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Bitcoin Traders No Longer Chasing Record Price Rally Like Before, Options Data Show

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While bitcoin (BTC) continues to reach new lifetime highs, the latest options market trend indicates that traders aren’t chasing the uptrend with the same zeal as before.

On Monday, BTC’s price rose above $107,000, surpassing the previous peak on Dec. 5 and taking the cumulative post-U.S.-election gain to over 50%, CoinDesk data show.

The rally follows President-elect Donald Trump’s assurance that the U.S. will build a bitcoin strategic reserve similar to its strategic oil reserve. Analysts expect the winning streak to continue next year, with prices ranging between $150K to $200K by the end of the following year.

However, the current pricing of options trading on Deribit indicates that traders aren’t chasing the rally like they used to, signaling a more cautious outlook for the short term.

At press time, the 25-delta risk reversal for options expiring on Friday was negative, indicating the relative richness of put options that provide protection against price drops. Puts expiring on Dec. 27 were trading at a slight premium to calls, while the risk reversals extending to the end of March end expiry demonstrated a call bias of less than three volatility points.

That starkly contrasts the trend we’ve observed over the past few weeks, where traders aggressively chased new price peaks, driving short-term and long-term call biases to over four or five volatility points. In fact, short-term risk reversals frequently displayed a stronger call bias than their longer-term counterparts.

The latest block trades coming through on Deribit, as tracked by Amberdata, also show a bearish lean. The top trade so far today has been a short position in the Dec. 27 expiry call at the $108,000 strike followed by long positions in the $100,000 strike puts expiring on Dec. 27 and Jan. 3.

The cautious sentiment could be due to concerns that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve will signal fewer or slower rate hikes for 2025 while delivering the widely expected 25 basis points rate cut. Such an outcome could accelerate hardening of the bond yields, strengthening the dollar and denting the case for investing in riskier assets. Perhaps, sophisticated BTC traders are positioning for a correction.

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CoinDesk Weekly Recap: EigenLayer, Kraken, Coinbase, AWS

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Following last week’s tariff-caused drama, this was a relatively quiet week in crypto. Bitcoin remained stable around $84k. The CoinDesk 20, which tracks about 80% of the market, was up about 4% in the last seven days — i.e. nothing historic.

Still, plenty happened. On Tuesday, much of crypto went offline because of a tech issue at AWS, showing how the decentralized economy isn’t always that decentralized. Shaurya Malwa reported the news early. Bitcoin and other major cryptos slipped on bad news for Nvidia, Omkar Godbole reported.

Mantra, a project focused on real world assets, lost 90% of its value. Explanations varied (the company said it was due to “force liquidations” exchanges).

Meanwhile, EigenLayer, a restaking leader, rolled out a “slashing” feature meant to address security concerns (Sam Kessler reported). OKX, a major exchange, announced plans to set up in California following a $500 million settlement with the SEC over claims it operated previously in the U.S. without a money transmitter license. Cheyenne Ligon had that story.

In less good news, Kraken laid off “hundreds” of staff ahead of an expected IPO. And Coinbase became embroiled in a “front running controversy” linked to a curiously named token on its Base L2. Privacy advocates reacted with alarm to rumors that Binance was about to delist Zcash following a long decline in the value of privacy coins.

In D.C. news, Jesse Hamilton reported on a new wave of crypto lobbyists flooding the capital. Some asked if there are now too many trade groups and whether they really all could be effective.

Friends With Benefits, a buzzy social club for creative technologists, launched a new program to build Web3 products for music, film, publishing and other fun activities. (I wrote that one.)

Of course, there was plenty happening in the economy and markets (Trump’s disgust for Fed chair Powell fed into the unease). But, in crypto, it was pretty much business as usual. Fortunes won, fortunes lost, fortunes deferred.

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The Case for User-Owned AI

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Who truly controls your AI assistant? That’s a question most people haven’t asked yet. Today, millions rely on digital assistants, from voice-controlled devices to smart bots embedded in tools like Google Workspace or ChatGPT. These systems help us write, organize, search, and even think. However, the vast majority of them are rented. We don’t own the intelligence we depend on. That means someone else gets to control it.

If your digital assistant disappears tomorrow, can you do anything about it? What if the company behind it changes the terms, restricts functionality, or monetizes your data in ways you didn’t expect? These are not theoretical concerns. They’re already happening, and they point to a future we should actively shape.

David Minarsch is a speaker at Consensus 2025 in Toronto May 14-16.

As these agents become embedded in everything from our finances to our workflows and homes, the stakes around ownership become much higher. Renting is probably fine for low-stakes tasks, like a language model that helps you write emails. However, when your AI acts for you, makes decisions with your money, or manages critical parts of your life, ownership isn’t optional. It’s essential.

What Today’s AI Business Model Implies for Users

AI as we know it is built on a rental economy. You pay for access, monthly subscriptions, or pay-per-use APIs, and in exchange, you get the “illusion” of control. However, behind the scenes, platform providers hold all the power. They choose what AI model to serve, what your AI can do, how it responds, and whether you get to keep using it.

Let’s take a common example: a business team using an AI-powered assistant to automate tasks or generate insights. That assistant might live inside a centralized SaaS tool. It might be powered by a closed model hosted on someone else’s server — and running on their GPUs. It might even be trained on your company’s own data — data you no longer fully own once uploaded.

Now, imagine that the provider begins prioritizing monetization, like Google Search does with its advertising-driven results. Just as search results are heavily influenced by paid placements and commercial interests, the same will likely happen with large language models (LLMs). The assistant you relied on changes, skewing responses to benefit the provider’s business model, and there’s nothing you can do. You never had true control to begin with.

This isn’t just a business risk; it’s a personal one, too. In Italy, ChatGPT was temporarily banned in 2023 due to privacy concerns. That left thousands without access overnight. In a world where people are building increasingly personal workflows around AI, this weakness is unacceptable.

On the issue of privacy, when you rent an AI, you often upload sensitive data, sometimes unknowingly. That data can be logged, used for retraining, or even monetized. Centralized AI is opaque by design, and with geopolitical tensions rising and regulations shifting fast, depending entirely on someone else’s infrastructure is a growing liability.

What It Means to Truly Own Your Agent

Unlike passive AI models, agents are dynamic systems that can take independent actions. Ownership means controlling an agent’s core logic, decision-making parameters, and data processing. Imagine an agent that can autonomously manage resources, track expenses, set budgets, and make financial decisions on your behalf.

This naturally leads us to explore advanced infrastructures like Web3 and neobanking systems, which offer programmable ways to manage digital assets. An owned agent can operate independently within clear, user-defined boundaries, transforming AI from a responsive tool to a proactive, personalized system that truly works for you.

With true ownership, you know exactly what model you’re using and can change the underlying model if needed. You can upgrade or customize your agent without waiting on a provider. You can pause it, duplicate it, or transfer it to another device. And, most importantly, you can use it without leaking data or relying on a single centralized gatekeeper.

At Olas, we’ve been building toward this future with Pearl, an AI agent app store realised as a desktop app that allows users to run autonomous AI agents with just one click while retaining full ownership. Today, Pearl contains a number of use cases targeting primarily Web3 users to abstract the complexity of crypto interactions, with an increasing focus on Web2 use cases. Agents in Pearls hold their own wallets, operate using open-source AI models, and act independently on the user’s behalf.

When you launch Pearl, it’s like entering an app store for agents. You can pick one to manage your DeFi portfolio. You can run another that handles research or content generation. These agents don’t need constant prompting; they’re autonomous and yours. Go from paying for the agent you rent to earning from the agent you own.

We designed Pearl for crypto-native users who already understand the importance of owning their keys. However, the idea of taking self-custody of not just your funds but also your AI scales far beyond DeFi. Imagine an agent that controls your home automation, complements your social interactions, or coordinates multiple tools at work. If those agents are rented, you don’t fully control them. If you don’t fully control them, you’re increasingly outsourcing core parts of your life.

This movement is not just about tools; it’s about agency. If we fail to shift toward open, user-owned AI, we risk re-centralizing power in the hands of a few dominant players. But if we succeed, we unlock a new kind of freedom, where intelligence is not rented but truly yours, with each human complemented by an “army” of software agents.

It’s not just idealism. It’s good security. Open-source AI is auditable and peer-reviewed. Closed models are black boxes. If a humanoid robot is living in your home one day, do you want the code running it to be proprietary and controlled by a foreign cloud provider? Or do you want to be able to know exactly what it’s doing?

We have a choice: We can keep renting, trusting, and hoping nothing breaks, or we can take ownership of our tools, data, decisions, and futures.

User-owned AI isn’t just the better option. It’s the only one that respects the intelligence of the person using it.

READ MORE: Olas’ Mech Marketplace Enables AI Agents to Hire Each Other for Help

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Crypto Exchange Kraken Launches FX Perpetual Futures, Offers 24/7 Trading in Forex Majors

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Crypto exchange Kraken has launched FX perpetual futures, expanding into traditional markets with round-the-clock trading for major forex pairs, the company said in a blog post Friday.

The first contracts, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, are now live on Kraken Pro, with more to follow.

Unlike standard forex products, FX perps have no expiry and operate 24/7, mirroring crypto futures.

With FX perps, Kraken is doubling down on serving institutional and professional traders looking for deeper exposure to fiat markets through a crypto-native platform, the company said.

Crypto and traditional financial markets are increasingly converging.

Kraken recently launched commission-free trading for U.S.-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), opening access to traditional financial markets from within the same platform it uses for cryptocurrencies and positioning itself to compete more directly with trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD).

«Investors increasingly expect a unified trading experience that spans crypto, FX, and equities. With our recent U.S. equities launch and the addition of FX perpetuals, Kraken is delivering a comprehensive platform designed for today’s multi-asset trader,» said Alexia Theodorou, head of derivatives at Kraken, in emailed comments.

Kraken clients traded $5.4B in FX spot volume year-to-date, with $3.5B of it in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The exchange is teaming up with Mastercard to let crypto holders in the U.K. and Europe spend their digital assets at more than 150 million merchants worldwide, Mastercard said earlier this month

Read more: Kraken Teams Up With Mastercard to Introduce Crypto Debit Cards

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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