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Record $14B Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms as Market Looks Highly Levered-Up
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Just when you thought the year-end couldn’t get any more intriguing, a significant options expiry is set to shake things up in this highly levered-up market.
Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a preset price at a later date. A call gives the right to buy, and a put confers the right to sell.
On Friday at 8:00 UTC, 146,000 bitcoin options contracts, valued at nearly $14 billion and sized at one BTC each, will expire on the crypto exchange Deribit. The notional amount represents 44% of the total open interest for all BTC options across different maturities, marking the largest expiry event ever on Deribit.
ETH options worth $3.84 billion will expire as well. ETH has dropped nearly 12% to $3,400 since the Fed meeting. Deribit accounts for over 80% of the global crypto options market.
Significant OI to expire ITM
As of writing, Friday’s settlement looked set to see $4 billion worth of BTC options, representing 28% of the total open interest of $14 billion, expire «in the money (ITM),» generating a profit for buyers. These positions may be squared off or rolled over (shifted) to the next expiry, potentially causing market volatility.
«I suspect a fair bit of open interest in BTC and ETH will be rolled into Jan. 31 and Mar. 28 expiries as the nearest liquidity anchors at the start of the new year,» Simranjeet Singh, portfolio manager and trader, at GSR said.
It should also be noted that the put-call open interest ratio for Friday’s expiry is 0.69, meaning seven put options are open for every 10 calls outstanding. A relatively higher open interest in calls, which provides an asymmetric upside to the buyer, indicates that leverage is skewed to the upside.
The issue, however, is that BTC’s bullish momentum has run out of steam since last Wednesday’s Fed decision, where Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out potential Fed purchases of the cryptocurrency while signaling fewer rate cuts for 2025.
BTC has since dropped over 10% to $95,000, according to CoinDesk indices data.
This means that traders with leveraged bullish bets are at risk of magnified losses. If they decide to throw in the towel and exit their positions, it could lead to more volatility.
«The previously dominant bullish momentum has stalled, leaving the market highly leveraged to the upside. This positioning increases the risk of a rapid snowball effect if a significant downside move occurs,» Deribit’s Chief Executive Officer Luuk Strijers told CoinDesk.
«All eyes are on this expiry, as it has the potential to shape the narrative heading into the new year,» Strijers added.
Directional uncertainty lingers
Key options-based metrics show there’s a noticeable lack of clarity in the market regarding potential price movements as the record expiry nears.
«The much-anticipated annual expiry is poised to conclude a remarkable year for the bulls. However, directional uncertainty lingers, highlighted by heightened volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol),» Strijers said.
The volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol) is a measure of fluctuations in the volatility of an asset. In other words, it measures how much the volatility or the degree of price turbulence in the asset itself fluctuates. If an asset’s volatility changes significantly over time, it has a high vol-of-vol.
A high vol-of-vol typically means increased sensitivity to news and economic data, leading to rapid changes in asset prices, necessitating aggressive position adjustment and hedging.
Market more bearish on ETH
How options due for expiry are currently priced reveals a more bearish outlook for ETH relative to BTC.
«Comparing the vol smiles of the [Friday’s] expiration between today and yesterday, we see that BTC’s smile is almost unmoved, while ETH’s implied vol of calls has dropped significantly,» Andrew Melville, research analyst at Block Scholes.
A volatility smile is a graphical representation of the implied volatility of options with the same expiration date but different strike prices. The drop in implied volatility for ETH calls means decreased demand for bullish bets, indicating a subdued outlook for Ethereum’s native token.
That’s also evident from the options skew, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for calls offering an asymmetric upside potential versus puts.
«After more than a week of poorer spot performance, ETH’s put-call skew ratio is more strongly bearish (2.06% in favour of puts compared to a more neutral 1.64% towards calls for BTC),» Melville noted.
Overall, end-of-year positioning reflects a moderately less bullish picture than we saw going into December, but even more starkly for ETH than BTC,» Melville added.
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Solana Plunges 14%, XRP, Dogecoin Down 8% as Crypto Market Sell-Off Worsens
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Crypto majors slid as much as 14% in the past 24 hours as a Monday sell-off extended into Tuesday amid generally bearish sentiment and the lack of actionable catalysts that may help support the market.
Solana’s SOL fell 14% — bringing 7-day losses to over 20% — while dogecoin (DOGE), xrp (XRP) and ether (ETH) fell more than 8%. Bitcoin lost the $92,000 level for the first time since late November, threatening a potential downside break of the multi-week consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000
Overall market capitalization fell 6.6%, while the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens, dropped more than 7%.
Traders said the current bearish sentiment could be overblown and macroeconomic decisions were key to support market growth.
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shouldn’t be trading this far below their all time highs,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said in a Telegram message. “On the U.S. side, inflation concerns and a pause in Fed rate cuts have kept markets down, but this could change as weak economic data released last week could spur Fed officials to take further action.”
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, mirrored the sentiment: “The ‘slowdown’ narrative will likely dominate the narrative in the near term, with stocks and bonds trading back in positive tandem with correlation nearing the highs of the past 12 months.”
Fan explained that the «bad data is now good» once again, as markets refocus their attention on Fed eases, and provide tailwinds to both gold and BTC in the near future.
Data released early this month showed, the widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 0.5% month-over-month in January, much more than the expected 0.3% gain, sending investors to prefer cash positions or risk-off bets until clear signs of a government intervention to boost the economy.
The U.S. CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in CPI readings tend to impact bitcoin, and the broader crypto market, as investors view the asset class as a hedge against inflation.
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FTT Briefly Spikes After Sam Bankman-Fried Tweets for First Time in 2 Years
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The token associated with defunct crypto exchange FTX surged briefly Monday night after Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and onetime CEO of the platform tweeted for the first time in two years.
Bankman-Fried, who was convicted on seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy in November 2023, is serving out a 25-year prison sentence. He’s currently detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn as his lawyers work through an appeal of his conviction. Still, his account on X (formerly Twitter) posted a 10-tweet thread about layoffs, seemingly referencing Elon Musk’s push to have federal employees email their work activities from the past week or risk resignations.
«I have a lot of sympathy for [government] employees: I, too, have not checked my email for the past few (hundred) days,» his thread began. FTT, the token associated with FTX, briefly spiked from roughly $1.55 to $2.07 after his tweets before falling back to around $1.78, according to CoinGecko.
Bankman-Fried does not have direct access to sites like X or email, but can send messages through the Corrlinks system, which lets prisoners in the U.S. communicate with others, a person familiar confirmed.
It was not immediately clear who might be posting the tweets on Bankman-Fried’s behalf.
Over the weekend, Musk, who according to court documents is a special government employee, tweeted that federal employees would have to tell the Office of Personnel and Management what they did last week, with a non-response being considered a resignation. While some federal agency heads or other leaders told their employees not to respond, others said their employees should reply.
It’s another step in Musk’s efforts to lay off broad swaths of the federal workforce at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Bankman-Fried’s tweets referenced layoffs and detailed circumstances that might cause an employer to fire employees.
«It isn’t the employee’s fault, when that happens. It isn’t their fault if their employer doesn’t really know what to do with them, or doesn’t really have anyone to effectively manage them. It isn’t their fault if internal politics lead their department to lose its way,» the thread said.
After Bankman-Fried’s tweets, another X account claiming without evidence to be him linked a contract address, claiming he received a pardon from Trump and now works for DOGE, the government entity that may or may not be led by Elon Musk. The linked token saw some immediate trading volume, according to on-chain data. The new, seemingly fake account has a label saying «it is a government or multilateral organization account,» suggesting a government agency account may have been compromised and renamed.
Read more: Private Jets, Political Cash Among $1B in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Forfeited Assets: Court
UPDATE (Feb. 25, 2025, 04:05 UTC): Adds information about SBF_DOGE account.
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Pump.Fun’s Rumored AMM Pivot a ‘Strategic Miscalculation,’ Says Raydium
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Solana’s dominant automated market maker (AMM) Raydium hit back Monday on rumors that major volume driver Pump.Fun was preparing to launch its own AMM.
Abandoning Raydium whole hog would be a «strategic miscalculation» for the massively popular — and profitable — memecoin factory, core contributor InfraRAY said in a post on X. He cast doubt on the notion that Pump.Fun could replicate its success if it swaps Raydium out for in-house trading infrastructure.
Token investors dumped RAY en-masse this weekend after hawkeyed observers noticed Pump.Fun was apparently testing its own AMM, presumably with the intent to replace Raydium’s longstanding liquidity pools as its platform of choice. Such a move would shake up the economics of decentralized token trading on Solana.
Right now, Raydium, the chain’s largest AMM platform, captures trading fees generated by Pump.Fun memecoins that «graduated» from the launchpad to its own pools. The arrangement — in place since Pump.Fun’s earliest days — has been a financial boon for Raydium
But it also leaves Pump.Fun out of the long-term upside of the tokens its users create. That’s not to say it’s making nothing: Pump.Fun has amassed half a billion dollars on the fees it collects from early-stage token launches, one of crypto’s grandest warchest.
Raydium is currently generating over $1 million in fees every day from trading across all its liquidity pools, not just those of Pump.fun tokens. That said, over 30% of Raydium’s daily trading volume comes from Pump.fun tokens, according to a Dune dashboard, meaning a good share of its fees could dry up if Pump.Fun switches away.
«100%, revenue hit is real,» InfraRAY said in a message to CoinDesk. But he cautioned that the market’s 30% haircut on RAY tokens was «overblown» and partially due to SOL’s own weakness.
He said any pivot to a new AMM could hit myriad issues: inadequate supporting infrastructure, low demand for migrated tokens, a flop on volume at launch.
«I think that’s a real risk they are overlooking but I could be wrong,» InfraRAY said.
Pump.Fun co-founder Alon Cohen declined to comment.
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