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Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, Bitcoin Slips Below $104K on Hawkish Tone

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The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%- 4.50% range, its third consecutive easing move this year and now marking a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts since September.

Market participants had fully expected Wednesday’s move by the central bank, but recent data had shown continued solid economic growth and perky inflation. This turned the focus today to the policy statement, updated economic projections and the upcoming press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell for clues about the Fed’s thinking on future policy actions.

The Fed’s quarterly economic projections — which include the «dot plot» indicating where the central bank expects the Fed funds rate to land over time — reveal that policymakers expect the Fed funds rate to decline to 3.9% by year-end 2025 or another 50 basis points in rate cuts next year. That’s higher than the 3.4% projected in September, signaling a less dovish monetary policy in 2025.

Already lower in the session, the price of bitcoin (BTC) traded slightly above $104,000 in the minutes following the announcement. The S&P 500 index also fell to a session low on Wednesday.

“I think the biggest headache for the Fed right now is the fact that financial conditions have still tightened despite the Fed cutting rates,» Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk prior to today’s action. «Long bond yields and mortgage rates have increased since September and the dollar has appreciated which also implies a tightening in financial conditions.»

“A continued appreciation of the US dollar also poses a macro risk for bitcoin since dollar appreciation is associated with global money supply contraction as well which tends to be bad for bitcoin and other crypto assets,» Dragosch continued. «In fact, Fed net liquidity continues to decrease. Tightening liquidity and strong dollar is also the biggest risk for BTC in my view … On the other hand, on-chain factors for BTC continue to be very supportive, in particular the ongoing decline in exchange balances which supports the hypothesis that the BTC supply deficit continues to intensify.»

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm ET, which will provide further signals about the U.S. central bank’s intentions.

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Ether on the Verge of ‘Death Cross’ Pattern; SOL, DOGE, BNB Below 200-Day Average

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USDe Issuer Ethena Labs Integrates Chaos Labs’ Edge Proof of Reserves Oracles to Strengthen Risk Management

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Ethena Labs has integrated Chaos Labs’ data authenticity technology, Edge Proof oracles, to strengthen the risk management framework for its synthetic dollar token USDe.

Edge oracles will independently verify the total dollar value of the USDe’s reserves and the reserve coverage of USDe’s supply and confirm that reserves are governance-approved and delta-neutral. Chaos Labs shared the announcement exclusively with CoinDesk.

USDe, a synthetic stablecoin, maintains a soft peg with the U.S. dollar through an automated delta-hedging strategy that shorts bitcoin and ether perpetual futures to offset changes in the prices of these cryptocurrencies.

The synthetic stablecoin experienced volatility over the weekend, falling to 0.982 against tether and 0.988 against USDC, per Kaiko, amid fears that the protocol has multi-million dollar exposure to Bybit’s ether (ETH) derivatives market. The exchange was hacked late Friday, with a malicious entity draining over $1 billion in ether.

The so-called de-peg, however, was short-lived as Ethena assured investors that all assets backing USDe were held off-exchange and its reserve fund was more than enough to compensate for any losses from the Bybit exploit.

The integration with Chaos Labs adds another layer of credibility to USDe’s reserves, ensuring they stay secure and transparent.

The Edge Proof of Reserves (PoR) oracles will constantly monitor the reserve levels of tokens and check the collateral backing them. This is done by smoothly integrating off-chain data from custodians and centralized exchanges into the on-chain environment, ensuring scalable and robust support for institutional-grade applications.

The integration also provides automated alerts to notify users of any data anomalies or if reserve levels fall below the required thresholds. Verified data is publicly displayed on Ethena’s transparency page and attestor interfaces, keeping stakeholders informed.

«This integration ensures continuous, independent verification of reserves, fostering greater transparency and security for all users. By leveraging real-time, tamper-resistant data, Ethena reinforces its commitment to a robust and reliable synthetic dollar,» the announcement said.

Chaos Labs’ Edge oracle leverages zero-knowledge proofs to ensure security and privacy while providing real-time and transparent data verification, including for reserves held off-chain or across different blockchains.

These oracles have secured over $70 billion in volume, delivering risk management to decentralized finance (DeFi) giants like AAVE, Jupiter, GMX, and Tether.

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Binance Open Bitcoin Futures Bets Jump By Over $1B as BTC Chalks Out Bearish Candlestick Pattern: Godbole

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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $92,000 during the overnight trade, revisiting levels that have proven resilient multiple times since December. However, the latest move comes with a notable uptick in perpetual futures open interest and price action that indicates seller dominance.

The number of open futures bets or open interest in the BTC/USDT pair trading on Binance rose by roughly 12,000 BTC (worth over $1 billion) as BTC’s price fell from $96,000 to under $92,000, according to data tracked by Coinglass.

An uptick in open interest alongside a price decline is said to represent an influx of bearish short positions. In other words, traders likely opened fresh shorts as the price dropped, perhaps in anticipation of an extended sell-off.

The cumulative volume delta (CVD) across both futures and spot markets on the exchange was already negative and has deepened further with the price drop, indicating that selling pressure has outpaced buying activity.

The CVD measures the net capital flows into the market, where positive and rising figures indicate buyer dominance, while negative values reflect increased selling pressure.

BTC chalks out bearish marubozu candle

Bitcoin dropped 4.86% on Monday with sellers dominating the price action throughout the day.

That’s reflected in the shape of Monday’s candlestick, which features negligible upper and lower shadows and a prominent red body. In other words, opening and closing prices are almost the same, a sign buyers had little say in the price action.

Technical analysts categorize this as a bearish marubozu pattern. The appearance of the bearish candlestick while prices hover below key 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) may embolden sellers, potentially leading to deeper losses.

Support (S) is seen near $89,200, the Jan. 13 low, followed by the 200-day SMA at $81,661. On the flip side, the Feb. 21 high of around $99,520 is the level to beat (R).

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