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Bitcoin’s Potential ‘Head and Shoulders’ Pattern Points to a Sell-Off to $75K: Godbole

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After rallying over 50% since early November, bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, looks to be carving out a pattern. If completed, this could see prices revisit the mid-$70Ks.

BTC’s price action since late November has evolved into what technical analysts call a “head and shoulders” (H&S) pattern, which foreshadows a bullish-to-bearish trend change. The first failed attempt to scale the $100,000 mark in November marked the first shoulder.

That was followed by the head, marking a swift retreat to $92,000 from the record high of over $108,000 in the second half of December. Meanwhile, the 5% drop to nearly $97,000 hints at the formation of a right shoulder.

If the sell-off persists and prices fall below the neckline – the horizontal trendline connecting the troughs of the two shoulders – the bearish head-and-shoulders reversal pattern would be confirmed. As of writing, the so-called neckline support was seen around $91,500.

A break below this level could pave the way for a dip to roughly $75,000, with this figure determined using the measured move method. The method measures the vertical distance from the highest point of the head to the neckline and then subtracts the same from the neckline price point to arrive at a potential downside target.

In technical analysis, traders examine charts for price patterns to predict future price movements. However, caution is warranted while trading such patterns as these can fail, trapping traders on the wrong side of the market.

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Argentina’s Congress Launches Probe Into LIBRA Fiasco

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Argentina’s lower house of Congress has approved a series of measures aimed at probing the LIBRA cryptocurrency that rocked the country after being promoted by President Javier Milei earlier this year.

In a special session called by the “Democracy Forever” bloc, deputies passed three resolutions: the formation of an investigative commission, the summons of top government officials, and a formal request for information from the executive branch.

Among those summoned are Chief of Cabinet Guillermo Francos, Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona and the head of the National Securities Commission, Roberto Silva, according to the official release from the Chamber of Deputies in Argentina. The resolutions passed with a comfortable majority but faced strong opposition, revealing a split across party lines.

“The time has come for Congress to audit whether there is any harm to Argentina: we have a commitment to the truth,” said Deputy Pablo Juliano, one of the initiative’s backers. Others, like Deputy Nicolás Mayoraz of the ruling La Libertad Avanza (LLA), pushed back, accusing lawmakers of assuming “powers that belong solely to the Judiciary” and politicizing the issue.

From the Civic Coalition, Deputy Maximiliano Ferraro said that society “has the right to know the truth” and that Congress’ duty was to “demand and investigate it.” Ruling party bloc leader Gabriel Bornoroni, at the close of the debate, suggested opposition lawmakers were “putting on a show.”

“I think it bothers them that we had a fiscal surplus throughout 2024 and that we’ll have one this year too — and that inflation continues to fall every month,” Bornoroni said. The LIBRA memecoin fiasco, research shows, destroyed over $250 million in investor wealth.

The token’s price surged shortly after being launched in early February after Milei promoted the project on X, saying it would “focus on encouraging the growth of the Argentine economy, funding small businesses, and Argentine ventures.»

Milei’s promotion saw various crypto addresses move in, allowing insiders to offload massive amounts of tokens on these investors to the point the token’s market capitalization then endured a 90% drop.

Disclaimer: Information gathered for this article was translated with the use of artificial intelligence.

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Kalshi Will Win Battle with Nevada: Crypto Attorney

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The American legal tradition of federalism, balancing state authority with federal control, is being tested by a new frontier: online prediction markets.

At the center of everything is Donald Trump Jr., advised Kalshi. Nevada and New Jersey have issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi over the prediction market’s sports contracts, claiming they violate state gambling laws.

But Kalshi has hit back, arguing that what it offers isn’t gambling and that it’s regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Commodities Exchange Act as it is a prediction market, not a gambling venue – an argument that crypto attorney Aaron Brogan says should be an easy win in court.

«I think clearly Kalshi is going to win these cases,» Brogan said in an interview with CoinDesk. «If you look at the language of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), it says that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over any contracts that fall within its regulatory purview, which derivative contracts and event contracts clearly do.»

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate as neutral intermediaries, matching orders just like any other exchange under CFTC purview. There’s no sportsbook with a prediction market; the operator of the market doesn’t bet against its users.

For prediction market operators, sports has been a significant growth area. Data from Polymarket Analytics shows the category has surpassed the 2024 election for volume.

«[Kalshi is] not taking a side of the bet as the market in that case, which fundamentally changes the incentives involved and makes the product different in a holistic way,” Brogan explained.

Kalshi has self-certified these event contracts with the CFTC, a process allowing federally regulated derivatives exchanges to list new products by attesting their compliance with regulatory requirements without needing explicit pre-approval from the agency.

For its part, the CFTC seems to be receptive to the argument that the outcomes of sports games are commodities, with President Donald Trump’s pick to run the commission, Brian Quintenz, arguing in 2021 that they can serve a legitimate economic purpose as hedging instruments, distinct from pure betting activities, and thus should not automatically be prohibited under the CEA.

Brogan recognizes the reasoning behind Nevada’s concerns, given the state’s historical reliance on gambling revenues.

However, he points out that Nevada’s actions against Kalshi could inadvertently raise serious questions about the legitimacy of Nevada’s own gambling markets.

By categorizing Kalshi’s federally regulated event contracts as gambling, Nevada regulators have unintentionally highlighted that their own state-approved gambling operations, such as sports betting markets and other event-based wagering, might themselves technically qualify as derivative contracts.

“In that case, federal preemption could theoretically crowd out state authority to oversee those gambling markets at all,” said Brogan.

A victory for Kalshi, said Brogan, could transform American sports betting culture entirely if it’s done through prediction markets instead of traditional gambling companies.

Brogan notes that if Kalshi prevails, states could respond politically or legally, possibly lobbying Congress or filing an Administrative Procedure Act claim against the CFTC, although he doubts such challenges would succeed.

Ultimately, Kalshi’s litigation against state regulators presents a landmark federalism dilemma: Can states retain traditional authority over gambling regulation, or will federal regulatory frameworks dominate in the digital age?

«This is incredibly complicated,» Brogan concluded, «and we’re right on the cusp of litigation that could definitively define who will predominate. It’s complex, but it’s going to be really important.»

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Ripple, Solana, Cardano: How Will Trump Tariffs Impact Their Tokens?

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Majors XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) are each seeing a roughly 6% price slump in the past 24 hours amid broader macroeconomic pressures.

Recent market narratives show uncertainty around U.S. policies, including tariffs and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance with fewer expected rate cuts in 2025, providing the fundamental backdrop for a move further lower in crypto majors.

Here’s what technical analysis and price-action indicate for these tokens in the near term.

XRP Price Analysis

XRP, the token closely related to payments firm Ripple Labs, is below critical support levels with the next support threshold around the $1.60 mark. High leverage in XRP trading positions, as Coinglass data shows, hints at potential for more downward pressure before any recovery.

A potential double bottom pattern has formed near $1.80; the overall market structure remains bearish despite modest recovery attempts from the $1.60-$1.70 range.

Technical indicators show deeply oversold conditions with RSI at 22.41, while the MACD and Chaikin Money Flow (-0.17) signal strong bearish momentum as money flows out of the asset.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.91 is currently acting as a pivotal point for a potential trend reversal in the near term.

Price action shows a series of lower highs from the $2 support zone. A bullish divergence has formed on lower timeframes, suggesting stabilization. This will now act as a resistance level after previously being a critical support level.

Momentum indicators have shifted from bearish to neutral in recent trading. RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a reversal if bullish momentum builds. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing a downward bias unless a reversal signal emerges.

SOL Price Analysis

SOL is down over 8% in a week and in a crucial support zone between $100 and $110. The current slump suggests it may be revisiting these levels or even lower, with thin liquidity below $100 potentially leading to a sharper fall toward as low as $50.

SOL experienced a dramatic 22% drop from $122.75 to $95.72 between April 5-7, with partial recovery establishing a new trading range between $103-$112.

Major Solana whales unstaked and dumped significant holdings, with one transaction worth approximately $30 million coinciding with a $200 million token unlock event.

Needs to reclaim $112 to target $120; failure could see a drop to $96. The RSI is consistently below 40, indicating strong bearish momentum and oversold conditions.

MACD shows bearish crossovers, aligning with a downward trend. Price is below key moving averages ($130.5 and $184.2), reinforcing bearish bias.

Technical structure suggests more downside risk unless $112 is reclaimed.

ADA Price Analysis

ADA has similarly declined by about 6% in the past 24 hours and down over 23% in the past two weeks.

Daily RSI is at 32, suggesting ADA is nearing oversold territory (typically below 30) but still has room for further downside before a potential reversal. This indicates bearish momentum persists, though exhaustion may be nearing.

ADA is trading below its 21-day moving averages on a daily timeframe, confirming a bearish trend.

However, ADA is currently within a falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. This is typically a bullish reversal pattern, with a dip to 60 cents– 61 cents expected before a potential sharp upward reversal, possibly forming a bear trap.

Outlook

For XRP, watch $1.62 as a pivotal support; a break below could see it target $1 or lower, while a bounce might signal a short-term relief rally. SOL’s fate hinges on holding $100—failure here could accelerate losses, but oversold conditions might spark a rebound if macro pressures ease. ADA bulls needs to defend its current range to avoid a slide toward 55 cents.

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