phase, Boundless operated like a decentralized marketplace where developers seeking ZK proofs for applications such as rollups, bridges and privacy protocols could connect with independent provers, or ZK miners, who generated those proofs.
The launch introduced Proof of Verifiable Work, an incentive mechanism that rewards provers based on the volume, speed and complexity of their computations. Community participation was strong, fueled in part by the anticipation of $ZKC token rewards.
With Monday’s mainnet launch, those capabilities are now operational at scale. The team behind Boundless says it can deliver verifiable compute across chains, enabling developers to build applications that preserve privacy while scaling seamlessly between ecosystems.
Some key protocols have started to integrate Boundless into their systems. Wormhole is integrating Boundless to add ZK verification to Ethereum consensus, making cross-chain transfers more secure.
BOB, a hybrid Bitcoin rollup, is tapping Boundless to allow EVM applications to interoperate with Bitcoin using proofs that inherit Bitcoin’s security while drawing on Ethereum’s liquidity. And staking protocol Lido is deploying Boundless to secure validator exits with transparent proofs, strengthening trust and auditability for its crypto assets.
“For the first time, developers on any chain can access abundant zero-knowledge compute to build complex applications that scale across ecosystems without sacrificing decentralization,” said Shiv Shankar, the CEO of Boundless.
Read more: Risc Zero’s ‘Boundless’ Incentivized Testnet Goes Live
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