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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rebounds as DeepSeek Concerns Wane, AI Tokens Regroup

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market is showing signs of stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $102,000 and positive signals from futures tied to the Nasdaq. Leading the recovery among major cryptocurrencies is XRP, up 11%, followed by SOL with a 7% increase. AI coins, hit hard on Monday, are posting gains of as much as 4%.

Risk sentiment is likely being supported by skepticism surrounding the claims of Chinese tech startup DeepSeek, which asserts it spent only $6 million to develop its competitor to ChatGPT. Critics speculate the figure omits costs associated with earlier research and experimentation on architectures, algorithms and data. Additionally, a concept rooted in the Jevons Paradox suggests that advancements in efficiency often lead to increased usage rather than reduced consumption, leading to net positive growth in the industry.

That’s good news for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry because they align with the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism, particularly given President Trump’s crypto-friendly stance and plans to establish a strategic digital asset reserve.

Speaking of the strategic reserve, Arizona lawmakers have advanced a bill that would permit government entities or public funds to invest up to 10% of their capital in bitcoin and other digital assets.

The broader outlook remains bullish, with on-chain data pointing to capitulation of weak hands and continued accumulation by large investors.

«According to CryptoQuant data, the share of investors with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC who purchased coins in the last 155 days increased from 43% to 60%, reflecting the emergence of large players amid optimistic sentiment,» said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the FxPro.

QCP Capital expects this week to test BTC’s correlation with equities, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) network upgrade (v0.57.5).

Jan. 29: Cardano’s Plomin hard fork network upgrade.

Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.

Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.: Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade (v1.0.14)

Feb. 4: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q4, FY 2024 earnings.

Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 PEPE.

Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgrade for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.

Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.: Shentu Chain network upgrade (v2.14.0).

Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings.

Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade at block 4,590,000.

Feb. 18 (after market close): Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings.

Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings.

Macro

Jan. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders.

MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. -1.1%.

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed releases December’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.

Money Supply Prev. $21.45T.

Jan. 29, 12:00 a.m.: Japan’s Cabinet Office releases January’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

Est. 36.5 vs. Prev. 36.2.

Jan. 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases Monetary Developments in the Euro Area for December.

M3 Money Supply YoY Est. 3.8% vs. Prev. 3.8%.

Jan. 29, 8:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) releases the (quarterly) Monetary Policy Report.

Jan. 29, 9:45 a.m.: The BoC announces its interest-rate decision.

Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.25% followed by a press conference at 10:30 a.m.

Jan. 29, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces the U.S. central bank’s interest-rate decision.

Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25% to 4.5% followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Morpho DAO is voting whether to reduce MORPHO rewards by 30% across all assets and networks and set all assets other than those with ETH or USD denominations to have the same reward rate as BTC-denominated assets.

Sky DAO is voting whether to reduce the WBTC liquidation threshold from 55% to 50% on SparkLend Ethereum.

Yearn DAO is voting whether to fund and endorse Bearn, a new subDAO aiming to build and launch products on Berachain.

Unlocks

Jan. 28: Tribal Token (TRIBL) to unlock 14% of its circulating supply worth $60 million.

Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.

Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.

Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlocked about 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.

Token Listings

Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.

Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences:

Jan. 29-31: Crypto Peaks 2025 (Palisades, California)

Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025 (online)

Jan. 30-31: Ethereum Zurich 2025

Jan. 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Jan. 30 to Feb. 1: Crypto Gathering 2025 (Miami Beach, Florida)

Jan. 30-Feb. 1: CryptoXR 2025 (Auxerre, France)

Jan. 30-Feb. 2: Oasis Onchain 2025 (Nassau, Bahamas)

Jan. 30-Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai)

Feb. 1-28: Mammathon global hackathon for Celestia (online).

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)

Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai)

Feb. 6: Ondo Summit 2025 (New York).

Feb. 7: Solana APEX (Mexico City)

Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.

Feb. 18-20: CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong

Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong

Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)

Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

AI-focused Venice AI (VVV) zoomed to a $1 billion market capitalization on Monday on its appeal of offering private, uncensored AI inference access without per-request fees.

The Base-based token was listed on Coinbase — one of the rare assets listed on the exchange on the day of launch — which may have helped propel the move.

Users stake VVV tokens to gain API access to AI stalwart DeepSeek, with ongoing rewards from token emissions.

Derivatives Positioning

CME’s bitcoin and ether futures saw a notable drop in open interest on Monday, as traders de-risked during a sharp slide in Nvidia and other Nasdaq stocks.

Perpetual funding rates for major coins have stabilized in the range of an annualized 5%-10%. Funding rates for BTC had briefly flipped bearish below zero early Monday.

BTC calls are pricier than puts across all timeframes, while ETH’s front-end puts trade pricier, reflecting concerns of extended price drops in the next couple of days.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $98,784.45 (24hrs: +4.07%)

ETH is up 1.62% at $3,050.20 (24hrs: +4.52%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 3.2% to 3,536.28 (24hrs: +6.73%)

CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps to 3.19%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.2221% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.57% at 107.95

Gold is up 0.34% at $2,743.59/oz

Silver is up 0.35% to $30.16/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -1.39% at 39,016.87

Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11

FTSE is up 0.58% at 8,553.75

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.47% at 5,212.71

DJIA closed on Monday +0.65% to 44,713.58

S&P 500 closed -1.46% at 6,012.28

Nasdaq closed -3.07% at 19,341.83

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.7% at 25,289.15

S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.34% at 2,330.61

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.57%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6070.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 21,400.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,935.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 59.16 (0.15%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031 (-0.32%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 767 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $58.7

Total Fees: 6.13 BTC/ $616,619

CME Futures Open Interest: 170,240 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.68%

Technical Analysis

ETH carved out a candle with a long tail Monday, signaling bear fatigue at intraday lows. That’s often seen as a sign of an impending trend change higher.

Prices, however, remain trapped in a descending channel, suggesting a bearish outlook.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $347.92 (-1.63%), down 0.36% at $346.66 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $277.99 (-6.71%), up 0.76% at $280.11 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.36 (-15.87%).

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.28 (-8.53%), up 0.63% at $18.40 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.45 (-15.44%), down 6.87% at $12.61 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.28 (-29.41%), up 2.22% at $11.53 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.31 (-10.62%), up 1.21% at $10.43 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20.78 (-20.75%), down 3.99% at $21.61 in pre-market.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $50.43 (-9.07%).

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $74 (+20.82%), unchanged in pre-market.

ETF Flows

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$457.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $39.49 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.157 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$136.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.67 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.59 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Daily trading volume on Solana-based decentralized exchanges has dropped sharply to less than $10 billon from the high of $35 billion registered on Jan. 18, when the TRUMP token debuted and triggered a memecoin frenzy.

Volumes, however, remain elevated at the average activity levels seen in November and December.

While You Were Sleeping

KuCoin to Pay Nearly $300M Fine After Pleading Guilty to DOJ Charges (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange KuCoin pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, agreeing to pay $297 million in penalties and to exit the U.S. for two years.

Tuttle Capital Proposes First-Ever Leveraged ETFs of TRUMP, MELANIA, Cardano, Others (CoinDesk): Tuttle Capital Management filed 10 2x leveraged crypto ETF proposals with the SEC, including those tracking TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins.

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Says ‘Own Bitcoin, Not MicroStrategy’ (CoinDesk): On Monday’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer endorsed owning bitcoin while cautioning against MicroStrategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder. Critics frequently interpret his advice as a contrarian indicator.

Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse Bats for Diversified U.S. Crypto Reserve (CoinDesk): Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supports a U.S. digital asset reserve representing multiple tokens, not just bitcoin, calling BTC maximalism «the enemy of crypto progress.»

BOJ to Raise Rates Again by July, Eventually Eye Hike to 1.5%, Says Ex-Policymaker (Reuters): Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai predicts the bank will raise interest rates again by mid-2025, targeting 1.5% within two years.

Dollar Climbs as Trump Puts Tariff Threats Back on the Agenda (Bloomberg): The dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the yen leading losses after falling over 0.9%, as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reignited tariff concerns.

OpenAI’s Altman Vows ‘Better Models’ as China’s DeepSeek Disrupts Global Race (Financial Times): On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded to DeepSeek’s generative AI rival to ChatGPT by pledging to accelerate product launches and deliver superior models.

In the Ether

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Floki Teams With Softbank Partner Rice Robotics for Tokenization of AI Data

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Rice Robotics and dog-themed utility project Floki will soon launch the Minibot M1, a Floki-branded AI-powered companion robot that works on the RICE AI platform.

Floki will support the company in its blockchain push as it moves towards tokenizing its brand and AI data marketplace through TokenFi, a Floki sister project focused on tokenizing real-world assets, with support from the Floki community.

“The AI robotics market size is currently worth an estimated $22 billion and is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, and we believe Rice Robotics is well-positioned for growth in this high-potential industry,” the Floki team told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

RICE AI is a robotics brand with high-profile clients such as Nvidia, Softbank, Dubai Future Foundation, Mitsui Fudosan, NTT Japan, and 7-Eleven. It raised over $7 million in a pre-Series A funding round earlier this year from investors including Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund, Soul Capital and Audacy Ventures.

RICE AI wants to make robots smarter by creating a system where robots worldwide can buy and share top-notch training data. These robots work independently without central control, making them more useful in the real world.

FLOKI prices are up 16% in the past 24 hours alongside a broader crypto market bump.

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Galaxy , CoreWeave Expand Alliance With Data Center Expansion

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Galaxy Digital (GLXY) said it deepened its strategic partnership with CoreWeave (CRWV), reinforcing its ambitions in the fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) data center industry.

Under a new agreement, CoreWeave will gain access to an additional 260 megawatts (MW) of critical IT load at Galaxy’s Helios data center campus in West Texas, bringing the total committed capacity for AI and HPC operations at the site to 393 MW.

The move marks another shift by Galaxy away from bitcoin mining, with the Helios campus acquired from Argo Blockchain in 2022 moving toward becoming a cornerstone for next-gen digital infrastructure. CEO Mike Novogratz emphasized the strategic value of diversifying the company’s business across blockchain, crypto and AI, highlighting the long-term potential to maximize shareholder value.

Galaxy shares rose as much as 8% in Toronto trading and are now up 60% from their April lows. CoreWeave rose as much as 13% as was recently trading 10% higher.

This announcement follows the March Phase I lease agreement that covered 133 MW over 15 years. The new Phase II commitment mirrors the terms of the initial deal and reflects both parties’ confidence in the site’s capacity and strategic location. With infrastructure upgrades already in motion, Phase I is expected to be service-ready by mid-2026, while Phase II will come online in 2027.

The site benefits from 800 MW of approved capacity and an additional 1.7 gigawatts currently undergoing evaluation — positioning Galaxy for further expansion.

CoreWeave retains exclusivity for even more capacity

Meanwhile, Galaxy is also exploring opportunities to monetize its legacy bitcoin mining infrastructure, signaling a decisive pivot in its operational focus.

Disclaimer: This article, or parts of it, was generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Maple Finance CEO Sidney Powell on Building the DeFi-Bond Bridge

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Maple Finance is quietly becoming one of the most important bridges between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance.

Co-founded by Sidney Powell in 2021, the institutional crypto lending platform has facilitated over $5 billion in loans and is increasingly positioning itself as the infrastructure layer for tokenized private credit — a sector TradFi is rapidly embracing.

After a turbulent few years for crypto credit markets, Maple has staged an impressive comeback. In 2024, its total value locked surged over 580%, driven by new products like SyrupUSDC — a permissionless yield offering blocked to U.S. users but aimed at global DeFi protocols. Its TVL that year went from around $44 million to over $300 million.Sidney Powell is a speaker at the Consensus 2025 Open Money Summit on May 14.

Powell points to Maple’s custodian integrations, native BTC support, and low counterparty risk as key advantages for institutions seeking yield in a post-FTX landscape.

At the same time, Maple has aligned its governance and incentives around a single token, SYRUP, migrating away from the older NPL model. With no equity holders behind the scenes, Powell argues that SYRUP is the only capital structure needed — a design that sidesteps the misaligned incentives that have plagued other token projects.

Ahead of Consensus 2025, Maple is expanding its footprint in Asia and Latin America, launching a bitcoin liquid staking token, and betting big on the continued rise of institutional DeFi.

Powell, an Australian fintech entrepreneur who started his career in traditional finance at National Australia Bank in Melbourne, sat down with CoinDesk to talk about what’s next. This Q&A was edited for clarity and brevity.

CoinDesk: Maple’s growth in 2024 has been impressive. What’s driving it, and how are you positioning Maple differently from other DeFi lenders?

Powell: A lot of the growth in Q2 came from our ability to accept a wider range of collateral — for example, SOL, not just BTC. That opened us up for more bespoke types of loans for our institutional borrowers who accepted SOL as collateral instead of just BTC and ETH.

That gave us a broader set of customers. But from Q3 onward, the real driver was the launch of SyrupUSDC — a permissionless version of the product geared towards DeFi, though blocked in the U.S., it offers the same yield from institutional loans under the hood. We also formed partnerships with Pendle, Morpho, and Sky.

Having that DeFi access point, the ability for protocols to integrate us, was a really good source of growth. The other thing is: borrowers like our product. They can post native BTC without smart contracts and face less counterparty risk.

Because we’re only really dealing with institutions, we’ve consistently offered a higher yield, which attracts more capital over time.

The introduction of the SYRUP token was absolutely pivotal in the development of Maple. What’s the token’s role within the ecosystem, and how does it enhance it?

SYRUP ties together governance — it’s the only token in the Maple ecosystem. Last year, we migrated from the old NPL token to SYRUP, which now handles coordination and governance. What’s unique is that we have no equity; there is only the token, and I think that prevents an inherent conflict of interest. 

IT removes the conflicts of interest you see when equity holders extract all the value and the token is treated like an afterthought. With us, it’s only the token. About 90% of it is already circulating, and it’s been around for over four years.

All of the interests are aligned; it’s only the token, and there’s no equity to connect the ecosystem. That long-term alignment of interests helps keep the ecosystem connected.

Earlier this year — and more recently — volatility has been extreme. In early February, Maple published a post where it said it managed to endure one of the largest liquidation events with zero liquidations on its protocol. What lessons did you get from this experience, and how did you achieve this?

First off, these events always seem to happen on Sunday nights! February was no different, as weren’t August and April of last year. But what saved us is underwriting — all of our clients consistently post collateral and have done so over all of the periods of volatility we’ve had. Over the past 18 months, we’ve only had one partial liquidation, which shows the importance of underwriting clients to make sure they can always post more collateral.

That highlights how careful we are with loan-to-value ratios and the kinds of collateral we accept. If we accept something very illiquid, in times of volatility there’s more risk to us, our lenders, and capital providers.

After every volatility event, we do a post-mortem to refine our process. That’s become even more important as we’ve grown from $150 million to $800 million in total value locked — we have to be much more dialed in and efficient.

Maple is expanding to the Asia Pacific and Latin America regions. What opportunities and challenges do you foresee in these markets?In Asia, everything runs on relationships, so we hired a BD person in Hong Kong to help build that up. We have yield from lending against bitcoin and we have a bitcoin yield product, which I think is going to be very important in cracking Asia.

There’s such a large base of high-net-worth individuals and family offices holding BTC, so our bitcoin yield and lending products are a good fit.

In Latin America, it’s more of a retail-driven market. SyrupUSDC penetration matters more there — apps like Lemon bring in customer deposits and use DeFi on the backend. Our retail-facing products and partnerships will be key to cracking that region. There’s also a big penetration of bitcoin there, so BTC yield products will also be really good.

As we look forward to Consensus, what key themes and developments do you see in the DeFi world in the near future, and how is Maple positioning itself to deal with them?

I think reward assets are going to continue to be a persistent theme because it’s very appealing to institutions, especially those coming into crypto for the first time. We’re seeing more TradFi players like Cantor Fitzgerald getting involved in crypto-backed lending. 

Stablecoins and lending are proven models that institutions understand and have proven out. They are going to continue to draw the attention of institutions who are perhaps professional asset managers, and their first steps into the space will be a key thing. Bitcoin is often their entry point — first they buy it, then they want to borrow against it or generate yield.

That’s why we’re focused on Bitcoin DeFi and launching a bitcoin liquid staking token. It’ll let people use BTC as collateral that actually earns yield — something that’s been missing until now.

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