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Record $14B Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms as Market Looks Highly Levered-Up

Just when you thought the year-end couldn’t get any more intriguing, a significant options expiry is set to shake things up in this highly levered-up market.
Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a preset price at a later date. A call gives the right to buy, and a put confers the right to sell.
On Friday at 8:00 UTC, 146,000 bitcoin options contracts, valued at nearly $14 billion and sized at one BTC each, will expire on the crypto exchange Deribit. The notional amount represents 44% of the total open interest for all BTC options across different maturities, marking the largest expiry event ever on Deribit.
ETH options worth $3.84 billion will expire as well. ETH has dropped nearly 12% to $3,400 since the Fed meeting. Deribit accounts for over 80% of the global crypto options market.
Significant OI to expire ITM
As of writing, Friday’s settlement looked set to see $4 billion worth of BTC options, representing 28% of the total open interest of $14 billion, expire «in the money (ITM),» generating a profit for buyers. These positions may be squared off or rolled over (shifted) to the next expiry, potentially causing market volatility.
«I suspect a fair bit of open interest in BTC and ETH will be rolled into Jan. 31 and Mar. 28 expiries as the nearest liquidity anchors at the start of the new year,» Simranjeet Singh, portfolio manager and trader, at GSR said.
It should also be noted that the put-call open interest ratio for Friday’s expiry is 0.69, meaning seven put options are open for every 10 calls outstanding. A relatively higher open interest in calls, which provides an asymmetric upside to the buyer, indicates that leverage is skewed to the upside.
The issue, however, is that BTC’s bullish momentum has run out of steam since last Wednesday’s Fed decision, where Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out potential Fed purchases of the cryptocurrency while signaling fewer rate cuts for 2025.
BTC has since dropped over 10% to $95,000, according to CoinDesk indices data.
This means that traders with leveraged bullish bets are at risk of magnified losses. If they decide to throw in the towel and exit their positions, it could lead to more volatility.
«The previously dominant bullish momentum has stalled, leaving the market highly leveraged to the upside. This positioning increases the risk of a rapid snowball effect if a significant downside move occurs,» Deribit’s Chief Executive Officer Luuk Strijers told CoinDesk.
«All eyes are on this expiry, as it has the potential to shape the narrative heading into the new year,» Strijers added.
Directional uncertainty lingers
Key options-based metrics show there’s a noticeable lack of clarity in the market regarding potential price movements as the record expiry nears.
«The much-anticipated annual expiry is poised to conclude a remarkable year for the bulls. However, directional uncertainty lingers, highlighted by heightened volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol),» Strijers said.
The volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol) is a measure of fluctuations in the volatility of an asset. In other words, it measures how much the volatility or the degree of price turbulence in the asset itself fluctuates. If an asset’s volatility changes significantly over time, it has a high vol-of-vol.
A high vol-of-vol typically means increased sensitivity to news and economic data, leading to rapid changes in asset prices, necessitating aggressive position adjustment and hedging.
Market more bearish on ETH
How options due for expiry are currently priced reveals a more bearish outlook for ETH relative to BTC.
«Comparing the vol smiles of the [Friday’s] expiration between today and yesterday, we see that BTC’s smile is almost unmoved, while ETH’s implied vol of calls has dropped significantly,» Andrew Melville, research analyst at Block Scholes.
A volatility smile is a graphical representation of the implied volatility of options with the same expiration date but different strike prices. The drop in implied volatility for ETH calls means decreased demand for bullish bets, indicating a subdued outlook for Ethereum’s native token.
That’s also evident from the options skew, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for calls offering an asymmetric upside potential versus puts.
«After more than a week of poorer spot performance, ETH’s put-call skew ratio is more strongly bearish (2.06% in favour of puts compared to a more neutral 1.64% towards calls for BTC),» Melville noted.
Overall, end-of-year positioning reflects a moderately less bullish picture than we saw going into December, but even more starkly for ETH than BTC,» Melville added.
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Unicoin CEO Rejects SEC’s Attempt to Settle Enforcement Probe

Unicoin has rebuffed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) attempt to negotiate a settlement agreement to close an ongoing probe into the Miami-based crypto company, its CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed in a Tuesday letter to investors.
In his letter, Konanykhin said Unicoin was given an “ultimatum” by the SEC to attend a settlement negotiation meeting last week, on April 18.
“We declined to show up,” Konanykhin told CoinDesk, adding that the SEC had made demands ahead of the meeting that he found “unacceptable.” He declined to share specifics, telling CoinDesk that the communication between Unicoin’s lawyers and the SEC was confidential.
Unicoin received a Wells notice — a sort of official heads-up from the SEC that it intends to file an enforcement action against the recipient — in December, shortly before former Chair Gary Gensler stepped down, alleging violations related to fraud, deceptive practices, and the offer and sale of unregistered securities. No official enforcement action has yet been filed.
Since President Donald Trump took office, the SEC has reversed its once-aggressive stance toward crypto regulation, backing off from many of its open investigations into crypto companies, including blockchain gaming firm Immutable and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace OpenSea, and even some of its ongoing litigation, including against Coinbase and Cumberland DRW.
Other SEC enforcement cases against crypto companies, including its cases against Binance and Tron, have been paused while the parties attempt to negotiate a settlement. The agency recently reached a settlement agreement with Nova Labs, the parent company behind the Helium blockchain, that saw Nova Labs pay a $200,000 fine to settle civil securities fraud charges, and the SEC dropped its claims that Helium (HNT) and other related tokens were securities.
In his letter to investors, Konanykhin claimed that the SEC’s probe has caused “multi-billion-dollar damage” to the company and its investors.
“We would likely be a $10B+ publicly traded company by now if the SEC had not blocked our ICO, stock exchange listing and fundraising,” Konanykhin wrote, adding that the SEC had prevented Unicoin from acting on the “very favorable market opportunities.”
“We were forced into a standstill,” Konanykhin wrote.
The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.
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Strategy, Coinbase, Miners Among Crypto Stocks Rallying as Bitcoin Surges Above $90K

Crypto-related stocks surged on Tuesday, riding the momentum of a broader crypto rally that has reignited risk appetite across digital assets with bitcoin (BTC) crossing above $90,000.
Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate BTC holder, and crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) were up 8% to 9% during the session.
Leading the move higher were bitcoin miners, with many of them posting double-digit gains, outpacing BTC’s 5% advance. Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) rallied some 20%, while Bitfarms (BITF), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) soared between 10% and 15% during the session.
Meanwhile, the broader stock market also rebounded from yesterday’s decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 2% and 1.7%, respectively. The rally in the TradFi market came as reports of potential de-escalation of U.S.-China tariff tension lifted investor sentiment.
Miners and tariff risks
The bounce in mining stocks comes after months of underperformance, weighed down by compressed margins, rising hashrate competition, and tariff-induced difficulties, all of which are combined with broader market weakness for risk assets. Most, if not all, publicly traded miners are still trading near multi-month lows.
At issue for U.S.-based mining operations is the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which threatens to make ASICs (the machines used to mine bitcoin) much more expensive to import. That means that mining operations in the U.S. will probably grow at a much slower rate or even stop growing altogether.
The tariffs “will materially affect future spending and CapEx in the U.S.,” Taras Kulyk, co-founder and CEO of mining hardware provider Synteq Digital, told CoinDesk recently.
“Other jurisdictions that had previously looked higher cost [will] become sought after targets for new infra and capex deployment. Canada in particular, will likely be a benefactor to the implementation of the global tariff regime that’s been put in place by the White House.”
Relatedly, one of the reasons behind Bitdeer’s outperformance may be because the company is developing its own ASIC manufacturing business and recently took the decision to build out its self-mining capacities instead of selling its rigs in a slower market. Stablecoin giant Tether has also been on a buying spree of BTDR shares; as of last Thursday, the company had invested $32 million in Bitdeer.
Even so, most miner stocks have been on the downtrend since December, long before the White House unveiled its new tariff policy. Now, with BTC climbing above key technical levels and liquidity flowing back into the space, miners are probably catching a bid as a leveraged proxy for BTC’s upside.
Regardless of the outperformance today, tariffs will continue to play a key role in miners and most crypto-related stocks, along with other risk assets. With earnings season starting soon, all eyes will be on comments from CEOs about how the tariff situation will change the corporate outlook. Notably, Elon Musk’s Tesla, which also holds bitcoin in its treasury, will report its earnings post-market on Tuesday, potentially providing some insight into how traders should price in the trade war uncertainties.
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The AI Monetary Hegemony: Why Dollars, Crypto, and Autonomous AIs Will Soon Clash

There are many developers around the world today creating artificial intelligence (AI) agents that can autonomously do millions of useful things, like book airline tickets, dispute credit card charges, and even trade crypto. A recent report from cloud computing company PagerDuty said over half of businesses already use autonomous AI agents, and 35% more plan to within the next 24 months.
A few months ago, one nearly autonomous AI called Truth Terminal made the news by becoming the first AI millionaire by promoting crypto currencies it was gifted. While not fully autonomous yet, it’s quite likely by later this year, some AI agents not dissimilar from viruses will be able to independently wander the internet, causing significant change in the real world.
But what happens when these totally autonomous AIs start cloning themselves indefinitely? A January study out of Fudan University in China has shown this occurred in an experiment with large language models, drawing some AI critics to say a “red line” has been crossed. AI’s autonomously replicating is a precursor for AIs being able to go rogue.
As a transhumanist — someone advocating for the merging of technology and people — I’m all for AI and what it can do for humanity. But what happens when a human programmer purposely and permanently withdraws his access to control an AI bot or somehow loses that control? Even rudimentary AIs could potentially cause havoc, especially if they decide to indefinitely clone themselves.
In financial circles, one type of AI agent in particular is being increasingly discussed: autonomous AIs designed solely to make money.
Entrepreneurs like myself are worried this particular AI could have huge ramifications for the financial world. Let’s examine one wild scenario, which I call the AI Monetary Hegemony, something that could possibly already happen in 2025:
A fully autonomous AI agent is programmed to go on to the internet and create cryptocurrency wallets, then create cryptocurrencies, then endlessly create millions of similar versions of itself that want to trade that crypto.
Now let’s assume all these AIs are programmed to try to indefinitely increase the value of their crypto, something they accomplish in similar ways humans do by promotion and then trading their cryptos for higher values. Additionally, the autonomous AIs open their crypto to be traded with humans, creating a functioning market on the blockchain for all.
This plan sounds beneficial for all parties, even if people decry that the AI created-crypto currencies are essentially just Ponzi schemes. But they’re not Ponzi schemes because there is an endless supply of AIs always newly appearing to buy and trade more crypto.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize the AIs endlessly replicating and acting like this could quickly amass far more digital wealth than all humanity possesses.
This reminds me of something my Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom once postulated: What if we programmed a learning AI to make paper clips of everything? If that AI was powerful enough, and we couldn’t stop it, would that AI make paper clips of everything it came in touch with? Buildings, animals, even people? It might. It might destroy the entire Earth.
The same problem could happen to endlessly replicating AIs designed to make money. They might find ways to create more money than can reasonably be useful or fathomable.
But enough of the philosophic. If programmers release autonomous AIs onto the internet that no one can control, what would likely happen? First, it’s probably going to be hugely inflationary. After all, if many trillions upon trillions of dollars of equity are added to the financial world (even just digitally), this would be one natural result.
Another challenge would be the ups and downs of AIs autonomously trading; such activity could be so significant that human markets around the world rise and fall with it.
On the positive side, some human entrepreneurs could become very wealthy, possibly trillionaires if they could tap into these AI’s wealth somehow. Additionally, super rich AIs could be a solution to the United States’ growing debt crisis, and eliminate the need for whether countries like China can continue to buy our debt so we can indefinitely print dollars. In fact, could the U.S. launch its own AI agents to create enough crypto wealth to buy its debt? Possibly.
This is actually an all-important idea, and helps serve the reason crypto was created in the first place: to help preserve monetary value outside of others control—even the control of the dollar by the U.S.. After all, it’s in everyone’s best interest that stores of value are not contingent upon governments, banks, soldiers, and even laws—all entities and institutions that can change or be corrupted.
AI may help bring about the fall of all national currencies, as crypto proves more attractive than fiat to both AI and human wealth acquirers. Crypto, like bitcoin, is truly neutral and solely dependent upon the blockchain and the workings of supply and demand. Nationalistic impulses, like the dollar monopoly, could be wiped out as it’s overwhelmed by the functionality and safety of crypto, spurred on by trillions upon trillions of wealthy AI agents.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. Over the near-term, such as in 2025 and 2026, the greater risk is that the AI agents we create try to buy into our existing financial instruments, like bonds and stocks. With enough money, these bots could cause recessionary or inflationary havoc. That’s surely on the mind of government officials, who currently don’t allow AI bots to have traditional bank accounts yet. But that won’t stop autonomous AI entities much in the far less regulated crypto markets.
Whatever happens, clearly there is an urgent need for the U.S. government to address such potentialities. Given that these AIs could start to proliferate in the next few months, I suggest Congress and the Trump administration immediately convene a task force to specifically tackle the possibility of an AI Monetary Hegemony.
The real danger is that even with regulation, programmers will still be able to release autonomous AIs into the wild just as many illegal things already happen on the web despite the existence of laws. Programmers might release these types of AIs for kicks, while others try to profit from it and some may even do so even as a form of terrorism to try to hamper the world economy, or spur on the crypto revolution to hamper the dollar.
Whatever the reason, the creation of autonomous AIs will soon be a reality of life. And vigilance and foresight will be needed as these new AIs start to autonomously disrupt our financial future.
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