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Why 2025 Will See the Comeback of the ICO
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Regulatory overhaul in America and a thawing of crypto antagonism globally in 2025 will usher in a new generation of decentralized capital formation, which was first popularized in 2017 as “ICOs” (initial coin offerings).
During the 2010s, crypto hadn’t settled on a productive use case for Bitcoin and altcoins until Ethereum smart contracts enabled early-stage teams to raise capital from supporters dispersed around the world. We saw Ethereum bootstrap a global decentralized computer which spawned DeFi, NFTs and various crypto primitives funded by less than $20 million raised from a global community.
Many other projects soon followed suit and we observed a new dynamic in which raising early-stage capital from a decentralized community almost always resulted in more value-add for the project and entrepreneurs than even the best, most well-intentioned venture capitalists could offer. With a decentralized investor group, entrepreneurs get free evangelists, beta testers and code contributors — i.e. free work that contributed to the project at hand. Also, the shorter liquidity time frame allowed for better risk-return profiles for early-stage investors.
Unfortunately, ICOs were slowly choked off and signalled as “not in compliance” with regulations that were never exactly spelled out. By 2020, they had slowed to a trickle and 88% of ICO tokens were trading at below issuance price.
Fast forward to 2025 and we can see the convergence of some important inputs that allow for the re-emergence of compelling investment opportunities, but with very different characteristics from ICO 1.0.
The ingredients of ICO 2.0
1. Updated regulatory stance
I predict that value accrual will be a fundamental part of the “why” of investing in tokens this time around. Entrepreneurs and investors in the space have matured and are ready to collectively admit that there is an expectation of profit with most tokens. In fact, one could argue that the obfuscation of how token holders would be compensated as a hand-wavey attempt to sidestep the Howey test was the primary problem the first time around.
KYC/AML will be focused on on-ramps and off-ramps such as exchanges and L2 bridges, and reasonably concentrate at the point of realization of gains back into fiat, which is the appropriate light touch that should satisfy reasonable regulators.
2. Market turnover
We are seeing the rapid decline of certain mid-market companies that could remake their business models by becoming community-led and decentralized. For example, mid-size media companies including newspapers and magazines are an obvious business model that could be greatly improved by the use of a token economy to drive citizen journalists towards greater professionalism.
3. Crypto’s progression
In 2017 we had ICO-click-races on very rough UI/UX interfaces, pre-launch SAFT (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens) rounds going to a handful of VCs and years of waiting until a live network launch. No one should be surprised then that the majority of ICO projects died. The Darwinian nature of any emerging technology is such that most will perish but the few that survive go on to create great value (spoiler alert: >90% of AI projects are going away as well).
Crypto now has decent on-boarding and good user-facing apps, and most importantly, the community has shown an uncanny ability to publicly call out nonsense and root out bad actors far better than government oversight ever has. The light of open decentralized ledgers is a particularly strong disinfectant.
Implications and predictions
So what does all this mean for the crypto community?
This new wave of decentralized capital formation will dwarf the approximately $20 billion of capital allocated in ICO 1.0 in 2017 and 2018. Over the coming years, we will see hundreds of billions in total capital formation across DeFi, NFTs, RWAs and a plethora of other crypto primitives.
M&A activity will represent a significant component of on-chain capital formation activity. Whether it is traditional businesses getting serious about crypto and buying up lost ground, like the Stripe-Bridge deal or EVM L2s joining forces as they recognize that only a handful will survive to be significant, we will see billions of dollars worth of M&A activity in the coming year.
In addition, mid-market Web2 and legacy companies will seek to reinvent their business model now that they can use token-incentivization under less hostile circumstances. We are seeing companies in energy, media, art and cellular communications get serious about token-incentivization to turn their value chain into an open marketplace, as well as rapidly acquire customers and use cheap(er) labour.
I am also optimistic that regenerative financing, blending a capitalistic mandate and philanthropic mandate, will find its place. And I am very excited about how crypto can change paradigms in bridging reasonable returns on capital with social goals in more compelling ways than we’ve seen to date.
I predict that we will see a range of novel ways to choose ICO participants, whether as a reward to LPs, relying on reputation based on on-chain activity or via the usage of certain proofs. The byproduct of this is that we will see better balance between retail and institutional/VC investors.
Finally, as always with crypto, we will continue to see relentless innovation and new ideas that give rise to more early stage funding opportunities. Many exciting new teams clearly see that AI’s natural transaction medium will be via crypto and are preparing accordingly. AI agents will bootstrap themselves with token-backed fundraising mechanisms that blend debt and equity principles.
Overall, I am optimistic that the crypto community has internalized the lessons learned along the stoic path of evolution to this point. As a litany of opportunities for capital allocation emerge next year, I encourage everyone in crypto to be vocal and open in highlighting due diligence red flags and bend the arc of this industry towards open access, fair launches and projects that are forthright in accruing value to token holders.
Fair launches are a superior path forward and we should all work towards more equitable and transparent fundraising practices. There are still many issues to resolve and there will be some spectacular failures as we move forward, but decentralized capital formation is crypto’s original killer app, and it deserves to continue to evolve.
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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens
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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.
Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000
Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.
Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”
Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.
Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.
The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.
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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years
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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.
Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.
«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.
Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.
It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.
Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.
It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.
«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.
After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.
Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court
UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.
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Pump.Fun’s Rumored AMM Pivot a ‘Strategic Miscalculation,’ Says Raydium
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Solana’s dominant automated market maker (AMM) Raydium hit back Monday on rumors that major volume driver Pump.Fun was preparing to launch its own AMM.
Abandoning Raydium whole hog would be a «strategic miscalculation» for the massively popular — and profitable — memecoin factory, core contributor InfraRAY said in a post on X. He cast doubt on the notion that Pump.Fun could replicate its success if it swaps Raydium out for in-house trading infrastructure.
Token investors dumped RAY en-masse this weekend after hawkeyed observers noticed Pump.Fun was apparently testing its own AMM, presumably with the intent to replace Raydium’s longstanding liquidity pools as its platform of choice. Such a move would shake up the economics of decentralized token trading on Solana.
Right now, Raydium, the chain’s largest AMM platform, captures trading fees generated by Pump.Fun memecoins that «graduated» from the launchpad to its own pools. The arrangement — in place since Pump.Fun’s earliest days — has been a financial boon for Raydium
But it also leaves Pump.Fun out of the long-term upside of the tokens its users create. That’s not to say it’s making nothing: Pump.Fun has amassed half a billion dollars on the fees it collects from early-stage token launches, one of crypto’s grandest warchest.
Raydium is currently generating over $1 million in fees every day from trading across all its liquidity pools, not just those of Pump.fun tokens. That said, over 30% of Raydium’s daily trading volume comes from Pump.fun tokens, according to a Dune dashboard, meaning a good share of its fees could dry up if Pump.Fun switches away.
«100%, revenue hit is real,» InfraRAY said in a message to CoinDesk. But he cautioned that the market’s 30% haircut on RAY tokens was «overblown» and partially due to SOL’s own weakness.
He said any pivot to a new AMM could hit myriad issues: inadequate supporting infrastructure, low demand for migrated tokens, a flop on volume at launch.
«I think that’s a real risk they are overlooking but I could be wrong,» InfraRAY said.
Pump.Fun co-founder Alon Cohen declined to comment.
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