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Don’t Expect Bitcoin Fireworks Ahead of New Year, Traders Say, as BTC ETFs Lose $420M

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Bearish trading in bitcoin (BTC) markets continued late Monday as the asset briefly fell under $92,000 on profit-taking despite another mammoth MicroStrategy purchase, recovering to just over $92,800 as of Asian morning hours Tuesday.

Some traders expect the current price action to likely continue until February, weeks after president-elect Donald Trump takes office in the U.S. and sets into motion a barrage of policies that may help the market.

«We are skeptical of any New Year fireworks especially with funding healthy,» traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast. «January’s average returns (+3.3%) are relatively similar to December’s (+4.8%), and we could expect spot to remain in this range in the near-term before things start to pick from Feb onwards.»

«Options flows are also reflecting similar sentiments with frontend vols drifting lower and risk-reversals most bid for Calls in March, partly due to significant March (120k-130k) Calls bought last Friday,» they added. This means traders are betting on bitcoin prices going up in March. They’re buying more call options (which profit if the stock rises) than put options. The cost of these options is going down, showing optimism for the March period.

BTC is on track to end December down 4%, its worst since 2021, as both retail investors and long-term holders cash out positions after a 117% yearly surge. Elsewhere, readings of the U.S. Chicago PMI indicate an economic slowdown, adding pressure on the market that tends to be correlated to such data.

In what looks to have been its final purchase of the year, Bitcoin development company MicroStrategy increased its BTC stash for the eighth consecutive week on Monday, adding another 2,138 BTC for $209 million in the week ended Dec. 29. That brought its total holdings to 446,400 BTC.

But news of the buying did little to stem losses. BTC prices slumped in the hours following MicroStrategy’s announcement, while shares of the company fell 8% to their lowest since early November.

The fall spread over to majors, with ether (ETH), XRP, Solana’s SOL and Cardano’s ADA falling as much as 3% before recovering. BNB Chain’s BNB was little changed, while memecoins dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu (SHIB) fell 5%.

The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, minus stablecoins, lost 2.7% in the past 24 hours.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding the asset recorded $420 million in outflows in their second-last day of trading ahead of the new year, data shows. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $154 million to lead outflows, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $130 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $36 million.

The products have recorded more than $1.5 billion in net outflows since Dec. 19, pausing an impressive run in the first half of the month that saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows. Large outflows can reflect a shift in investor sentiment, possibly moving toward a more cautious or bearish outlook on bitcoin’s short-term performance.

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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens

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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.

Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000

Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.

Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.

“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”

Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”

Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.

Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.

The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.

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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years

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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.

«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.

Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.

It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.

Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.

It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.

«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.

After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.

Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court

UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.

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Pump.Fun’s Rumored AMM Pivot a ‘Strategic Miscalculation,’ Says Raydium

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Solana’s dominant automated market maker (AMM) Raydium hit back Monday on rumors that major volume driver Pump.Fun was preparing to launch its own AMM.

Abandoning Raydium whole hog would be a «strategic miscalculation» for the massively popular — and profitable — memecoin factory, core contributor InfraRAY said in a post on X. He cast doubt on the notion that Pump.Fun could replicate its success if it swaps Raydium out for in-house trading infrastructure.

Token investors dumped RAY en-masse this weekend after hawkeyed observers noticed Pump.Fun was apparently testing its own AMM, presumably with the intent to replace Raydium’s longstanding liquidity pools as its platform of choice. Such a move would shake up the economics of decentralized token trading on Solana.

Right now, Raydium, the chain’s largest AMM platform, captures trading fees generated by Pump.Fun memecoins that «graduated» from the launchpad to its own pools. The arrangement — in place since Pump.Fun’s earliest days — has been a financial boon for Raydium

But it also leaves Pump.Fun out of the long-term upside of the tokens its users create. That’s not to say it’s making nothing: Pump.Fun has amassed half a billion dollars on the fees it collects from early-stage token launches, one of crypto’s grandest warchest.

Raydium is currently generating over $1 million in fees every day from trading across all its liquidity pools, not just those of Pump.fun tokens. That said, over 30% of Raydium’s daily trading volume comes from Pump.fun tokens, according to a Dune dashboard, meaning a good share of its fees could dry up if Pump.Fun switches away.

«100%, revenue hit is real,» InfraRAY said in a message to CoinDesk. But he cautioned that the market’s 30% haircut on RAY tokens was «overblown» and partially due to SOL’s own weakness.

He said any pivot to a new AMM could hit myriad issues: inadequate supporting infrastructure, low demand for migrated tokens, a flop on volume at launch.

«I think that’s a real risk they are overlooking but I could be wrong,» InfraRAY said.

Pump.Fun co-founder Alon Cohen declined to comment.

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