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Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Bulls Lose Momentum Before Bessent Confirmation Hearing

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market has had a bullish 24 hours, thanks to Wednesday’s soft U.S. core inflation print that alleviated hawkish Fed concerns. The momentum, however, has slowed.

With the inflation data out of the way, crypto traders are refocusing on President-elect Donald Trump’s swearing-in on Jan. 20 and possible pro-crypto action on the first day. Some expect bitcoin to set new highs by then, while others are penciling in at least 10% price swings in XRP, SOL, ETH and BTC.

On Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. holding BTC as a part of a strategic reserve has increased to 50% for the first time.

Bitwise, a San Francisco-based crypto asset management company, said on X that it provided information about bitcoin ETFs to a nation-state, adding weight to the sovereign BTC adoption narrative.

Speculation is rife that SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda could rekindle crypto policy as early as next week.

That said, don’t overlook the importance and market-moving ability of Treasury nominee Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee that kicks off at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Bessent will likely face scrutiny on various topics, including dollar policy, tariffs and fiscal sustainability.

In released remarks, Bessent said he wants the 2017 tax cuts to become permanent and ensure the dollar remains a dominant global reserve currency. He also said tariffs are a valuable negotiating tool.

According to ING, the dollar could rally if Bessent highlights the supposedly inflationary tariffs as a key tool. A renewed uptick in the currency and Treasury yields may slow BTC’s gains, potentially injecting volatility in risk assets in general. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

Jan. 17: Oral arguments at the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, where the CFTC is appealing the district court’s Sep. 12, 2024 ruling favoring Kalshi’s Congressional Control Contracts.

Jan. 23: First deadline for a decision by the SEC on NYSE Arca’s Dec. 3 proposal to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, as an ETF.

Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC decisions on proposals for four new spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Trust, which are all sponsored by Cboe BZX Exchange.

Macro

Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ended Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 210K vs. Prev. 201K.

Jan. 16, 10:30 a.m.: President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent, will testify before aSenate Committee during his confirmation hearing. Livestream link.

Jan. 17, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases December 2024’s Eurozone inflation data.

Inflation Rate MoM Final Est. 0.4% vs Prev. -0.3%.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.

Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

The Aave community is discussing a strategy to scale its GHO stablecoin by deploying a new revenue stream via bitcoin mining. It would use capital from the GHO treasury to purchase hardware.

Balancer DAO will vote on whether to deploy Balancer v3 on the Arbitrum blockchain. Voting starts Jan. 16 and ends Jan. 20.

Unlocks

Jan. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply, worth $68 million.

Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worth $2.19 billion.

Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating supply worth $76 million.

Token Launches

Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to host token sale followed by five months of points farming.

Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.

Conferences:

Day 11 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum layer 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).

Day 4 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)

Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)

Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)

Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)

Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025

Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.

Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)

Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has experienced a spike in ether (ETH) inflows after a whale deposited $67 million worth of the token on Thursday.

The wallet in question withdrew a total of 217,513 ETH ($350 million) from Kraken and Coinbase over a 10-day period in 2022 at an average price of $1,611. With ether currently trading at $3,330, the trader has made a total profit of $354 million, Lookonchain reports.

Coinbase’s (COIN) derivatives exchange has listed perpetual swap contracts for AERO, BEAM, DRIFT and S. All tokens are up between 4% and 7% respectively.

Artificial intelligence (AI) agent tokens shrugged off last week’s drop with a significant move to the upside. Virtuals protocol (VIRTUAL) is up 31% in the past 24 hours while AI16Z is up 13%, both outperforming the CoinDesk20 (CD20) index which has risen by 5.7% in 24-hours.

Litecoin is also one of the day’s top performers after exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst Eric Balchunas said that the Litecoin S-1 ETF application had received comments back from the SEC, potentially paving the way for a spot LTC ETF.

Derivatives Positioning

LTC has emerged as the best-performing major coin in the past 24 hours, with prices rising by 16%. The surge is accompanied by a 21% increase in futures open interest and a positive Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator, suggesting strong net buying pressure.

HBAR and XRP have seen 10% jumps in open interest with positive CVDs.

Front-end BTC and ETH options no longer show a bias for puts, realigning with bullish long-term sentiment.

Key flows on Deribit and Paradigm featured a BTC bull call spread involving $102K and $110K strikes and a bear call spread in ETH, involving the March 28 expiry options at $3.5K and $4.5K strikes.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.47% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $99,217.43 (24hrs: +0.64%)

ETH is down 2.46% at $3,334.68 (24hrs: +3.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.2% at 3,752.68 (24hrs: +5.68%)

Ether staking yield is down 2 bps at 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.006% (6.52% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at at 109.13

Gold is up 0.94% at $2,737.90/oz

Silver is up 1.85% at $31.90/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.33% to 38,572.60

Hang Seng closed +1.23% at 19,522.89

FTSE is up 0.82% at 8,369.48

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.24% at 5,094.68

DJIA closed on Wednesday +1.65% to 43,221.55

S&P 500 closed +1.84% at 5,949.91

Nasdaq closed +2.45% at 19,511.23

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.82% at 24,789.3

S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.49% at 2,262.81

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 1 bp at 4.67%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 6,009.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 21,504.00

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 43,501.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 57.66

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 801 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $56.8

Total Fees: $739,760/ 7.5 BTC

CME Futures Open Interest: 178,810 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 36.5 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.40%

Technical Analysis

BTC is probing dual resistance at around $100K, marked by the descending trendline from record highs and the Ichimoku cloud.

A breakout may motivate momentum traders to join the market, accelerating price gains.

Crossovers above the cloud are said to represent a bullish shift in momentum.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $360.62 (+5.39%), down 1% at $357 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $274.93 (+7.66%), down 0.53% at $273.48 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.93 (+5%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.15 (+4.55%), down 0.55% at $18.05 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.46 (+%), down 0.52% at $13.39 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.53 (+4.46%), down 0.21% at $14.50 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.2 (+8.21%), down 0.89% at $11.10 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.57 (+6.5%), down 1.14% at $24.29 in pre-market.

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $56.11 (+2.15%), unchanged in pre-market.

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $35.36 (+6.92%), unchanged in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $755.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.48 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.133 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $59.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.477 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.550 million.

Source: Farside Investors as of Jan. 15.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin funding rates on major exchanges, excluding Hyperliquid, remain well below early 2024 levels and the highs seen in December, when the BTC price broke above $100,000 for the first time.

In other words, it’s cheaper to be long right now than last month and a year ago.

While You Were Sleeping

XRP’s Bullish Momentum Strongest Since January 2018 as Futures Open Interest Hits Record High (CoinDesk): XRP has soared 50% this month to over $3, experiencing its strongest rally since 2018.

Monthly Crypto Trading on CEXs Hits All-Time High in December: CCData (Cointelegraph): December set a new record for crypto trading, with $11.3 trillion in spot and derivatives volume on centralized exchanges.

Nomura-Backed Crypto Firm Komainu Raises $75 Million in Bitcoin (Bloomberg): Komainu, a crypto custodian backed by Nomura, secured $75 million in bitcoin from Blockstream to expand globally, adopt tokenization tools, and create a bitcoin treasury.

UK Economy Returns to Growth, Faces Uncertain Outlook (The Wall Street Journal): The U.K. economy inched up 0.1% in November, missing forecasts, as inflation and high borrowing costs strained growth.

Chinese Citizens’ Doubts Grow Over Official Growth Claims (Financial Times): China is set to report 5% growth for 2024, but skepticism abounds as weak consumer demand, layoffs and a real estate slump weigh heavily on investment, consumption and daily life.

Bank of Korea Leaves Rates Unchanged in a Surprise Move, Warns GDP Growth ‘Highly Likely’ to Miss Forecasts (CNBC): South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 3%, surprising analysts expecting a cut, citing economic uncertainty. It warned of weaker growth in 2024 and 2025. Stocks and the won rose following the decision.

In the Ether

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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

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When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.

Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.

Power play

It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.

Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.

However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.

Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.

This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.

Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.

The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.

Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Terraforming AI

Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.

As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»

This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.

Higher returns

In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.

But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.

Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.

A niche industry worth billions

As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.

While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.

With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.

This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.

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Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

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Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics)

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.

The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.

MSTR (TradingView)

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.

US 10-year (TradingView)

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.

A chart of the DXY index

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Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

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Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

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