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Bitcoin Dives to Under $99K as DeepSeek, FOMC Steal Trump Effect

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Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to under $99,000 early Monday as traders took profits ahead of the first U.S. FOMC meeting this year, scheduled for later this week, and China-based AI stalwart DeepSeek impacted U.S. tech sector sentiment.

Traders expect no indications of a rate cut at the two-day FOMC meeting scheduled for Jan. 28 to Jan. 29, which has typically impacted bitcoin prices as investors either prefer or move away from risk assets.

“U.S. economic data shows that there may be less need for a federal interest rate cut in the near term,” Ben El-Baz, managing director of HashKey Global, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“Concerns over trade wars and tariffs linger, but a bullish sentiment remains strong as MicroStrategy and Trump’s World Liberty Financial continue purchasing crypto.”

BTC dropped nearly 6% from a Sunday high of over $105,000, with a steep drop coming as Asian markets opened Monday. This came despite a major catalyst on Friday, when U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the creating of a crypto policy group to advise and drive the country’s industry within six months.

Crypto market capitalization fell 8%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell more than 8.14%.

The drop tracked a fall in U.S. stock indices — whose movements bitcoin tends to mirror — with futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down as much as 2.15% on Monday ahead of the market open.

Much of the concern draws from a possible overvaluation in U.S. tech companies as DeepSeek’s latest AI model is significantly cheaper to produce and was built using open-source technology that is easy to access.

As CoinDesk reported Monday, data from DeepSeek posted on Hugging Face, a forum of the AI industry, shows that its model outperforms OpenAI, all while being built on a budget of $6 million and a fraction of the Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) that OpenAI uses – which recently closed a $6.6 billion round with a valuation of over $157 billion.

OpenAI has previously asked for trillions of dollars in funding to build AI systems at scale and is part of the new U.S. project Stargate, which has attracted $500 billion in investments and includes Trump SoftBank and Oracle, to build AI data centers in the country.

However, DeepSeek’s reported costs and features threaten the established narrative of needing vast computational resources for AI innovation, potentially reducing the competitive edge of U.S. tech firms and questioning the sustainability of their high valuations — impacting broader market sentiment and bitcoin in the near term.

As such, traders loaded on $95,000 strike options for bitcoin to protect against the downside ahead of the week, indicating that expectations of a move lower remain prevalent in the market.

“The desk observed growing interest in the Jan $95,000 strikes as the market scrambled for downside protection after BTC lost momentum during yesterday’s U.S. session,” traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Saturday broadcast.

“With no major catalysts before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market is likely to remain range-bound until there is more clarity on how the recent weak CPI reading has influenced the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions,” QCP added at the time.

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Raydium’s RAY Dives 25% as Pump.Fun Appears to Test Own AMM Exchange

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Solana-based token issuance platform Pump.Fun may soon be launching its own automated market maker (AMM), according to a URL connected to the site. However, there has been no public announcement yet.

AMM is a exchange system in crypto markets that makes trading easy by using a liquidity pool of usually, and at least, two tokens. Instead of matching buyers and sellers like a traditional exchange, smart contracts set the prices based on supply and demand and allow trades to be processed without a counterparty.

The “amm.pump.fun” shows a swap product in the making with a sell and buy option alongside a deposit and withdrawal function. That’s a first for Pump.Fun, which lets anyone issue a token for less than $2 in capital, after which they choose the number of tokens, theme, and meme picture to accompany it.

When the market capitalization of any token reaches $69,000, a portion of liquidity is deposited to the Solana-based exchange Raydium and burned (or when tokens are taken out of supply permanently).

Pump.Fun’s own AMM would mean tokens are no longer migrated to Raydium, or at least that’s what the market thinks, dampening sentiment for the latter’s RAY tokens. RAY is down 25% in the past 24 hours on the apparent development.

“It seems they are planning to have pump tokens graduate to their own pools instead of Raydium,” trader @trenchdiver101, who first flagged the development, said. “They can either extract more fees on Solana or have some mechanism to reward token holders.”

Though a part of Raydium’s total trading activity is derived from Pump.Fun tokens, the exchange supports several other top markets — such as Solana (SOL) to stablecoins and others — contributing to its $500 million in average daily trading volumes.

As such, the product could further bump the revenues and profits of Pump.Fun, which has no token but is among the most profitable crypto applications in the past year — a rare feat in a market where businesses heavily rely on token sales to generate income.

Pump.Fun has pocketed over $550 million in total fees since Mar.2024, data shows, with $2.4 billion in trading volumes over just the past two weeks. Over 8 million tokens have been issued on the platform since its 2024 launch, with a few, such as fartcoin (FART), reaching billions of dollars in market capitalization.

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Solana Whales Increase Engagement in Bearish Options Plays on Deribit Amid SOL Meltdown and Impending Unlock

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Deribit’s options market for Solana’s SOL token has become active, with whales engaging in bearish bets as the token’s price continues to decline ahead of an impending multi-billion dollar unlock.

Last week, SOL block trades totaling $32.39 million in notional value crossed the tape on Deribit, representing nearly 25% of the total options activity of $130.74 million. The remainder of the activity comprised screen trades, according to Amberdata. That’s the second-highest proportion of block trades to total activity on record.

A «block trade» in options refers to a significant, privately negotiated options transaction between two parties involving a large number of contracts. Such trades, typically associated with whale activity, are executed over-the-counter and outside the regular order book and then booked on the exchange, allowing for a minimal impact on the market prices.

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset, in this case, SOL, at a preset price on or before a specific date. A call option gives the right to buy, while a put option provides the right to sell. On Deribit, which accounts for over 85% of the global crypto options activity, one options contract represents 1 SOL.

Last week’s spike in SOL block trades featured a preference for put options, which traders use to hedge against or profit from a potential price slide.

«Nearly 80% of the block-trade volume was concentrated in put contracts. Compared to only 40% puts for BTC and 37.5% puts for ETH during the same timeframe,» Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said.

The whale demand for put options comes as SOL’s outlook appears grim following the 46% price slide to $160 in just over five weeks. The activity on the Solana blockchain, which became a go-to-place for memecoin traders last year, peaked with the launch of the TRUMP token on Jan. 17, three days before Donald Trump was inaugurated as the President of the U.S.

Since then, the number of daily transactions on Solana and the cumulative daily volume on the Solana-based decentralized exchanges has declined significantly, according to data source Artemis. That has weakened the bullish case for SOL.

Plus, the impending SOL token unlock on Jan. 1 presents a significant headwind, per Deribit’s Asia Business Development Head Lin Chen.

«Solana (SOL) will have a major token unlock event on March 1, releasing 11.2 million SOL tokens, valued at approximately $2.07 billion. This represents 2.29% of the total supply. A significant portion of the unlock comes from the FTX estate and a foundation sale,» Chen said.

Chen explained that the large unlock could breed market volatility as it accounts for nearly 59% of SOL’s daily spot trading volume. Hence, its natural to see a lot of hedging flow in put options in anticipation of a potential extended SOL price slide.

«Many traders would also take this opportunity to long Vol[atility] to generate good yield,» Chen noted.

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Bybit Closes ‘ETH Gap’ as Exchange Replenishes $1.4B Hole After Hack

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Bybit has returned to a 1:1 backing of client assets and has fully closed the “ether gap” it faced after an unprecedented $1.4 billion hack hit the exchange late Friday.

The exchange has received 446,870 ether (ETH), worth $1.23 billion at current prices, through loans, large deposits, and ether purchases in the past two days, on-chain tracking service Lookonchain said in an X post on Monday.

Address activity suggests more than $400 million were purchased through over-the-counter trading, with another $300 million brought directly from exchanges. Nearly $300 million were sought as loans; the rest are from addresses apparently belonging to crypto funds.

ETH prices rose upto 4% over the weekend amid the apparent buying activity, but are down 2% in the past 24 hours as sentiment isn’t fully lifted.

Meanwhile, Bybit said late Sunday that all deposit and withdrawal activity had “fully recovered to normal levels — with total deposits “slightly exceeding” withdrawals as on Saturday in a sign of market confidence.

Friday’s attack targeted one of Bybit’s offline “cold” wallets, which are typically considered secure due to their lack of internet connectivity, in a heist that allowed $1.4 billion in ETH to be withdrawn.

Hackers gained control by exploiting a sophisticated method involving a manipulated user interface (UI) and URL. This allowed the attackers to alter the smart contract logic, redirecting the funds to an unidentified address. The stolen assets were then split across multiple wallets and swapped on decentralized exchanges.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT linked the hack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, a state-sponsored hacking collective notorious for crypto thefts. Lazarus was behind several high-profile crypto attacks, including the $600 million Ronin Network hack in 2022, and a $230 million drain on Indian exchange WazirX in 2024.

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