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Crypto Daybook Americas: XRP, AI Coins Eye Big Moves While Bitcoin in Stasis Ahead of CPI

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The market is about to be hit with the first big U.S. economic event of 2025: December CPI data.
With hawkish Fed fears in the air and bitcoin strengthening its correlation with tech stocks, Wednesday’s report becomes even more significant for the digital assets market. The stalled liquidity inflows through stablecoins have also raised question marks on the sustainability of price recovery from under $90K, and traders are preparing for potential downside volatility by adding short-dated puts.
Here’s what experts are saying about the upcoming event:
QCP Capital
«In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 – suggesting volatility to persist through January.»
Geoffrey Chen, author of the Fidenza Macro blog
«The rising markets in November and the lifting of election uncertainty pushed business confidence higher, resulting in stronger data. The frontloading of goods imports and the raising of prices to get ahead of tariffs may have also contributed to higher PMIs. On top of that, oil has woken up and rallied over 10% from its December levels, reinforcing the stagflation regime. None of this bodes well for CPI tomorrow [Jan. 15] and the FOMC later this month. These risk events may surprise towards hawkish and stagflationary outcomes, putting more pressure on risk assets.”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research
«Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrowing wedge, with several critical catalysts on the horizon. Expectations for a higher CPI number have risen, creating a scenario where a softer-than-expected inflation reading could trigger a bitcoin rally.»
Focus on XRP and AI
XRP surged to $2.90 early today, matching the December high with technical analysis suggesting a continued run higher. Meanwhile, according to Wintermute, dip buyers have been active in AI coins, namely FAI, GRASS, VIRTUAL, Ai16z and TAO.
These coins, therefore, could chalk out bigger gains in case the CPI spurs renewed risk-taking in financial markets.
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 15: Degen liquidity mining airdrop; the last snapshot was taken at the end of Jan. 14 (UTC).
Jan. 15: Mintlayer version 1.0.0 release. The mainnet upgrade introduces atomic swaps, enabling native BTC cross-chain swaps.
Jan. 17: Oral arguments at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, where the CFTC is appealing the district court’s Sep. 12, 2024 ruling favoring Kalshi’s Congressional Control Contracts.
Jan. 23: First deadline for a decision by the U.S. SEC on the proposal filed on Dec. 3, 2024 by NYSE Arca to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, as an ETF.
Jan. 25: First deadline for decisions by the U.S. SEC on the proposals for four new spot solana (SOL) ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF, and VanEck Solana Trust, which are all sponsored by Cboe BZX Exchange.
Macro
Jan. 15, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics released December 2024’s inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Act. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0%.
Inflation Rate MoM Act. 0.3% vs. 0.1%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Act. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.5%.
Inflation Rate YoY Act. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%.
Jan. 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Consumer Price Index Summary.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Jan. 16, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics November 2024’s GDP estimate.
GDP MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.1%.
GDP YoY Prev. 1.3%.
Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending on Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 214K vs. Prev. 201K.
Jan. 17, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases December 2024’s Eurozone inflation data.
Inflation Rate MoM Final Est. 0.4% vs Prev. -0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Compound DAO is discussing strategies to grow its treasury. The proposal seeks $9.5M of ETH and $5M of COMP, which would be used to generate a yield and boost its USDC holdings.
Balancer DAO is discussing deploying the v3 version of its platform on layer-2 network Base. If approved, Balancer expects deployment by the end of January.
Unlocks
Jan. 15: Connex (CONX) to unlock 376% of its circulating supply, worth $84.5 million.
Jan. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply, worth $68 million.
Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worth $2.19 billion.
Token Launches
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) will launch, with 5% of supply going to sENA stakers.
Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to host token sale followed by five months of points farming.
Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.
Conferences:
Day 10 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum layer 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).
Day 3 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
Toshi, a memecoin on layer-2 network Base, has risen by more than 70% in the past 24-hours after it was added to Coinbase’s future listing roadmap. TOSHI’s market cap has now topped $100 million.
Non-fungible token (NFT) trading volume fell by 19% in 2024 compared to the previous year, making it the worst performing year since 2020, a DappRadar report shows.
The Ondo community are bracing for mammoth $2.2 billion token unlock this week as circulating supply is set to jump by 134%. The majority of supply has been allocated to «ecosystem growth,» however $377 million will be distributed to participants of a private sale. Unlocks of this magnitude typically heap pressure on the underlying asset, although a significant increase in short positions could spur a short squeeze, a trend that has been seen since 2023.
Binance Alpha has posted a new batch of projects that are being considered for listing on the exchange. These include VITA, GRIFT, VITA Aimonica, the latter two are AI agent tokens.
Derivatives Positioning
XLM has seen a 27% surge in perpetual futures open interest, the highest among major tokens, with cumulative volume delta pointing to net buying pressure. The combination supports an extension of the past 24 hours’ 11% price rise.
Large positive dealer gamma is seen at $97K, according to Deribit’s options market. Positive gamma means market makers will likely trade against the market direction, arresting price volatility.
In ETH’s case, a large negative gamma is seen closer to its going market rate, suggesting potential for increased price turbulence.
Front-dated risk reversals continue to show bias for BTC, ETH puts.
Notable block flows include a long BTC straddle, involving $97K options expiring on Jan. 24. The strategy profits from a volatility explosion.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $96,951.13 (24hrs: +0.4%)
ETH is down 0.24% to $3,207.75 (24hrs: -0.37%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.88% to 3,546.65 (24hrs: +2.35%)
Ether staking yield is unchanged at 3.12%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0059% (6.49% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.23% to 109.02
Gold is up 1.28% to $2,646.45/oz
Silver is up 2.16% to $30.78/oz
Nikkei 225 closed on Tuesday unchanged at 38,444.58
Hang Seng closed +0.34% at 19,286.07
FTSE is up 0.74% to 8,262.35
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.34% at 4,997.65
DJIA closed +0.52% at 42,518.28
S&P 500 closed +0.11% at 5,842.91
Nasdaq closed -0.23% at 19,044.39
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.21% at 24,588.60
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.69% at 2,207.79
U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 2 bps to 4.77%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.16% to 5,891.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% to 20,965.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.2% at 42,836.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 58.21
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 790 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $55.2
Total Fees: 6.54 BTC/
CME Futures Open Interest: 177,355 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 36.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.26%
Technical Analysis
The above chart shows privacy-focused cryptocurrency’s weekly price changes in a candlestick pattern since late 2020.
XMR recently broke out of a prolonged consolidation/basing pattern and has validated the same with the bullish re-test of the breakout point.
Now, the market may unleash the energy built during consolidation, taking prices higher to resistance at $289, the April 2022 high.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $342.17 (+4.19%), down 0.51% at $340.44 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $255.37 (+1.66%), down 0.17% at $254.93 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.6 (+2.15%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.36 (+0.99%), unchanged in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.24 (+3.99%), down 0.25% at $12.21 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (+2.2%), up 1.51% at $14.12 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.35 (+1.57%), down 0.39% at $10.31 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.07 (+3.83%).
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $54.93 (+4.23%), up 0.31% at $55.10 in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.07 (-1.52%), down 1.66% at $32.52 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: -$209.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.71 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.131 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$39.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.41 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.540 million.
Source: Farside Investors, as of Jan. 14
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Cryptocurrency whales continue to run down their holdings of wrapped bitcoin (WBTC), an Ethereum token intended to represent bitcoin on the Ethereum-based DeFi applications.
The balance held by whales has dropped to 70.33K WBTC, the lowest in over four years.
While You Were Sleeping
Stalled Stablecoin Supply Casts Doubt on BTC’s Bullish Recovery As U.S. Inflation Report Looms (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s recovery above $90,000 hints at bullish potential. However, declining stablecoin inflows signal weaker liquidity, increasing the likelihood of volatility following today’s U.S. retail inflation (CPI) data release.
Thailand Mulls Allowing First Bitcoin ETF in Bid to Boost Sector (Bloomberg): Thailand’s SEC is considering allowing Bitcoin ETFs to boost its digital-assets hub ambitions. Its secretary-general said the country must adapt to growing global cryptocurrency adoption while ensuring investor protections.
Crypto Hedge Funds Had a Great 2024, but Failed To Beat Bitcoin (Bloomberg): Crypto hedge funds gained 40% in 2024, according to the VisionTrack Composite Index, but trailed Bitcoin’s 120% surge to over $100,000. Investor sentiment was boosted by optimism around Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
U.K. Inflation Eases in Boost to Rate-Cut Chances (The Wall Street Journal): U.K. consumer inflation eased to 2.5% year-over-year in December, down from 2.6% in November. The slowdown boosts expectations for further BOE rate cuts, though inflation remains above the 2% target.
South Korean Investigators Arrest Impeached President Yoon in Insurrection Probe (Reuters): Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, the first sitting president arrested, was taken into custody Wednesday on insurrection charges. The Constitutional Court is deliberating whether to uphold his impeachment or reinstate him.
Emerging Market Stocks Slide on Trump Tariff Threats and Strong Dollar (Financial Times): The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, tracking $7.6 trillion in stocks, is down over 10% since Oct. 2, as fears of Trump’s inflationary policies, higher trade tariffs, and rising U.S. Treasury yields drive investor exits.
In the Ether
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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.
Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.
Power play
It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.
Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.
However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.
Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.
This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.
Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.
The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.
Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.
Terraforming AI
Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.
As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»
This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.
Higher returns
In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.
But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.
Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.
A niche industry worth billions
As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.
While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.
With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.
This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.
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Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.
Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.
The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.
Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.
The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.
Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.
Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.
Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.
So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?
To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.
Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag
However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.
Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.
The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.
Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.
Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?
The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.
That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.
Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.
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Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.
The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.
According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.
Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.
The labor market has softened further.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.
Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.
Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.
If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.
Equities are testing record levels.
Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.
The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.
Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.
Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.
Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.
Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.
Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.
Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.
The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.
The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.
Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.
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