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Sell the News: MicroStrategy Plunge Deepens in Days Following Nasdaq-100 Inclusion
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In retrospect, it was inevitable.
Down more than 8% and holding just above $300 on Monday, MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are now lower by about 30% since just after the announcement of their inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index and nearly 50% from their late November record high.
The signs of at least a major short-term top in one-time barely known enterprise software company turned juggernaut Bitcoin Development Company MicroStrategy were everywhere.
First among those signals was the rocketing stock price — at its high of $543 in late November, MSTR was up nearly eight-fold in 2024 and more than a 50-bagger since the company began buying bitcoin (BTC) in August 2020.
There was also founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor — never shy about promoting his company’s prospects and evangelizing for Bitcoin — who late this year had somehow become even more ubiquitous on the financial news, podcast and social media carousels.
It wasn’t just the constant appearances, but subtle changes in Saylor’s attitude to what might charitably be described by U.S. sports fans as «spiking the football» following a touchdown. Among them was the constant promotion of the MicroStrategy-invented key performance indicator of «bitcoin yield,» which recalled late 1990s made-up internet bubble metrics like «page views.» His company flush with cash from share and convertible debt sales, Saylor — for reasons unknown — late in the year also got in the habit of teasing announcements of sizable new bitcoin purchases on the Sunday prior to the official regulatory filing on Monday morning.
And then there was the emergence of copycats. Despite years of the obvious success of Saylor’s bitcoin treasury strategy, there had been a decided lack of other publicly traded corporates adopting the same. Yes, a few — even large-caps like the Elon Musk-led Tesla and Jack Dorsey-led Square — had dipped their toes into bitcoin acquisition. No other company of note, though, was willing to not only adopt bitcoin as their main treasury asset but take advantage of willing markets to raise additional capital with which to accumulate tokens.
That changed in a sizable way this year however, with small cap medical device maker Semler Scientific, Japan hotel operator Metaplanet, and a number of bitcoin miners among those embracing the Saylor vision — each of them earning social media plaudits from Saylor with every capital raise and bitcoin purchase announcement.
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop
Not content with being maybe the greatest trader ever and accumulating many billions of dollars, George Soros wanted to be known as a great thinker. It’s no coincidence that his magnum opus on trading — the Theory of Reflexivity — sounds suspiciously similar to a famous theory from a fellow named Einstein.
Soros explained that investor perception and its effect on prices is a constant two-way street. In this way, perception (which is often wrong, as humans are fallible) can not just influence prices, but literally create its own reality, i.e. 1) investors believe a stock will go higher because earnings are about to get a big boost, 2) the stock price goes higher, 3) the high stock price allows management to raise capital at a cheaper cost than otherwise, 4) this improves earnings, 5) the stock price goes even higher, 6) the bulls pat themselves on the back for their brilliance and win over converts, … and so on.
Strip away much of Soros’ philosophy and this is also known as a virtuous circle, in which MicroStrategy had surely found itself in 2024. Part of Soros’ trading genius was recognizing these circles when they were happening and jumping on — in size. Another part of his genius was figuring out when the circles were about to break and getting out or even betting against them.
«If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,» said the late economist Herb Stein, who at the time was talking about government budget/trade deficits. Stein’s Law, it turns out, was equally applicable to MicroStrategy shares.
Scoreboard: still showing remarkable gains
Changing hands at about $430 just after the Dec. 14 announcement of its coming inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 Index, MicroStrategy is now selling at just above $300, a decline of roughly 30% in just two weeks.
Looking back, there appear to have been cracks in the MicroStrategy bubble three weeks earlier. The stock peaked at about $543 on Nov. 21. Despite bitcoin’s continued rise through late November and early December to an ultimate high above $108,000, MSTR lost ground — what technicians might call a troubling negative divergence. At the current $300, MicroStrategy for the moment is suffering a peak-to-trough drop of 45% in about five weeks.
MSTR shares have still put in a remarkable performance under anything except that very tiny time frame. They remain higher by more than 400% year-to-date and about 20-fold from the time Saylor initiated bitcoin purchases in August 2020.
While the bears might thus say the plunge has far to go, the bulls would surely point out that during MSTR’s run since August 2020, the stock has suffered a number of similar scary short-to-medium term declines and has always resolved higher.
What would Soros say? Just possibly, he would remind that his Theory of Reflexivity taught that prices can go further (both upward and downward) than most could possibly expect.
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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens
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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.
Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000
Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.
Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”
Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.
Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.
The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.
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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years
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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.
Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.
«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.
Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.
It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.
Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.
It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.
«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.
After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.
Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court
UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.
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Pump.Fun’s Rumored AMM Pivot a ‘Strategic Miscalculation,’ Says Raydium
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Solana’s dominant automated market maker (AMM) Raydium hit back Monday on rumors that major volume driver Pump.Fun was preparing to launch its own AMM.
Abandoning Raydium whole hog would be a «strategic miscalculation» for the massively popular — and profitable — memecoin factory, core contributor InfraRAY said in a post on X. He cast doubt on the notion that Pump.Fun could replicate its success if it swaps Raydium out for in-house trading infrastructure.
Token investors dumped RAY en-masse this weekend after hawkeyed observers noticed Pump.Fun was apparently testing its own AMM, presumably with the intent to replace Raydium’s longstanding liquidity pools as its platform of choice. Such a move would shake up the economics of decentralized token trading on Solana.
Right now, Raydium, the chain’s largest AMM platform, captures trading fees generated by Pump.Fun memecoins that «graduated» from the launchpad to its own pools. The arrangement — in place since Pump.Fun’s earliest days — has been a financial boon for Raydium
But it also leaves Pump.Fun out of the long-term upside of the tokens its users create. That’s not to say it’s making nothing: Pump.Fun has amassed half a billion dollars on the fees it collects from early-stage token launches, one of crypto’s grandest warchest.
Raydium is currently generating over $1 million in fees every day from trading across all its liquidity pools, not just those of Pump.fun tokens. That said, over 30% of Raydium’s daily trading volume comes from Pump.fun tokens, according to a Dune dashboard, meaning a good share of its fees could dry up if Pump.Fun switches away.
«100%, revenue hit is real,» InfraRAY said in a message to CoinDesk. But he cautioned that the market’s 30% haircut on RAY tokens was «overblown» and partially due to SOL’s own weakness.
He said any pivot to a new AMM could hit myriad issues: inadequate supporting infrastructure, low demand for migrated tokens, a flop on volume at launch.
«I think that’s a real risk they are overlooking but I could be wrong,» InfraRAY said.
Pump.Fun co-founder Alon Cohen declined to comment.
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