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U.S. Bitcoin Reserve May Be Coming, But States Are Winning the Race
Almost half of the state governments in the U.S. are either on a path toward putting some of their money into crypto or already have, and much of a suddenly booming interest in tying their financial futures to the digital-assets markets has come after U.S. President Donald Trump showed support for a national stockpile of digit assets.
In the surge of crypto legislative or financial efforts at the state level, 21 states are investing or looking into investing — generally in the industry’s leading token, bitcoin (BTC), and sometimes also in less volatile stablecoins that are designed to match the value of the U.S. dollar, according to a CoinDesk analysis. With states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Utah and Texas already digging into legislation to open public funds to buy cryptocurrencies, such initiatives may outpace the effort in Congress targeting a so-called Strategic Bitcoin R
Sixteen state legislatures are looking at bills to either establish digital assets stockpiles or to allow their state retirement funds to be partially invested in crypto, most of them introduced in recent weeks. Officials in another three states are engaged in serious discussions about joining in, and the money managers for two states — Michigan and Wisconsin — have already dipped parts of their public employees’ retirement portfolios into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
If the states begin pouring portions of their public funds into bitcoin and other digital assets, it would potentially lock down billions of dollars of the tokens for extended periods, boosting the value of the assets still openly circulating. Another effect: The states are potentially setting up millions of people to have personal stakes in the health of the crypto sector — whether they want to or not.
In several of the proposals, governments are looking to follow in the footsteps of Michigan and Wisconsin in pushing parts of their retirement funds and state pension investments into digital assets. Retired school teachers, law enforcement officers and other public employees will watch some of their financial security become dependent on the fluctuations of the crypto markets.
Other pieces of legislation would instruct state treasurers to spend as much as 10% of their public funds on a strategic reserve, with some specifying that qualifying digital assets must have at least a $500 billion market cap, leaving only bitcoin currently meeting the mark.
Arizona and Utah are building a lead after getting their efforts passed by legislative committees, but other states weighing some version of a crypto bill also include Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Wyoming. Others, such as Alabama, Florida and Kentucky are considering proposals from state officials or on the verge of pursuing legislation. The states interested in digital assets reserves are predominantly Republican-majority in their politics, and the reasons the lawmakers say they’re backing the bills include investment diversity and embracing technological innovation.
The amount put away by the states could eventually be overshadowed by the U.S. government’s own reserve, if that effort comes to pass. President Trump, in his wider executive order on U.S. crypto policy, called for his administration to «evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile.» The order suggested it may be built from government seizures of crypto in criminal cases.
The idea had initially been pitched by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who devotes much of her political bandwidth to supporting crypto and was named as the first chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee. Her bill to set up a U.S. reserve calls for the country to obtain about $20 billion worth of the tokens in the first year and to get another 200,000 in each of the next four years, until the U.S. is eventually holding a million bitcoin.
While Lummis’ pitch has called it a «Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,» it’s not — like the petroleum reserve — designed for deployment when economic conditions warrant it. It’s structured more as a long-term investment, requiring the U.S. to hold the assets for at least 20 years.
That would be almost 5% of the eventual, finite supply of global bitcoin going untouched for at least two decades. Combined with whatever the states seek to stockpile, U.S. governments would secure a significant percentage of the asset, in addition to the towering reserves held by the U.S. ETF issuers such as BlackRock and Grayscale and corporate investors led by MicroStrategy.
The states’ interest in bitcoin potentially lands Satoshi Nakamoto’s ultimate exercise of financial outsiders firmly in the realm of the insiders, adding the asset to the core functions of government. The Bitcoin white paper meant to establish a system of transactions outside of the need of financial-firm intermediaries or government oversight.
States setting up bitcoin funds managed in part by new laws could become some of the most stable of the industry’s institutional investors. And naming bitcoin as a «strategic reserve» puts the digital tokens on par with gold and oil as economic mainstays, despite the very different nature of cryptocurrencies and their practical weaknesses as an inflation hedge.
From the perspective of their citizens or public employees, states that grab crypto stakes will come away with two potential outcomes: Millions of people will enjoy more comfortable and well-funded retirements or public services; or millions of people will watch a crypto crash eat into the safety net they’re counting on.
It could be «disastrous for tens of millions of retirees if government officials gambled with state pension funds to buy bitcoin or crypto,» said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a Washington-based advocacy group that’s critical of the dangers of digital assets.
He called the idea of a government bitcoin stockpile «a brazen attempt by a handful of crypto billionaires and their political allies to take money out of Main Street taxpayers’ pockets to create artificial demand for a highly volatile product that suffers from boom-bust cycles, is full of fraudulent trading and pricing in unregulated markets, and has no socially legitimate use, but is loved by criminals.»
Wagers on the prediction site Polymarket have put the odds of one of the states beginning to set aside bitcoin reserves before the end of this month at 11%, and the chances of the U.S. setting up such a reserve this year at the national level are at 45%.
It may already be a trend that governments around the world can’t ignore.
«We anticipate more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in bitcoin,» Fidelity Digital Assets researchers predicted in a look-ahead report for 2025. «Facing challenges such as debilitating inflation, currency debasement, and increasingly crushing fiscal deficits, not making any bitcoin allocation could become more of a risk to nations than making one.»
Uncategorized
Bitcoin Network Hashrate Declined in June as Miners Reacted to Recent Heatwave: JPMorgan
The Bitcoin (BTC) network monthly average hashrate fell about 3% in June, Wall Street bank JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report Tuesday.
The hashrate refers to the total combined computational power used to mine and process transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain, and is a proxy for competition in the industry and mining difficulty. It is measured in exahashes per second (EH/s).
«Our sense is the decline was driven by seasonal weather-related curtailment in the U.S., and note that Cipher, IREN and Riot alone operate >80 EH/s in Texas,» analysts Reginald Smith and Charles Pearce wrote.
Bitcoin mining profitability continues to improve. The bank’s analysts estimated that miners earned an average of $55,300 per EH/s in daily block reward revenue last month, a 7% increase from April.
Daily block reward gross profit rose 13% month-on-month to the highest level since January, the analysts noted.
The total market cap of the 13 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners the bank follows rose 23%, or around $5.3 billion, from the previous month, the report said.
Operators with high-performance computing (HPC) exposure outperformed pure-play miners due to speculation of a deal between Core Scientific (CORZ) and CoreWeave (CRWV).
IREN (IREN) outperformed the group with a 67% gain, while Bitfarms (BITF) was the worst performer with a 19% decline, the report added.
Read more: U.S.-Listed Bitcoin Miners’ Share of Network Hashrate Hit Record High in June: JPMorgan
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) ended June above $107,000 at a record monthly close. Still, the largest crypto’s 2.5% monthly gain failed to match the euro’s advance against the dollar, the most liquid FX pair in the world.
The eurozone currency rose nearly 4% against the greenback last month, hitting its highest since September 2021. That prompted some traders to switch to euro-pegged stablecoins, resulting in a notable increase in their market values.
The euro’s momentum highlights the continued broad-based decline in the U.S. currency, which means financial conditions will likely remain easy, even though the weakness hasn’t done much to lift a directionless BTC.
The prolonged range play has been widely attributed to selling by wallets with a history of holdings coins for over a year. The profit-taking continued on Monday, with on-chain realized gains hitting the $2.4 billion mark.
BTC was recently trading 0.6% lower over 24 hours at $106,500. Other tokens, including XRP, DOGE, SOL and ETH, followed suit, while BCH, ALGO, and PAXG stood out.
Some analysts called for patience in the wake of continued institutional adoption. On Monday, Germany’s savings bank network said it will enable crypto trading for clients within a year. Strategy disclosed another major BTC purchase last week, acquiring $531 million worth of BTC.
«While short-term momentum has faded, medium-term signals remain bullish, especially with corporate treasuries accelerating their accumulation pace. We slightly reduced exposure to protect capital but remain constructive — especially on altcoins with room to catch up,» Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN.
That said, the third quarter has historically been bitcoin’s weakest. Moreover, liquidity tends to be weaker as well due to summer holidays, which raises the likelihood of exaggerated price moves. Remember the yen-led crash in BTC from $70,000 to $50,000 in late July to early August last year? This calls for caution even as analysts maintain the long-term constructive outlook.
In other news, American Bitcoin, a crypto firm backed by Eric Trump, raised $220 million to buy bitcoin and mining equipment. An FTX creditor posted on X that claims under $50,000 received 120% payouts in February and May 2025.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas said that there’s a 95% chance the U.S. SEC will approve spot ETFs for LTC and XRP this year.
In traditional markets, analysts awaited the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later Tuesday and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- July 2: Shares of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (tSSK) are expected to begin trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange, making this the first U.S.-listed ETF to combine SOL price exposure with on-chain staking rewards.
- Macro
- Day 2 of 3: ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal)
- July 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
- Manufacturing PMI Prev. 49.4
- July 1, 9:30 a.m.: “High Level Policy Panel” discussion chaired by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Livestream link.
- July 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
- Manufacturing PMI Est. 52 vs. Prev. 52
- July 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
- Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 48.8 vs. Prev. 48.5
- July 1, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April U.S. labor market data (i.e. the JOLTS report).
- Job Openings Est. 7.3M vs. Prev. 7.391M
- Job Quits Prev. 3.194M
- July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
- Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
- Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
- Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
- Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
- Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -6K vs. Prev. -8K
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
- Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
- July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
- Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
- Services PMI Prev. 49.6
- July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
- Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
- Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
- July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
- Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- None in the near future.
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on renewing its partnership with Nethermind for Gnosis Chain maintenance and development, proposing 750,000 DAI funding for the first year from June, with 4% annual increases. Voting ends July 2.
- Radiant DAO is voting on potentially compensating users whose wallets were drained via unlimited token approvals in the October 2024 hack. If passed, a follow-up plan would outline stablecoin conversions, claim contracts on Arbitrum, and phased repayments. Voting ends July 2.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to match decreased voter participation and help well-supported proposals pass more easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
- Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
- Unlocks
- July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $122.75 million.
- July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.59 million.
- July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
- July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $52.7 million.
- July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $14.42 million.
- July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $15.73 million.
- July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $30.33 million.
- Token Launches
- July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to be delisted from Binance.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.
- Day 2 of 4: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
- Day 2 of 6: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)
- Day 1 of 6: Bitcoin Alaska (Juneau, Alaska)
- July 4-5: The Bitcoin Paradigm 2025 (Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
- July 4–6: ETHGlobal Cannes (Cannes, France)
- July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
- July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
- July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
- July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
- July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
- July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
- While all eyes were on the introduction of Robinhood’s tokenized stocks and on Kraken and Bybit’s xStocks debut, a layer-2 network built to streamline DeFi quietly launched its mainnet yesterday.
- Katana’s mainnet went live after it saw pre-deposits near $250 million, according to DeFiLlama data. The blockchain is backed by GSR and Polygon Labs.
- The non-profit Katana Foundation says the chain attacks three chronic pain points: thin liquidity, erratic yields and capital flight. It does so by folding yield generation into the base layer.
- When users bridge USDC, ETH, WBTC, AUSD or USDT, Katana’s VaultBridge pushes those funds into lending pools such as those on Morpho and Sushi, then sends the earnings back to depositors and app builders.
- A separate mechanism called chain-owned liquidity captures transaction fees to bankroll the network over time.
- Katana is distributing its native token, KAT, through liquidity mining. KAT is non-transferable for now, but the team expects an exchange listing by next year. Holders will be able to lock tokens for vKAT and share in staking rewards.
Derivatives Positioning
- Perpetual funding rates for most tokens major tokens, including BTC and ETH, held marginally positive. XRP led with near 10% rates while XLM and ADA showed bias for shorts with sub-zero readings.
- On the CME, BTC and ETH futures basis remained locked in the annualized 7% to 10% range.
- On Deribit, risk reversals out to August-end expiry showed a bias for protective puts, with subsequent tenors showing a mild bias for calls. In ETH’s case, bearishness in the short-term tenors was more pronounced.
- Block flows over the OTC desk Paradigm showed demand for the September expiry BTC $180K call option.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.91% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $106,629.81 (24hrs: -0.96%)
- ETH is down 1.81% at $2,458.53 (24hrs: +0.15%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.37% at 3,010.77 (24hrs: -0.17%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.96%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0048% (5.3042% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.47% at 96.42
- Gold futures are up 1.49% at $3,357.10
- Silver futures are up 1.81% at $36.50
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.24% at 39,986.33
- Hang Seng closed down 0.87% at 24,072.28
- FTSE is down 0.17% at 8,745.89
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.30% at 5,287.47
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.63% at 44,094.77
- S&P 500 closed up 0.52% at 6,204.95
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 20,369.73
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.62% at 26,857.11
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.41% at 2,694.58
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.9 bps at 4.197%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.26% at 6,237.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 22,817.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.13% at 44,331.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 65.34% (0.19%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02307 (-0.6%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 869 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $57.97
- Total Fees: 4.22 BTC / $455,433
- CME Futures Open Interest: 147,470 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 32.2 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.12%
Technical Analysis
- BTC fell 1% Monday, narrowly missing the bull flag breakout. The decline produced a bearish outside day candle, with a price range wider than the preceding day’s candle.
- Bearish outside day candles appearing after notable price gains, as in BTC’s case, signal renewed bearish trends.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $404.23 (+5.3%), -1.64% at $397.59 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $350.49 (-0.83%), -1.53% at $345.12
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $181.29 (+0.48%), +1.98% at $184.88
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.90 (+9.66%), +3.47% at $22.66
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.68 (+4.32%), -1.85% at $15.39
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.3 (+7.11%), -1.59% at $11.12
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.07 (+2.52%), -1.52% at $16.81
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.03 (+3.37%), -1.81% at $10.83
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.74 (+4.74%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.74 (+0.62%), +0.15% at $38.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.83 (-3.42%), +1.14% at $29.16
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $102.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $48.95 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $31.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $4.23 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~4.1 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The dollar value of the total stablecoin transactions crossed above the $4 trillion mark in June, the most since January, according to data source Artemis.
- The data shows that while BTC’s price didn’t do much in the month, adoption of stablecoin continued unabated.
While You Were Sleeping
- Mexico and Brazil Seek Deeper Trade Ties to Expand Beyond US and China (Financial Times): Trump-era tariffs and new leftist governments have created a rare opening for Latin America’s two largest economies to revisit a limited trade pact and explore deeper commercial integration.
- Trump Crypto Venture Raises $220 Million for Bitcoin Mining (Bloomberg): American Bitcoin raised $220 million from private investors including $10 million in bitcoin. Majority owner Hut 8 Corp. plans to take it public through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining.
- XRP, TRX, DOGE Lead Majors With Positive Funding Rates as Bitcoin’s Traditionally Weak Quarter Begins (CoinDesk): Perpetual funding rates indicate a bullish sentiment for top altcoins, with XRP showing the strongest demand, while rates for market leaders bitcoin and ether are marginally positive.
- Robinhood, Kraken-Backed Global Dollar (USDG) Comes to Europe (CoinDesk): USDG is regulated by the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, Finland’s Financial Supervisory Authority and Singapore’s Monetary Authority. MiCA requires issuer Paxos to hold reserves with European banking partners.
- The Dollar Has Its Worst Start to a Year Since 1973 (The New York Times): Trump’s tariff policy, rising national debt, and the moves toward de-dollarization have reduced the dollar’s appeal, even amid high interest rates and a booming stock market.
- ARK Invest Sold $95M of Coinbase Shares After COIN’s Surge to Record Highs (CoinDesk): Monday’s $43.8 million sale brings ARK’s total to 270,984 COIN shares offloaded over three sessions, as the stock’s surge above $380 triggered sales to keep COIN under 10% in its ETFs.
In the Ether
The Blockchain Group (ALTBG), listed on Euronext Growth Paris has secured roughly 11 million euros ($13 million) in fresh funding as it doubles down on becoming Europe’s first bitcoin (BTC) treasury company.
This strategic move underscores the firm’s commitment to growing its bitcoin holdings relative to its share count, aiming to deliver long-term value to investors through exposure to digital assets.
Part of the fundraising included $1.18 million capital increase at 5.251 euro per share, completed under an “ATM-type” agreement with asset manager TOBAM.
In parallel, the company’s wholly owned Luxembourg subsidiary issued 10 million euros ($11.8 million) in convertible bonds, priced at 5.174 euro per share, reflecting a 30 percent premium over the June 27 closing price. TOBAM subscribed for 5 million euros while bitcoin pioneer Adam Back invested around 5 million euros.
The Blockchain Group currently hold 1,794 BTC, while the share price is up 1% on Tuesday.
Bitcoin Network Hashrate Declined in June as Miners Reacted to Recent Heatwave: JPMorgan
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Posts Record Monthly Close, but Euro Steals the Show
The Blockchain Group Raises $13M to Advance Bitcoin Treasury Vision
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