In the crypto market, bold predictions aren’t just talk — they’re backed by real dollars, often through option plays that resemble lottery tickets offering outsized upside for relatively small costs.

The stand-out as of writing is the Deribit-listed $300,000 strike bitcoin call option expiring on June 26. Theoretically, this call is a bet that BTC’s spot price will triple to over $300,000 by the end of the first half of the year.

Over 5,000 contracts were active in the June $300K call at press time, with a notional open interest of $484 million. That makes it the second-most popular option bet in the crucial June expiry, trailing only the $110K call.

Deribit is the world’s leading crypto options exchange, accounting for over 75% of the global options activity. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 BTC. Quarterly expiries, such as the one due on June 26, drive heightened market activity and volatility, with traders using these deadlines to hedge positions, lock in gains, or speculate on the next price moves.

«Perhaps, people like buying lottery tickets. As evidenced by the call skew, there are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge,» Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at crypto market maker GSR, said, explaining the high open interest in the so-called out-of-the-money (OTM) call at the $300K strike.

Deep OTM calls, also called wings, require a large move in the underlying asset’s price to become profitable and, hence, are significantly cheaper compared to those closer to or below the asset’s going market rate. However, the payoff is huge if the market rallies, which makes them similar to buying lottery tickets with slim odds but potential for a big payout.

Deribit’s BTC options market has experienced similar flows during previous bull cycles, but those bets rarely gained enough popularity to rank as the second-most preferred play in quarterly expiries.

The chart shows that the June 26 expiry is the largest among all settlements due this year, and the $300K call has the second-highest open interest buildup in the June expiry options.

Explaining the chunky notional open interest in the $300K call, GSR’s Trader Simranjeet Singh said, «I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto and the ‘wingy possibility’ (no pun intended) of a BTC strategic reserve that was punted around at the start of the administration.»

On Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis said in a speech that she’s «particularly pleased with President Trump’s support of her BITCOIN Act.

«The BITCOIN Act is the only solution to our nation’s $36T debt. I’m grateful for a forward-thinking president who not only recognizes this, but acts on it,» Lummis said on X.

Who sold $300K calls?

According to Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, notable selling in the $300K call expiring on June 26 occurred in April as part of the covered call strategy, which traders use to generate additional yield on top of their spot market holdings.

«My thought is that the selling volume on April 23 came from traders generating income against a long position,» Magadini told CoinDesk. «Each option sold for about $60 at 100% implied volatility.»

Selling higher strike OTM call options and collecting premium while holding a long position in the spot market is a popular yield-generating strategy in both crypto and traditional markets.

Read more: Bitcoin May Evolve Into Low-Beta Equity Play Reflexively, BlackRock’s Mitchnik Says

Adopting Michael Saylor’s strategy of buying for the balance sheet has clearly taken off among many publicly traded firms, substantially enriching their stock prices and shareholders.

But what does it mean for the future of the bitcoin price? NYDIG Research crunched the numbers, and the results are striking.

«If we apply a 10x «money multiplier»—a rule of thumb reflecting the historical impact of new capital on bitcoin’s market cap—and divide by the total supply of bitcoin, we arrive at a rough estimate of the potential price impact: a nearly $42,000 increase per bitcoin,» NYDIG said in a research report.

To reach this conclusion, the analysts at NYDIG reviewed Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet (3350), Twenty One (CEP), and Semler Scientific’s (SMLR) cumulative equity valuation since they adopted the bitcoin buying strategy. This gave the analysts an outline of how much money they could theoretically raise by issuing shares at current stock prices to buy more bitcoin.

If this analysis comes true, the projected price is nearly a 44% increase from the current spot price of $96,000 per bitcoin. If capitalized, Wall Street money managers perhaps wouldn’t mind showing this PnL chart to their clients, especially given the current volatility and uncertainty in the market.

«The implication is clear: this ‘dry powder’ in the form of issuance capacity could have a significant upward effect on bitcoin’s price,» NYDIG Research said.

Bitcoin’s limited supply also bodes well for the analysis. Publicly-traded companies already hold 3.63% of bitcoin’s total supply, with the lion’s share of those coins being held by Strategy. Adding private company and government holdings, the total is at 7.48% according to BitcoinTreasuries data.

Demand could also grow further in the near future if the U.S. government finds “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin” for its strategic bitcoin reserve.

Read more: Cantor Skyrockets 130% as Traders FOMO Into the Stock on Bitcoin SPAC Frenzy

The gold market is seeing a shift in activity, with central bank buying slowing and demand from exchange-traded funds and gold-backed cryptocurrencies growing. The latter recently moved to a three-year high, as measured by the net minting volume for tokens backed by the precious metal.

Over $80 million worth of these tokens were minted over the past month, according to data from rwa.xyz. That boost helped push the sector’s market cap up 6% to $1.43 billion. Meanwhile, monthly transfer volume rose 77% to $1.27 billion, marking a sharp resurgence of interest in digital representations of the precious metal.

The rise in token activity mirrors a broader trend in the gold market.

The World Gold Council’s latest report shows that total gold demand in the first quarter of the year reached 1,206 tonnes—a 1% year-over-year increase and the strongest first quarter since 2016. The surge came despite a slowdown in central bank purchases, which fell to 244 tonnes, down from 365 tonnes in the fourth quarter.

Gold ETFs played a central role in the shift. Investment demand has more than doubled to 552 tonnes, suggesting investors are moving into the precious metal, a move central banks are known for historically.

Those inflows helped push the average quarterly price of gold to a record $2,860 per ounce, up 38% from the previous year. Yet the price dipped 2.35% last week, after rising 23.5% year-to-date, while risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, rose. Spot gold is currently trading at $3,240.

While traditional gold demand, such as jewelry, saw a downturn—dropping to pandemic-era lows—bar and coin demand stayed elevated, especially in China.

Read more: Tokenized Gold Surges Above $2B Market Cap as Tariff Fears Spark Safe Haven Trade