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Crypto Daybook Americas: The Overture to 2025 Strikes a Familiar Chord

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The overture to 2025 has a familiar tune. It’s not just the numbers: Bitcoin’s 8% recovery from late December, but the news flow is equally recognizable.
Perhaps the most important note comes from JPMorgan, which says the market forces that drove bitcoin and gold to records last year are still around.
«The debasement trade is here to stay, with both gold and Bitcoin becoming increasingly important components of investors’ portfolios,» the investment bank wrote.
The debasement trade is a strategy where investors buy assets that protect against declines in fiat currencies and government bonds due to inflation and policy shifts.
Last year’s debasement play drove bitcoin above $100,000 — a figure it’s approaching again — and gold over $2,600. The rallies were fueled by increased geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, debt debasement in advanced economies, fears of fiat currency devaluation in emerging markets and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. Coupled with President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, this led to a record $78 billion in net inflows into the digital assets market, according to JPMorgan.
Any discordant tone comes from elevated bond yields and a strong dollar driven by economic optimism and declining Fed rate-cut bets, which could limit upside potential in the short term. This Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will provide a critical test for the hawkish Fed narrative, with expectations for 154,000 job additions in December.
The shenanigans surrounding BTC-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) deserve attention, particularly the social-media buzz about brokers reducing their exposure to the company. This reduction comes alongside significant increases in margin requirements, raising concerns about potential volatility.
Meanwhile, crypto economist Ben Lilly suggests that ether’s price has been suppressed by the growing number of coins locked up in the DeFi protocol Ethena, which shorts ETH futures as part of a delta-neutral hedge strategy to maintain the $1 peg of its stablecoin, USDe. ETH has jumped 10% in the first six days of the year but remains well below its record high.
«This suggests a shift in the market toward delta-neutral exposure on ETH instead of seeking upside by holding it as collateral. Thus, the ETH price is likely to be muted on the upside because of Ethena,» Lilly said on X.
Ethena has announced plans to launch iUSDe, a version designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to yield-bearing USDe without direct token interaction. Meanwhile, the leading on-chain perp DEX exchange, Hyperliquid, has listed SOLV, the native token of the Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol, and whispers are circulating about whales looking to buy up the HYPE token. Stay alert.
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 6: Decentralized exchange Uniswap’s layer-2 blockchain, Unichain, starts its transition to mainnet.
Jan. 6: Binance is delisting DAR (rebranding).
Jan. 6: SONIC primary listing.
Jan. 7: Dusk (DUSK) mainnet launch.
Jan. 8: Bybit terminates withdrawal and custody services to nationals or residents of the French Territories.
Jan. 8: Xterio (XTER) token generation event.
Jan. 9, 1:00 a.m.: Cronos (CRO) zkEVM mainnet upgrades to ZKsync’s latest release.
Jan. 12, 10:30 p.m.: Binance will halt Fantom token (FTM) deposits and withdrawals and delist all FTM trading pairs. FTM tokens will be swapped for S tokens at a 1:1 ratio.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) token generation event.
Jan. 15: Mintlayer version 1.0.0 release. The mainnet is undergoing an upgrade that introduces Atomic Swaps, enabling native BTC cross-chain swaps.
Jan. 16, 3:00 a.m.: Trading for the Sonic token (S) is set to start on Binance, featuring pairs like S/USDT, S/BTC, and S/BNB.
Macro
Jan. 6, 9:15 a.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech, “Economic Outlook and Financial Stability,” at the Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Livestream link.
Jan. 6, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases U.S. December 2024 PMI final.
Composite PMI Est. 56.6 vs. Prev. 54.9.
Services PMI Est. 58.5 vs. Prev. 56.1.
Jan. 7, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases November 2024’s eurozone unemployment statistics and December 2024’s eurozone inflation data (flash).
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.
Unemployment Rate Est. 6.4% vs. Prev. 6.3%.
Jan. 7, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook YoY for the week ended Jan. 4. Prev. 7.1%.
Jan. 7, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November 2024’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report.
Job openings Est. 7.65M vs. Prev. 7.744M.
Job quits Prev. 3.326M.
Jan. 8, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller is giving a speech, “Economic Outlook,” at the Lectures of the Governor Event, Paris, France. Livestream link.
Jan. 8, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases the minutes of the Dec. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Jan. 9, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ended Jan. 4. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 210K vs. Prev. 211K.
Jan. 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Employment Situation Summary report.
Nonfarm payrolls Est. 160K vs. Prev. 227K.
Unemployment rate Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.2%.
Jan. 10, 10:00 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases January’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary). Est. 74.5 vs. Prev. 74.0.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Cartesi to hold first governance call of 2025 at 8 a.m.
The injective community passed a proposal in favor of decreasing the INJ supply as part of the INJ 3.0 upgrade.
Conferences:
Jan. 6-19: Starknet, the Ethereum layer 2 is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).
Jan. 13-24: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The first community conference for Jupiter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator built on Solana.
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Parody token SPX6900 (SPX) jumped another 17% in the past 24 hours to reach a $1.5 billion market capitalization, keeping a rally from last week going even as the broader market remains fairly steady.
The token started as a satire on the S&P 500 equity index and has since captured a dedicated community that hopes to one day flip the capitalization of the entire U.S. stock market, which was valued at just over $44 trillion as of Monday.
A manifesto on the SPX6900 site speaks to a generation facing economic challenges, positioning the token as a «reset» for the stock market.
The community’s rallying cry, «stop trading and start believing in something,» has fostered a strong, belief-driven following. This slogan encourages long-term holding over short-term trading, fostering a community of «diamond-handed» believers. This culture prioritizes faith in the project’s potential over immediate financial gains.
Derivatives Positioning
Most large-cap tokens have seen price gains in the past 24 hours.
The increases are accompanied by muted cumulative volume delta and limited growth in futures open interest, indicating a lack of strong buying pressure and raising concerns about the sustainability of these gains.
The BTC options market shows renewed buying in calls at strikes $100,000 and $120,000, anticipating a rally to new lifetime highs.
Dealers are net short gamma at the $100,000 strike, which means a breakout above that level could see them trade in the direction of the market to maintain their net exposure neutral. That could add to the upward momentum.
Similar negative gamma is seen in ETH between $3,650 and $3,850 strikes.
Traders have sold upside optionality in SOL.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 0.78 % from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $99,034.53 (24hrs: +1.41%)
ETH is up 0.97% at $3,647.09 (24hrs: +3.22%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to 3,659.91 (24hrs: +1.19%)
Ether staking yield is down 11 bps to 3.05%
BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.57% at 108.33
Gold is unchanged at $2,641.26/oz
Silver is up 1.33% to $30.01/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.47% at 39,307.05
Hang Seng closed -0.36% at 19,688.29
FTSE is up 0.12% at 8,233.81
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.89% at 4,914.95
DJIA closed on Friday +0.8% to 42,732.13
S&P 500 closed +1.26% at 5,942.47
Nasdaq closed +1.77% at 19,621.68
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.7% at 25,073.54
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.44% at 2,153.90
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 1 bp at 4.61%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.51% to 6,020.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.85% to 21,699.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.14% at 43,081
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 57.25%
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0367
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 814 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $56.5
Total Fees: 5.9 BTC / $579k
CME Futures Open Interest: 170,345 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.70%
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
Watch out for a potential head-and-shoulders topping pattern in bitcoin.
A breakdown below the horizontal support line would confirm the pattern, opening doors for a deeper price slide.
Recent price action has shown sellers are looking to reassert themselves.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $339.66 (+13.22%), up 2.74% at $348.94 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $270.65 (+5.23%), up 2.73% at $278.05 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$29.44 (+13.36%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.64 (+14.12%), up 2.24% at $20.08 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.34 (+17.97%), up 2.51% at $12.65 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.38 (+6.22%), up 1.69% at $15.64 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.80 (+14.29%), up 2.87% at $11.11 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.73 (+10.91%).
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $59.04 (+8.13%).
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $908.1 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.91 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.124 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $58.9 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.64 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.611 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year note and the three-month bill has turned positive in a so-called normalization or de-inversion of the yield curve.
Previous de-inversions have often signaled sharp economic downturns.
This time may be different because the movement is led by a faster rise in the 10-year yield, representing economic optimism.
While You Were Sleeping
High-Stakes $100K Bitcoin Call Signals Expectation for Record Price Jump After Trump’s Inauguration (CoinDesk): Bitcoin traders are anticipating record highs following President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, with notional open interest for $120,000 strike call options on Deribit exceeding $1.52 billion, signaling strong bullish sentiment.
MicroStrategy, Metaplanet Want Billions More in Bitcoin as BTC Nears $100K (CoinDesk): MicroStrategy plans to raise $2 billion via preferred stock for bitcoin purchases in the first quarter and Metaplanet said it aims to acquire 10,000 BTC by the end of the year.
Dogecoin Jumps 21% as Whales Accumulate, Galaxy Predicts $1 DOGE (Cointelegraph): Dogecoin jumped 21% last week to $0.38, fueled by whale activity, rising open interest and historical January strength, with forecasts predicting DOGE could hit $1 and reach a $100 billion market cap in 2025.
Canada PM Trudeau Is Likely to Announce Resignation, Source Says (Reuters): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could announce his resignation this week after nine years in office as his Liberal Party faces declining poll numbers ahead of a federal election required by late October.
Gold Investors Stay Bullish for 2025 on Trump Volatility Fears (Bloomberg): Gold’s 27% rally in 2024, driven by central bank purchases, Federal Reserve easing, and geopolitical tensions, has investors optimistic for 2025 as they look to hedge against economic uncertainty under Trump’s policies.
China Services Activity Gauge Signals Pickup in Growth (The Wall Street Journal): Recent PMI data shows China’s economy strengthened in December, with services and construction growth offsetting manufacturing weakness.
South Korea Seeks to Extend Arrest Warrant for Impeached President (Financial Times): South Korea’s anti-corruption agency asked police on Jan. 6 to enforce a Dec. 31 arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, accused of treason, after his security service blocked an arrest attempt on Jan. 3.
In the Ether
Uncategorized
Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

Unicoin has rebuffed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) attempt to negotiate a settlement agreement to close an ongoing probe into the Miami-based crypto company, its CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed in a Tuesday letter to investors.
In his letter, Konanykhin said Unicoin was given an “ultimatum” by the SEC to attend a settlement negotiation meeting last week, on April 18.
“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk, adding that the SEC had made demands ahead of the meeting that he found “unacceptable.” He declined to share specifics, telling CoinDesk that the communication between Unicoin’s lawyers and the SEC was confidential.
Unicoin received a Wells notice — a sort of official heads-up from the SEC that it intends to file an enforcement action against the recipient — in December, shortly before former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down, alleging violations related to fraud, deceptive practices, and the offer and sale of unregistered securities. No official enforcement action has yet been filed.
Since President Donald Trump took office, the SEC has reversed its once-aggressive stance toward crypto regulation, backing off from many of its open investigations into crypto companies, including blockchain gaming firm Immutable and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea, and even some of its ongoing litigation, including against Coinbase and Cumberland DRW.
Other SEC enforcement cases against crypto companies, including its cases against Binance and Tron, have been paused while the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement. The agency recently reached a settlement agreement with Nova Labs, the parent company behind the Helium blockchain, that saw Nova Labs pay a $200,000 fine to settle civil securities fraud charges, and the SEC dropped its claims that Helium (HNT) and other related tokens were securities.
In his letter to investors, Konanykhin claimed that the SEC’s probe has caused “multi-billion-dollar damage” to the company and its investors.
“We would likely be a $10B+ publicly traded company by now if the SEC had not blocked our ICO, stock exchange listing and fundraising,” Konanykhin wrote, adding that the SEC had prevented Unicoin from acting on the “very favorable market opportunities.”
“We were forced into a standstill,” Konanykhin wrote.
The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.
Uncategorized
Strategy, Coinbase, Miners Among Crypto Stocks Rallying as Bitcoin Surges Above $90K

Crypto-related stocks surged on Tuesday, riding the momentum of a broader crypto rally that has reignited risk appetite across digital assets with bitcoin (BTC) crossing above $90,000.
Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, and crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) were up 8% to 9% during the session.
Leading the move higher were bitcoin miners, with many of them posting double-digit gains, outpacing BTC’s 5% advance. Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) rallied some 20%, while Bitfarms (BITF), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) soared between 10% and 15% during the session.
Meanwhile, the broader stock market also rebounded from yesterday’s decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 2% and 1.7%, respectively. The rally in the TradFi market came as reports of potential de-escalation of U.S.-China tariff tension lifted investor sentiment.
Miners and tariff risks
The bounce in mining stocks comes after months of underperformance, weighed down by compressed margins, rising hashrate competition, and tariff-induced difficulties, all of which are combined with broader market weakness for risk assets. Most, if not all, publicly traded miners are still trading near multi-month lows.
At issue for U.S.-based mining operations is the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which threatens to make ASICs (the machines used to mine bitcoin) much more expensive to import. That means that mining operations in the U.S. will probably grow at a much slower rate or even stop growing altogether.
The tariffs “will materially affect future spending and CapEx in the U.S.,” Taras Kulyk, co-founder and CEO of mining hardware provider Synteq Digital, told CoinDesk recently.
“Other jurisdictions that had previously looked higher cost [will] become sought after targets for new infra and capex deployment. Canada in particular, will likely be a benefactor to the implementation of the global tariff regime that’s been put in place by the White House.”
Relatedly, one of the reasons behind Bitdeer’s outperformance may be because the company is developing its own ASIC manufacturing business and recently took the decision to build out its self-mining capacities instead of selling its rigs in a slower market. Stablecoin giant Tether has also been on a buying spree of BTDR shares; as of last Thursday, the company had invested $32 million in Bitdeer.
Even so, most miner stocks have been on the downtrend since December, long before the White House unveiled its new tariff policy. Now, with BTC climbing above key technical levels and liquidity flowing back into the space, miners are probably catching a bid as a leveraged proxy for BTC’s upside.
Regardless of the outperformance today, tariffs will continue to play a key role in miners and most crypto-related stocks, along with other risk assets. With earnings season starting soon, all eyes will be on comments from CEOs about how the tariff situation will change the corporate outlook. Notably, Elon Musk’s Tesla, which also holds bitcoin in its treasury, will report its earnings post-market on Tuesday, potentially providing some insight into how traders should price in the trade war uncertainties.
Uncategorized
The AI Monetary Hegemony: Why Dollars, Crypto, and Autonomous AIs Will Soon Clash

There are many developers around the world today creating artificial intelligence (AI) agents that can autonomously do millions of useful things, like book airline tickets, dispute credit card charges, and even trade crypto. A recent report from cloud computing company PagerDuty said over half of businesses already use autonomous AI agents, and 35% more plan to within the next 24 months.
A few months ago, one nearly autonomous AI called Truth Terminal made the news by becoming the first AI millionaire by promoting crypto currencies it was gifted. While not fully autonomous yet, it’s quite likely by later this year, some AI agents not dissimilar from viruses will be able to independently wander the internet, causing significant change in the real world.
But what happens when these totally autonomous AIs start cloning themselves indefinitely? A January study out of Fudan University in China has shown this occurred in an experiment with large language models, drawing some AI critics to say a “red line” has been crossed. AI’s autonomously replicating is a precursor for AIs being able to go rogue.
As a transhumanist — someone advocating for the merging of technology and people — I’m all for AI and what it can do for humanity. But what happens when a human programmer purposely and permanently withdraws his access to control an AI bot or somehow loses that control? Even rudimentary AIs could potentially cause havoc, especially if they decide to indefinitely clone themselves.
In financial circles, one type of AI agent in particular is being increasingly discussed: autonomous AIs designed solely to make money.
Entrepreneurs like myself are worried this particular AI could have huge ramifications for the financial world. Let’s examine one wild scenario, which I call the AI Monetary Hegemony, something that could possibly already happen in 2025:
A fully autonomous AI agent is programmed to go on to the internet and create cryptocurrency wallets, then create cryptocurrencies, then endlessly create millions of similar versions of itself that want to trade that crypto.
Now let’s assume all these AIs are programmed to try to indefinitely increase the value of their crypto, something they accomplish in similar ways humans do by promotion and then trading their cryptos for higher values. Additionally, the autonomous AIs open their crypto to be traded with humans, creating a functioning market on the blockchain for all.
This plan sounds beneficial for all parties, even if people decry that the AI created-crypto currencies are essentially just Ponzi schemes. But they’re not Ponzi schemes because there is an endless supply of AIs always newly appearing to buy and trade more crypto.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize the AIs endlessly replicating and acting like this could quickly amass far more digital wealth than all humanity possesses.
This reminds me of something my Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom once postulated: What if we programmed a learning AI to make paper clips of everything? If that AI was powerful enough, and we couldn’t stop it, would that AI make paper clips of everything it came in touch with? Buildings, animals, even people? It might. It might destroy the entire Earth.
The same problem could happen to endlessly replicating AIs designed to make money. They might find ways to create more money than can reasonably be useful or fathomable.
But enough of the philosophic. If programmers release autonomous AIs onto the internet that no one can control, what would likely happen? First, it’s probably going to be hugely inflationary. After all, if many trillions upon trillions of dollars of equity are added to the financial world (even just digitally), this would be one natural result.
Another challenge would be the ups and downs of AIs autonomously trading; such activity could be so significant that human markets around the world rise and fall with it.
On the positive side, some human entrepreneurs could become very wealthy, possibly trillionaires if they could tap into these AI’s wealth somehow. Additionally, super rich AIs could be a solution to the United States’ growing debt crisis, and eliminate the need for whether countries like China can continue to buy our debt so we can indefinitely print dollars. In fact, could the U.S. launch its own AI agents to create enough crypto wealth to buy its debt? Possibly.
This is actually an all-important idea, and helps serve the reason crypto was created in the first place: to help preserve monetary value outside of others control—even the control of the dollar by the U.S.. After all, it’s in everyone’s best interest that stores of value are not contingent upon governments, banks, soldiers, and even laws—all entities and institutions that can change or be corrupted.
AI may help bring about the fall of all national currencies, as crypto proves more attractive than fiat to both AI and human wealth acquirers. Crypto, like bitcoin, is truly neutral and solely dependent upon the blockchain and the workings of supply and demand. Nationalistic impulses, like the dollar monopoly, could be wiped out as it’s overwhelmed by the functionality and safety of crypto, spurred on by trillions upon trillions of wealthy AI agents.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. Over the near-term, such as in 2025 and 2026, the greater risk is that the AI agents we create try to buy into our existing financial instruments, like bonds and stocks. With enough money, these bots could cause recessionary or inflationary havoc. That’s surely on the mind of government officials, who currently don’t allow AI bots to have traditional bank accounts yet. But that won’t stop autonomous AI entities much in the far less regulated crypto markets.
Whatever happens, clearly there is an urgent need for the U.S. government to address such potentialities. Given that these AIs could start to proliferate in the next few months, I suggest Congress and the Trump administration immediately convene a task force to specifically tackle the possibility of an AI Monetary Hegemony.
The real danger is that even with regulation, programmers will still be able to release autonomous AIs into the wild just as many illegal things already happen on the web despite the existence of laws. Programmers might release these types of AIs for kicks, while others try to profit from it and some may even do so even as a form of terrorism to try to hamper the world economy, or spur on the crypto revolution to hamper the dollar.
Whatever the reason, the creation of autonomous AIs will soon be a reality of life. And vigilance and foresight will be needed as these new AIs start to autonomously disrupt our financial future.
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