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Stalled Stablecoin Supply Casts Doubt on BTC’s Bullish Recovery as U.S. Inflation Report Looms

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) rapid recovery from below $90,000 since Monday hints at bullish prospects. However, one factor casts doubt on the sustainability of these gains, indicating scope for significant downside volatility if the impending U.S. inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected on Wednesday.

That factor is the supply of major stablecoins, which has stalled, indicating the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. Data tracked by Glassnode shows that the supply of the top four stablecoins by market value – USDT, USDC, BUSD and DAI – has stabilized around $189 billion, representing a 30-day net change of just 0.37%.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with values pegged to an external reference like the U.S. dollar. These tokens are widely used to fund cryptocurrency purchases and acted as a safe haven during the 2022 bear market.

The latest slowdown in new liquidity via stablecoins, which suggests a weakened buying environment while heading into the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release, starkly contrasts the expansion of stablecoin liquidity observed during the November-December rally and early last year.

«The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled,» Glassnode said in a Telegram note.

The data due at 13:30 UTC Wednesday is expected to show the cost of living rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching November’s pace. The year-on-year figure is seen printing at 2.9%, up from November’s 2.75. The core figure, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.

An above-forecast headline/core figure will likely bolster recent concerns about the central bank being less aggressive in cutting interest rates than expected. These concerns, bolstered by Friday’s blowout jobs report, were partly responsible for BTC falling below $90,000 on Monday.

The latest drying up of stablecoin liquidity, often touted as dry powder waiting to be deployed for crypto purchases, starkly contrasts the $27.3 billion in inflows registered in November and December that partly greased the BTC bull run from $70,000 to over $108,000.

Meanwhile, a much lesser stablecoin inflow of $14.68 billion was seen during the first quarter of 2024, when prices rose nearly 70% to over $70,000.

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BNB Hovers Above $648 as Maxwell Hard Fork Upgrade Set to Double Block Production Speed

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BNB BNB traded in a narrow range on Sunday, reflecting resilience amid low volatility as the BNB Chain community gears up for a significant infrastructure upgrade, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The Maxwell hard fork upgrade scheduled for June 30 is poised to enhance the performance of the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet by cutting block times from 1.5 seconds to 0.75 seconds—doubling the chain’s throughput potential.

This upgrade builds on earlier milestones like the Lorentz fork, which reduced block time from 3 seconds and introduced enhanced network stability. Maxwell moves BSC into sub-second block speeds, helping it compete more directly with faster chains such as Solana.

The hard fork will be powered by three protocol improvement proposals: BEP-524, BEP-563 and BEP-564. These measures overhaul key components of validator coordination and consensus mechanics. Notably, validators will now serve longer block proposal turns (16 blocks per turn), and the epoch length is being extended from 500 to 1,000 blocks — changes expected to stabilize performance even under accelerated conditions.

To avoid network congestion and excessive state growth, the per-block gas limit will be halved from 70 million to 35 million. Improvements on the networking side are also expected, with faster block propagation among validators — within 400 milliseconds —and improved range synchronization for lagging nodes.

Named after physicist James Clerk Maxwell, the upgrade is designed to balance speed with stability, aiming to elevate BNB Chain’s standing across DeFi, GameFi, and enterprise blockchain sectors. By delivering more responsive block finality and smoother validator participation, the Maxwell hard fork could help drive future adoption and developer growth across the ecosystem.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Between June 28 15:00 UTC and June 29 14:00 UTC, BNB climbed from $646.29 to $650.25, a 0.61% gain with a $5.75 (0.89%) trading range.
  • The price found key support at $647.11 during the 02:00 UTC hour on June 29, with above-average volume of 10,034 units.
  • Resistance emerged at $651.30 during the 12:00 UTC hour, capping further gains.Notable volume spikes at 07:00 and 09:00 UTC (18,696 and 22,494 units, respectively) confirmed persistent buyer interest above $648.
  • From 13:05 to 14:04 UTC on June 29, BNB dipped slightly from $650.85 to $650.25, posting a 0.09% intraday loss.
  • Price briefly hit a session peak of $651.07 at 13:23 UTC before rejecting lower, with a volume spike of 957.81 units at 13:25 UTC.
  • As of 21:24 UTC, BNB traded at $648.37, paring earlier gains and holding below resistance near the $651 level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Ondo Finance: ‘2025 Will Be the Year of Tokenized Stocks’

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Ondo (ONDO) ONDO rose 1.5% to $0.7671 over the past 24 hours, holding near recent highs after a week of gains, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The move comes roughly two weeks after Ondo Finance disclosed a new industry collaboration focused on setting standards for tokenized securities.

In a June 17 blog post, the firm announced the creation of the Global Markets Alliance, a group of wallets, exchanges, and custodians working together to improve interoperability, investor protections, and access to tokenized real-world assets. Participants include the Solana Foundation, BitGo, Fireblocks, Jupiter, 1inch, Trust Wallet, Bitget Wallet, Rainbow Wallet, and Alpaca.

The announcement comes ahead of Ondo’s planned launch of Ondo Global Markets, a platform aimed at allowing crypto wallets and applications to offer tokenized exposure to U.S. publicly traded securities, such as stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds, for users based outside the U.S. According to the company, the initiative is intended to reduce frictions associated with traditional capital market infrastructure and broaden global access.

Each member of the alliance is contributing in a different capacity. Wallet providers like Trust Wallet and Rainbow Wallet are integrating Ondo’s tokenized asset standards, while exchanges such as Jupiter and aggregators like 1inch are expected to support programmatic access to tokenized assets. BitGo and Fireblocks are providing institutional custody and infrastructure, and Alpaca is handling brokerage and regulatory services tailored to tokenized securities.

The firm said the group will work to align technical and compliance standards for tokenized securities, improve cross-platform access and liquidity, and support use cases such as self-custody and onchain trading. While the alliance has not committed to a specific timeline, its members have framed the initiative as part of a longer-term shift toward integrating traditional financial products into blockchain-based systems.

In a post on X dated June 28, Ondo Finance wrote that “2025 will be the year of tokenized stocks,” indicating the team’s belief that adoption of tokenized financial instruments may accelerate in the coming quarters.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • Between June 28 15:00 UTC and June 29 14:00 UTC, ONDO rose from $0.749 to $0.769, a 2.67% gain within a 3.33% trading range.
  • Strong support was confirmed at $0.755 with high volume during the 21:00 UTC hour on June 28.
  • Key resistance at $0.765 was broken during the 00:00 UTC hour on June 29, when volume spiked to 8.9 million.
  • From 13:05 to 14:04 UTC on June 29, ONDO fell slightly from $0.773 to $0.769, a 0.58% drop, with notable selling at 13:33 UTC.
  • A temporary support level formed at $0.768 as multiple recovery attempts above $0.769 failed in the final minutes.
  • Price action during the final hour formed a descending channel with lower highs, but the last candle hinted at potential reversal.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

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Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.

June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.

COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.

The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.

Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.

The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.

Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.

Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.

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