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Bitcoin Gives Up Gains Post New Year-Spiral, But $120K Bets Still Remain Hot

The new year kicked off on a happy note with bitcoin (BTC) moving towards $100,000, putting behind the weak price of December. Amid the cheer, CoinDesk warned against being too optimistic, noting the undercurrents of sellers looking to reassert themselves.
A week later, BTC has pulled back to $93,000 after failing to keep gains above $100,000 on Monday, CoinDesk data show.
The latest downturn comes at a time of increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, where long-term yields have extended the Q4 2024 rally to hit multi-month highs due to economic data pointing to stubborn inflation in the U.S.
It is not just nominal bond yields, the real or inflation-adjusted yields are creeping up too. The yield on the 10-year U.S. inflation-indexed security has jumped to 2.29%, the highest since November 2023, according to charting platform TradingView.
When the yield offered by fixed-income products starts to look more attractive in real terms, the incentive to invest in risk assets diminishes. It’s particularly true when the uptick in the yield is driven by hawkish Fed expectations rather than economic growth.
That’s precisely the case this week. With data pointing to sticky inflation, traders have pushed the timing of the next Fed rate cut to June.
«This morning’s slide in the spot bitcoin price appears to be in response to higher yields in the Treasury market and the reduced likelihood of further rate cuts this year. This has impacted the short-term market outlook for crypto assets, which tend to fare better in more liquid conditions, «Thomas Erdosi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.
Note that the yield spike is not just a U.S.-centric issue. Yields are spiking across the major economies with Japan and the U.K. joining the fray. The U.K. is experiencing its highest long-end yields since 1998.
All this is impacting stocks, similar to what’s happening with BTC. Major indices like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have also lost their New Year gains.
But here is a twist: Despite the macro uncertainties, BTC’s Deribit-listed options market remains optimistic, with the dollar value of active calls tallying $14.87 billion at press time, nearly twice the value of active puts, according to data source Amberdata.
A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market while a put buyer is bearish.
Moreover, the $120,000 strike call option remains the most popular, with a notional open interest of $1.47 billion. Calls at strikes $101,000 and $110,000 also boast an open interest of over $1 billion each. Meanwhile, the most popular put option at $75,000 has an open interest of $595 million.
Overall, calls expiring after January continue to trade at a notable premium to puts, reflecting a bullish bias.
«We could potentially see a change in market fortunes by the end of this month. The inauguration of President Trump on Jan. 20, heralding an increased likelihood of a much more favorable regulatory environment for crypto, could be a key driver in crypto market sentiment,» Erdosi added.
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Michael Saylor’s Strategy Adds Another 22K Bitcoin for $1.92B

The Strategy (MSTR) bitcoin (BTC) acquisition machine continued to roll on last week.
The company added 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion, or an average price of $86,969 each, per a Monday morning filing. Total holdings are now 528,185 bitcoin purchased for $35.63 billion, or an average price of $67,458 each.
At the current price around $82,000, those holdings are worth more than $43 billion.
This latest purchase appeared to be funded mostly by additional common share issuance, a total of $1.2 billion worth in the week ended March 30, according to the filing. Strategy also tapped its STRK preferred share ATM for $18.52 million during the week.
The company additionally closed on its STRF preferred share offering last week, raising $711.2 million.
MSTR is lower by 4% premarket alongside bitcoin’s roughly 3% decline in price since the Friday close of the stock market.
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It’s Back to Bitcoin for Darknet Markets After Monero’s Binance Delisting: Chainalysis

Darknet markets are increasingly returning to bitcoin (BTC) as their primary cryptocurrency because of rising liquidity and accessibility challenges associated with privacy-focused coins like monero (XMR), according to Eric Jardine, cybercrime research lead at Chainalysis.
«After major exchanges delisted XMR, we observed a significant increase in bitcoin inflows,» Jardine said in an interview with CoinDesk. «Reduced accessibility is steering users back toward bitcoin.»
Many Western markets on the darknet — a part of the internet hosted within an encrypted network and accessible only through specialized anonymity-providing tools — had either fully moved to monero or operated with it in parallel with bitcoin before the delistings. XMR dropped off after it was removed from major exchanges.
OKX removed XMR and other privacy-focused tokens including dash (DASH) and ZCash (ZCH) at the end of 2023. Binance announced in February 2024 that it planned to de-list monero.
«When a coin or token no longer meets this standard, or the industry changes, we conduct a more in-depth review and potentially delist it,» Binance said at the time.
On-chain data from BitInfoCharts shows that the daily number of monero transactions has halved from this time last year.
«In order to be an effective kind of medium of exchange, you need a certain amount of liquidity and a certain amount of accessibility,» Jardine said.
Jardine emphasized that illicit cryptocurrency transactions represent only a minor share of total crypto activity.
«Typically, illicit transactions constitute at or below 1% of total crypto activities. While addressing these issues is essential, broadly labeling crypto negatively is inaccurate and counterproductive.»
Chainalysis data shows that about 0.14% of all transactions in crypto, some $50 billion, involve illicit activity, with a rise in stablecoins as an illicit payment mechanism.
The stablecoin issuers are fighting back, with the Tron-led T3 Financial Crime Unit, a group comprising of Tron, USDT-issuer Tether and TRM Labs freezing over $100 million in illict funds.
Jardine also noted that law-enforcement agencies prioritize darknet markets primarily based on their scale and involvement in the fentanyl trade.
Its presence significantly escalates the likelihood of a darknet market attracting law enforcement attention, he said, because fighting the drug is a priority for international law enforcement.
«Markets have sort of varying levels of sensitivity to fentanyl-related sales,» he said. «Some claim they don’t do it, then don’t police vendors; some claim they don’t do it, but then they do. Some will be selling precursor products but not finished products.»
Indeed, one of the most recent darknet market busts was the Nemesis online market. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) specifically cited the market’s role in the fentanyl trade as a reason for the bust.
And, as a result, OFAC sanctioned a number of crypto wallets tied to its operator, Behrouz Parsarad: 44 BTC addresses and 5 XMR wallets.
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Archax Buys FINRA-Regulated Broker Dealer to Offer Tokenized Assets in the U.S.

Archax, a U.K.-regulated crypto exchange and custodian focusing on tokenized assets, has acquired a U.S. broker-dealer in an effort to enter the booming institutional market in the country after recent positive changes on the regulatory environment.
Globacap Private Markets Inc, a broker-dealer and alternative trading system (ATS) regulated by FINRA and the Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC), is being bought by Archax and being renamed to Archax Markets US.
The new entity will serve as the company’s foothold on American soil and serve the institutions and professional investors in the country, two Archax executives told CoinDesk.
Asset tokenization is a fast-growing sector in crypto as global banks, asset managers and digital asset firms are increasingly using blockchain rails to move traditional financial instruments. They do so to achieve operational efficiencies and speedier,around-the-clock settlements.
Just in the past weeks, asset manager Fidelity Investments filed to launch a tokenized money market fund and is reportedly working on issuing a stablecoin.
Derivatives exchange CME Group started tokenization tests with Google Cloud with plans to launch new services next year, while the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company partnered with Circle to explore services built on USDC stablecoin and tokenized fund USYC.
Archax specializes in the issuance, custody, and trading of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), including money market funds, corporate bonds, carbon credits and uranium. For example, Archax’s recently-issued tokenized Treasury fund on XRP Ledger with asset manager Abrdn saw $45 million in deposits to become a top 10 product by assets under management, rwa.xyz data shows.
Archax has been exploring entering the U.S. market over the past years, but stayed on the sideline due to regulatory uncertainty, Graham Rodford, CEO of Archax, said in an interview with CoinDesk.
«Under this new administration, which seems to be more crypto positive, we are getting more interest from the U.S. as well, which obviously we can’t easily serve from the UK, so it makes sense for us strategically to go there,» Rodford said.
Archax also plans to expand its offerings to tokenized U.S. equities and bonds, building on its existing partnerships across several blockchains including Ethereum, Polygon, Solana, Hedera Hashgraph and XRP Ledger.
The firm’s U.S. entrance follows the recent purchase of a Spanish brokerage firm to expand services to the European Union, pending regulatory approvals.
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