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SOL’s Evolving Throwback Pattern Makes It Enticing for Breakout Traders: Godbole

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In financial markets, the best entry opportunity is often fleeting and easily missed. Now, Solana’s SOL is flashing a timely second chance for those looking to trade bullish breakouts.

The SOL price has surged over 7% this week to $193, rebounding off a former resistance-turned-support identified by the trendline connecting highs from March and July. This line, and the one joining April and August lows, define a large descending channel comprising prolonged range play from March to October.

The prices broke out of the channel in early November, confirming a bullish bias. SOL quickly climbed to over $260 before retracing to the breakout point last week.

The roundtrip is called a bullish «throwback pattern» by technical analysts.

«Throwbacks occur when prices break out upward and then ‘throw back’ to their break out level. The retracement is an excellent level at which to participate in the upward trend,» Charles D. Kirkpatrick II and Julie R. Dahlquist said in the third edition of «Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians.»

«They tend to be very short in time and distance but often provide a second, lesser-risk opportunity for a breakout trader to enter a position,» the authors write.

Breakout traders seek securities that have struggled to surpass a specific level. When the price finally breaks through, these traders enter the market, anticipating substantial movement in the direction of the breakout.

Trading breakouts demands constant monitoring of the markets and careful assessment of price and volume trends. Traders who miss the initial breakout often look to enter on a successful throwback, like SOL’s. These entries are generally perceived as low risk since the potential exit point or stop loss can be placed just below the breakout point.

The throwback seen above can be explained by behavioral aspects of trading, particularly prospect theory, which says that people are generally risk-averse when it comes to securing gains. In other words, when presented with potential profits, traders often book those gains rather than letting the winning trade run.

This tendency explains why the first post-breakout rally does not persist for long and prices usually fall back to the breakout point. It’s because traders who jumped in with the breakout are quick to take profit on a subsequent move higher.

That’s when it gets interesting. The traders who missed the first breakout may see the throwback as a second opportunity to get in. They go long at the breakout point, ensuring the support stays intact. This explains SOL’s bounce from the key level.

If SOL continues to rise, those who took profits soon after the initial breakout might regret doing so and take fresh longs, further adding to the bullish momentum. That’s how trends develop.

A similar throwback pattern played out perfectly in bitcoin (BTC) in the second half of 2023, setting the stage for a massive bull run.

Note that the bullish throwback pattern will be invalidated if the SOL’s price bounce fizzles, allowing for a retrace back into the channel.

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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens

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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.

Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000

Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.

Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.

“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”

Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”

Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.

Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.

The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.

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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years

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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.

«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.

Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.

It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.

Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.

It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.

«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.

After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.

Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court

UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.

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Pump.Fun’s Rumored AMM Pivot a ‘Strategic Miscalculation,’ Says Raydium

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Solana’s dominant automated market maker (AMM) Raydium hit back Monday on rumors that major volume driver Pump.Fun was preparing to launch its own AMM.

Abandoning Raydium whole hog would be a «strategic miscalculation» for the massively popular — and profitable — memecoin factory, core contributor InfraRAY said in a post on X. He cast doubt on the notion that Pump.Fun could replicate its success if it swaps Raydium out for in-house trading infrastructure.

Token investors dumped RAY en-masse this weekend after hawkeyed observers noticed Pump.Fun was apparently testing its own AMM, presumably with the intent to replace Raydium’s longstanding liquidity pools as its platform of choice. Such a move would shake up the economics of decentralized token trading on Solana.

Right now, Raydium, the chain’s largest AMM platform, captures trading fees generated by Pump.Fun memecoins that «graduated» from the launchpad to its own pools. The arrangement — in place since Pump.Fun’s earliest days — has been a financial boon for Raydium

But it also leaves Pump.Fun out of the long-term upside of the tokens its users create. That’s not to say it’s making nothing: Pump.Fun has amassed half a billion dollars on the fees it collects from early-stage token launches, one of crypto’s grandest warchest.

Raydium is currently generating over $1 million in fees every day from trading across all its liquidity pools, not just those of Pump.fun tokens. That said, over 30% of Raydium’s daily trading volume comes from Pump.fun tokens, according to a Dune dashboard, meaning a good share of its fees could dry up if Pump.Fun switches away.

«100%, revenue hit is real,» InfraRAY said in a message to CoinDesk. But he cautioned that the market’s 30% haircut on RAY tokens was «overblown» and partially due to SOL’s own weakness.

He said any pivot to a new AMM could hit myriad issues: inadequate supporting infrastructure, low demand for migrated tokens, a flop on volume at launch.

«I think that’s a real risk they are overlooking but I could be wrong,» InfraRAY said.

Pump.Fun co-founder Alon Cohen declined to comment.

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