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Crypto Will See Revolution By Acceleration

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On Nov. 6, I wrote a memo to EY’s blockchain leadership team. The headline was simple: “Every single private blockchain just died.” Since November 2022, the crypto and blockchain markets have been defined by caution and gradual recovery. The direction has been consistent and positive, but slow, especially in 2023.

In 2024, we saw a gradual but sustained acceleration. The year started with the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), and just kept accelerating through an Ethereum ETF, and the adoption of the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) legislation.

We were on a path of steady, global regulatory convergence, including rules of the road for all the major crypto and digital asset types. We were also on a path towards public blockchains. Bitcoin is a kind of digital gold, and Ethereum is a development platform for digital assets and services.

The path may have been consistent, but the pace was measured. It was routine to hear people at big financial institutions tell me that they would love to move to public Ethereum but “the regulators won’t allow it.” On the night of Nov 5 (following the U.S. election), the prospect of substantial regulatory change became a reality. Any certainty about what regulators will or will not allow was suddenly out the window and a clear direction of travel was radical acceleration on public networks.

There is no absolute certainty in life, but if I must make predictions about 2025, it is that we will indeed have a seachange in the U.S. regulatory environment, and that will, in turn, bring about a collective global shift in the same direction, though not necessarily at quite the same pace. However, since the U.S. is by far the world’s largest financial market, that counts for a lot.

Bitcoin is already a big winner here. It is cementing its place as the digital version of gold, and could in the course of 2025, take up that role officially with countries and governments dipping their toes into strategic bitcoin reserves. My own past prediction was that Bitcoin was likely to continue growing until it reaches the size and market cap of gold, which is currently about $14 trillion. In many ways, Bitcoin is much more attractive as a scarcity-based asset. Higher prices for Bitcoin do not increase the supply, something you cannot say about actual gold.

Ethereum will be the second big winner. Ethereum has transitioned smoothly to proof-of-stake, dropping carbon output by >99%, and it has also scaled up massively. The combined Ethereum network (Layer 1 mainnet and Layer 2 networks) has several hundred times the capacity it had during the last bull market. Transaction fees are low and likely to stay that way for some time. Massive scalability, low costs, and an outstanding security, and uptime record are going to make Ethereum the choice for most digital asset issuers.

Beyond cryptocurrency, the single biggest boom we’re likely to see in 2025 is likely to be around stablecoin payments. The value proposition and business case for stablecoin payments is already strong. Around the world, users want access to U.S. dollars, particularly for international remittances. Use of dollar stablecoins was already popular with crypto users, but access and use cases are spreading rapidly. Circle works with Nubank in Brazil, for example, to make USDC payments directly accessible to all account holders. Celo, an Ethereum network, has partnered with Opera to put stablecoin payments into Opera’s web browser, which is optimized for low-cost smartphones popular in emerging markets. Celo’s stablecoin transaction volumes have been growing rapidly as a result.

Stablecoin payments are reaching into the enterprise sector as well. EY, PayPal and Coinbase have worked with SAP to enable fully automated payments from inside enterprise ERP systems. Now, the same in-system automation that works for bank accounts also works for crypto-rails payments. This is particularly important for enterprise use where processes that cannot be automated at scale have no chance of adoption. When combined with improved privacy tools (and better regulatory treatment of privacy systems), crypto rails look like much lower cost options for enterprise users.

2025 is also likely to be a breakthrough year for decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi relies on software applications running on-chain to replicate key functions in financial services and banking.

Throughout 2024, DeFi was the one area of the crypto ecosystem that saw no real movement on regulatory clarity and, thanks to high real-world interest rates, wasn’t a hugely attractive option. The regulatory environment is likely to be much more favorable for DeFi in 2025 and if interest rates come down, a more aggressive search for incremental yield on-chain could take off. DeFi tools that allow people to loan their assets into liquidity pools and other services in exchange for additional return on the asset (and added risk) might become popular again.

So the revolution won’t be about something new or different, it will just be about everything rushing forward all at once. And across the board, the competitive intensity in every sector of the blockchain ecosystem is about to get dialed up to 11, (my “Spinal Tap” reference). Companies, banks, brokerages, insurance firms and more that were sitting on the sidelines and watching with horror in 2023 and caution in 2024 and likely to take the plunge in 2025. I’ve already lost track of all the big firms that have announced plans to offer a stable coin, a real world asset, or start selling bitcoin and eth to their customers.

Competitive intensity inside the blockchain ecosystem is already dialed up to 11, and 2025 is going to be a rough year inside the market. People running blockchain networks and services should be forgiven for wondering if these are good times, is it worth it? Inside the Ethereum ecosystem, there are now more than 40 different Layer 2 networks. Competition on transaction fees is brutal, differentiation across Layer 2 networks is low, and more competitors are entering the market.

Rough as it is inside Ethereum, it may be worse outside as “alt-L1s” face a combined Ethereum ecosystem that looks scalable, secure, and reliably low cost. Some networks, like Celo, already made the pivot from competing with Ethereum to being a part of it. I expect more will follow in 2025.

The only worse place to be than facing furious public blockchain competition may be in running a private blockchain. When your value proposition is “it’s as close to Ethereum as the regulators will allow” and all those regulators are being moved out, the prospects are especially bleak. I’ve already fielded calls from firms in private networks asking about how to pivot and how fast it can be done.

Lastly, I predict 2025 could be a fabulous year for fraud. A carnival and casino-like atmosphere in online trading combined with rapid regulatory loosening could attract the same grifters that showed up in the last crypto boom. What’s harder to predict is exactly where this fraud may show up. People are generally pretty good at bolting the barn door after the horse has fled. So, things that worked in the past, such as hacking exchanges or borrowing from depositor funds, are going to be harder to repeat. Audits, regulators, and better security technology all contribute to that. That doesn’t mean the risk is going away, just that it will arrive in a new package.

Happy New Year and have a great 2025!

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author and do not represent the views of EY.

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Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

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Unicoin has rebuffed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) attempt to negotiate a settlement agreement to close an ongoing probe into the Miami-based crypto company, its CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed in a Tuesday letter to investors.

SEC enforcement cases (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

In his letter, Konanykhin said Unicoin was given an “ultimatum” by the SEC to attend a settlement negotiation meeting last week, on April 18.

“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk, adding that the SEC had made demands ahead of the meeting that he found “unacceptable.” He declined to share specifics, telling CoinDesk that the communication between Unicoin’s lawyers and the SEC was confidential.

Unicoin received a Wells notice — a sort of official heads-up from the SEC that it intends to file an enforcement action against the recipient — in December, shortly before former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down, alleging violations related to fraud, deceptive practices, and the offer and sale of unregistered securities. No official enforcement action has yet been filed.

Since President Donald Trump took office, the SEC has reversed its once-aggressive stance toward crypto regulation, backing off from many of its open investigations into crypto companies, including blockchain gaming firm Immutable and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea, and even some of its ongoing litigation, including against Coinbase and Cumberland DRW.

Other SEC enforcement cases against crypto companies, including its cases against Binance and Tron, have been paused while the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement. The agency recently reached a settlement agreement with Nova Labs, the parent company behind the Helium blockchain, that saw Nova Labs pay a $200,000 fine to settle civil securities fraud charges, and the SEC dropped its claims that Helium (HNT) and other related tokens were securities.

In his letter to investors, Konanykhin claimed that the SEC’s probe has caused “multi-billion-dollar damage” to the company and its investors.

“We would likely be a $10B+ publicly traded company by now if the SEC had not blocked our ICO, stock exchange listing and fundraising,” Konanykhin wrote, adding that the SEC had prevented Unicoin from acting on the “very favorable market opportunities.”

“We were forced into a standstill,” Konanykhin wrote.

The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.

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Strategy, Coinbase, Miners Among Crypto Stocks Rallying as Bitcoin Surges Above $90K

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Crypto-related stocks surged on Tuesday, riding the momentum of a broader crypto rally that has reignited risk appetite across digital assets with bitcoin (BTC) crossing above $90,000.

Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, and crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) were up 8% to 9% during the session.

Leading the move higher were bitcoin miners, with many of them posting double-digit gains, outpacing BTC’s 5% advance. Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) rallied some 20%, while Bitfarms (BITF), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) soared between 10% and 15% during the session.

Meanwhile, the broader stock market also rebounded from yesterday’s decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 2% and 1.7%, respectively. The rally in the TradFi market came as reports of potential de-escalation of U.S.-China tariff tension lifted investor sentiment.

Miners and tariff risks

The bounce in mining stocks comes after months of underperformance, weighed down by compressed margins, rising hashrate competition, and tariff-induced difficulties, all of which are combined with broader market weakness for risk assets. Most, if not all, publicly traded miners are still trading near multi-month lows.

At issue for U.S.-based mining operations is the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which threatens to make ASICs (the machines used to mine bitcoin) much more expensive to import. That means that mining operations in the U.S. will probably grow at a much slower rate or even stop growing altogether.

The tariffs “will materially affect future spending and CapEx in the U.S.,” Taras Kulyk, co-founder and CEO of mining hardware provider Synteq Digital, told CoinDesk recently.

“Other jurisdictions that had previously looked higher cost [will] become sought after targets for new infra and capex deployment. Canada in particular, will likely be a benefactor to the implementation of the global tariff regime that’s been put in place by the White House.”

Relatedly, one of the reasons behind Bitdeer’s outperformance may be because the company is developing its own ASIC manufacturing business and recently took the decision to build out its self-mining capacities instead of selling its rigs in a slower market. Stablecoin giant Tether has also been on a buying spree of BTDR shares; as of last Thursday, the company had invested $32 million in Bitdeer.

Even so, most miner stocks have been on the downtrend since December, long before the White House unveiled its new tariff policy. Now, with BTC climbing above key technical levels and liquidity flowing back into the space, miners are probably catching a bid as a leveraged proxy for BTC’s upside.

Regardless of the outperformance today, tariffs will continue to play a key role in miners and most crypto-related stocks, along with other risk assets. With earnings season starting soon, all eyes will be on comments from CEOs about how the tariff situation will change the corporate outlook. Notably, Elon Musk’s Tesla, which also holds bitcoin in its treasury, will report its earnings post-market on Tuesday, potentially providing some insight into how traders should price in the trade war uncertainties.

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The AI Monetary Hegemony: Why Dollars, Crypto, and Autonomous AIs Will Soon Clash

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There are many developers around the world today creating artificial intelligence (AI) agents that can autonomously do millions of useful things, like book airline tickets, dispute credit card charges, and even trade crypto. A recent report from cloud computing company PagerDuty said over half of businesses already use autonomous AI agents, and 35% more plan to within the next 24 months.

A few months ago, one nearly autonomous AI called Truth Terminal made the news by becoming the first AI millionaire by promoting crypto currencies it was gifted. While not fully autonomous yet, it’s quite likely by later this year, some AI agents not dissimilar from viruses will be able to independently wander the internet, causing significant change in the real world.

But what happens when these totally autonomous AIs start cloning themselves indefinitely? A January study out of Fudan University in China has shown this occurred in an experiment with large language models, drawing some AI critics to say a “red line” has been crossed. AI’s autonomously replicating is a precursor for AIs being able to go rogue.

As a transhumanist — someone advocating for the merging of technology and people — I’m all for AI and what it can do for humanity. But what happens when a human programmer purposely and permanently withdraws his access to control an AI bot or somehow loses that control? Even rudimentary AIs could potentially cause havoc, especially if they decide to indefinitely clone themselves.

In financial circles, one type of AI agent in particular is being increasingly discussed: autonomous AIs designed solely to make money.

Entrepreneurs like myself are worried this particular AI could have huge ramifications for the financial world. Let’s examine one wild scenario, which I call the AI Monetary Hegemony, something that could possibly already happen in 2025:

A fully autonomous AI agent is programmed to go on to the internet and create cryptocurrency wallets, then create cryptocurrencies, then endlessly create millions of similar versions of itself that want to trade that crypto.

Now let’s assume all these AIs are programmed to try to indefinitely increase the value of their crypto, something they accomplish in similar ways humans do by promotion and then trading their cryptos for higher values. Additionally, the autonomous AIs open their crypto to be traded with humans, creating a functioning market on the blockchain for all.

This plan sounds beneficial for all parties, even if people decry that the AI created-crypto currencies are essentially just Ponzi schemes. But they’re not Ponzi schemes because there is an endless supply of AIs always newly appearing to buy and trade more crypto.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize the AIs endlessly replicating and acting like this could quickly amass far more digital wealth than all humanity possesses.

This reminds me of something my Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom once postulated: What if we programmed a learning AI to make paper clips of everything? If that AI was powerful enough, and we couldn’t stop it, would that AI make paper clips of everything it came in touch with? Buildings, animals, even people? It might. It might destroy the entire Earth.

The same problem could happen to endlessly replicating AIs designed to make money. They might find ways to create more money than can reasonably be useful or fathomable. 

But enough of the philosophic. If programmers release autonomous AIs onto the internet that no one can control, what would likely happen? First, it’s probably going to be hugely inflationary. After all, if many trillions upon trillions of dollars of equity are added to the financial world (even just digitally), this would be one natural result.

Another challenge would be the ups and downs of AIs autonomously trading; such activity could be so significant that human markets around the world rise and fall with it.

On the positive side, some human entrepreneurs could become very wealthy, possibly trillionaires if they could tap into these AI’s wealth somehow. Additionally, super rich AIs could be a solution to the United States’ growing debt crisis, and eliminate the need for whether countries like China can continue to buy our debt so we can indefinitely print dollars. In fact, could the U.S. launch its own AI agents to create enough crypto wealth to buy its debt? Possibly.

This is actually an all-important idea, and helps serve the reason crypto was created in the first place: to help preserve monetary value outside of others control—even the control of the dollar by the U.S.. After all, it’s in everyone’s best interest that stores of value are not contingent upon governments, banks, soldiers, and even laws—all entities and institutions that can change or be corrupted.

AI may help bring about the fall of all national currencies, as crypto proves more attractive than fiat to both AI and human wealth acquirers. Crypto, like bitcoin, is truly neutral and solely dependent upon the blockchain and the workings of supply and demand. Nationalistic impulses, like the dollar monopoly, could be wiped out as it’s overwhelmed by the functionality and safety of crypto, spurred on by trillions upon trillions of wealthy AI agents.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Over the near-term, such as in 2025 and 2026, the greater risk is that the AI agents we create try to buy into our existing financial instruments, like bonds and stocks. With enough money, these bots could cause recessionary or inflationary havoc. That’s surely on the mind of government officials, who currently don’t allow AI bots to have traditional bank accounts yet. But that won’t stop autonomous AI entities much in the far less regulated crypto markets.

Whatever happens, clearly there is an urgent need for the U.S. government to address such potentialities. Given that these AIs could start to proliferate in the next few months, I suggest Congress and the Trump administration immediately convene a task force to specifically tackle the possibility of an AI Monetary Hegemony.

The real danger is that even with regulation, programmers will still be able to release autonomous AIs into the wild just as many illegal things already happen on the web despite the existence of laws. Programmers might release these types of AIs for kicks, while others try to profit from it and some may even do so even as a form of terrorism to try to hamper the world economy, or spur on the crypto revolution to hamper the dollar.

Whatever the reason, the creation of autonomous AIs will soon be a reality of life. And vigilance and foresight will be needed as these new AIs start to autonomously disrupt our financial future.

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