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Prediction Markets Don’t Have a Gambling Problem, Says Crypto Attorney

Singapore and Thailand recently moved to ban Polymarket from their respective jurisdictions, arguing that the site was just another gambling platform.
On the surface, that argument seems logical. Polymarket’s inclusion of sports prediction markets makes it seem like a competitor to licensed sportsbooks around the world.
After all, even prediction market’s harshest critics acknowledge that there’s some kind of value in an investment mechanism to hedge against events like an election, but the outcome of a sporting match just doesn’t have the same material impact as an election or war.
But, beneath the surface, the argument that prediction markets are simply a Web3 version of gambling falls short, argues New York-based crypto attorney Aaron Brogan.
“If you are a state-licensed gambling product, then you are taking one side of the bet. You’re essentially betting against your users,» Brogan said. «You’re booking the bets…and offering certain odds to users. Whether you make money or not depends on the odds you set.”
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, in contrast, act as neutral intermediaries that match trades without taking a side, making money via transaction fees.
«You are not taking a side of the bet as the market in that case, which fundamentally changes the incentives involved and makes the product different in a holistic way,” Brogan said, pointing out that prediction market platforms don’t ban their best users in the same way casinos boot out card counting pros as it kills the house’s mathematical edge.
“Prediction markets aren’t gambling because they’re not structured to be,” Brogan said. “They’re tools for understanding, hedging, and creating public goods. That’s what makes them fundamentally different.”
Getting an online gambling license in the U.S. was a herculean effort, and one might wonder why the new players in the space, like Draft Kings or incumbents like MGM, which followed in opening up online sports betting operations, don’t go after prediction markets at the state level where gambling is regulated.
The key legal distinction, says Brogan, lies in the regulatory framework. In the U.S., prediction markets that are registered as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) fall under federal regulation via the Commodity Exchange Act, which preempts state gambling laws.
“Federal law in the United States preempts state law,” Brogan explained. “The Commodity Exchange Act includes a specific provision that precludes state regulation of federally registered derivatives. If you are federally registered, the states can’t regulate you.»
Kalshi seems to feel confident in this argument, as the prediction market platform, which actively pursued registration with the Commodities Futures and Trading Commission – and fought its initial attempts to block election-related prediction markets – recently launched Super Bowl betting markets.
But this might not work for its competitors.
“Polymarket, for example, is not registered in the United States, so arguably, states could go to its founder and say, ‘You’ve been facilitating sports betting, which is a felony in this state,’ and bring legal action. Registered exchanges, however, don’t face this issue because of their federal status,” Brogan said.
While Polymarket and Kalshi are the two most recognizable names in the space, there are plenty of other new entrants which are following in their footsteps.
One of which is the crypto exchange Crypto.com, which recently launched Crypto.com sports after filing self-certification as a DCM with the CFTC.
The key thing is, Brogan explained, is that if the CFTC does not take action within 24 hours after the self-certification papers are filed, then the applicant can treat that as a green light.
“If these are able to proliferate, and if the CFTC doesn’t take action, which they haven’t done yet, they’re going to end up eating these sportsbooks’ lunch. This is a $21 billion industry, and this new product is going to be way better,” he concludes.
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CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: SUI and POL Rise 7.5%, Leading Index Higher

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2556.62, up 2.1% (+52.39) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
Fifteen of 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: SUI (+7.5%) and POL (+7.5%).
Laggards: FIL (-4.5%) and XLM (-1.6%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
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Dutch Bank ING Said to Be Working on a New Stablecoin With Other TradFi and Crypto Firms

Dutch bank ING is working on a stablecoin, looking to take advantage of Europe’s new cryptocurrency regulations that came into force last year, according to two people with knowledge of the plans.
ING’s stablecoin project could take the form of a consortium effort involving other banks and crypto service providers, both people said.
“ING is working on a stablecoin project with a few other banks. It’s moving slow as multiple banks need board approval to set up a joint entity,” one of the sources said.
ING declined to comment.
Europe’s Markets in Crypto Assets regime [MiCA] requires stablecoin issuers across EU member countries to hold an authorization license, while promoting the potential of euro-denominated stablecoins (the vast majority of the stablecoins in circulation are pegged to the U.S. dollar).
MiCA’s stablecoin rules, which also require issuers to maintain significant reserves in banks based in Europe, have strengthened compliant offerings like Circle’s euro stablecoin EURC over its main rival Tether, according to a note early this year from JPMorgan.
Banks like ING entering the European stablecoin space means French lender Société Générale, the first big bank to offer a stablecoin through its SG Forge innovation division, will soon have some competition.
Read more: Stablecoin Market Could Grow to $2T by End-2028: Standard Chartered
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DAO Infrastructure Provider Tally Raises $8M to Scale On-Chain Governance

Tally, a leader in on-chain governance tooling, has secured $8 million in Series A funding aimed at scaling its governance technology to more crypto-native decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).
Tally is best known for the Tally Protocol, which powers infrastructure to help leading protocols conduct effective on-chain governance of their DAOs, including Arbitrum, Uniswap DAO, ZKsync, Wormhole, Eigenlayer, Obol and Hyperlane.
«We’ve built this complete stack of software for operating these on-chain organizations,» Dennison Bertram, CEO and co-founder of Tally Protocol, said in an interview with CoinDesk. «We can take you from your idea to launching your token, to distributing your membership or ownership, all the way to the value accrual for your protocol.»
The platform began as a DAO governance tool and has evolved into the most widely adopted software stack for on-chain organizations across the Ethereum and Solana blockchains, it said in a release.
«On-chain governance and capital formation could, in theory, dramatically reduce the complexity and cost of forming and operating organizations by moving these processes entirely into software rather than traditional jurisdictions guided by platforms like Tally,» Bertram said.
One day, on-chain organizations might be seen as a way to compete with nation states, he argued, referencing the costly and lawyer-intensive process of registering foundations and other legal entities typically used for crypto.
«Whoever embraces crypto really fully might actually be embracing fully the future,» he said.
Fixing vote turnout for better governance
One issue that Tally aims to tackle with funding from the Series A is low voter participation and apathy in DAO governance, which has led to sometimes controversial outcomes.
Last year, for example, a group of CompoundDAO token holders, called Golden Boys, successfully passed a controversial proposal to create a yield-bearing product called goldCOMP.
Despite initially gaining traction, the proposal faced significant controversy due to perceived irregularities, low voter turnout and a lack of widespread community engagement.
Ultimately, the Golden Boys agreed to cancel goldCOMP, which highlighted the broader issue of governance apathy within DAOs rather than any technical exploit or malicious intent.
«Many of the people that you should expect to vote ‘no’ on something like this didn’t show up,» Bertram said in an earlier interview. «What it shows is that the democratic process of governing a DAO is imperfect and needs improvement.»
To address this, Tally has developed staking mechanisms designed to reward active governance participants economically. Users can stake their governance tokens to receive Tally Liquid Staked Tokens (tLSTs), earning passive, auto-compounding yields while retaining voting rights within DAOs.
“This fundraise is really about leaning into the original vision,” Bertram said. “Now that we’ve proven that this works, that you can have these large organizations, it’s time to really scale it up.”
Institutions are getting involved in DAOs
Bertram also emphasized that recent regulatory clarity and shifts in attitude toward crypto governance in the U.S. have opened the door for increased institutional participation in DAOs.
“With this clarity, we’re going to get a lot more participation, not necessarily from average Joe token holders, but actually from large organizations that depend on the infrastructure they’re building on,” he said. “These organizations are going to need and want the ability to actually govern the infrastructure that they operate on.”
Ultimately, Bertram sees Tally’s role as pivotal in advancing decentralized governance and unlocking greater economic value for token holders by directly rewarding active, informed participants.
«Given the new acceptance of crypto as a key driver of future value in America, it’s time to scale it beyond crypto and make it a core primitive for creating new organizations,” he said.
The round was led by Appworks and Blockchain Capital with participation from BitGo amongst others.
Tally previously raised $7.5 million in 2021 across two funding rounds.
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