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Why Ether Could Outperform Bitcoin in 2025

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Ether spent most of 2024 trailing behind its cryptocurrency peers but has now firmly joined the rally sparked by bitcoin’s record-breaking climb, crossing the $4,000 mark in December but well below its all time high of $4,900.

In 2024, ether gained around 53% compared to bitcoin’s 113% surge; however, ether’s recent performance shows promise. Since the U.S. election result, ether has increased 39%, outperforming bitcoin’s 35% gain and signaling a potential resurgence driven by market optimism over president-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated pro-crypto policies.

Other key factors driving this optimism include robust staking dynamics, steady transaction fees and growing institutional interest, particularly through ETFs.

Ether futures

While the year started with muted volume, CME ether futures were the go-to product for risk management as spot ether ETFs began trading mid-year and volatility returned to the market toward year-end. In 2024, nearly 12 million contracts representing a total value of $256 billion traded between ether and micro ether futures. Thirty-nine percent of notional volume traded was transacted in Q4 2024 as the crypto markets reacted to the U.S. election results, signaling a buoyant sentiment.

Large open interest holders (designated by the CFTC as entities holding 25 or more contracts) reached new weekly records throughout December, indicating growing client interest in regulated solutions to manage ether risk.

Ether-bitcoin ratio

The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures ether’s performance relative to bitcoin and shows the number of bitcoin needed to buy one ether, reached its lowest level since launch on Nov 20 of 0.032857, which may be its bottom as we see improved regulatory outlook and an increase in institutional adoption.

What’s behind ether’s rebound

1. Ether ETFs outperform bitcoin ETFs

U.S. spot ETH ETFs have received a cumulative $577 million in net inflows since their July 2024 launch, an overall success among the broad ETF universe. Between November 25 and November 29, spot ether ETFs even surpassed the daily inflows of bitcoin ETFs, with ether ETFs experiencing a net inflow of $467 million (including net inflows of $428 million in a single day), marking a shift in investor sentiment.

The approval of both bitcoin and ether ETFs represents a major milestone in the mainstream adoption of digital assets. Looking ahead, the interest of institutional investors could rise even further if regulatory approval allows asset managers to incorporate Ethereum staking yields into ETFs.

2. Alt Season

After months of ether underperforming bitcoin, traders may now see the ETH/BTC ratio’s lower level as an opportunity with a potential gradual rotation from BTC to ETH and other alt coins.

Typically, bitcoin leads the rally, then consolidates as ether and other alt coins catch up. This has been true this cycle where bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 61.7% in October to 57.4% in November and to 56.5% in December, suggesting that altcoins may have begun gaining momentum for a potential alt season.

3. Staking yields

Ether investors can generate extra returns on top of their holdings by staking or locking their coins in the network in return for rewards. As of the time of writing, 28% of ether’s supply is locked in staking contracts with the annualized reward rate averaging 3%. Under a new administration, together with anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continued upgrades to the blockchain, there could be an uptick in ETH’s staking yield.

4. DeFi, smart contracts, DAPPS and NFTs

Ethereum’s value proposition extends beyond being a digital currency, as it remains the dominant blockchain for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications (DAPPS), smart contract platforms, NFT (non-fungible token) tokenized assets and Web3 applications.

The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi projects has grown over the past few weeks, reaching $69.4 billion, according to DefiLlama. The surge suggests rising confidence in Ethereum as a platform for financial innovation.

5. Ether upgrades

On March 24, Ethereum implemented the Dencun upgrade, which reduced transaction costs for Layer 2’s and increased the Transactions per Second (TPS) at which they could post to the Layer 1. The adoption of Layer 2’s has shifted noticeably over the last year. In addition, the Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, is one of the largest hard forks ever in terms of the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) count. It aims to improve protocol efficiency, enhance the user experience and expand data capacity, as well as pave the way for future scalability enhancements.

Conclusion

All eyes are on what the Trump administration will bring and the implications for the entire crypto market. The growing interest of institutions in ether ETFs could signify a diversification of institutional portfolios, which were once largely focused on bitcoin. The possibility of staking rewards and ether’s central role in DeFi and NFT innovations in 2025 may bring even more demand for ether.

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Tesla Reports $951M in Crypto Holdings as it Misses Earnings

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Tesla (TSLA) still holds almost $1 billion in bitcoin, according to the automaker’s latest earnings report.

The electric vehicle firm reported digital asset holdings worth $951 million as of March 31, down from $1.076 billion on Dec. 30. Tesla currently holds 11,509 bitcoin in its balance sheet, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.

The change is almost certainly due to bitcoin’s price depreciating between the two quarters. Data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that Tesla did not perform any transactions in the last three months. Arkham marks Tesla’s holdings as being currently worth $1.049 billion.

A new rule from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) requires corporate holders of digital assets to begin marking those assets to market each quarter.

Tesla also reported $19.34 billion in revenue for the first quarter of the year; analysts had expected the carmaker to rake in $21.37 billion.

The TSLA shares were up more than 2% in after-hours trading.

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Bitcoin Tops $91K as Trade Optimism Fuels Crypto Rally But Demand Headwinds Remain

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Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $91,000 on Tuesday, climbing nearly 5% amid renewed investor optimism and fresh hopes of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, but headwinds persist that could cap further upside, analytics firm CryptoQuant cautioned.

The largest crypto by market capitalization hit $91,700 in the U.S. afternoon, its strongest price since early March. Altcoins followed BTC higher, with Ethereum’s ether (ETH) rising 8% over the past 24 hours above $1,700, and dogecoin (DOGE) and Sui’s native token (SUI) gaining 8.6% and 11.7%, respectively. The broad-market crypto benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index advanced 5.2%.

CoinDesk 20 Index performance on April 22 (CoinDesk)

Markets were buoyed by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reportedly told investors at a closed-door JPMorgan event that the tariff standoff with China was unsustainable. Bessent said de-escalation would come “in the very near future,” characterizing current conditions as a “trade embargo.” However, he cautioned that a more comprehensive deal between the two nations could take even years.

Stocks recovered from yesterday’s decline, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq finishing the session 2.5% and 2.7% higher, respectively. Gold, meanwhile, sharply reversed from its record price of $3,500 during the day and was down 1%.

«As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk,» analysts at hedge fund QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

They highlighted rejuvenating inflows to spot U.S.-listed BTC ETFs and the return of the so-called Coinbase price premium, suggesting demand from American institutional investors. BTC ETF booked over $381 million net inflows on Monday adding to Thursday’s $107 million, according to Farside Investors data.

But not all signs point to a sustained breakout.

Despite the price jump, on-chain data points to fragility beneath the surface, CryptoQuant analysts said in a Tuesday report. Bitcoin’s apparent demand has decreased by 146,000 BTC over the past 30 days—an improvement from the sharp drop in March, but still negative. CryptoQuant’s demand momentum metric, which tracks new investor interest, has deteriorated further to its the most bearish level since October 2024, the report noted.

Market liquidity remains soft, with the report using USDT’s market cap growth as a proxy for crypto liquidity. USDT grew $2.9 billion over the past two months, below its 30-day average. Historically, BTC rallies coincided with USDT growth above $5 billion and above trend — a threshold not yet met.

Adding to the caution, bitcoin is now facing a key resistance zone between $91,000 and $92,000 at around the «Trader’s On-chain Realized Price» metric, a level that has often served as resistance in bearish conditions. CryptoQuant’s on-chain bull score classified current market conditions as bearish, suggesting a pause or pullback could follow if sentiment weakens.

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Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

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Unicoin has rebuffed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) attempt to negotiate a settlement agreement to close an ongoing probe into the Miami-based crypto company, its CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed in a Tuesday letter to investors.

SEC enforcement cases (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

In his letter, Konanykhin said Unicoin was given an “ultimatum” by the SEC to attend a settlement negotiation meeting last week, on April 18.

“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk, adding that the SEC had made demands ahead of the meeting that he found “unacceptable.” He declined to share specifics, telling CoinDesk that the communication between Unicoin’s lawyers and the SEC was confidential.

Unicoin received a Wells notice — a sort of official heads-up from the SEC that it intends to file an enforcement action against the recipient — in December, shortly before former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down, alleging violations related to fraud, deceptive practices, and the offer and sale of unregistered securities. No official enforcement action has yet been filed.

Since President Donald Trump took office, the SEC has reversed its once-aggressive stance toward crypto regulation, backing off from many of its open investigations into crypto companies, including blockchain gaming firm Immutable and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea, and even some of its ongoing litigation, including against Coinbase and Cumberland DRW.

Other SEC enforcement cases against crypto companies, including its cases against Binance and Tron, have been paused while the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement. The agency recently reached a settlement agreement with Nova Labs, the parent company behind the Helium blockchain, that saw Nova Labs pay a $200,000 fine to settle civil securities fraud charges, and the SEC dropped its claims that Helium (HNT) and other related tokens were securities.

In his letter to investors, Konanykhin claimed that the SEC’s probe has caused “multi-billion-dollar damage” to the company and its investors.

“We would likely be a $10B+ publicly traded company by now if the SEC had not blocked our ICO, stock exchange listing and fundraising,” Konanykhin wrote, adding that the SEC had prevented Unicoin from acting on the “very favorable market opportunities.”

“We were forced into a standstill,” Konanykhin wrote.

The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.

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